BofA Global Fund Manager Survey (April) SURVEY

BofA’s April Fund Manager Survey — 193 managers, $563B AUM, fielded April 2-9 — showed investors slashed growth expectations by the most in four years, with a net 36% expecting weaker global growth over 12 months and a net 69% looking for higher global inflation, an almost five-year high. Equity overweight collapsed to net 13% (from 37% in March) while cash overweight surged to net 20%. The three most crowded trades: long oil (24% of managers), long semis (24%), and long gold (15%).

Morgan Stanley — Mike Wilson LOWS IN

Morgan Stanley’s CIO Mike Wilson told CNBC that the lows are in for the S&P 500 for 2026. He had previously argued the correction was “mature in time and price,” noting that 50% of Russell 3000 stocks were down at least 20% from 52-week highs. Wilson is now positioned for a second-half 2026 multiple expansion, and the call sits beneath the session’s consensus rotation out of cash and into tech.

Goldman Sachs Research (via Yahoo) CHINA ROBOTAXI

In an April 18 note, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Allen Chang forecast China’s robotaxi fleet will nearly triple from roughly 5,000 vehicles in 2025 to 14,000 by end-2026, raising fleet estimates 7% to 25% across the 2025-2035 horizon. Goldman Research stays constructive on 2026 equities but forecasts lower index returns than 2025 as the bull market broadens. The call matters for global autonomy supply chains and for the AI-linked capex narrative underneath the Tesla print tonight.

Fundstrat — Tom Lee 7,300 / 7,700

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said hedge funds are adding risk as the equity market enters a potential 18-24 month window he described as possibly “one of the best we’ve ever seen.” He holds a 7,300 S&P 500 year-end target (roughly 7.6% upside from current cash) with a 7,700 stretch. Lee argues 90-95% of the Iran-war selling is already behind the tape and that the April rally highs are technically stronger than January’s peak.

Yardeni Research — Ed Yardeni ROARING 2020s 60%

Ed Yardeni told Bloomberg that investors are already looking past the Iran war, treating the conflict “as if it is over for the time being.” He has raised the probability on his “Roaring 2020s” base case to 60% and kept a 7,700 S&P 500 year-end 2026 target. Yardeni cites record-breaking earnings and margins, resilient consumer spending, and a possible employment pickup despite AI disruption as the load-bearing assumptions beneath the call.

The Kobeissi Letter BUYBACK RECORD

The Kobeissi Letter flagged a record in equity buybacks: Russell 3000 buyback authorizations surged 36% year-over-year to $428B so far in 2026, roughly 176% above the same period in 2020. Separately, the Bloomberg U.S. Billionaires Investment Index versus S&P 500 ratio fell to 0.41, the lowest reading since April 2025 — a divergence that has historically preceded stronger market performance. The S&P 500’s longest win streak since October 2025 lifted the index 8% off the March 30 low and added approximately $4.5T in market cap across eight sessions.

Rosenberg Research — David Rosenberg HIDDEN TAX

David Rosenberg argued in his April 10 note that the primary threat to capital isn’t a short-term market correction but the compounding “hidden tax” of a devalued currency. Excess liquidity inflates housing and equities first, creating a wealth effect that gets hollowed out as essentials costs rise. Rosenberg’s illustration: a nominal 7% annual gain can net to zero when lifestyle costs climb at the same rate. He retains an extend-duration bias.

BTIG — Jonathan Krinsky FEATURED TECHNICAL ANALYST

BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky argued that the spread between software and semiconductor stocks has reached an unprecedented level, with the ratio falling 43% below its 200-day moving average — the widest in BTIG’s dataset and exceeding levels seen around the dot-com bubble. He called software the starting point for a potential major reversal, framing it as the contrarian 2026 trade versus the chip boom. Krinsky separately noted the S&P 500 spent 11 straight trading days below its 200-day moving average while 7% from its 52-week high of 6,978.60 (January 27); absent a full oversold washout his 6,000-6,150 downside reference stays active, though he leans bullish for the April setup.

Carter Worth (CNBC) PLTR SELL

Carter Worth appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime on April 20 walking through the technical setup on the utilities sector, which he framed constructively as a defensive rotation beneficiary into a still-volatile tape. On April 21 he followed with chart commentary on the Apple CEO transition. Earlier in April he flagged Palantir as a sell with a price objective around $100 based on the setup.

CBOE VIX Complex VIX 18.87

VIX closed at 18.87 on April 21 per CBOE, slightly below the monthly average of 19.12 and off Tuesday’s 19.50 intraday print. CBOE publishes five volatility gauges — VIX9D, VIX (30-day), VIX3M, VIX6M and VIX1Y — with the term structure in modest contango at the front given lingering near-term geopolitical risk while longer-dated vol continues to soften. Desks reading the curve see the ceasefire extension as a partial but not complete unwind of the tail bid.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute ENERGY → TECH

Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees a compelling opportunity to rebalance out of Energy and into Information Technology amid the fragile ceasefire. Energy has outperformed the S&P 500 by 27.5% year-to-date as of April 10, while Tech has lagged by 3.5%. The Bloomberg consensus projects 2026 earnings growth of 35% for Tech versus 18% for the broader S&P 500 as of April 10. WFII frames the earnings-growth differential plus valuation reset as the basis for the rotation despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Neuberger Berman CIO Weekly GROWTH MINDSET

Neuberger Berman’s CIO Weekly argues investors must shift from an inflation mindset to a growth mindset, with markets now assigning more importance to changes in GDP growth expectations than to incremental CPI prints. The note flags a confident U.S. consumer, declining unemployment, rising wages and an upside-surprising Manufacturing PMI as the pillars. It warns that even if the U.S. ends its war with Iran in the coming weeks, the Strait of Hormuz may not reopen immediately, keeping oil elevated. Productivity gains from rapid AI investment pose upside risks to growth and downside risks to labor, complicating the Fed’s dual mandate.

CNBC Pro Morning Market Brief PRE-MARKET

U.S. stock futures climbed early Wednesday after President Trump extended the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, citing Tehran’s “seriously fractured” government. S&P 500 futures added 0.52%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.68%, and Dow futures advanced 217 points (0.44%). The move reverses Tuesday’s close where the S&P 500 ended at 7,064.01 (-0.63%), the Nasdaq Composite at 24,259.96 (-0.59%), and the Dow at 49,149.38 (-0.59%). Adobe rose more than 2% after its board approved a $25 billion buyback program through April 2030; United Airlines edged up despite cutting 2026 guidance on rising fuel costs.

Bloomberg Daybreak / Markets Wrap OIL / FX

U.S. equity-index futures climbed and the dollar edged lower after the ceasefire extension fueled cautious optimism. S&P 500 contracts gained 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.7% on hopes easing hostilities will lower oil and support growth. Crude held a two-day gain: Brent traded below $99 after adding almost 9% over the previous two sessions, while WTI sat around $90. The underlying cash gauges had declined for two straight sessions on U.S.-Iran talk concerns.

Seeking Alpha — Wall Street Breakfast EARNINGS WEEK

Wall Street Breakfast flags Wednesday’s marquee reports: Tesla, Philip Morris, IBM and Boeing. Tesla Q1 Street consensus sits near $0.36 EPS on $22.34B revenue against Q1 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles (below Bloomberg estimates) with days of inventory climbing to 35 from 21 the prior quarter. Investors will focus on Terafab — Tesla’s planned one-terawatt AI compute facility excluded from the $20B capex guidance. RBC raised its Boeing Q1 deliveries forecast to 143 on expected revenue growth above 10%. Roughly 93 S&P 500 companies report this week.

Reuters Morning Bid — Mike Dolan BACK TO BUSINESS

Morning Bid frames the session after a dreary, war-filled six weeks with global stocks at record highs as geopolitical tension eases and investors pivot back to fundamentals. U.S. banks mostly impressed with Q1 earnings and tech’s turn is arriving — TSMC has already reported. Focus shifts to mega-cap results led by Tesla and Boeing alongside the Warsh Fed nomination backdrop.

CNBC Daily Open TACO TUESDAY

CNBC’s Daily Open framed the two-week Iran ceasefire extension as another “TACO Tuesday” — critics mocking the pivot from Trump’s prior “no more Mr. Nice Guy” rhetoric. Asia-Pacific opened broadly lower Wednesday on lingering worries the Middle East conflict will drag. Separately, Trump said he will “remember” companies including Apple and Amazon that don’t refuse to file for tariff refunds, after CBP opened a portal for importers to seek more than $160 billion in potential refunds tied to the IEEPA tariffs the Supreme Court struck down 6-3.

FinancialJuice Asia Wrap ASIA → NY

The global stock rally resumed with suggestions Iran may re-engage the U.S. reigniting resolution hopes. The MSCI All Country World Index rose 0.1%, Asian stocks were lifted by a comeback in the AI trade, and South Korean equities hit a new high. Apple slipped in late U.S. trade after appointing John Ternus its next CEO. Gold fell about 0.6% to roughly $4,800, silver dropped 1% to around $78.90, and Bitcoin slipped to about $75,750 earlier before recovering overnight.

ZeroHedge Morning Intel DATA STACK

Asian risk rallied into the U.S. open with the KOSPI +2.31% on AI-chip optimism and the Nikkei +1.29% on tech strength. The delegation question remains unresolved: Pakistani sources flagged teams arriving in Islamabad, but Iranian State TV called the reports “baseless.” The data calendar centers on Warsh’s Fed-chair nomination hearing plus March retail sales (consensus 1.4% M/M vs prior 0.6%), the weekly ADP employment change, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow update.

Economic Times / DSIJ Pre-Market GIFT NIFTY

India’s pre-market read at 7:30 AM IST showed GIFT Nifty down 126 points (-0.51%) at 24,449, signaling a softer open for Indian equities despite the ceasefire extension. The still-active U.S. blockade on Iranian vessels keeps uncertainty elevated. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.45%, Hong Kong and Shanghai traded lower, and WTI and Brent were trading between 0.70% and 0.91% lower intraday.

Benzinga Pre-Market EARNINGS ANCHORS

Benzinga flags Wednesday reporters IBM, Boeing and GE Vernova alongside Tesla. IBM is in the tape after unveiling new AI consulting solutions with Adobe. Boeing traded up 0.41% at $226 in Tuesday’s premarket heading into its print. Adobe is the premarket anchor after announcing its $25 billion buyback through April 2030. Broader tape was mixed into the ceasefire extension with the S&P 500 down 0.33% and Nasdaq down 0.14% Tuesday, with weak market breadth underneath.

Walter Bloomberg — @DeItaone TARIFF REFUND

Walter Bloomberg relayed that the U.S. government will begin refunding up to $166 billion in Trump-era tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled the policy unlawful. From April 20, businesses can file claims through a new Customs portal to recover duties; President Trump separately urged companies to forgo seeking refunds. The headline landed on desk feeds ahead of the Tesla print as a fast-breaking tape-mover for retailers, importers and the curve.

Walter Bloomberg — @DeItaone CEASEFIRE TIMING

Earlier in the week, DeItaone flagged Trump’s line that the ceasefire expires Wednesday evening Washington time — the exact window the extension just neutralized. Sticking points flagged were Iran’s enrichment, the Strait of Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief. Desks treated this as the binary tape event for oil; the pivot to extension altered the positioning but did not resolve the underlying items.

Walter Bloomberg — @DeItaone HORMUZ REMARK

A separate DeItaone relay had Trump saying that, given more time, the U.S. could open the Strait of Hormuz and take the oil. The tweet aligned with the ceasefire-expiry flashpoint and the persistent disruption premium in Brent. Desk-side traders read this as signaling Trump is unlikely to walk back enforcement threats — meaning the extension is a tactical pause, not a structural concession.

Nick Timiraos — WSJ / @NickTimiraos HAWKISH MINUTES

Timiraos posted that Fed minutes revealed the “vast majority” of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil bleeding into core, and the risk that years of above-target inflation have left expectations more vulnerable to another shock. The read is hawkish into the Warsh confirmation fight.

Nick Timiraos — WSJ WARSH HEARING

In a WSJ piece co-bylined with Matt Grossmann, Timiraos previewed how Senate Democrats planned to press Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh over perceived gaps in his financial disclosures. The hearing ran April 21, the day before today’s pre-market. Warsh told the panel he would not be Trump’s “sock puppet” and denied being asked to pre-commit to rate cuts.

Michael Derby — Reuters / @michaelsderby INFL EXP 3.4%

Derby reported that Americans, rattled by surging energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, expect higher near-term inflation. The New York Fed’s March Survey of Consumer Expectations showed inflation one year out seen at 3.4%, up from 3.0% last month. The projected rise in gasoline prices climbed 5.3 percentage points to 9.4%, the highest since March 2022. The print sets a hawkish tone into the Fed transition narrative.

Michael Derby — Reuters WARSH DIVESTMENT

Derby reported that Fed chief nominee Kevin Warsh came under fire from Senate Democrats over his plans to divest tens of millions of dollars in financial assets if confirmed. The confrontation occurred during the Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing and framed how quickly Warsh could credibly deliver the rate cuts Trump has pressed for.

Jonathan Krinsky BTIG — @jkrinskybtig SOFTWARE vs SEMIS

Krinsky reiterated on the public tape that software looks poised for a meaningful rebound versus semiconductors, with the ratio 43% below its 200-day moving average — the widest in his dataset and exceeding both the build-up to and aftermath of the dot-com bubble. He called the setup “off the charts” and a key starting point for a potential reversal, positioning software as the contrarian 2026 trade.

Jonathan Krinsky BTIG S&P 6,000-6,150

Krinsky also warned that the S&P 500 spent 11 straight trading days below its 200-day moving average while sitting 7% from its 52-week high of 6,978.60 (January 27). With RSI dipping below 30 into oversold territory, absent a full washout his 6,000-6,150 downside reference stays active. He still thinks the April setup leans bullish into month-end with potential to close green.

John Kemp — @JKempEnergy OIL SUPPLY SHOCK

Kemp detailed that global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d in March — the largest disruption in history — driven by attacks on Middle East infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz tanker restrictions. U.S. diesel retail prices climbed to $5.40 per gallon on March 30 from $3.81 before the war, averaging $4.92 for March (more than 32% MoM, the largest one-month increase on record). He argued rising oil helped shape the ceasefire.

Anthony Pompliano — @APompliano BTC SHINING LIGHT

ProCap Financial CEO Pompliano said Bitcoin has been flat to slightly up during the Iran conflict while stocks, bonds and gold all sold off, demonstrating “true product-market fit” as a scarcity asset. He pointed to Morgan Stanley’s low-fee Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) drawing $34M day-one and $100M in week-one inflows as evidence of accelerating institutional adoption. Bitcoin reclaimed $75,000, erasing war-period losses before moving higher into today.

Willy Woo — @woonomic BTC $46-54K

Woo labeled expert Bitcoin price forecasts “all too bullish,” arguing they lack a basis in reality. His on-chain models pin the Bitcoin bottom at $46,000-$54,000, citing a bearish three-day chart structure, slowing ETF inflows and rising whale selling. Bitcoin peaked above $90,000 in late 2025 and closed at $65,803 on March 29, 2026. He warned that if broader market structure breaks, deeper uncharted territory is possible.

Newsquawk Week Ahead CATALYST STACK

Newsquawk flagged April 22 as a triple catalyst: the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires at 01:00 BST; the CBRT is expected to hike 300 bps to 40% (not certain); and the U.S. Treasury sells $13 billion of 20-year bonds. T-notes rallied into the week’s start led by Brent falling below $90/bbl after Iran’s Foreign Minister said the Strait of Hormuz had reopened to commercial shipping.

Moody’s Analytics — Mark Zandi VCI RECESSION

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said his Vicious Cycle Index is signaling the U.S. economy may already be in recession, an indicator he notes has “nailed every recession since WWII without falsely predicting a downturn.” He pegs 12-month recession odds at an “uncomfortably high” 48% but thinks the U.S. likely avoids a formal downturn as long as the well-to-do keep spending. The tariff pain and oil shock from the Iran war are the named drivers; Zandi’s framing overlays a stagflation caveat on the ceasefire rally.

NFIB Small Business Optimism 95.8 SBOI

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, the first reading below the 52-year average of 98.0 since April 2025. Positive profit trends slid 11 points to net -25%, and owners expecting better conditions fell 7 points to net +11%, the lowest since October 2024. The uncertainty index rose 4 points to 92, well above its historical average of 68, with the March oil-price spike flagged as the main driver. The Employment Index fell from 103.5 to 101.6.

NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations 3.4% 1Y EXP

The New York Fed’s March Survey of Consumer Expectations (released April 7) showed one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.0% in February as households reacted to the energy surge. The projected rise in gasoline prices climbed 5.3 percentage points to 9.4%, the highest reading since March 2022. Household views on current and year-ahead financial situations deteriorated, with the share expecting a worse position hitting the highest since April 2025. This is the hawkish consumer print against which Warsh’s framework is now being tested.

BLS / DOL Jobless Claims IC 207k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 were 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the prior week’s revised level, with the 4-week moving average at 209,750. Insured unemployment for the week ending April 4 was 1,818,000, a 31,000 increase, with the insured rate unchanged at 1.2%. The low claims print is consistent with a labor market softening only gradually despite the oil-shock squeeze on small businesses flagged by NFIB.

Atlanta Fed — GDPNow 1.3% Q1

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP growth was 1.3% as of the April 9 update, running well below the Blue Chip consensus of 2.4% cited by Governor Waller in his April 17 outlook speech. The divergence is consistent with slower underlying momentum as the oil shock, tariff drag and small-business uncertainty feed through. BEA’s advance Q1 GDP print is scheduled for April 30.

Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac 30Y 6.30%

In its April forecast, Fannie Mae put the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.3% for Q2 2026 and 6.1% through the rest of 2026 and 2027, a material upward revision from March’s 5.7% / 5.6% call. Earlier forecasts were anchored to rates as of February 27, before the Iran war sent rates up five consecutive weeks per Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. Revised HPI sees stronger price growth of 3.4% in Q2, 3.8% in Q3 and 3.2% in Q4; Freddie’s weekly 30-year survey stood at 6.30% in mid-April.

ISM Manufacturing & Services PRICES 78.3

ISM’s March Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7%, up 0.3 pp from February and marking a third consecutive month in expansion — the strongest run since mid-2022. Services PMI eased 2.1 pp to 54.0%, its 21st consecutive month in expansion. The key Fed tell: the manufacturing prices index jumped to 78.3%, its highest since June 2022, as tariffs and the oil shock fed through. Next prints land May 1.

BEA Release Calendar APR 30 CLUSTER

BEA’s next major releases after the April 9 Q4-2025 third estimate are the advance Q1 2026 GDP and March Personal Income & Outlays (including PCE price index), both scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on April 30. Desks are treating the April 30 cluster, not today, as the next macro policy trigger, with GDP, PCE and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting stacking into back-to-back catalysts. Wednesday trades between the Warsh hearing aftermath and these month-end prints.

Conference Board — Consumer Confidence / LEI 91.8

The Conference Board’s March Consumer Confidence Index edged up 0.8 points to 91.8, with the Present Situation Index up 4.6 points to 123.3 but the Expectations Index down 1.7 points to 70.9 — still flashing recession-territory signals on the forward-looking component. The April release is scheduled for April 28. The U.S. Leading Economic Index remains on a delayed cadence given the late-2025 government shutdown, with the last published reading (January) at 97.5, down 0.1%.

Governor Christopher Waller — Brookings (Apr 21) STRUCTURAL

Governor Waller used an April 21 Brookings appearance to argue that major support functions across the 12 regional Fed banks — IT, HR, finance, procurement, vendor management and facilities — should be consolidated under a single enterprise leader. He framed it as modernization to reduce cost, manage risk and deliver better value to taxpayers. The speech is being read by markets as both a structural management message and a subtle political signal a day into Warsh’s confirmation fight. It does not alter near-term policy guidance.

Governor Christopher Waller — Outlook (Apr 17) CONDITIONAL DOVE

In his April 17 outlook speech, Waller said Blue Chip respondents see Q1 GDP at 2.4% with net immigration at zero holding labor force growth near zero. He warned that the longer Hormuz is constrained and energy prices stay elevated, “the greater the chances that higher inflation gets embedded across a wide variety of goods and services.” But he added that a swift end to the Middle East trouble would keep rate cuts on the table later in 2026 — the most dovish-conditional read from a sitting governor into the April 22 session.

NY Fed — President John Williams (Apr 16) HEADLINE 2.75-3.0%

At the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York’s annual symposium on April 16, President Williams said both the regional and national economies have been resilient to uncertainty, but flagged inflation crosscurrents from tariffs (boosting core) and energy (boosting headline). He expects overall inflation to print 2.75% to 3.0% in 2026 before falling to the 2% longer-run target in 2027. Hard data stabilized labor supply/demand but soft data is softening. Middle East conflict is the key uncertainty amplifier.

Kevin Warsh — Fed Chair Nomination Hearing (Apr 21) REGIME CHANGE

At his April 21 Senate Banking confirmation hearing, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh vowed he would not be Trump’s “sock puppet” and said the president had never asked him to pre-commit to any rate decision. He called for “regime change in the conduct of policy” and a new inflation framework, dismissed core PCE as a “rough swag,” said he would abandon forward guidance, and would not commit to continuing regular press conferences. The nomination faces 12-12 committee math with Senator Tillis holding his vote over the DOJ’s investigation of Powell. Desks read the plan as emerging from the hearing “largely intact.”

FOMC — March 17-18 Minutes (released Apr 8) VAST MAJORITY

The minutes from the March 17-18 FOMC meeting showed the “vast majority” of participants thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by tariff effects lingering longer in goods, oil bleeding into core, and the risk that years of above-target inflation have made expectations more vulnerable to a new shock. The next FOMC meeting is April 28-29, which with the April 30 BEA cluster creates a back-to-back policy week. Bias into current pricing is hawkish relative to market cut expectations.

FEDS Notes — April 8-13 batch TARIFFS / STABLECOIN / INFL EXP

The Federal Reserve published three notable FEDS Notes in April. On April 8, Minton, Ray and Somale examined the economic effects of the major changes in U.S. trade policy, a timely contribution as tariffs compound the oil shock. Another April 8 note covered “Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications.” On April 13, Salter and Villar addressed the relationship between inflation expectations and wages — relevant directly to the NY Fed SCE 3.4% print. Together the notes frame the Fed’s technical bench view entering the Warsh transition.