GOLDMAN SACHS Kostin / Snider / Hatzius — Year-End 7,600

Goldman's equity strategy team led by David Kostin with successor Ben Snider, paired with Jan Hatzius on macro, is holding a 7,600 year-end 2026 S&P target. The thesis is anchored on a projected 12% lift in corporate earnings driven by the transition in AI from capex to productivity gains, implying aggregate EPS of $305-$309 on a 22x forward multiple. The call is not fresh news but is the reference point institutional desks are measuring this morning's Intel halo against.

MORGAN STANLEY Mike Wilson — “Lows Are In”

Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson told CNBC on April 14 that the lows for the S&P 500 are in for the year. His 12-month target is 7,800 with an assumed 17% earnings growth and a modest valuation contraction, favoring Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare.

BANK OF AMERICA Michael Hartnett — Commodities Have Years to Run

BofA's Hartnett argues investors should flock into commodities for the next several years as they benefit from global geopolitical and macroeconomic turmoil, with commodities replacing stocks as the biggest winners of the “anything but bonds” trade through the rest of the decade. The April Fund Manager Survey printed a sentiment composite at a multi-month low, yet 2026 is on pace for record equity and investment-grade credit inflows — the textbook tension between positioning pessimism and actual flows.

TOM LEE · FUNDSTRAT “The Bottom Is In”

Tom Lee argued the Iran ceasefire means the bottom is in for stocks and that 90-95% of Iran-war-related selloffs are behind. His earlier call for a turnaround to 7,000+ in the S&P was well-timed as the index recently broke 7,100 for the first time. Lee holds 7,700 for year-end and describes the next 18-24 months as potentially one of the best periods equity investors will have seen.

KOBEISSI LETTER Billionaire-Stock Divergence — Contrarian Buy Tell

The Kobeissi Letter flagged that stocks heavily favored by US billionaires are underperforming the broader S&P, a pattern that has historically preceded stronger market performance. The ratio of the Bloomberg US Billionaires Investment Index to the S&P has fallen to 0.41, the lowest since April 2025, down 0.04 points since December — similar in shape to the March-April 2025 trade-war episode. The contrarian read is that mega-cap concentration exhaustion typically marks a trough.

DAVID ROSENBERG Markets Cling to a Slippery Off-Ramp

Rosenberg argues equities are treating the ceasefire and absence of a worst-case oil shock as enough to keep the rally alive, even with the geopolitical situation unresolved and valuations stretched. He has flagged the Philly Fed services diffusion index printing contractionary -16.5 for April, with new orders cratering to -16.9 from -4.7, a three-year low — and pointed to downstream disruptions such as Lufthansa cancelling 20,000 flights on jet-fuel shortages as evidence the off-ramp is narrower than the tape suggests.

FEATURED TECHNICAL ANALYSTJONATHAN KRINSKY · BTIG

BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky flagged a divergence in the VIX — the index failed to make a new high while the S&P briefly dipped below its March lows, similar to the January setup that preceded a short-term rally. Krinsky earlier flagged 6,700 as key support, with 6,582 (200-day) and the November low at 6,521 as the downside tests. With the S&P having regained record highs, he does not expect a retest of the March lows and believes sentiment will continue to move constructive. Separately he has argued software is poised for a meaningful rebound relative to semis — a rotation call that fits the Intel-halo tape.

MARK NEWTON · FUNDSTRAT 100-day low to 200-day high in eleven days

Fundstrat's head of technical strategy Mark Newton framed the S&P's recent move from a 100-day low to a 200-day high in just 11 sessions as evidence the corrective phase is complete, with sector rotation into laggards the next leg. The rapid recovery breadth is the technical underpinning for the constructive read on Friday's tape.

CARTER WORTH Utilities in Focus — Still Flagging Palantir Downside

Carter Worth used his April 20 Closing Bell slot to walk through the technicals of the utilities sector, framing it as a meaningful tactical read given rate behavior and AI-driven power costs. His broader stance remains skeptical of crowded mega-cap trades; Worth has reiterated a “sell Palantir” call and continues to flag downside in at least one Magnificent 7 underperformer.

READ ACROSS GAUGES

The positioning rebuild is broad-based: CNN F&G at Greed, AAII bulls finally above the historical average after ten weeks below, NAAIM near 95, equity put/call 10-DMA under 0.60, VIX flirting with the high teens. Contrarians will note the AAII bull spike is often a late-cycle tell, and the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey's sentiment composite at a multi-month low is still the institutional footnote. Net: positioning has reset sharply to risk-on, which means downside surprises on Hormuz or Michigan inflation expectations have more to work with.

WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE Tech Favorable / Energy Unfavorable — Rotate to Precious Metals

WFII is running with the April 6 reallocation: Information Technology upgraded to favorable on semis and HBM-driven AI cyclicality; Energy cut to unfavorable. The commodities team flags a rotation opportunity — energy components outperformed into early April as oil surged and precious/industrial metals dropped (international buyers sold bullion to raise dollars for pricier oil) — and advises redeploying from energy commodities into precious metals. Municipal bonds are highlighted as an income and diversification anchor as 2026 reinvestment demand rises.

RAYMOND JAMES · LARRY ADAM 2026 S&P Target 7,250 on $300 EPS

Raymond James' weekly strategy holds 2026 S&P 500 EPS at approximately $300 (+10%) with a 24x multiple, yielding a year-end target of 7,250 — roughly 7% of upside from the Thursday cash close at 7,108.40. The firm argues the US entered the Iran conflict from a position of strength as a net oil exporter with productivity gains anchoring inflation and supporting 2.4% 2026 GDP. The recent pullback is framed as healthy — resetting stretched valuations and overly bullish sentiment ahead of midterm elections. On fixed income, the 10Y is expected to end 2026 in a 4.25-4.50% range absent a fresh inflation or recession shock.

NEUBERGER BERMAN · ERIK KNUTZEN Inflation Mindset to Growth Mindset

Neuberger Berman's Multi-Asset CIO Erik Knutzen argues the market has pivoted from inflation-dominant to growth-dominant risk pricing. A companion April 6 note warns that residual Hormuz uncertainty likely keeps crude elevated even if US-Iran headlines ease — a structural tailwind for integrated energy and a headwind for goods inflation. The framework supports diversified multi-asset exposure with tactical commodity exposure and duration as a hedge.

WOLFE RESEARCH · STEPHANIE ROTH Constructive 2026, AI Capex Top Theme

Wolfe's strategy team reiterates an optimistic 2026 US call with slightly above-trend 2.1% GDP and sticky inflation near 2.7% at year-end. They argue tariff-policy uncertainty is fading while the budget-bill impulse supports growth, keeping US equities biased higher with narrow leadership in Tech and Communication Services. AI capex remains their top sector theme with no bubble signals. Large-cap internet favorites: META, UBER, DASH, SHOP. CVS is top pick in managed care.

WILLIAM BLAIR 2026 Value and SMID Revival

William Blair's PM team publishes a 2026 value-revival thesis: small- and SMID-cap value are emerging from an economic downturn with improving fundamentals and very cheap valuations; historically these cohorts rally when the Fed cuts, framing 2026 as a classic small-cap rebound setup. Pairs well against mega-cap AI concentration.

REUTERS MORNING BID Asia Records Reverse; Germany Cuts Growth

Reuters Morning Bid frames Friday's open as risk-off despite early records in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan that reversed intraday. Positive Asia data — SK Hynix record quarterly profit, Korea's fastest GDP growth in nearly six years, Japan manufacturing strongest in four years — is fighting with two Iranian tankers seized in the Strait of Hormuz and a fragile ceasefire. Germany's Economy Ministry simultaneously cut 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts while lifting inflation projections. Reuters reads the tape as cautious into the US open with a bid for energy and defensives, and early-cycle Asia names under pressure.

CNBC MARKETS Intel Halo Lifts Nasdaq; Dow Drags

CNBC's live markets blog has Nasdaq futures +0.88% on Intel's after-hours surge while Dow futures slip 0.29% on industrial weakness and ServiceNow/IBM software-correction aftershock. Data center revenue at Intel grew 22% year-over-year to $5.1B on CPU demand tied to AI workloads. The Foundry partnership news tied to Tesla's “Terafab” project at Intel 14A puts a bid under US semi-equipment names.

BENZINGA PRE-MARKET Friday Earnings Load

Benzinga's Friday calendar: HCA Healthcare ($7.15 EPS vs $6.45 YoY, $19.07B revenue), Norfolk Southern ($2.49 vs $2.69 YoY, $3.00B revenue — guidance-sensitive after the Canadian-deal noise), Procter & Gamble ($1.56 EPS, +2% YoY, revenue +3.7% YoY with FY26 core EPS range of $6.83-$7.09), Western Union ($0.39 EPS vs $0.41 YoY, $962.88M revenue), First Hawaiian ($0.54 EPS, $221.09M revenue). Polymarket traders are 62% tilted Up for the April 24 open versus 38% Down.

ZEROHEDGE · NEWSQUAWK Euro Area Confidence Hits 2022 Low

The Newsquawk-sourced ZeroHedge wrap flags the Euro Area April consumer confidence flash at -20.6 versus -17.2 expected — the lowest since December 2022 — and Germany's Economy Ministry cut of 2026 growth to +0.5% from +1.0%. Iran negotiations remain unresolved; Tehran says it has “no plan” for a next round, keeping ceasefire optionality two-sided. The read is short EU cyclicals, bias toward US quality, hedge via oil or gold.

FORTUNE Oil Extends Fourth Day of Gains as Hormuz Shuts

Fortune reports oil rallied for a fourth straight session after the US military said it intercepted two Iranian oil tankers that tried to evade the blockade, as Washington stymies Iranian shipping while Tehran threatens vessels in the Strait. Trump unilaterally announced a ceasefire extension hours before expiry, but it is unclear whether Iran or Israel accept the terms. Traffic through Hormuz is effectively at a standstill.

SEEKING ALPHA WALL STREET BREAKFAST Earnings + Data Double-Header

WSB flags Friday as an earnings-plus-data double-header. P&G is the consumer-staples headliner with the Street looking through the tape for pricing/volume mix. Intel's 20% after-hours pop dominates chip tape. Retail sales and sentiment data frame whether the consumer is carrying through tariff and geopolitical drag. AI and Middle East geopolitics remain the two macro anchors.

STREETINSIDER Evercore Raises Marvell PT to $155 from $133

Evercore ISI pushed its Marvell price target roughly 17% higher after channel checks pointed to accelerating custom-silicon bookings and a stronger-than-expected data-center networking pipeline. The call underscores sell-side willingness to extend AI-infrastructure targets further even as index-level valuations stretch, and reinforces the pattern of custom-ASIC suppliers re-rating alongside hyperscaler capex.

STREETINSIDER BMO Capital Downgrades ASGN to Market Perform

BMO moved ASGN off Outperform citing softer IT-staffing demand and a narrower set of catalysts into the next print. The downgrade fits a cluster of cautious calls on discretionary-tech services names and is the kind of print institutional holders will read alongside the broader cooling in corporate IT budgets that recent channel checks have flagged.

THE FLY Goldman Raises Firefly Aerospace PT to $32 from $29, Stays Neutral

Goldman nudged the Firefly target higher following the company's NVIDIA Jetson integration announcement and improved Elytra orbital-vehicle roadmap. The firm remains Neutral, reflecting a stock trading near the sell-side average around $37 and limited near-term upside until new contract wins materialize.

BENZINGA PRO Pre-Market Movers — AI-Semi Bid

Benzinga Pro's pre-market mover tracker shows a bid under AI-semi and custom-silicon tickers following Intel's Q1 blowout, with industrial names mixed ahead of P&G. The feed flags unusual pre-market volume in INTC on the 20%+ after-hours move, and residual option flow tied to MRVL, AVGO and AMD. Institutional desks are watching whether the Intel halo extends beyond the chip complex.

BLOOMBERG TERMINAL TAPE Mixed Futures Into P&G Open

Bloomberg Terminal's overnight tape is dominated by Intel's beat and robust Q2 guide. Terminal desks are flagging a mixed futures print — Dow softer on industrials, Nasdaq firmer on Intel halo, S&P futures effectively flat. Paywalled Terminal-only flashes otherwise unavailable for secondhand surfacing.

13F FILINGS TRACKER Cycle Gap

The institutional filings tracker shows no material new 13F submissions in the trailing 24-hour window; the Q1 2026 filing deadline falls in mid-May, putting the market in a typical lull period. Amendments have been thin. Institutional positioning intelligence today is better gleaned from 13D/G flow and earnings-driven ownership disclosures.

@NICKTIMIRAOS · WSJ Labor Market as Cut Trigger

Nick Timiraos continues to frame the labor market as the key swing factor for the Fed's next decision, arguing a meaningful move up in the unemployment rate would be required to trigger cuts. He has flagged that the balance of risks is shifting and that a soft-landing narrative is once again being pursued. With a new Fed chair transition looming, Timiraos has cautioned the next chair may struggle to deliver the scale of cuts the White House wants.

@CARLQUINTANILLA · CNBC Intel Halo Dominates Friday Open

Carl Quintanilla's Squawk on the Street opener frames the tape around Intel's blowout, P&G's pre-open print, and residual Tesla capex digestion. He highlights that Intel's roughly 20% after-hours move is the biggest single-name reaction of the week and is lifting the AI-semi complex. Carl flags continued rotation into quality cyclicals.

@DAVIDFABER · CNBC Helix / Hornbeck Offshore Merger

David Faber flagged the Helix Energy Solutions — Hornbeck Offshore Services all-stock merger announced April 23, creating a combined entity to trade as Hornbeck Offshore Services (ticker HOS) and expected to close in 2H 2026. The deal reshapes the US offshore-services landscape amid elevated oil prices and strong rig-support demand, dovetailing with the broader energy-services consolidation theme.

BLOOMBERG OPINION Intel Off Life Support — but Needs Intensive Care

Bloomberg Opinion argues Intel's Q1 beat and Q2 guide mark a genuine turn — data-center revenue +22% to $5.1B and client computing at $7.7B versus $7.1B consensus — but cautions the full recovery is far from complete. The column emphasizes that sustainable gains depend on foundry traction and real competitive wins against AMD and custom ASICs. Useful framing for the morning halo trade.

@GUNJANJS · WSJ Retail Activity Cooling But Not Panicked

Gunjan Banerji's recent WSJ markets coverage notes that retail investors are showing decreased activity but remain un-panicked by elevated index levels. Options flow has modestly narrowed and retail conviction trades (SPY, QQQ, mega-cap tech) continue to dominate — a cooling consistent with a tape that has chopped around record highs. She also previews SpaceX IPO chatter as a sentiment catalyst.

@JKEMPENERGY · REUTERS US Crude Exports Record 4.7 Mbpd

John Kemp reports US gross crude exports averaged 4.7 million barrels per day in April, up from 4.0 mbpd a year earlier, near a record high, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers a scramble for replacement barrels. He also flags Newcastle coal futures averaging $137/tonne in April versus $108 in January — materially supportive of the US energy tape and an argument that the current bid is structural, not a one-off spike.

@APOMPLIANO Bitcoin Has “Reset”

Anthony Pompliano told his podcast audience that Bitcoin's move from ~$126,000 highs toward $60,000 has reset positioning, and BTC is already back in a new bull phase. He points to continued ETF inflows and institutional adoption as durable tailwinds and frames BTC as a safe-haven asset that has outperformed equities, gold, and bonds during multiple risk-off episodes since 2020. BTC pre-market around $77,700.

@ROBINWIGG · FT ALPHAVILLE Wealthy LPs Exiting Private-Credit Flagships

Robin Wigglesworth's Alphaville webinar previewed his private-credit and hedge-fund research, highlighting growing evidence of wealthy LPs exiting Blackstone-, Apollo-, and Ares-managed vehicles, reflecting liquidity fatigue and repricing concerns. He tied the theme to the bond-market story that anchors his upcoming book. The piece has been widely shared among institutional allocators.

@SCOTTWAPNERCNBC Halftime Committee Debating Trough

Scott Wapner's Halftime committee has been debating whether the worst of the April pullback is behind, with Joshua Brown, Stephanie Link and Joe Terranova flagging quality-cyclical additions on weakness. The conversation turns today on Intel's guide and the read-through for the rest of earnings season, with members also pressed on portfolio adjustments around elevated oil and Iran risk. The tone has been cautiously constructive rather than outright risk-on.

CNBC BUSINESS Tesla Post-Earnings — Capex Guide Overshadows EPS Beat

CNBC's post-mortem on Tesla's Q1 notes EPS of $0.41 adjusted beat $0.37 consensus but revenue of $22.39B missed the $22.64B consensus, and shares flipped from +4% to -1% after-hours when the company guided full-year capex $5B above prior. The reaction highlights sensitivity to spending even amid Wall Street's AI-pivot narrative on Tesla; Dan Ives continues to frame the stock as more AI than car company.

BUSINESS INSIDER MARKETS CPU vs GPU Narrative Reassessed

Business Insider Markets writes that Intel's Q1 is forcing analysts to reconsider the CPU-versus-GPU narrative, with data-center CPU demand resurging on agentic AI workloads. The piece quotes Intel's CEO on the CPU “reinserting itself as the indispensable foundation of the AI era,” framing the print as potentially changing the pecking order among AI-infrastructure beneficiaries.

NY POST BUSINESS Oil Pops Again as Hormuz Tightens Flows

NY Post Business highlights WTI trading near $97 on persistent Hormuz disruption, driving record US export volumes and elevated gasoline crack spreads. The piece emphasizes political pressure on the Administration as gasoline prices climb into summer driving season and dovetails with Kemp's reporting on 4.7 mbpd US exports. Energy-sector leadership appears durable into next week.

YAHOO FINANCE · P&G PREVIEW Staples Bellwether

P&G is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 2026 results before the bell, with revenue consensus near $20.6B (+4.2% YoY) and EPS near $1.57 (+2% YoY). The print is a key read on US and global consumer demand, pricing power and FX — given the elevated staples multiple, investors are focused on organic growth mix more than the headline. The reaction will be a bellwether for staples into May.

@DEITAONE / @WALTERBLOOMBERG Intel Guides Well Above Consensus

The Deltaone aggregator flagged Intel's Q2 guide of $13.8-14.8B revenue and $0.20 EPS, well above the $13.07B / $0.09 consensus, as the biggest single-name guide surprise of the week. Reaction spread to AMD, MRVL and AVGO pre-market via sympathy flows. Desks are watching whether mega-cap tech tags new highs on the halo.

REUTERS FINANCE Futures Mixed Before P&G

Reuters Finance's wire wrap frames Friday's tape around Intel's upside surprise, a softer Dow on industrial weakness and elevated oil on Hormuz shipping concerns. The desk emphasizes institutional focus on the Fed path and the tenor of Q1 earnings beats broadening beyond tech. Reuters notes that Q2 guides have been stronger than feared in AI-infrastructure names; the market continues to price a soft-landing macro narrative.

WSJ MARKETS Earnings Broadening Beyond the Mag-7

WSJ Markets' earnings wrap notes that Q1 beats are broadening beyond the Magnificent 7 to include industrial-tech and semis, with Intel and the chipmakers driving a re-rating debate. The piece frames the broadening as a positive signal for cyclical rotation but notes that oil-driven input-cost fears could cap multiples. Investors are watching whether P&G confirms the staples pricing story.

S&P GLOBAL US April Flash Composite PMI Rebounds to 52.0

The April flash S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 52.0 from March's two-and-a-half-year low of 50.3, a three-month high signaling faster growth at the start of Q2 despite the Iran conflict. Manufacturing PMI jumped to 54.0 (a 47-month high), Manufacturing Output at 55.7 (48-month high), and the Services Business Activity Index climbed to 51.3 from 49.8. Output prices rose at the sharpest pace since mid-2022, reinforcing the sticky-inflation risk. S&P Global's Chris Williamson characterized the composite as consistent with the economy struggling to manage annualized growth in excess of 1%, with services acting as the principal drag.

DOL WEEKLY CLAIMS Initial Claims Rose to 214K for Week Ended Apr 18

DOL data released April 23 showed initial claims increased 6,000 to 214,000 for the week ended April 18, modestly above the 210,000 Bloomberg consensus. The four-week moving average ticked up 750 to 210,750, and the broader labor market remains within the historically healthy range. For Friday's session the print reinforces a slow-drift softening rather than an outright rupture in labor, aligning with Waller's condition-based rate-cut framing.

KANSAS CITY FED April Manufacturing Composite +10, Raw Material Prices Spike

The Kansas City Fed's April manufacturing survey composite came in at +10, down slightly from +11 in March but still expansionary. New orders for export slipped to -3 — the only outright negative component. The standout signal was a sharp rise in raw material prices, flagged by KC Fed assistant VP Cortney Cowley as activity expanding “but raw materials prices increased sharply.” Forward expectations strengthened, with the future composite rising to 18 from 16. The print argues for a goods-price impulse that could leak into core goods PCE, echoing the S&P flash PMI output-prices jump.

CHICAGO FED CFNAI -0.20 in March

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.20 for March, the lowest reading since November 2025, down from a revised +0.03 in February. Three of four category groups weakened: production-related indicators contributed -0.20 (versus +0.13 prior), sales/orders/inventories -0.01, and personal consumption/housing -0.01. Only employment-related indicators improved, adding +0.02 versus -0.15 in February. The print is consistent with a below-trend economy in March before the April flash PMI rebound, framing the soft patch as potentially narrow.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Dropped to 95.8, 11-Month Low

The latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, an 11-month low and below the 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index surged 4 points to 92, far above its historical 68. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg flagged oil-price shock as a key driver. The April NFIB print is due May 13 and will be a key read on whether oil-shock damage deepened or reversed with the ceasefire.

FANNIE MAE April Forecast Hikes 2026 Mortgage View to 6.3% Q2

Fannie Mae's April forecast marks a hawkish revision: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.3% in Q2 2026 and 6.1% for the balance of 2026 and 2027, up from the March forecast of 5.7% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027. The revision is explicitly tied to the post-February 27 Iran conflict shock that pushed rates higher for five straight weeks. Home-price growth was revised higher as well: +3.4%/+3.8%/+3.2% across Q2-Q4 2026. The forecast anchors the “higher for longer” backdrop filtering into GSE duration, mortgage REITs, and homebuilder guidance ahead of April 29 FOMC.

NAR Existing-Home Sales Fell 3.6% in March; Record Median Price

NAR reported existing-home sales fell 3.6% month-over-month in March to a 3.98 million SAAR, with the median sales price hitting a record March high of $408,800 and inventory at 4.1 months. Sales fell month-over-month in all four regions; year-over-year sales rose in South and West, fell in Northeast and Midwest. NAR cut its full-year sales forecast: existing-home sales now expected +4% for 2026 and new-home sales flat.

WALLER · APR 17 NABE Two-Scenario Framework

Governor Waller's April 17 NABE speech — the last Fed speech before the April 11-30 blackout — laid out a two-scenario framework for policy into the second half of 2026. Scenario One: the Iran ceasefire holds, energy prices stabilize, inflationary pressures ease, and the Fed has room to cut later in 2026 to support labor. Scenario Two: conflict re-escalates, oil stays elevated, and the Fed cannot cleanly project. Waller characterized the supply-shock backdrop as “one transitory shock after another,” a signal the Committee will look through the first-round oil-CPI impulse unless it spills into wages or expectations. Net-immigration-driven lower labor-force growth is the other key constraint in his framing.

MUSALEM · APR 1 AEI 2026 Baseline

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem's April 1 AEI speech laid out a baseline in which 2026 real GDP grows close to potential, unemployment holds near current levels, and core inflation begins gradually easing toward 2% in the second half of the year. He flagged downside risks from Middle East conflict and unsettled tariff policy, noting higher fuel, aluminum, and fertilizer prices could weigh on consumer and business spending in 1H26. The remarks pre-date the blackout and anchor the “patience” posture investors expect to be ratified at the April 28-29 FOMC statement.

FEDS NOTES · APRIL CLUSTER Tariffs, Labor Force, Expectations

The Federal Reserve Board's 2026 FEDS Notes index published an April cluster that frames the macro debate: April 2 — Murray & Vidangos on “Labor Force Growth, Breakeven Employment, and Potential GDP Growth”; April 8 — Minton, Ray & Somale on the economic effects of tariffs using only publicly available data; April — Eck, Hoang, Mix & Ray on “Mind the Gap: Announced versus Implied Tariff Rates in Recent Trade Policy Episodes”; April 13 — Salter/Villar on inflation expectations, and a note on wage and income growth expectations before, during, and after the pandemic period. The cluster signals that Board staff is actively quantifying the tariff and immigration shocks Waller referenced.

NY FED LIBERTY STREET Treasury Market Liquidity Best Since 2021

NY Fed's Liberty Street Economics posted several notes in April: Dyer & Fleming found Treasury market liquidity briefly worsened after the April 2, 2025 tariff announcement but then improved and reached its best level since 2021 by early 2026; Copeland & Engbretson on the Fed's administrative rates versus balance sheet as two tools influencing money-market conditions; Cho & Williams on “The R*-Labor Share Nexus.” The Treasury-liquidity result is important because it argues the fundamental plumbing is healthy even as geopolitical shocks ripple through rates.

CHARLIE BILELLO Markets Price 98% Probability of Fed Hold

Bilello's April 22 “Week in Charts” captures the market-implied path into next week's FOMC: 98% probability of holding at 3.50-3.75% and a 2% implied chance of a hike to 3.75-4.00%. With the Fed firmly in the April 11-30 blackout, Friday's tape is driven by second-derivative data and earnings — no fresh Fed commentary is possible until the statement. Bilello separately noted the S&P 500 is +22% off the April 7 low, the 61-day correction was the longest since the 2022 bear, and both sentiment and flow have normalized.