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Wednesday Sept. 15th insight by Mark O’Brien, Cannon Senior Futures Broker:
Market Insight: Natural Gas
In just three weeks of trading (Aug. 25-today), Oct, natural gas
has made a massive ±$1.50 rally ($15,000 per contract), doubling in price from a year earlier reaching prices not seen since early 2014. Yet, at ±$5.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), natural gas prices
are a fraction of that in Europe and Asia where prices have approached $18.00-20.00 MMBtu! The fundamental bases for these high prices: the U.S. is behind schedule stocking up for the winter. At the same time, it’s an important exporter to Europe which is in its own precarious supply situation with storage for winter ±16% below its 5-yr. average.
What’s next for prices depends largely on what kind of winter is in store for the U.S. and Europe and the degree to which U.S. producers can ramp up on storage. Catching up on the 5-yr. average build-up will be closely monitored.
Daily Chart below
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