Futures Pre‑Market
Briefing

Yardeni Research VIA BLOOMBERG

Ed Yardeni, who called the market’s nadir earlier this month, told Bloomberg that war risks remain far from over even after the S&P has rebounded roughly 9% from its drawdown. He notes the index is now +1.3% since Friday February 27 — the day before the conflict escalated — which he frames as the market treating the war as effectively over for now.

Yardeni stays tactically constructive but flags residual geopolitical tail risk as a reason to keep hedges on even as the panic peak is past.

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey MONTHLY

The April Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey showed a composite sentiment indicator at 3.7, down from 5.6 and the lowest reading in ten months. Net 36% of surveyed managers now expect weaker global growth, a sharp move from just 7% prior.

The most-crowded trade label shifted to “long oil” and “long global semiconductors,” displacing “long gold.” 41% of respondents cite balance-sheet strength as the top capital-allocation priority; 58% still expect Fed rate cuts while only 10% foresee hikes.

Morgan Stanley — Mike Wilson BULLISH

Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson has argued the lows are in for the S&P 500 for the year, framing the correction as “mature in time and price.” He cites roughly 50% of Russell 3000 stocks having traded at least 20% below their 52-week highs as evidence the damage is done.

Wilson has leaned toward a bull case of 7,200 by mid-2026 versus his prior 7,800 year-end target — consistent with a buy-the-dip bias into Q2.

Desks reading Wilson alongside Yardeni hear a coordinated “panic has peaked” message out of the big-bank strategy chorus, even if not every desk is long new-money exposure today.

Fundstrat — Tom Lee BULLISH

Tom Lee told CNBC this week that the next 18-24 months for US equities could be “one of the best periods we’ve ever seen in our lifetimes,” with private and retail investors as the next leg’s driving force after pulling back during the Iran buildup.

Lee flags an “inflation shock” as the primary risk that could add volatility to the path, but frames downside geopolitical risk as increasingly contained.

Rosenberg Research CAUTIOUS

David Rosenberg argues equities are treating the ceasefire extension and the absence of a worst-case oil shock as enough to keep the rally alive, even with the geopolitics unresolved and valuations stretched.

He cites the Philadelphia Fed’s services diffusion index at −16.5 for April, with new orders cratering to −16.9 from −4.7, a three-year low, and Lufthansa’s cut of 20,000 flights due to jet-fuel shortages as concrete stress in downstream sectors. Rosenberg remains skeptical of the rally.

Charlie Bilello RATE PATH

Bilello puts the Fed at a 98% probability of holding the 3.50-3.75% band at next Wednesday’s April 29 meeting, with only a 2% tail implied for a 25 bp hike. After a 22% rally from the April 7 lows, the S&P 500 is now up on the year — one of the biggest short-term comebacks in market history.

He notes the 61-day correction was the longest since the 2022 bear market, framing the snap-back as typical of historically deep but fast selloffs that resolve higher.

Kobeissi Letter FLOW

The Kobeissi Letter posted that buyback authorizations across the Russell 3000 have surged +36% year-over-year to a record $428 billion so far in 2026 — and +176% above the same period in 2020. At a historical execution rate of ~90%, US corporates are set to be large marginal buyers of their own stock this year.

The flow setup is a persistent counterweight to the cooling-demand signal dominating the macro tape.

Frank Cappelleri TECHNICAL

Cappelleri published on CNBC that a major crypto exchange stock is forming a cup-and-handle pattern — a bullish continuation setup. He had separately flagged the SPX reaching its first bullish 2026 upside target after an inverse head-and-shoulders triggered, with a 6,920 target since exceeded as SPX printed 7,137.90 on Wednesday.

His bullish structural read remains intact as long as breadth holds.

Jonathan Krinsky — BTIG

Krinsky’s work framed the software-minus-SOX ratio as roughly 43% below its 200-day moving average — a divergence that has exceeded the dot-com setup in his dataset. He has flagged a VIX divergence similar to January’s pre-bounce conditions and has been leaning toward an offensive posture with a long software / short semis tilt.

Krinsky did not publish a dated piece inside the 24-hour sweep window; this is presented as background technical context only.

Carter Worth CONTRARIAN

Worth used a recent CNBC appearance to frame the utilities sector technicals as a meaningful tactical read against the move in rates and AI-driven power costs. His broader stance remains skeptical of the crowded mega-cap trade; he has reiterated a “sell Palantir” call and flagged further downside in a Mag 7 underperformer.

Reading the tape SYNTHESIS

The sentiment lineup is split. Institutional proxies (NAAIM 79.49, CBOE equity put/call 0.48, CNN F&G 70) all read offensive-to-complacent. Retail (AAII bull 31.7% / bear 42.8%) is still carrying a cold hand — ten consecutive weeks of above-average bearishness. The cleanest read is that pros have re-risked into the record-close tape while retail remains reluctant.

That configuration is historically bullish on a 1-3 month horizon but raises the odds of a sharp pullback if a catalyst (jobless claims miss, Hormuz re-escalation, or a Warsh confirmation accident) hits at peak professional exposure.

Neuberger Berman CIO Weekly — “A Growth Mindset”

NB argues markets are now putting more weight on changes in GDP growth expectations than on inflation, a shift from the inflation-focused prior regime. They cite consumer confidence, declining unemployment, rising wages, and an upside surprise in the US Manufacturing PMI as supportive. China’s reported 5% GDP growth and upside Europe PMIs at a six-month high add to the constructive mosaic.

Even if the Iran war ends near-term, NB expects the Strait of Hormuz to stay closed and keep oil elevated — with real economic implications that the equity rally is largely looking through.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute — Sector Reshuffle RATING CHG

WFII downgraded Energy from neutral to unfavorable and upgraded Information Technology from neutral to favorable, citing more favorable IT valuations and a continued AI-demand backdrop with Semiconductors and Semi Equipment benefiting from an HBM-driven cyclical upturn.

On commodities, WFII suggests reallocating out of energy-related components into precious metals after the oil-price surge and gold selloff around dollar-liquidity needs. They also highlight munis for income, diversification, and resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Raymond James — Larry Adam Weekly

Raymond James sees US growth accelerating to 2.4% in 2026, with the US entering the Iran conflict from a position of strength as a net oil exporter and productivity gains helping contain inflation. The base case has the 10-year Treasury ending 2026 in a 4.25-4.50% range, underpinned by solid growth, a steady labor market and anchored inflation expectations.

They favor higher-quality bonds (Treasuries, IG corporates, munis) over riskier credit. On equities, they view the recent pullback as unsurprising given elevated valuations, optimistic sentiment, and midterm-election risk.

Reuters Morning Bid — “Indefinite Ceasefire, Markets Unbothered”

Reuters frames April 23 with an indefinite US-Iran ceasefire that markets are mostly pricing in, pulling investor attention back to corporate earnings and economic data. Trump announced the extension hours before the prior truce expired but said he will continue the blockade of Iran’s ports, keeping Hormuz traffic effectively at a standstill and Brent hovering near $100.

European futures pointed to a subdued open; the AI theme is back on in Asia, with SK Hynix now among the top 20 most valuable companies globally.

Bloomberg Markets DAYBREAK

Bloomberg’s April 23 wrap says stocks and bonds fell after stalled US-Iran negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil higher, souring risk sentiment after the record Wednesday close. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both fell 0.5%; MSCI’s Asia Pacific equity gauge fell 0.6% with decliners beating advancers two to one.

The chipmaker winning streak (16 straight sessions going in) set the tape for a pause.

CNBC Daily Open

CNBC Daily Open says Trump’s ceasefire extension took some pressure off the tape after two days of selling, but crude edged up and US-Iran talks appear on ice. Brent was cited up 2.2% to $104.17/bbl in an intraday print; the IEA head warned of an unprecedented energy security threat.

Thursday’s pre-open earnings docket: AXP, NEE, TMO, HON, UNP, LMT, BX, CMCSA, FCX — with INTC and GILD after the close.

Seeking Alpha Wall Street Breakfast

Wall Street Breakfast highlights the heavy Thursday slate led by Intel after the close — margins and AI-driven demand are the key tells — plus American Express and Blackstone among the pre-open reports. Earnings season is accelerating against geopolitical developments and key macro data that will drive trading.

Tesla’s Wednesday print remains a key read-through for AI-5 chip timeline, robotaxi rollout and capex plans.

Benzinga Pre-Market Movers

Pre-market movers for April 23 feature Kyverna Therapeutics (KYTX) up about 25.8% after positive miv-cel trial results, Huachen AI Parking Management (HCAI) up roughly 97% to $13.37 after a 23%+ prior-day gain, and eLong Power (ELPW) +42.1% to $2.23 reversing Tuesday’s decline.

The list skews toward AI-infrastructure and biotech speculation.

Earnings Whispers — April 23 Calendar

Pre-open lineup: American Express (AXP), NextEra Energy (NEE), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Honeywell (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Blackstone (BX), Comcast (CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Newmont (NEM), Phillips 66 (PSX), SLB, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) and American Airlines (AAL). Intel and Gilead headline the after-close slate.

Analyst Previews PRE-OPEN

KDP reports Q1 with Street looking for EPS around $0.37 on revenue near $3.83B. AAL consensus points to a loss of about $0.46/share on $13.75B revenue. HON Zacks revenue consensus sits at $9.3B (-5.6% YoY), EPS at $2.33, with a 7.6% trailing average EPS surprise — call at 8:30 ET.

Polymarket implies INTC at 91% beat odds against a consensus adjusted EPS of $0.00 and AXP at 87% against a GAAP consensus of $3.99 — the bar is set high going in.

After-Hours Apr 22 Read-through

Tesla rose ~4% after Q1 beat estimates and progress commentary on Robotaxi and robotics infrastructure. IBM fell ~4.75% despite a Q1 beat, with management reiterating full-year constant-currency revenue growth above 5%. ServiceNow, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Southwest, and Lululemon were also in focus overnight and set the Thursday AM sentiment.

Morning Market Movers — RTTNews

Axe Compute (AGPU) gapping +~111% on heavy volume, INBX up ~45% on a 20% response rate in a colorectal cancer trial, HCAI extending, Local Bounti (LOCL) gapping down 20%+. Tilt: AI infrastructure and biotech binary catalysts.

Economic Schedule

Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, consensus ~212K, alongside continuing claims. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI prints from UK, Germany, France, the Eurozone aggregate and the US, with S&P Global US Composite PMI at 9:45 AM ET. Fed balance sheet release at 4:30 PM ET.

Citadel Securities — Public Equity Snapshot FLOW

Citadel Securities’ public Equity Snapshot / April update frames positioning as improved, flows as more constructive, and the market as transitioning back toward a fundamentally driven, idiosyncratic regime. They cite ~$428bn of YTD US corporate buyback authorizations (strongest start on record) and a 90% execution rate implying a pace near $1 trillion of 2026 repurchases.

VIX sits around 18 after the recent compression — supportive of the offensive-positioning narrative feeding into Thursday’s open.

Benzinga — Earnings Volatility Watch (Public)

Benzinga’s public-facing options-implied moves screen for the week of April 20-24 flags 10 names with 20%+ implied earnings moves — the free analog to Benzinga Pro’s subscriber view. Useful for sizing overnight hedges and single-name gamma into Thursday’s after-close reporters.

@DeItaone (Walter Bloomberg) HORMUZ

A Hormuz blockade readout mirroring Bloomberg Economics framed continued US enforcement as sharply reducing the chance of near-term diplomatic resolution and of restored oil flows. The implication: higher oil prices, weaker global growth, increased inflation risk — reinforcing the overnight risk-off tone.

@DeItaone — Pentagon Readout

A readout to Congress circulated on X indicated clearing Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months — and would not begin until the war ends. The disruption window extends well past any near-term ceasefire horizon, with implications for tanker names, refiners, and Asia supply chains.

@DeItaone — Tariff Refund Mechanic

The US government will start refunding up to $166 billion in Trump-era tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled the underlying policy unlawful. From April 20 businesses can file claims through a new Customs system. Potential implications for importer cash flows and corporate guidance language during the current earnings window.

@DeItaone — Meta Layoffs

Sourced reporting circulated that Meta plans to carry out its first wave of company-wide layoffs on May 20, expected to hit roughly 10% of total workforce, with additional cuts later in 2026. A cost-cutting overlay on any META tape action today.

@NickTimiraos (WSJ) — Waller Framework

Timiraos laid out Fed Governor Chris Waller’s framework for the current oil shock: if the Strait reopens, Waller would be cautious about near-term cuts and more inclined to cut later in the year to support labor; if it stays closed, the Fed cannot cleanly project. Anchors a dovish-under-growth-weakness reaction function on the FOMC.

@NickTimiraos — Tariff Passthrough Math

Per a Fed staff estimate Timiraos shared on X, tariffs in place through November 2025 raised core goods prices by 3.1% through February (absorbing the entire prior overshoot in that category) and lifted core PCE by about 0.8%, with pass-through now essentially complete. The tariff wedge looks mechanical and should fade — clearing the runway for more benign core PCE prints into mid-2026.

@NickTimiraos — Warsh Confirmation Clock

Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair confirmation hearing is now six days away. Timiraos has flagged a criminal investigation cheered on by the president who nominated him as the biggest obstacle. A delayed confirmation would leave Powell as holdover chair past mid-May — rates desks are carrying this as a short-dated vol hedge.

@APompliano — Bitcoin Reset

On CNBC’s Squawk Box and cross-posted to X, Pompliano argued Bitcoin is still in a bull phase after the correction from the cycle high near $126,000 to roughly $60,000 — framing the pullback as a reset rather than a trend break. BTC traded near $78,800 on Wednesday; his April 22 podcast cross-promo emphasized continued ETF inflows and institutional participation.

@woonomic (Willy Woo) — On-Chain

Woo’s on-chain framework anchors the cycle bottom band at $46K-$54K, driven by historical liquidity cycles rather than price alone. He has flagged a potential bull-trap persisting through end of April — a defensive read against Pompliano’s more constructive tone. Relevant to crypto desks on April 23.

@jkrinskypga (Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG)

Krinsky’s work framed the software-minus-SOX ratio at roughly 43% below its 200-day — the widest in BTIG’s dataset — as a prime reversal starting point for a long-software / short-semis tilt. Separately flagged a VIX divergence similar to January’s pre-bounce setup. Bias: offensive positioning, rotate into software.

@CGasparino (Charles Gasparino, Fox Business)

Gasparino pushed the view that a 60,000-job swing and net job losses in 2025 should set off alarms. He argues that AI adoption, tariff flux, and new labor mobility are already pulling work out of New York City, and that layering on tax uncertainty is causing employers to pull back on hiring. Relevant to sentiment on regional banks, NYC-exposed CRE, and discretionary labor-sensitive sectors.

@JKempEnergy (John Kemp) — Refiner Stress

Kemp’s April 21 “Best in Energy” roundup highlighted China electricity market integration progress, South America supply diversification easing some call on OPEC+, and Asian refiners running out of options amid the Hormuz disruption. Physical crude bottlenecks are being absorbed unevenly — refiner margins, not just Brent, will be the key 2Q earnings tell. Reads directly into VLO, MPC, and PSX into April 23.

Conference Board — Leading Economic Index

The US LEI inched down 0.1% in January 2026 to 97.5 (2016 = 100) after a 0.2% decline in December, and has fallen 1.3% over the six months through January. The pace of decline has halved vs. the prior six months but the index continues to flag slowing momentum into 2026 even as Q3 2025 real GDP printed 4.4%. Consumer expectations and building permits were the principal drags.

NFIB Small Business Optimism

March’s NFIB print fell 3.0 points to 95.8, sliding below the 52-year average of 98.0 for the first time since April 2025. The decline was led by an 11-point drop in positive profit trends and a 7-point drop in owners expecting better conditions. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, well above its 68 historical average, reflecting tariffs, the oil spike, and tax-policy overhang.

Small-business owners flagged taxes and inflation as top concerns, echoing the Beige Book’s war-related uncertainty narrative.

Fannie Mae — April Housing Forecast

Fannie Mae’s April 2026 housing forecast puts the 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.3% in Q2 and 6.1% through the remainder of 2026 and 2027, anchored off late-March rates near 6.5%. The revised home price index calls for 3.4% YoY growth in Q2, 3.8% in Q3, and 3.2% in Q4.

Multifamily starts revised up to 435K for 2026. Full-year PCE inflation is seen rising from 2.8% in 2025 to 3.3% in 2026 before falling to 2.0% in 2027.

NAR — Existing Home Sales

March existing-home sales came in at a 3.98 million annualized pace, down 3.6% month-over-month with declines in all four regions. Inventory at 4.1 months; the median price set a new March record at $408,800. NAR now expects existing-home sales up just 4% in 2026, a downgrade; new-home sales were revised to flat from a prior 5% gain.

S&P Global — US Flash PMI

The US Services PMI flash reading came in at 49.8 — below the 51.1 consensus and 51.7 prior — signaling the first dip into contraction for services output since late 2022. The US Composite Output PMI for March printed 51.4, an 11-month low, reinforcing late-cycle deceleration at odds with the firm March ISM Manufacturing.

Combined with NFIB and LEI softness, the flash suggests real activity is losing momentum into Q2.

Federal Reserve — April Beige Book

The April 2026 Beige Book, prepared by the New York Fed on information through April 6, reports mixed conditions across the 12 Districts with modest aggregate growth and uncertainty from the Iran conflict weighing on firms. Boston described a slight decline driven by weaker real estate; Philadelphia saw slight growth with moderate manufacturing; Atlanta flagged war-related uncertainty as a drag. Community reports cited rising gas prices straining household budgets and nonprofits stretched as federal and local grant renewals came in lower.

Governor Waller — Brookings, April 21

At Brookings on April 21 Governor Christopher Waller argued for consolidating HR, IT, procurement, and facilities decisions at the System level rather than district by district, outlining two scenarios ranging from single-leader functional oversight to physical relocation into a few low-cost hubs. In Q&A, Waller said the Fed plans to reduce roughly 20,000 Reserve Bank employees by 10% over the next two years.

The speech lands ahead of Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing; together the messaging primes a material institutional reshaping at the Fed.

San Francisco Fed — FedViews April 16

SF FedViews sees headline PCE inflation rising to roughly 3% by end-2026 before drifting to 2% by end-2027. The market-implied fed funds path has shifted higher on the Middle East conflict, with pricing flipping from two 2026 cuts to a hold for the rest of the year. Oil market volatility is framed as the primary source of outlook uncertainty — dovetailing with the Beige Book’s war-uncertainty tone. Policy bias reads hawkish-by-default unless oil normalizes.

Dallas Fed — Persian Gulf Outage Scenarios

A Dallas Fed working paper models the inflation impact of the 2026 Iran war, finding a one-quarter cessation of Persian Gulf oil exports would lift WTI to roughly $110/bbl in April 2026, a two-quarter outage would peak WTI at $132 in July, and a three-quarter outage would peak at $167 in October. The same release showed the Q1 Dallas Fed Energy Survey business-activity index at 21.0 (from −6.2 in Q4), with the uncertainty index jumping to 53.7 from 43.4. Executives on average see WTI at $73 in two years and $79 in five.

A key reference for energy-driven inflation risk at the margin.

NY Fed — Liberty Street Economics

Liberty Street finds Treasury market liquidity worsened briefly after the April 2, 2025 tariff announcement, improved quickly as tariffs were partially walked back, and has since steadily improved to its best level since 2021 by early 2026. A companion post on the “R*–Labor Share Nexus” links the decline in R* over the past quarter century to the fall in the labor share of income.

Frames how the NY Fed is thinking about market functioning and neutral-rate dynamics into a post-Powell chair transition.

Chicago Fed — CFNAI Today

The March CFNAI is scheduled for release today. February fell to −0.11 from +0.20 in January, with three of four broad categories contributing negatively; the three-month moving average CFNAI-MA3 sat at −0.01 and the diffusion index slipped to −0.17 with 54 of 85 indicators negative. A soft March print would corroborate the LEI / Services PMI flash / NFIB cluster.

Federal Reserve Board — April FEDS Notes

FEDS Notes released this month include an April 13 Salter-Villar piece on inflation expectations and wages, an April 8 Minton-Ray-Somale piece on timely assessment of tariff effects, and a related working paper on announced versus implied tariff rates. Board staff are actively modeling how recent tariff moves and de-anchored inflation expectations feed through to wages and prices — informing whether cooling activity or sticky inflation wins the FOMC debate.