Looking at the last two trading days of the week…..

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

It’s a safe statement to make that the U.S. economy remains a quandary of conflicting signs. Growth is slowing in areas like housing and manufacturing, Americans are beginning to tamp down on spending and inflation is beginning to normalize. Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s eighth straight interest rate hike was the smallest since its fight against inflation commenced last March.

At the same, the labor market remains formidable. On Friday, data released from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the economy added 517,000 jobs – shattering expectations – and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.4 percent, a low not seen since May 1969.

Yesterday, during a question-and-answer session with David Rubenstein of the Economic Club of Washington, Mr. Powell reiterated the Fed’s outlook that the bank has more work to do and

that “the disinflationary process has begun,” the strong labor market is an example of why steering the economy to “this will be a process that takes a significant period of time.”

It shouldn’t be surprising to traders – particularly equity index, currency, financial and even metals traders – if volatility remains elevated for a comparable “significant period of time.”

Softs:

Sugar traded to six-year high of 21.86 intraday (basis March) last Wednesday, 2/1 and is trading ±.50 below there as of today’s close. The latest Commitments of Traders update shows a heavy net long position of >170K contracts – an exceptional measure of upside risk and likely a precursor to expanded volatility.

Orange Juice has advanced ±50 cents (a ± $7,500 move) over the last dozen trading sessions – including back-to-back limit-up moves of 10 cents last Tuesday and Wednesday – to new all-time highs near $2.58/pound. A Jan. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture report that orange production in Florida would be over half compared to the prior season is propelling the upward move.

Plan your trade and trade your plan.