May 10, 2013 - Issue #685

In This Issue

1. Ranking 30 Futures Market Events
2. Hot Market Review - Commodity Index
3. Economic Calendar

1. Ranking 30 Futures Market Events

Date: May 1st, 2013

Where do I look and when do I pay attention?

Every trader has done it. You've done it, your friends have done it, even your broker has done it at one point early in their career.

Here's the scenario:

You've finally finished your futures education at Cannon Trading Company. You've done you're homework on stops, limits, indicators and price movements for the market you're trading. You're ready to go, you enter your limit order and you wait.

**DING**

You get filled. Your heart rate picks up, a wry smile crosses your face and you begin to imagine the possibilities of the one trade you're in: How much can I make? How much can I lose before it's too much? You've waited through months of technical trading and deep meditation to get here, and now it's finally paying off with one of your first trades in the live market. Sayonara paper trading; aloha live futures.

Then, all of a sudden, the top of the hour hits and the market starts acting up. It's getting more volatile and more volatile; it's picking up speed and taking an unforgiving turn against you. You can't think straight, all you can think about is your losing position that could get worse and worse as the seconds go by. You race to put in a stop order, but you finally have to settle for a market order just to stop the bleeding. You stare.

**DING**

You're out of the market. What the hell just happened? You stare at the screen; did your indicators lie to you? Is your system faulty? Did you not listen to your broker? Well, probably not. But you're down several handles, you've lost some money and your pride is aching.

It was a regular morning, you even patiently waited out the first hour of trading to try and get a better idea of what the day might have in store for the markets; yet in that one minute at the top of the hour the market experienced a major reversal and you have no explanation. You're sitting there scratching your head, furious that you'd prepared for your trade for so long and lost so much in such a short time without any idea why.

2. Hot Market Review - Commodity Index

Raw Commodity Bears Remain in Near-Term Technical Control

From our friend Jim Wyckoff

Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at www.jimwyckoff.com click on image below to enlarge

I was sorely disappointed to learn last month that the Continuous Commodity Index had been de-listed by the ICE futures exchange. I have been following that index (and previous iterations of it) for my entire career that spans nearly 30 years. The raw commodity sector index that comes closest to matching the CCI is the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI). See on the daily bar chart for the GSCI that prices have made a good rebound from the April low, but are still in a downtrend. The GSCI will have to push above the trend-line resistance level seen on the chart to provide the bulls with enough technical momentum to suggest the raw commodity sector has bottomed out. Until that time, the raw commodity bears are maintaining their overall near-term technical advantage.

3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.