The threat of an El Nino has been menacing the markets for the better part of year but it has to be remembered that the effects of El Nio (and La Nina) are varied worldwide, and this causes different outcomes on production by region.
2. Softs: What's ahead for coffee, Sugar and Cotton? by J. Ganes Consulting LLC
El Niño Threat Melts; Russia Putin’ Imports on Ice
The threat of an El Niño has been menacing
the markets for the better part of year but it
has to be remembered that the effects of El
Niño (and La Niña) are varied worldwide,
and this causes different outcomes on
production by region. There are also major
exceptions to the common thinking that El
Niño is simply bad for crops and La Niña
tends to benefit output. The intensity of an El
Niño is extremely important in determining its
effect on specific production. A weak or
moderate El Niño for example could bring a
positive benefit to production whereas a
strong El Niño could cause havoc. The timing
of the event is also critical because of how it
may bring disruptive rains or too little rain at
different points in the growing season or
harvesting time. The delayed onset therefore
of an El Niño can cause the production view
to change radically. For example, earlier in
the year it had been feared that heavy rains
associated with an El Niño could disrupt the
coffee harvest in Brazil or cause poor
growing conditions for the developing main
cocoa crop in West Africa. Neither of these
has happened. Not only has there been a
delay in the onset, but now the likelihood of
an occurrence has also been diminished. The
Climate Prediction Center had previously put
the chance of an El Niño at 70% but now has
decreased this to about 65% chance during
the Northern Hemisphere fall and early
winter.
According to the Climate Prediction...
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9:00 AM CDT - Construction Spending(Jul)
9:00 AM CDT - ISM Index(Aug)
FN: Sep Orange Juice(ICE)
09/03
Wed
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
9:00 AM CDT - Factory Orders(Jul)
1:00 PM CDT - Auto & Truck Sales(Aug)
1:00 PM CDT - Fed's Beige Book(Sep)
FN: Sep RBOB & ULSD(NYM)
LT: Aug Butter(CME)
Aug Milk(CME)
Aug Butter Options(CME)
Aug Milk Options(CME)
09/04 Thurs
6:30 AM CDT - Challenger Job Cuts(Aug)
7:15 AM CDT - ADP Employment Change(Aug)
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CDT - Productivity-Rev(Q2)
7:30 AM CDT - Trade Balance(Jul)
7:30 AM CDT - Unit Labor Costs(Q2)
9:00 AM CDT - ISM Services(Aug)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage
10:00 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats
3:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply
09/05 Fri
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Ave Workweek & Hourly Earnings(Aug)
7:30 AM CDT - Nonfarm Payrolls(Aug)
7:30 AM CDT - Unemployment Rate(Aug)
LT: Sep Canadian Dollar Options(CME)
Sep Currencies Options(CME)
Sep Live Cattle Options(CME)
Sep US Dollar Index Options(ICE)
Oct Cocoa Options(ICE)
09/08 Mon
2:00 PM CDT - Consumer Credit(Jul)
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