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Cannon Trading Futures Blog: Daily Support and Resistance Levels

Thursday, November 02, 2006

Trading levels and reports for Nov. 3rd

 
*To be removed, please reply with remove daytrading in subject line
 
Dear Trader,
 
Tomorrow's report is a market mover:
 

The Employment Report

Briefing.com Forecast:  135K payrolls, 4.7% unemployment rate, 0.4% hourly earnings, 33.8 hour workweek.

  • Market Consensus:   125K payrolls, 4.6% unemployment rate, 0.3% hourly earnings, 33.8 hour workweek.

Key Factors

  • Nonfarm Payrolls:  135K expected growth compares to 121K 3 month and 118K 6 month averages.
  • Little bit of bounce over the last few months with August at 188K and September at 51K.
  • Housing not showing any direct effects.  Last 3 months of positive growth in construction expected to be repeated.
  • Manufacturing is bleeding from both durables and nondurables.  Another decline expected in Oct.
  • Private service payrolls of 120K expected after a 3 month average of 111K.
  • Retail is the surprise drag in services with the only gain in 6 months (1K in July).  6 month total -111K.
  • Professional/business payrolls expected to bounce back after small 12K gain in September.
  • 25K rise in Government payrolls expected after the -8K decline.  
  • Unemployment Rate:  Expected to rise to 4.7% from the cyclical low of 4.58% in September.
  • Another decline spells trouble for earnings and unit labor costs.
  • Trends are softening with employment showing a 12 mo gain of  2.4 mln, unemployment -0.7 mln. 
  • 5% rate generally considered to be inflation neutral full employment (NAIRU).  
  • Hourly Earnings:   An 0.4% gain expected after two months of 0.2% gains.
  • Leaves a lower 3.9% yoy growth rate from 4% five year high in August and September.
  • The lift in unit labor costs (5% yoy) add increased Fed sensitivity to pace of earnings growth.
  • Earnings track production workers as broader wage and salary growth shows stronger 7% yoy gain.
  • Average Workweek:   To hold at 33.8 hours -- been there for 3 of the last 6 months.
  • Indicator for real time labor need (prior to hiring/layoffs). 
  • Fall off from June/July 33.9 hours consistent with weaker labor demand seen in weak payroll growth
  • Importance (A-F): This release merits an A.
  • Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
  • Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior month
  • Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.
    •  
    LEVELS:
     
    Contract (Dec.. 2006)  SP500 (big & Mini) Nasdaq100 (big & Mini) Dow Jones (big & Mini) Mini Russell
    Resistance 3 1380.30 1740.00 12132.00 763.97
    Resistance 2 1376.90 1731.50 12102.00 760.23
    Resistance 1 1374.10 1724.00 12069.00 756.22
    Pivot 1370.70 1715.50 12039.00 752.48
    Support 1 1367.90 1708.00 12006.00 748.47
    Support 2 1364.50 1699.50 11976.00 744.73
    Support 3 1361.70 1692.00 11943.00 740.72
             
    Contract (Dec. 2006) Dec. Gold Euro Dec. Ten Years  Dec. US Bonds 
    Resistance 3 643.0333 1.2871 108 22/32 113 12/32
    Resistance 2 635.6667 1.2843 108 19/32 113  7/32
    Resistance 1 631.7333 1.2824 108 14/32 113     
    Pivot 624.3667 1.2796 108 11/32 112 27/32
    Support 1 620.4333 1.2777 108  6/32 112 20/32
    Support 2 613.0667 1.2749 108  3/32 112 15/32
    Support 3 609.1333 1.2730 107 30/32 112  8/32
     
    REPORTS (EST): Provided by www.tradethenews.com audio news and interactive research directly from the pits
     

    Friday, Nov 3rd, 2006


    Economic
    08:30am Oct Unemployment Rate (last 4.6%), Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (last 51K), Change in Manufact. Payrolls (last –19K), Average Hourly Earnings (last 0.2%), Average Weekly Hours (last 33.8)
    10:00am Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing (last 52.9)
    Events
    SRP analyst meeting. Fed's Kohn speaks on Fed's Changing Structure in DC at 12:30pm. Fed's Kroszner participates in Finance Panel in Mexico City at 4:30pm. Trades Ex-dividend: INTC $0.10.
    Earnings
    Before the Open: AEE AGII CSAR CRYP DRS DUK DQE RDEN ETM GTIV HPOL HNT HPY JBSS KSE LIOX MAC MHS MNTA NRG OMG PGL PGN ROLL SRP SURW TTI THQI. After the Close: None.
     
    Note all time are EST. ANY AND ALL TIMES AND DATES ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. INFORMATION HAS BEEN TAKEN FROM SOURCES DEEMED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT NO ASSURANCES CAN BE MADE TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY OF THIS INFORMATION.
     
     

    This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!

    Sincerely,

    Ilan Levy-Mayer, M.B.A

    Vice President
    Cannon Trading Co Inc.
    http://www.cannontrading.com
    http://www.E-Futures.com
    ilan@cannoncapital.com

    Yahoo IM ilanlevy1970
    310-859-9572
    800-454-9572
    Fax 310-859-0547
    9301 Wilshire Blvd. Suite #614
    Beverly Hills, Ca 90210

    The finest compliment I can receive is a referral from a trusted client.
     
    * Important Please Note: 
    Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. 
    The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits.
    These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used.
    Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. 
     

    posted by Cannon Trading at 1:41 PM

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