Goldman Sachs — Equity Strategy 22x · 7,600

Goldman’s strategy desk, in early‑April work co‑authored by outgoing chief US equity strategist David Kostin and successor Ben Snider, reaffirmed a 7,600 year‑end S&P 500 target premised on +12% EPS growth into a $305–$309 print and a 22x forward multiple they describe as “justified by earnings durability.” The desk frames the macro backdrop as Goldilocks with AI productivity gains broadening beyond mega‑cap tech. Goldman analyst Gabriela Borges separately maintained Buy and a $600 PT on Microsoft, citing slowing M365 deceleration and a Copilot adoption inflection over the next nine months.

Morgan Stanley — Mike Wilson 7,800 · lows in

Mike Wilson told CNBC on April 14 that “the lows are in for the year” for the S&P 500 and that a new bull market began in April with the end of a three‑year rolling recession. Morgan Stanley’s published target is 7,800 by year‑end, with EPS expected to rise 17% in the coming year and 12% the year after, supported by AI efficiency gains and broader pricing power. Heading into Microsoft Wednesday, MS named MSFT a top pick and identified 39% Azure constant‑currency growth — one point above the high end of company guidance — as the “magic number” investors need to see, with the desk pointing to a $625B RPO backlog as the underwrite.

BofA — Michael Hartnett, Flow Show 25/25/25/25 +26% YTD

BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, in his April 24 Flow Show, highlighted that an equal 25% stocks / 25% bonds / 25% cash / 25% commodities allocation is up roughly +26% YTD, on track for its best year since 1933. He said the run is not for all but argues the returns force allocators to raise low exposure to commodities. Hartnett separately flagged $972bn YTD into cash funds — the third‑largest year ever — as a sign of caution beneath the surface, a positioning crosscurrent at odds with the headline rally.

Wells Fargo — Sector Rotation IT favorable / Energy unfavorable

Wells Fargo Investment Institute went favorable on Information Technology and downgraded Energy to unfavorable on April 6. On the analyst side, Wells Fargo cut NXP Semiconductors to Equal Weight with a $235 price target (from $265) ahead of NXPI’s April 28 print, citing a weakening auto backdrop. The same shop reiterated bullish stances on KLA tied to “2nm momentum” and on LRCX, lifting LRCX’s target to $250 from $145 on memory‑shortage durability through 2026. The juxtaposition signals analog/auto weakness while WFE/memory equipment remains a high‑conviction long.

Citi — Asset Allocation & Single Stocks US equities up; Comm Services down

Citi Research upgraded U.S. equities at the asset‑allocation level on April 16, favoring defensive and quality, and downgraded Communication Services to Underweight. Citi analyst Monique Pollard issued a double‑downgrade on Flutter to Sell from Buy on the same date; the firm separately downgraded Autodesk to Neutral with a $246 PT, cut DocuSign to Neutral on AI competition concerns, and downgraded Insulet to Neutral citing rising competition in patch insulin pumps.

Yardeni Research — Ed Yardeni 7,700

Ed Yardeni, who flagged the March 30 low, reaffirmed his year‑end S&P 500 target of 7,700 in late‑April commentary, calling for record bottom‑line numbers, broadening participation, and an economy that refuses to falter. In a Bloomberg piece dated April 22 he cautioned that war‑related risks are far from over given the Hormuz situation and stalled diplomacy — a directional caveat that maps cleanly onto today’s tape.

Rosenberg Research — David Rosenberg deflation thesis

David Rosenberg dissents from the consensus stagflation narrative, arguing higher oil prices will trigger a cost‑push squeeze on real incomes and purchasing power that ultimately drives disinflation rather than persistent inflation. He expects inflation to come crashing down by year‑end with a still‑cooling labor market reinforcing the trend — a frame that reads the UMich final 49.8 (still record‑low region) and the NY Fed gas‑expectation spike to 9.4% as demand destruction rather than inflation impulse.

Fundstrat — Tom Lee 7,300 · best 18‑24 months ever

Tom Lee told CNBC the bottom is in, with 90–95% of the war‑related selling already past, reiterating a 7,300 year‑end S&P 500 target. In April 21 commentary on hedge‑fund repositioning he said the market is set up to enter one of the best 18–24 month periods we have ever seen, driven by hedge fund risk‑on and sidelined retail cash redeploying. The framing puts the burden of proof on disconfirming evidence — a Mag‑7 capex disappointment Wednesday is the cleanest path to such a disconfirmation.

The Kobeissi Letter — flow color $428B YTD buybacks

The Kobeissi Letter flagged in late‑April X posts that Russell 3000 buyback authorizations have surged to a record $428 billion year‑to‑date, +36% YoY and +176% above the same period in 2020. At the historical ~90% execution rate, US corporates are on pace to deliver one of the largest buyback bids in history into the back half of 2026. Separately, Kobeissi argues the bond market — not oil — is the real Iran‑war pressure valve, with the 10Y up roughly 50bps to ~4.42–4.47% during the war and mortgage rates at 7‑month highs; they label 4.50–4.70% as Trump’s “Policy Shift Zone” where intervention becomes necessary.

Charlie Bilello — Compound Capital CPI 3.3% / 61 months above 2%

In his April 17 and April 24 Week in Charts work, Charlie Bilello noted the S&P 500 took two‑plus months to fall 10% from January but less than three weeks to surge back to all‑time highs with a +13% vertical rally. He highlighted CPI rose to 3.3% in March, the highest since April 2024 and the 61st straight month above the Fed’s 2% target, framing the Fed near‑certain April 29 hold against persistent above‑target inflation.

Apollo — Torsten Slok wages picking up again

Apollo’s Daily Spark from Torsten Slok, dated April 27, flags wage growth picking up again across multiple measures — a development that complicates the “disinflation glide path” story in front of the FOMC and adds a labor‑side stickiness layer to Waller’s oil/tariff inflation concerns. Read alongside the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations one‑year inflation print at 3.4% and the gas component spiking to 9.4%, the wage data tilt the Fed’s risk balance further toward the inflation side.

Jonathan Krinsky — BTIG FEATURED TECHNICAL ANALYST

Jonathan Krinsky, in an April 21 CNBC segment, said he wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P pulls back from current levels, with a decisive break of 6,700 opening the door to a test of the 200‑day moving average around 6,582 — a level he frames as a buyable zone. Krinsky has flagged a striking software‑vs‑semis divergence, with the SW/SOX ratio sitting roughly 43% below its 200‑day MA — exceeding levels around the dot‑com top — and recently called for a meaningful rebound in software. He has also pointed to a bullish VIX divergence (VIX failing to make a new high while SPX briefly broke March lows) as a sign of waning downside momentum.

Carter Worth — Worth Charting

Carter Worth told CNBC on April 24 that healthcare is the worst‑performing sector YTD with every indication of more downside. He cites XLV breaking the trendline from the 2025 tariff lows, a two‑year double‑top formation, and a six‑month head‑and‑shoulders top, with healthcare at 10‑year relative lows to the broader market. He has also recommended selling Palantir with a downside objective of about $100 — an AI‑darling tell that bears watching given Mag‑7 capex risk this week.

JC Parets — All Star Charts

All Star Charts (JC Parets/Strazza) published April 25 work flagging energy markets as poised for fresh gains after a recent shakeout, alongside April 24 trade ideas in metal 3D printing and constructive technical reads on Texas Instruments and ServiceNow. The desk message is rotation back into energy and select industrials/tech as the broader uptrend resumes — a clean cross‑check on the Hormuz oil‑bid persistence into the FOMC meeting.

VIX Term Structure — CBOE / VIX Central

Spot VIX sits ~18.71 inside the normal 15–20 band after peaking near 31 on March 27 during the worst of the Iran conflict. Term‑structure data shows near‑term futures still trading in slight backwardation versus longer‑dated contracts — a configuration that occurs only ~16% of the time historically and signals dealers still see Hormuz/FOMC tail risk despite the broader Greed regime in the CNN gauge. The combination of complacent single‑stock optionality (Equity P/C 0.53), still‑hedged index books (SPX P/C 1.06), and front‑end VIX backwardation describes a tape that is bullishly pre‑positioned but still institutionally underwriting downside protection — the textbook setup for a sharp move on a Wednesday capex surprise in either direction.

Citadel Securities — Equity Snapshot · Hedge Fund Flow Color

Bloomberg’s Apr 27 Markets Wrap led with the Axios report that Iran offered the U.S. a proposal to reopen Hormuz, easing concerns talks had stalled and lifting global risk — MSCI’s Asia Pacific share benchmark rose 1.7% and TSMC surged 6% to a record. NAAIM and the AAII print together describe an active‑manager community that has re‑engaged risk into the FOMC meeting, while Hartnett’s $972bn YTD into cash funds shows the marginal allocator is still on the sidelines. Net read: bullish positioning in active books, defensive positioning in passive cash.

Reuters Morning Bid — Mike Dolan Oil + chips

Dolan frames the day as a dissonance between resurgent geopolitical risk and an undeterred AI/tech bid. Brent crude touched a three‑week high near $108/bbl as Strait of Hormuz traffic remains at a crawl with no new peace talks scheduled, while Pakistan continues mediation efforts. Despite this, chipmakers led Asian indices to fresh record highs, and companies representing roughly 44% of S&P 500 market cap report this week. He flags Tesla lifting its 2026 capex plan to over $25 billion as a sign hyperscaler/AI spending continues unabated. Goldman Sachs’ raised Q4 Brent forecast to $90/bbl frames the new energy floor.

CNBC Daily Open — US edition

CNBC’s flagship morning brief argues investors are deliberately tuning out a thicket of warning signs — stagflation chatter, stalled Iran talks, and rising oil — to keep the bid in megacap tech and global equities going. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh records overnight while South Korea’s Kospi briefly touched a new high. Brent advanced 2.75% to $108.23 and WTI traded around $96.77, but tech earnings optimism is dominating positioning ahead of Wednesday’s Magnificent Seven prints. The piece sets up a clear risk: if any of MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN miss on capex efficiency, the “look past warnings” trade unwinds fast.

CNBC Daily Open — Asia edition BoJ hawkish hold

The companion Asia‑focused Daily Open reframes Tuesday’s narrative around central banks rather than geopolitics, with the BoJ kicking off a heavy CB week ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% but cut its FY26 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.0% and lifted core CPI to 2.8% from 1.9% — a hawkish‑tilted hold the desk reads as supporting yen strength into the Fed. Nikkei surged 1.38% to a record 60,537.36 and the Kospi jumped 2.15% to 6,615.03. The piece argues geopolitics is taking a back seat as earnings season ramps and the Fed/Powell decision approaches.

FT FirstFT (Americas) China orders Meta unwind

The FT’s Tuesday FirstFT leads with Beijing ordering Meta to unwind its $2 billion acquisition of Chinese AI startup Manus — a material China‑tech regulatory shock landing the same week Meta is scheduled to report Q1 earnings (Wednesday). The brief also flags Italy extraditing an alleged Chinese spy to the US and the German chancellor’s remark that Washington is being “humiliated” by Iran. Together these stories sharpen the geopolitical overlay on AI/big tech that has dominated tape commentary into FOMC/earnings week.

FinancialJuice — Morning Juice

FinancialJuice’s pre‑Europe note flags April CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00 ET as the day’s marquee US data point given consumer spending is ~70% of US GDP, with the prior March print at 91.8 (vs 91.0). The desk also previews the BOJ hold and the heavy US earnings dock (UPS, KO, GM, V, SBUX, HOOD) headed into FOMC. The framing: consumer confidence and Big Tech capex commentary are the two near‑term tape‑movers, with oil at $97–98 keeping headline inflation risk live for the Fed.

Benzinga Pre‑Market $18.59T mkt cap event

Benzinga’s pre‑market lead frames Tuesday–Thursday as a $18.59 trillion market‑cap event risk window with five Magnificent Seven names and a heavy mid‑cap earnings slate. Tuesday before‑the‑bell prints highlighted include Corning (consensus $0.69 EPS on $4.26B revenue, +28.07% EPS / +17.05% rev), UPS, KO, GM, with Robinhood (~$0.39 EPS), Booking ($17.78 EPS / $4.61B rev), and Seagate ($3.50 EPS / $2.95B rev) after the close. The desk flags the Fear & Greed gauge still in ‘Greed’ with the S&P at record highs, setting a high bar for beats.

Seeking Alpha — Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha’s flagship leads into Tuesday with the same anchor narrative dominating other desks: Magnificent Seven prints (MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN Wednesday, AAPL Thursday) with combined 2026 AI capex projected at $649B vs $411B prior. The brief notes that ex‑Nvidia, FactSet has Mag‑7 EPS growing only 6.4% this quarter vs 10.1% for the rest of the S&P 500 — a setup that puts capex justification under the microscope. Stocks closed at fresh records Monday with futures little changed pre‑FOMC.

Bloomberg Five Things (Americas)

Bloomberg’s morning brief threads three macro themes for Tuesday: Trump pushing China to bring more to the table ahead of restarted trade negotiations, Turkey’s economic problems remaining unresolved, and Elon Musk navigating multiple corporate fronts (Tesla capex, Musk‑Altman trial, X). The brief sits alongside Bloomberg’s coverage that oil is steadying as the US weighs Iran’s Hormuz proposal with the strait still effectively shut, keeping Brent in the $108 zone.

Rio Times — Global Economy Briefing ZEW −17.2

A consolidated overnight macro readout: Iran via Pakistani mediators proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz while deferring nuclear talks, but Hormuz traffic remained at zero and WTI surged to $97.82. BoJ held at 0.75% but slashed FY26 GDP to 0.5% (from 1.0%) and raised core CPI to 2.8% (from 1.9%). Nikkei +1.38% to record 60,537.36; KOSPI +2.15% to 6,615.03. European data deteriorated sharply: ZEW collapsed to −17.2, German PPI +2.5% MoM, German services PMI 46.9 — every German confidence/activity indicator pointing down.

Newsquawk — Week Ahead

Newsquawk’s Week Ahead (April 27–May 1, 2026), surfaced via global‑view.com, frames the FOMC April 28–29 meeting as Powell’s potential final FOMC alongside BoJ, BoC, ECB, BoE decisions and US PCE/GDP/ISM data — a 72‑hour cluster that will leave macro positioning materially different at the Friday close. Newsquawk emphasizes statement language as the only catalyst given the 99.9% pricing for hold.

Wedbush — Dan Ives AAPL $350 top pick

Wedbush senior analyst Dan Ives wrote ahead of the April 28–30 reporting cluster that this is a “monster week” for Big Tech earnings and that he expects more good news on the horizon from results/guide as the AI Revolution “steamrolls ahead.” Ives flagged MSFT specifically with constructive expectations and reiterated AAPL as a top pick with a $350 Street‑high target. He sees iPhone 17 cycle as a multi‑year catalyst and foldable iPhone as the next super‑cycle.

Goldman Sachs — Gabriela Borges MSFT $600

Goldman’s equity strategy team led by Peter Oppenheimer argued the recent selloff in Big Tech opened a valuation window not seen in 50+ years, expecting tech‑sector EPS to grow 44% YoY in Q1 2026 and account for 87% of total S&P 500 EPS growth. Goldman analyst Gabriela Borges maintained a Buy and $600 PT on Microsoft (~61% implied upside at the note), citing slowing M365 deceleration, improving Copilot data, and adoption inflection over the next nine months. Goldman expects performance dispersion across Mag 7 to widen as the market reprices AI capex efficiency.

Morgan Stanley — MSFT & T‑Mobile

Morgan Stanley said MSFT is one of its top stocks heading into earnings, identifying 39% Azure constant‑currency growth as the “magic number” investors need to see — one point above the high end of company guidance (37–38%). The firm raised its capex estimates but stressed that most spend is tied to near‑term revenue‑generating GPUs/CPUs supported by a $625B RPO backlog. Separately, MS named T‑Mobile its Top Pick with a $260 PT (~31.5% upside) and reiterated Spotify on track to blow past 300M paid users.

Citi Research — Multi‑ticker downgrades

Citi Research issued a double‑downgrade on Flutter to Sell from Buy on April 16. Citi separately downgraded Autodesk to Neutral with a $246 PT on April 10, cut DocuSign to Neutral on AI competition concerns, and downgraded Insulet to Neutral citing rising competition in patch insulin pumps. On April 16 Citi upgraded U.S. equities at the asset‑allocation level, favoring defensive/quality, and downgraded Communication Services to Underweight.

BMO Capital Markets — Cluster moves SAP $200 / FISV / MA

BMO Capital Markets reduced its SAP price target from $210 to $200 while keeping an Outperform rating, characterized as a modest near‑term trim ahead of further numbers. Separately on April 21, BMO downgraded Fiserv from Outperform to Market Perform, and on the same date initiated Mastercard with an Outperform rating, signaling confidence in payments‑network growth. The cluster shows BMO leaning bullish on networks (MA) while turning more cautious on payments processors (FISV) and trimming European software multiples.

RBC Capital — Liberty Energy / LSEG

RBC Capital raised its price target on Liberty Energy to $32 from $27 on strong results while keeping a Sector Perform rating. RBC also maintained Outperform on London Stock Exchange Group on April 24 and raised the target to 13,600 GBp, implying roughly 38% upside. Both moves reflect post‑earnings confidence in oilfield services topline and continued conviction on LSEG data/analytics franchise.

Nick Timiraos — WSJ Chief Economics

WSJ’s Nick Timiraos has framed the Fed transition as the most unusual ever, arguing that even a Trump‑aligned successor would face institutional and data constraints in delivering aggressive cuts. With March 2026 CPI at 3.3% YoY (up from 2.4%) and NFP +178k beating expectations, Timiraos has emphasized the labor market will determine the Fed’s path. Heading into the April 29 FOMC, he highlighted the “lose‑lose” optics for Powell as the Committee weighs whether March’s inflation overshoot is transitory or a reason to hold longer.

Steve Liesman — CNBC

Liesman’s April 24 framing piece walked through how a Fed hold on April 29 maps to consumer borrowing costs (mortgages, autos, credit cards) given current FFR at 3.50–3.75%. The CNBC Fed Survey backdrop is that traders see no chance of an April cut and ~10.3% odds of a 25bp hike at the meeting. The piece reinforced the consensus that the April 29 statement language — not the rate decision — is the market‑moving variable, especially around inflation vs. labor risks.

The Kobeissi Letter — bond market > oil

Kobeissi has argued that oil is no longer the biggest threat to markets — bond yields are. The 10Y note has risen ~50bps since the Iran war began (3.92% to ~4.42%), with mortgage rates at 7‑month highs. They label the 4.50–4.70% band as Trump’s “Policy Shift Zone” where intervention becomes necessary to prevent a major economic downturn. They’ve also flagged ~43% market‑implied odds of a 2026 Fed hike — well above the ~8–10% the CNBC Fed Survey shows.

Walter Bloomberg — @DeItaone

The principal real-time relay for institutional desks tracking the Iran war headlines and the simultaneous Mag 7 earnings calendar has been running heavy on overnight Iran developments and the Axios report that Iran offered the US a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which lifted Asia chips and brought oil off the highs. MSCI’s Asia Pacific share benchmark rose 1.7% and TSMC surged 6% to a record on the news.

John Kemp — @JKempEnergy (Reuters)

Kemp’s daily energy roundup has collated key items on global oil exports, refinery operations and the geopolitical impact on energy markets. Backdrop: Brent crude topped $107 on Iran/Hormuz tension before the Sunday peace‑proposal report partly faded the rally, with WTI around $96. Kemp’s reads remain the desk‑side reference for inventory math and tanker‑flow disruption around the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Charlie Bilello — @charliebilello

Bilello’s most recent Week in Charts work covers SPX and Mag 7 trailing earnings growth (~15%) and NTM EPS up 20%+ YoY, U.S. tech sector +11% MTD into late April, and continuation of buybacks/wealth‑flow bid. Useful as the data backbone behind the “expensive but bid” market characterization heading into FOMC, and a clean cross‑reference to the Kobeissi $428B YTD buyback authorization print.

Anthony Pompliano — @APompliano

On the April 22 Pomp Podcast, Pompliano argued Bitcoin is in bull‑market phase, with the recent correction from highs near $126,000 down toward $60,000 having “reset” market conditions before a renewed leg. He emphasized continued ETF inflows and institutional adoption as structural tailwinds. Pomp’s Bitcoin treasury vehicle added 450 BTC and expanded share buybacks.

Willy Woo — @woonomic

Willy Woo argued on April 24 that despite Bitcoin’s safe‑haven properties, large capital pools don’t acknowledge BTC’s properties as it’s considered too new and untested, keeping it tethered to the NASDAQ in geopolitical stress. His CVDD Floor Model now sits at ~$45.5k and continues rising, anchoring his stated bottom range of $46–54k. He has also defended the four‑year cycle thesis against “death of the pattern” narratives.

CNBC Stock Market News — Earnings playbook

CNBC frames the busiest week of earnings season with five of the Magnificent Seven on deck — MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META Wednesday and AAPL Thursday — into the April 29 FOMC. Coverage emphasizes AI capex vs. revenue scrutiny: Alphabet 2026 capex roughly 2x 2025 levels, Meta full‑year capex disclosed at $115–135B (~2x 2025), AWS Q4 +24% (fastest in 13 quarters) with AI run‑rate > $15B, and Azure guide 37–38% with the Street looking for the 39% “magic number.”

Polymarket / CME FedWatch

Polymarket and CME FedWatch show traders pricing roughly 99.9% odds of no change at the April 28–29 FOMC, with a small ~10.3% tail probability of a 25bp hike given the March CPI surprise (3.3% YoY vs prior 2.4%) and resilient NFP (+178k). With no SEP/dot plot at this meeting, the statement language and Powell presser carry outsized interpretive weight on whether the Committee treats the inflation overshoot as transitory or as a hold‑longer signal into 2H 2026.

Bloomberg Markets Wrap — cash open color

Bloomberg’s Markets Wrap led with the Iran Hormuz proposal and a second‑leg risk‑on Asia open: MSCI’s Asia Pacific share benchmark rose 1.7% and the EM index hit a record. Asian chip stocks outperformed with TSMC surging 6% to a record. Oil pared gains from the Sunday spike that had Brent above $107 before reaccelerating into Tuesday on no fresh diplomatic progress. The piece reinforces the “tech bid + oil bid” tape that defines the FOMC‑week setup.

Tesla Q1 Reaction Aggregation — capex tell

Tesla’s Q1 2026 print beat — adjusted EPS $0.41 vs $0.37 expected; revenue $22.39B vs $22.64B expected — but the call disclosed $5B above prior capex guidance and a total $25B 2026 spend on AI software/chips and manufacturing. Shares initially rose ~4% AH then erased gains. Robotaxi went live in Dallas and Houston, joining Austin. Sell‑side reaction characterized this as the “second‑worst” net profit and delivery quarter of the last 12 — an underwhelming read despite the beat. Sets up cautious tone ahead of MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/META Wednesday.

Atlanta Fed — GDPNow

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real Q1 2026 GDP growth fell to 1.2% on April 21 from 1.3% on April 9, with a downward revision concentrated in private domestic investment (6.3% to 5.6%) and government expenditures (1.5% to 1.1%) more than offsetting a lift in personal consumption (1.1% to 1.4%). The next scheduled update is Wednesday April 29, the same day as the FOMC and the BEA’s advance Q1 GDP print — the model and the official release will collide. Trajectory keeps the soft‑landing tape intact even as the Iran energy shock drags on private capex.

Chicago Fed — CFNAI

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index slid to −0.20 in March 2026, the weakest reading since November 2025, from a revised +0.03 in February. Production‑related indicators flipped from +0.13 to −0.20, sales/orders/inventories from +0.05 to −0.01, while only the employment subcomponent improved (+0.02 vs −0.15). The three‑month moving average fell to −0.03 from +0.03, brushing the threshold above which historical recessions have been signalled.

University of Michigan — Final April Sentiment

The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April was revised up to 49.8 from the preliminary 47.6 against a 48.0 consensus, but the headline still ranks as the weakest reading on record on the post‑1978 series. Subcomponents: Conditions 52.5 (vs 50.1 prelim, 55.8 March) and Expectations 48.1 (vs 46.1 prelim, 51.7 March), with one‑year inflation expectations at 4.7% (down a tenth from prelim 4.8%) and five‑year at 3.5% (vs prelim 3.4%). The print formalizes a real consumer downshift even as the SPX prints records.

NY Fed — Survey of Consumer Expectations

The NY Fed’s SCE released April 7 showed median one‑year inflation expectations rising to 3.4% in March from 3.0% in February, with three‑year up a tenth to 3.1% and five‑year unchanged at 3.0%. Gas‑price expectations surged to 9.4% from 4.1% (highest since March 2022) on the Iran/Hormuz energy spike, with food at 6.0% (vs 5.3%) and rent at 7.1% (vs 5.9%). The print pre‑conditions Wednesday’s FOMC statement language on whether the inflation overshoot is “transitory” or warrants a hold‑longer signal.

NFIB — Small Business Optimism

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March fell 3.0 points to 95.8, slipping below the 52‑year average of 98.0 for the first time since April 2025. Profit trends collapsed 11 points to a net −25%, the largest single contributor; the NFIB Employment Index fell 1.9 points to 101.6; the Uncertainty Index jumped 4 points to 92, well above its 68 historical norm. Taxes (19%), labor quality and inflation are the top reported problems, supporting a stagflation‑tilt narrative beneath the SPX record.

Apollo — Daily Spark

Apollo’s Torsten Slok flagged in his April 27 Daily Spark that wage growth is picking up again across multiple measures, complicating the disinflation glide‑path narrative. Slok separately warned earlier in April about the basis trade and the leveraged carry positioning that has built up against a flatter yield curve, framing it as a hidden tail risk if the FOMC statement language tilts the wrong way.

Conference Board — Leading Economic Index

The Conference Board’s most recent US Leading Economic Index print showed the LEI inched down 0.1% in January 2026 to 97.5, following a 0.2% decline in December, with six‑month change at −1.3% (half the rate of the prior six months’ −2.6%). The Coincident Index rose 0.3% to 115.3 and the Lagging Index rose 0.3% to 120.0. The Conference Board has flagged that further releases of LEI/HWOL/ETI/Global LEI may be delayed due to the federal government shutdown.

Christopher Waller — Last Live Voice Pre‑Blackout

In his April 17 economic outlook speech (last pre‑blackout Fed voice), Christopher Waller said the Iran‑driven oil shock combined with tariff price effects “may lead to a more lasting increase in inflation, as we saw with the series of shocks during the pandemic.” He pegged labor‑market breakeven employment as “close to zero” while flagging that employers are “walking a tightrope” vulnerable to a tipping shock. He said he would maintain the policy rate at the current 3.50–3.75% range “if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market” — the cleanest available read on Wednesday’s hold rationale.

Alberto Musalem — St. Louis Fed President

Musalem at AEI on April 1 supported the FOMC’s hold at 3.50–3.75% and said the current setting “will remain appropriate for some time.” He flagged risks tilting unfavorably on both sides of the dual mandate (weaker labor market, more persistent above‑target inflation) and warned policymakers should be cautious about automatically looking through supply shocks when underlying inflation is already above target. He cited Middle East conflict, unsettled tariff policy, and higher fuel/aluminum/fertilizer prices as Q1H drags. This frames Wednesday’s likely statement: hold, two‑sided risk, no signal of cuts.

JPMorgan Global Research — FOMC Preview

JPMorgan’s April FOMC preview, alongside Bloomberg and IBTimes summaries, codifies the consensus into Wednesday: Fed holds the FFR target at 3.50–3.75% on April 29 (Powell’s penultimate meeting), holds for the rest of 2026, and JPM models a 25bp hike as base case in Q3 2027. The 2026 core PCE projection has already been lifted to 2.7% from 2.4% on the oil shock, with March CPI at 3.3% YoY (vs 2.4% prior) on a 21.2% monthly gasoline jump. Seven of 19 FOMC participants want zero 2026 cuts, five want 50bp+ — a fractured committee that elevates statement language as the only catalyst.

FEDS Notes & NY Fed Liberty Street — Research Channel

With FOMC speakers in blackout (April 11–30), the Board’s FEDS Notes have been the live signal channel: an April 2 piece by Seth Murray and Ivan Vidangos on labor force growth, breakeven employment, and potential GDP growth effectively backstops Waller’s line that breakeven employment is near zero; an April 13 piece on inflation expectations and wages bears on the FOMC’s framing of the March CPI overshoot. NY Fed Staff Reports 1191 and 1193 (investment/MP and AI/MP respectively) sit alongside Henry Dyer and Michael Fleming’s April 2 “Treasury Market Liquidity Since April 2025,” addressing the bond‑market plumbing as 10Y yields press 4.33%.