Pre‑Market
Briefing

JPMorgan — Bloomberg (April 9) Record $18B Q1 Equity Trading Haul — Andrew Tyler: S&P 7,000 “Feels Within Reach” — 7,200 Year-End Target

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are expected to unveil a record $18 billion equity trading haul for Q1 2026 — roughly 14% above the prior year — driven by Iran war volatility and AI disruption anxiety fueling institutional activity across every asset class. The total across the five largest U.S. banks with equity trading businesses represents more than double what they generated a decade ago. Andrew Tyler, JPMorgan’s head of Market Intelligence, shifted to tactical long on the S&P 500 following the ceasefire announcement, noting that 7,000 “feels within reach” on the combination of improved sentiment, tech valuation reset, and extreme bearish positioning among institutions and CTAs. Tyler maintains a 7,200 year-end target for the S&P 500 and is watching normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic as the key inflation and consumer transmission variable. Lakos-Bujas (Dubravko) and Mislav Matejka’s cross-asset desks are monitoring whether the ceasefire wobble materializes into a renewed risk-off leg before CPI prints.

Goldman Sachs — Year-End Target 7,600 $5,400 Gold Maintained — Downside: 6,300 Moderate / 5,400 Severe Oil Shock — Record Trading Revenue

Goldman maintains its 7,600 year-end S&P 500 target, built on projections of approximately $309 per share in 2026 EPS and $342 in 2027, anchored to an economy that continues to fire on underlying fundamentals. Goldman also laid out a clear downside path: in a moderate slowdown, 6,300; in a severe oil-driven shock scenario, as low as 5,400. The $5,400 gold year-end target remains in place — three structural pillars intact: central bank diversification buying (60 tonnes/month), Western ETF inflows, and the debasement/stagflation hedging trade. Goldman’s CPI-day watch: whether the hot energy print causes the market to reprice beyond the April FOMC hold into a rate hike scenario by June or September — the path that most directly threatens the 7,600 target. The Goldman Prime desk confirmed hedge fund net leverage is at historically low levels following the fastest HF selling pace in 13 years recorded during March.

Morgan Stanley — Mike Wilson Bull Case Intact Six Months Out — 5–7% Near-Term Downside Risk — Earnings Broadening Remains Key Call

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson argues that despite ongoing geopolitical and energy headwinds, history, fundamentals, and technicals all point to a clearer runway for U.S. stocks six months out. Near-term: the index remains vulnerable to another 5–7% downside while crowded stocks could see double-digit declines before a final low. The U.S. is structurally more resilient than Asia and Europe to an oil shock given energy independence — a factor that should attract investor flows back to U.S. equities as foreign markets feel more energy-cost pain. Wilson’s key structural positives: tax incentives for capital spending, individual tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill, and the broadening in earnings growth that was a core 2026 call. On the Morgan Stanley Tactical Research desk: stagflation risk framing is now the working model for the first half. A “guidance murkier than expected” earnings season (Liz Ann Sonders’ formulation) is the consensus expectation entering next week’s bank earnings.

Bank of America — Michael Hartnett & BofA Macro Desk Bull-Bear Indicator 7.4 — End of Sell Signal — “Too Early to Call a Market Bottom”

Michael Hartnett’s BofA Bull & Bear Indicator fell from 8.4 to 7.4 in the most recent Flow Show, formally ending the sell signal that had persisted since December 17, 2025. Hartnett’s explicit message: the end of the sell signal alone does not constitute a strong buying signal. He wants “capitulation by bulls” and panic-driven downward revisions in macroeconomic data before calling a true bottom. His current preferred positioning: long bonds, long international stocks, long gold. The “pain trades” since Q1: short-term Treasuries outperformed AI hyperscale bonds; oil outperformed gold; energy outperformed technology; dollar outperformed Bitcoin. His Bear Market risk warning for today’s CPI: if Trump’s credibility suffers structural damage from the Iran situation, the bear market in the U.S. dollar reasserts — historically a bull trigger for gold and international equities. BofA macro desk is specifically watching airfares and delivery services in today’s core CPI print for any early signs of oil cost seeping into services inflation.

Wells Fargo — Scott Wren IT Upgraded to Favorable — Standing Pat in 2026 — Growth Forecast Cut to 2.6%

Scott Wren (Wells Fargo Investment Institute) recently upgraded Information Technology to “favorable” given attractive entry points as the sector sold off on AI disruption and rate anxiety. Simultaneously, he lowered his domestic growth forecast to 2.6% given the energy shock headwinds, and projects the Federal Reserve will be “standing pat in 2026” on rates — no cuts, no hikes as the central base case. The Wells Fargo view: the Iran war should be short-lived, limiting the oil-market disruption to weeks rather than many months. Higher energy prices are expected to produce a temporary bulge in headline CPI this spring — view the energy-driven print as “largely reversible” in a fundamentally oversupplied global oil market once the Hormuz bottleneck resolves. WFII also notes that at the start of 2026, only about 15% of the CPI by weighting was rising at a 12-month rate of 4% or more — a far more benign starting point than February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and 62% of the CPI basket was running hot.

Ed Yardeni — Yardeni Research Ceasefire Confirms Bottom Is In — Recession Odds Cut to 20% — “None-and-Done” Fed — 7,700 Target Maintained

Ed Yardeni’s most recent Yardeni Research update (April 8–9) presents a distinctive framework for today’s CPI: the March FOMC minutes were “neither hawkish nor dovish — deliberate patience.” All FOMC participants agreed policy is not on a preset course. His “none-and-done” outlook for Fed policy in 2026 means the central bank stays on hold regardless of the CPI print unless second-round energy effects into core inflation become visible. A rise in long-term inflation expectations, or services inflation catching the energy pass-through, is the hawkish trigger Yardeni is watching for in today’s data. He cut recession odds to 20% following the ceasefire announcement and restored his 7,700 year-end S&P 500 target, citing that markets had been pricing worst-case geopolitical scenarios that the ceasefire partially resolved. Warning: “A two-week pause is not a resolution. Financial markets will remain sensitive to any breakdown in talks.” On today’s data: every major spike in crude oil has historically sent headline inflation higher, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 3.25% Y/Y captures that transmission faithfully.

Liz Ann Sonders — Charles Schwab Earnings Guidance “Murkier Than Expected” — Macro Backdrop Unstable — Ceasefire Doesn’t Normalize Supply Chains

Liz Ann Sonders published a Schwab Market Update on April 8 carrying direct implications for today’s session. Her most actionable formulation: “I think the guidance is going to be murkier this earnings season.” Analysts will probe companies on how energy price vagaries and supply disruptions are impacting their cost structures and how they are adjusting. Even with the ceasefire, crude oil prices remain elevated well above pre-war levels and the path after the two-week lull remains unclear — making corporate forward guidance structurally difficult. The Schwab framework entering CPI day: the macro backdrop is “unstable given policy crosscurrents” but stocks can “likely churn higher given a firmer earnings backdrop.” Her caution: ceasefire headlines do not instantly normalize shipping and supply chains — real-world inventory and logistical normalization takes weeks to months, not hours. Any surprise on services inflation in today’s core print could sharpen her concern about the durability of the rate hold narrative.

Morningstar / LPL Research CPI Expected to Jump on Energy — Core +0.3% M/M / 2.7% Y/Y — Fed Hold April 29 Near-Certain — Q3 Easing Door Open

Morningstar’s LPL Research economist Roach (published April 8) projects March price growth will accelerate in healthcare, housing, and vehicle categories — independent of the Middle East energy shock. His baseline: headline CPI +0.93% M/M / +3.70% Y/Y (FactSet consensus). Core CPI +0.3% M/M. Fed hold at April 29 is near-certain at 98.4% CME probability. The inflation picture should “decelerate in the latter half of this year,” keeping a September rate cut pathway open. Key call: “The economy is not slowing as dramatically as it would if it were going into a recession. But the economy is slowing a bit, coming off those breakneck speeds in the last two years.” Critical framing for today: March CPI marks the 22nd consecutive month where annual CPI has been above the Fed’s 2% target. The disinflationary trend from the pandemic peak has been unmistakable — but the Iran war has introduced a step-change in the energy component that risks restarting the clock.

Jonathan Krinsky — BTIG Chief Market Technician Ceasefire Validates Bottoming Process — CPI Is the Next Binary — Bull Case Needs Clean Close Back Above 6,900Featured Call

Jonathan Krinsky’s technical framework entering CPI day reflects the transition from the war binary to the inflation binary. The ceasefire announcement and subsequent two-day rally (S&P +3.1%) partially validates the bottoming process that Krinsky and Mark Newton had flagged in the April 5–9 consolidation window. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 6,824.66 — now above the critical 6,521 November low that Krinsky identified as the war’s definitive technical line. The next resistance: the 200-day moving average near 6,641 has been reclaimed. Bears need to see a close back above roughly 6,900 to lose control of the technical narrative entirely. The critical near-term risk: if today’s CPI print comes in significantly above consensus, the knee-jerk technical reaction could flush back below the 200-day, resetting the bottoming thesis. On the contrarian side, Krinsky specifically identified the elevated put-call skew as potential mechanical covering fuel if the data comes in benign. The VIX at 21.04 is off extreme-fear levels but still elevated enough to provide a vol compression tailwind on a soft CPI.

Mark Newton, CMT — Fundstrat April 5–9 Consolidation Window Played Out — Bottoming Confirmed — 7,300 Year-End

Mark Newton’s April 5–9 consolidation window framework proved prescient: the market consolidated in exactly that window before extending higher on the ceasefire. Thursday’s close at 6,824.66 positions the S&P 500 well above Newton’s near-term concern levels. His year-end 7,300 target is intact. The critical technical watch for today’s CPI: Newton had flagged GOOGL violating a four-month Head and Shoulders pattern as a material headwind for tech — software AI disruption narrative (flagged by multiple sources including Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast covering Anthropic’s Claude Code leak and its market implications for the sector) is compounding this technical vulnerability. A hot CPI that reignites rate-hike fears could be the catalyst that finally cracks software stocks after their ceasefire-led bounce.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute — Iran War Update (April 8) Short Conflict Base Case — Energy Bulge “Largely Reversible” — IT Upgraded to Favorable

WFII published an Iran war update on April 8 referencing their April 6 note “Adjusting targets, guidance and allocations.” Their base case reiterated: the Iran war should be short-lived, limiting oil-market disruption to weeks rather than many months. They expect higher energy prices to produce a temporary headline CPI bulge this spring — the exact print arriving today — but view it as “largely reversible” in a fundamentally oversupplied global oil market once the Hormuz bottleneck resolves. Beyond energy: slowing rental and other services inflation, more gradual U.S. tariff increases, deregulation cost savings, and AI-driven productivity gains are all keeping a lid on core inflation. The Fed held policy steady at its March 17–18 meeting, reinforcing a message that has become clear: the hurdle for future rate cuts is high. WFII’s sector call remains: IT (upgraded to favorable), Financials (most favored), Industrials and Utilities.

StreetInsider — NY Fed President John Williams (April 9 feed) 2026 GDP Growth Forecast Cut to 2%–2.5% — FOMC Continuity “No Issue”

StreetInsider surfaced a key NY Fed President John Williams quote on its April 9 top ticker feed: Williams is bringing down his 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2%–2.5% from prior estimates, reflecting the Iran war’s energy and supply chain drag. Williams separately addressed the Warsh confirmation uncertainty on Bloomberg television, stating there is “no issue of continuity” in FOMC leadership even if Warsh is not confirmed by Powell’s May 15 term end. “The most important thing here is that we’re just focused on doing our work,” Williams said. He had favorable words for Warsh as “someone who understands the Federal Reserve very well” and who has “a keen understanding of what our mission is and the importance of what we do.”

Reuters Morning Bid — Amanda Cooper (April 9) “Relief Rally Hits Pause” — Ceasefire Wobbles — Hormuz Below 10% of Historical Traffic

Reuters’ Amanda Cooper published the April 9 Morning Bid as “Relief Rally Hits Pause” — setting the tone for the overnight session that carried directly into today’s pre-open. The ceasefire wobble: Washington and Tehran are giving conflicting accounts of what the April 8 deal actually covers. Iran controls access to the Strait despite the two-week ceasefire announcement. Daily shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to less than 10% of its historical average since the war began — a key structural figure that argues against an immediate supply-normalization narrative even if a ceasefire holds. Weekend peace talks in Pakistan are still on as of Thursday’s reporting. Cooper’s data from April 9: February PCE at +2.8% Y/Y (covered pre-war data), Q4 GDP final at 0.7% SAAR, weekly jobless claims on the day. None of that moved the needle; all attention was already on today’s CPI.

Bloomberg Markets Live (April 9) Stocks Extended Thursday as Israel-Lebanon Direct Talks Agreed — Dow Turns Positive 2026 — All Eyes on CPI

Bloomberg’s April 9 Markets Live desk confirmed the session narrative: stocks extended gains into Thursday’s close after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel has agreed to open direct negotiations with Lebanon — a development that brought oil off its intraday highs above $100 and allowed the S&P 500 to add 0.62% to close at 6,824.66. The Dow Jones climbed 275.88 points (+0.58%) to 48,185.80 — turning positive for 2026 for the first time this year. WTI settled at $97.87 after briefly trading above $100 on Strait compliance concerns. Bloomberg’s Q1 bank earnings preview (Todd Gillespie and Katherine Doherty, April 9): Wall Street’s big five banks expected to post a record $18 billion equity trading haul for Q1 — roughly 14% above the prior year — driven by Iran war volatility and AI disruption anxiety. Goldman reports Monday (April 13); JPMorgan and Wells Fargo report Tuesday (April 14).

Seeking Alpha Wall Street Breakfast (April 9 episode) Iran/Oman Hormuz Transit Fees — 800 Vessels Eye Escape — Earnings Season Preview

Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast April 9 episode flagged two geopolitical-energy headlines directly relevant to today’s trading: Iran and Oman are reported to be charging fees for Hormuz transit during the ceasefire period; and shipowners are monitoring an escape window for approximately 800 vessels currently trapped in or near the Persian Gulf as Hormuz access remains contested. These logistics-level details underscore why Reuters’ figure of sub-10% historical traffic is so persistent even during a nominal ceasefire — the insurance, fee, and transit risk is keeping shipping companies from normalizing. The Seeking Alpha briefing also previewed Q1 earnings season: Delta Air Lines Q1 earnings and Delta’s baggage fee hike were the first major test of airline profitability under the fuel shock, with Delta raising revenue guidance despite higher jet fuel costs.

ZeroHedge (April 10, pre-open) “CPI Preview: Here Comes the Energy Surge” — March Print Captures War Reality — Mag 7 Case Building

ZeroHedge published its CPI preview this morning under the headline “CPI Preview: Here Comes the Energy Surge,” framing the March report as the first data to show the painful reality of $4+ gasoline that the February PCE (released Thursday) did not capture. The note highlighted the unusual sequencing: normally CPI precedes PCE, but the government shutdown last year delayed BLS reports, meaning Thursday’s PCE covered February (pre-war, with flat core) while today’s CPI covers March (full war impact). ZeroHedge’s homepage also surfaced Trump’s Truth Social post questioning Iran’s Hormuz compliance and flagged a contrarian equity signal: “The case for MAGs is back — few are positioned for it.” The logic: if CPI comes in benign or near consensus, the mega-cap growth stocks that sold off hardest on rate anxiety could see the most violent mechanical snapback from the current extreme short positioning.

ForexLive / investingLive (Morning, April 10) Geopolitical Tensions Have Oil Higher — Futures Lower Pre-CPI — USD/JPY Pulls Back

ForexLive’s live morning feed confirms the pre-open setup: geopolitical tensions have oil higher; yields little changed; U.S. equity futures pointing lower in pre-market ahead of CPI. USD/JPY is pulling back toward the 157.65 support level amid dollar weakness that accompanied the ceasefire optimism window. The feed specifically flagged: AUD and NZD remain vulnerable to further downside if energy-driven inflation persists and forces risk-off positioning. The Hormuz dollar/oil dynamic: DXY has briefly broken below 100 in recent sessions as ceasefire optimism pushed the dollar lower — but Trump’s overnight Truth Social post suggesting Iran is not honoring the agreement has partially reversed that move. Moody’s Mark Zandi separately flagged that March payrolls overstated labor strength, with his VCI indicator signaling hidden slack and downturn risks near 50%.

ZeroHedge — Live Morning Intelligence Trump: Iran Not Honoring Hormuz Agreement — “The Case for MAGs Is Back” — CPI Reacceleration Framing

ZeroHedge’s live homepage is capturing the two dominant narratives going into the CPI print. Narrative #1: Trump posted “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonourable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have” — reintroducing the geopolitical premium that had partially unwound Wednesday and Thursday. Narrative #2: “March CPI will show a notable reacceleration in headline inflation, driven mainly by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict and the associated rise in energy and commodity prices.” The contrarian signal they are surfacing: with few desks positioned long mega-cap technology and the equity put-call skew still historically elevated, a benign CPI print could produce an outsized mechanical squeeze in the Mag-7 names.

StreetInsider — April 9 Top Tickers & Benzinga Pre-Market NY Fed Williams GDP Cut — BofA 0.91% M/M CPI Forecast — Scott Wren: Fed Standing Pat — Futures Falling Ahead of CPI

StreetInsider’s April 9 top ticker feed: NY Fed President Williams cutting his 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2%–2.5%, the first major downward revision from a voting FOMC member since the war began. Benzinga’s pre-market update this morning (2 hours before open) specifically highlighted Scott Wren’s Wells Fargo call and detailed BofA’s CPI preview: BofA economists forecast a 0.91% M/M surge in headline CPI driven by a 10.6% jump in energy prices. Core CPI is expected at 0.26% M/M, implying a 2.7% Y/Y rate. BofA’s framing: “This month is likely too early to see significant signs of the Iran war in the core data. That said, we will be watching airfares and delivery services to see if there are any early signs of higher oil prices seeping through to the broader basket.” Benzinga headline: “S&P 500 Futures Fall Ahead Of March CPI As Trump Says Iran Isn’t Upholding Ceasefire.”

Bloomberg — Todd Gillespie & Katherine Doherty (April 9) Wall Street’s Big 5 Banks Set for Record $18B Q1 Equity Trading Haul — 14% Jump YoY

Bloomberg reporters Todd Gillespie and Katherine Doherty broke the Q1 trading haul story on April 9, providing the most concrete institutional data point ahead of next week’s bank earnings. The five largest U.S. banks with major equity trading businesses are expected to reveal a combined $18 billion stock-trading haul for Q1 — based on a Bloomberg consensus of analyst estimates. The total is more than double what those banks generated a decade ago and a roughly 14% jump from the same period last year. The primary driver: the U.S.-Iran war and lingering anxiety over how AI could disrupt large swaths of the economy created unprecedented volatility that institutional clients monetized through increased activity across equities, derivatives, and fixed income. Goldman Sachs reports Monday; JPMorgan reports Tuesday and is expected to set the earnings tone for the week.

Bloomberg Markets Live Desk (April 9) Stocks Extended Rally as Israel-Lebanon Direct Talks Agreed — Oil Off Highs — Dow Positive for 2026

Bloomberg’s markets desk confirmed the Thursday session: the S&P 500 closed at 6,824.66 (+0.62%) and the Dow turned positive for 2026 for the first time this year as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled direct talks with Lebanon would begin. Oil came off its intraday highs above $100 — WTI settled at $97.87, Brent at $95.92. 10-year yield held near 4.28%. Bloomberg specifically flagged that oil’s rise Thursday was driven by traders who realized Iran was still controlling Strait of Hormuz access despite the two-week ceasefire agreement — directly foreshadowing Trump’s Truth Social post Thursday night. Bitcoin topped $71,000 during the session, reflecting risk appetite improvement tied to the ceasefire mood. Bloomberg’s pre-CPI framing: “All eyes now turn to Friday’s CPI report — the first to fully reflect the war’s energy impact.”

Reuters — Amanda Cooper (April 9) Relief Rally Hit Pause — Hormuz Below 10% Normal Traffic — Weekend Islamabad Talks Still On

Reuters’ Amanda Cooper’s April 9 Morning Bid provided the cleanest framing of the ceasefire’s structural limitations. The ceasefire wobble is real: Washington and Tehran are giving conflicting accounts of what the deal actually covers. Most importantly: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut to the vessels that matter — daily shipping traffic below 10% of historical average. Weekend peace talks in Islamabad (Pakistan) are still scheduled, giving markets a geopolitical event to watch alongside the CPI print. Reuters also reported that oil rose Thursday specifically because “the market realized Iran was still controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz despite a two-week ceasefire agreement with the U.S.” — the most direct explanation for oil’s persistent elevation despite the nominal ceasefire. Iranian government confirms this reading.

CNBC (April 9–10) Warsh Hearing Delayed — Pirro Powell Probe Appeal — Trump Fires Bondi / Appoints Blanche — Cramer: Software vs. Hardware Split in Tech

CNBC’s live feed this morning leads with “Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation plan hits snag as nomination hearing is delayed” (7 hours ago). The previously scheduled April 16 Senate Banking Committee hearing has been pushed back. Sen. Tillis blockade holds. Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi Thursday and appointed Todd Blanche as acting AG — Blanche was Trump’s personal defense attorney and the move directly affects the DOJ’s posture on the Powell criminal probe. Former federal prosecutors told CNBC that Pirro’s chances of a successful appeal of Judge Boasberg’s ruling quashing the Powell subpoenas are slim — and that pursuing it could blow back on her legally. CNBC’s Jim Cramer (from Thursday, within 24 hours) explained the tech divergence: software stocks underperforming hardware and AI infrastructure since Anthropic’s Claude Code leak raised AI disruption anxiety for enterprise software. This AI-threat narrative is the structural headwind for software that persists alongside the CPI macro story.

@zerohedge (Active This Morning) Trump: Iran Not Honoring Hormuz Agreement — CPI Energy Surge Framing — Mag 7 Contrarian Case

@zerohedge is surfacing Trump’s Truth Social post challenging Iran’s Hormuz compliance as the overnight lead — reintroducing geopolitical premium that had partially unwound. The account is simultaneously framing today’s CPI as the first data to capture the war’s full energy shock. Their contrarian signal this morning: “The case for MAGs is back — few are positioned for it” — a potential short-squeeze setup if CPI benign. On energy: oil is rising pre-open as markets accept that the Strait closure persists despite the nominal ceasefire. @zerohedge remains the fastest account to surface presidential Truth Social posts and their market implications during off-hours.

@KobeissiLetter (April 9 via Benzinga) Bloomberg Billionaires Index Ratio to S&P at 0.41 — Lowest Since April 2025 — Historical Contrarian Buy Signal

The Kobeissi Letter posted on X on Wednesday (captured via Benzinga within the last 24 hours) flagging that the Bloomberg U.S. Billionaires Investment Index ratio to the S&P 500 has fallen to 0.41 — the lowest since April 2025, the last time markets printed a major bottom. The index tracks the top 50 U.S.-listed stocks held by American billionaires. Historically, when the ratio falls 0.04 points or more from a recent high (as it has now), it has preceded stronger broad equity market performance — driven by the exhaustion of downside in the specific mega-cap concentration that drives billionaire portfolios. The Kobeissi Letter’s context: heavy concentration in a few mega-cap names often means downside pressure is largely exhausted once those names weaken. This is a structural contrarian signal that argues the worst of the tech/mega-cap selloff may already be in.

@markets Bloomberg / @WSJmarkets (April 9, active) Thursday Session Confirmed — Ceasefire-Wobble Framework Established — CPI Is the Friday Binary

Bloomberg’s @markets and WSJ’s @WSJmarkets both confirmed the Thursday narrative within the last 24 hours: stocks extended on Israel-Lebanon direct talk signals; oil closed below $100 for the first time since the ceasefire but remained structurally elevated by Hormuz control realities; the Dow turned positive for 2026. Both accounts have shifted their pre-open framing entirely to today’s CPI binary: a hot print (above consensus) reactivates the rate-hike discussion and risks reverting Thursday’s gains; a cool or in-line print provides near-term relief but doesn’t resolve the structural inflation path from sustained energy prices. The market is entering the CPI print with equity futures already lower, signaling that positioning is more cautious than the Thursday close alone suggested.

FOMC Minutes, March 17–18 (Released April 8) Deliberate Patience — 7 of 19 See No 2026 Cuts — Second-Round Energy Effects Are the Hawkish Trigger

The March 17–18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, characterized Fed policy as “deliberate patience — neither hawkish nor dovish.” All participants agreed that monetary policy is not on a preset course. Seven of nineteen participants project no 2026 rate cuts. The longer-run neutral rate estimate edged up to 3.125%. The minutes specifically flagged second-round energy effects into core inflation as the trigger that would force a more hawkish response. The March meeting was held on war days 17–18, before WTI reached $111 and before the Oman protocol drama. Today’s CPI will be the first hard data that forces the Fed to reassess whether the “temporary energy bulge” narrative holds. Fed Governor Miran was the sole dissenter at the March meeting, preferring a 25 basis point rate cut — his position is now structurally untenable given the energy-driven inflation trajectory. Powell stated after the March meeting he will serve as chair pro tem if Warsh is not confirmed by May 15. Powell can remain on the Fed board through January 2028.

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting (April 9 update) +3.25% Y/Y Headline / +2.60% Core — Model Running on March Oil and Gasoline Price Data

The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank’s Inflation Nowcasting model — updated through April 9 and running on daily oil prices and weekly gasoline price inputs — projects March CPI at +3.25% year-over-year headline and +2.60% core. This is the highest-frequency official model available before today’s 8:30 AM ET BLS release and represents the most credible pre-print estimate from a Federal Reserve source. The model captures the full energy component of the March shock — gasoline contributing nearly 0.6 percentage points to the total monthly increase. The Cleveland Fed also noted that the data was accessed April 8, 2026, using the latest available nowcast for October 2025 CPI in place of the BLS release (which was missed during last year’s government shutdown). The nowcast is updated every business day and represents the most real-time inflation signal available from the Federal Reserve system before official BLS releases.

Kevin Warsh Confirmation — CNBC (April 10, 7 hours ago) April 16 Hearing Delayed — Pirro Appeal Faces Slim Odds — Blanche as Acting AG Changes DOJ Calculus

CNBC broke the Warsh confirmation delay this morning. The previously expected April 16 Senate Banking Committee hearing has been pushed back. Sen. Tillis’ blockade — refusing to vote for any Fed nominee until the DOJ investigation of Powell is dropped — continues to be the central obstacle. Thursday’s DOJ news: a federal judge (James Boasberg) ruled that U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro lacked proper purpose for her subpoenas to the Fed in the Powell investigation. Pirro has said she will appeal. Former federal prosecutors told CNBC her chances of prevailing on appeal are slim, and that the effort could create legal exposure for Pirro herself. The appointment of Todd Blanche as acting AG — Trump’s former personal defense attorney — introduces a new variable: whether Blanche will direct Pirro to drop the appeal, resolving the Tillis blockade, or allow it to proceed. The market interpretation: the longer this remains unresolved, the greater the probability that Powell leads the Fed through the April 29 meeting and possibly the June meeting as well.