April 27, 2012 - Issue #633

In This Issue

1. ICE SOFTS: Fast Facts - April 2012
2. Raw Commodity Bulls in a Tough Near-Term Technical Spot
3. Economic Calendar

Featured Articles This Week

a. U.S. Financial System: Is It Finally Stable?
b. Portugal's Bailout, One Year Later: Were You Prepared in Advance?
c. European Central Bank: "Great White Fear" Takes A Bite Out of Recovery

1. ICE SOFTS: Fast Facts - April 2012

Weather & Politics: Rains Start in West Texas; India Startles Cotton Traders

By J. Ganes Consulting, LLC

The weather in West Texas last year was brutal with the worst drought in history gripping the region. Farmers planted into a dust bowl, hoping to get some sort of stand from their crops, but many did not. Abandonment on planted acreage topped 50%. Of course, this figure is somewhat misleading because there was some acreage that was planted knowing it would fail and so insurance could be collected on that track of land that otherwise would have sat idle. It seemed the drought would stretch forever because it lingered for so long over the region, but finally farmers are beginning to see soil moisture levels improve and believe that prospects for the 2012-13 crop are much more promising than they were a year ago. Even with a large drop in planting, production in Texas could be sharply higher based on a much smaller abandonment and return to more normal yields.

This is only a short sampler from the report, to gain access to the full PDF please fill out the form below.

Also featured:

Seasonal Swings and Spreads: Pre-Harvest Jitters, Old Crop Tightness

Crop Reports & Other Indicators: World Cotton Stocks Bumped Up; Cocoa Grind Not Terrible

Fundamental Favorites: Selling Springtime Rallies

ICE Update: New Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options

2. Raw Commodity Bulls in a Tough Near-Term Technical Spot

Jim Wyckoff's Hot Market

An examination of the daily chart for the Continuous Commodity Index (a basket of 17 major raw commodity futures prices rolled into one composite index) shows prices are in a two-month-old downtrend. The year 2012 kicked off with an upside spurt in many raw commodity market prices, which gave many traders and investors a notion the very accommodative monetary policies of the world's major central banks the past few years would ignite inflationary price pressures to send the commodity markets on another bullish stampede, such as that which occurred in 2008. Those bullish new year's notions have fizzled. Indeed, when examining the daily charts of the major commodity futures markets of the world, only the soybean market shows prices in an uptrend. Most of the other raw commodity markets are in price downtrends on their daily charts.

3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!