monthly futures and equity index futures outlook for october 2012

October 5 2012 Newsletter

monthly futures and equity index futures outlook for october 2012

Oct. 5th, 2012 - Issue #655

In This Issue

1. Trader's Resource Corner: Recommended Charting Software
2. October 2012 Outlook: Trick or Treat?
3. Economic Calendar

1. Traders Resource Corner: SierraChart

SierraChart is one of the best kept secrets in the futures trading arena. This charting package offers some of the most comprehensive indicators, chart types, custom studies and so much more!

SierraChart is a professional trading platform for the financial markets and supports manual, automated and simulated trading.

To get started with a real-time demo of SierraChart visit: our TransactAT download page. This top-of-the-line platform includes SierraChart, free real time data and everything you need to get started.

2. TTN October-November 2012 Outlook: Trick or Treat

TTN October-November 2012 Outlook: Trick or Treat

From our friends at Trade The News

Wed, 03 Oct 2012 14:55 PM EST

In the last two months, central banks have delivered on promises of new stimulus, acting even more aggressively than some expectations. European Central Bank President Draghi managed to convince nearly all of his colleagues to support a new sovereign bond buying program (OMT) that skates along the edge of the ECB mandate, and Fed Chairman Bernanke has unleashed a third quantitative easing program that is coming to be called QE-infinity given its open ended structure. Throw in fresh stimulus from China and Japan, and this round of stimulus may be more impressive than the emergency measures taken to staunch the 2008 financial crisis. Markets have taken the hint and the risk-on trade has plowed ahead using each successive stimulus program to take a leg higher, supported by what some observers have called a "QE competition" among central banks.

Even though the central banks have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the problem, it is still not clear that fiscal authorities will follow through with the necessary fiscal consolidation efforts. In Europe, all eyes are now on Spain, which has pledged more austerity measures, but has had some concerns about a loss of sovereignty that might be attached to accepting more help from its partners. Meanwhile the US has not even truly broached the idea of fiscal consolidation, as the national debt runs above $16T and the two political parties still refuse to compromise during the election season. China faces its own sort of uncertainties as the leadership prepares for its once-a-decade leadership transition just as the economic miracle seems to be settling into a slower growth phase. Events over the next two months could help settle some of these jitters headed into 2013, or they could exacerbate the uncertainty that government leaders have still failed to fully put to rest.

Putting on a Brave Face

The Fed has essentially gone all in: QE3 is the final quantitative easing program that the Fed will launch in this cycle because it is essentially limitless. The open ended nature of the new program allows the Fed to adjust the size and composition of the program as they see fit without going through the handwringing of launching a fresh QE program each time. Fed chieftains agree that this policy is focused squarely on the full employment mandate of the Fed by targeting MBS which can help improve the mortgage lending market, which in turn is hoped to keep the housing market recovery on track and undergird the overall economic recovery.

The labor market focus of QE3 comes with the caveat that the inflation mandate must also be maintained. As the program continues.....

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3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

Date Reports Expiration & Notice Dates
10/08
Mon
COLUMBUS DAY FN: Oct Live Cattle(CME)
LT: Nov Sugar 16(ICE)
10/09
Tues
  FN: Nov Sugar-16(ICE)
LT: Oct Cotton(NYM)
10/10
Wed
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Index
7:30 AM CDT - Dairy Products Prices
9:00 AM CDT - Wholesale Inventories(Aug)
1:00 PM CDT - Treasury Budget(Sep)
1:00 PM CDT - Fed's Beige Book(Sep)
 
10/11
Thurs
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CDT - Trade Balance(Aug)
7:30 AM CDT - WASDE Report & Crop Production
7:30 AM CDT - Export & Import Sales(Sep)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage
10:00 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply
 
10/12
Fri
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Core PPI & PPI(Sep)
8:55 AM CDT - Mich Sentiment(Oct)
LT: Oct Lean Hogs(CME)
Oct Soymeal(CBT)
Oct Soyoil(CBT)
Oct Lean Hogs Options(CME)
Nov Coffee Options(ICE)
10/15
Mon
7:30 AM CDT - NOPA Crush
7:30 AM CDT - Empire Manufacturing(Oct)
7:30 AM CDT - Retail Sales(Sep)
9:00 AM CDT - Business Inventories(Aug)
LT: Oct Eurodollar(CME)
Nov Sugar-16 Options(ICE)

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!

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