November 7th, 2014 - Issue #761
In This Issue
1. Hot Market Report - Yen at 6-Year Low as Currency Markets are Moving
2. Daytrading Mind Traps
3. Economic Calendar
1. Hot Market Report - Yen at 6-Year Low as Currency Markets are Moving
From our friend Jim Wyckoff
Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at www.jimwyckoff.com click on image below to enlarge
The December Japanese yen futures slumped to a contract and six-year low Friday. Bears are in strong command. History shows that trends in currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. Importantly, the currency markets could be even more riled if the Russian ruble continues to plummet. There is talk of a currency crisis if the ruble continues its slide. The ruble hit a record low versus the U.S. dollar and the Euro currency on Friday. Stay tuned.
2. Day Trading Mind Traps
"One way our brain helps keep us safe is to protect us from an awareness of our weaknesses. The brain believes that it is better to be falsely confident than recognize the real risks. This protective mechanism tends to work against us in trading." Kenneth Reid, Ph.D
MINDING THE MIND
The mind can play tricks on us. Intuitive Trading is an attempt to mind read the market, which makes us susceptible to whipsaws. Hindsight Bias causes traders to underestimate the difficulty of trading, while Competency Bias causes us to over-estimate our abilities. These are mental banana peels that set us up for a fall.
INTUITIVE TRADING
Intuitive trading is a natural response to excessive randomness and non-linearity in the market. But making informed guesses is not the same as formulating a rule-based pattern-recognition system that gives a trader a true edge. Without a rule-based plan, intuitive traders expend a great deal of energy mindreading the market, which will not improve your odds of success. In fact, professional traders make a good living exploiting the emotionally-driven behavior of intuitive amateurs.
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3. Economic Calendar
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
| 11/10 Mon |
11:00 AM CST - WASDE Report & Crop Production | |
| 11/11 Tues |
VETERANS DAY |
|
| 11/12 Wed |
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 9:00 AM CST - Wholesale Inventories(Sep) |
LT: Dec Coffee Options(ICE) |
| 11/13 Thurs |
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CST - JOLTS-Job Opening(Sep) 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 10:00 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats 1:00 PM CST - Treasury Budget(Oct) 3:00 PM CST - Dairy Products Sales 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
|
| 11/14 Fri |
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CST - Export(ex-ag) & Import(ex-oil) Prices(Oct) 7:30 AM CST - Retail Sales(Oct) 7:30 AM CST - Retail Sales(ex-auto)(Oct) 8:55 AM CST - Mich Sentiment(Nov) 9:00 AM CST - Business Inventories(Sep) |
|
| 11/17 Mon |
7:30 AM CST - Empire Manufacturing(Nov) 8:15 AM CST - Capacity Util & Industrial Prod(Oct) 11:00 AM CST - NOPA Crush |
FN: Nov Lumber(CME) LT: Nov Eurodollar(CME) Dec Crude Lt Options(NYM) Dec Sugar-11 Options(ICE) |
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
