Futures
Pre‑Market Briefing

JPMorgan’s published view into the April 28–29 FOMC is that the Fed stays on hold through 2026 and that the next move is a 25 bp hike in Q3 2027 — an outlier hawkish stance versus the Goldman/Barclays three-cuts-in-2026 base case. The framing puts JPM closest to BlackRock’s ‘higher government bond yields are here to stay’ thesis and furthest from JPMAM’s in-house two-cut call, leaving the firm’s own desks straddling the path.

Goldman and Barclays each pushed the first cut back to June from a previously expected March, but both still call for three 25 bp cuts on the year. Both desks frame today’s hold as priced and view Powell’s last presser as the inflection on guidance. Goldman’s longer-term gold target sits at $5,400 vs JPM’s $6,300, with both firms bullish on gold even as Tuesday’s pre-FOMC pullback to $4,583 (-2.35%) trimmed positioning.

Subramanian and team published a ‘new phase’ note holding BofA’s year-end SPX target at 7,100 — the most bearish on the Street — with EPS growth in the teens (~13–17%). Since late February, S&P 500 EPS estimates have risen 3% lifting consensus growth to ~17% YoY, but Subramanian expects multiple compression as inflation pressures consumption, new tech issuance weighs on valuations, and TMT compresses on capex intensity. Overweights: health care and real estate.

Ed Yardeni’s base case has the S&P 500 chopping around 7,000 while geopolitical/policy stalemates hold, then grinding higher in 2H toward a 7,700 year-end target if a deal lands by mid-year. He raised the ‘Roaring 2020s’ base case probability to 60% from 50%, lowered meltup/meltdown odds to 20%, and held the bear case at 20%. Yardeni still thinks the March 30 low is the year’s low — consistent with Bilello’s observation that the SPX took two months to fall 10% but less than three weeks to surge 13% to fresh highs above 7,100.

24/7 Wall St cites Tom Lee’s well-timed call earlier in April for a market bottom and rally that took the S&P 500 to and above 7,000. His 2026 framing has been ‘joy, depression and a rally’ compressed into one volatile year, with a strong second half. Lee continues to recommend offensive sector positioning into the back half — the cleanest counterweight to Subramanian’s 7,100 ceiling and El-Erian’s reform-not-rates focus.

El-Erian’s framing puts Powell’s last meeting and the Warsh succession as a moment for Fed reform — the Fed needs to admit mistakes, run scenario analysis instead of point estimates, and rebuild credibility. He has separately flagged AI-driven employment ‘decoupling’ from GDP as 2026’s emerging risk, directly relevant given tonight’s hyperscaler reports that will set the AI capex narrative for the rest of the year.

Krinsky has flagged 6,700 as the pivotal SPX level into Powell’s last presser and tonight’s Mag 4 prints; a decisive break would open a test of the 200-day moving average around 6,582 (~3% lower). The November low at 6,521 is the deeper structural line, with a close back above ~6,900 the trigger needed for bears to lose control. He has also flagged the equity put/call ratio at its highest since last spring as contrarian-bullish fuel if positioning gets too defensive, and earlier this month called the Bitcoin rebound a tell for software stocks bottoming — consistent with BTC holding near $76,555.

Worth’s most recent on-record chart call (CNBC, April 24) is that healthcare is the worst-performing sector YTD with a ‘bad’ setup — a two-year double-top and a 6-month head-and-shoulders top in XLV implying further downside. Bigger picture, the S&P printed an all-time high of 7,178.74 on April 27 with the 200-day around 6,710 and RSI ~70.6 (overbought). Worth’s overhead frames Krinsky’s structural pivot at 6,700 as the line below ATH that the bull case can’t afford to lose.

Bilello’s mid-April thread highlighted the cognitive dissonance heading into Powell’s last meeting: equities at all-time highs, credit spreads near all-time tights, CPI 61 consecutive months above the Fed’s 2% target and averaging ~4%/yr since 2019, yet the Fed has been actively expanding the balance sheet. The S&P took over two months to fall 10% from its January peak but less than three weeks to surge 13% to fresh highs above 7,100 — a vertical move that has positioning gauges flashing late-cycle even with a 99.9%-priced hold.

BlackRock argues government bond yields will stay higher for longer as the Iran war keeps inflation elevated, leaving central banks in a policy bind. Inflation pressures were bubbling under the surface even before the conflict, dimming hopes for 2026 rate cuts. They have lengthened their tactical investment horizon back to 6–12 months. The Strait of Hormuz normally moves a fifth of global oil and LNG, and the EM stocks/bonds outperformance from 2025 carried into 2026 until the Middle East flare-up and dollar jump.

Wren forecasts tailwinds (rate cuts, deregulation, AI, tax incentives) drive S&P 500 to 7,500 by year-end with a 7,400–7,600 range. WFII 2026 macro: US GDP +2.4%, CPI 2.8%, Fed funds 3.00–3.25% by year-end. Sector overweights: Industrials and Utilities tied to AI, energy and infrastructure demand. AI seen broadening from concentrated tech phenomenon to broad-based growth catalyst — a thesis that tonight’s Mag 4 capex prints either validate or break.

JPMAM expects developed and emerging market equities to lead with 10–25% upside. Constructive on inflation downtrend (subdued goods, slowing wage and services inflation) keeping the Fed dovish through H1 2026. House forecast: two Fed cuts in 2026 with one further in 2027, no recession threat. Themes for 2026: uneven monetary policy, relentless AI cycle, deepening polarization. The wide range of FOMC views frames both risk and opportunity in fixed income.

Sonders’ 2026 outlook expects solid fixed income returns driven by central bank rate cuts in response to a weakening labor market. If fiscal aid expands, labor market holds, and consumer spending stays on track, there is some upside risk to inflation, capping cuts at two or three. She has flagged Q1 earnings as the real tell because sell-side has done little revision work to incorporate the war’s implications — expect input-cost flags, withdrawn guidance, and wide-band ranges from companies tonight.

Reuters frames today as Fed Day and likely Powell’s final FOMC as chair, with the Senate scheduled to vote on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation. Fed funds futures price 100% probability of a hold; futures imply no policy change until well into 2027. The FOMC is described as more divided than ever, with the Trump-Powell relationship and Warsh’s incoming approach as central themes. Markets traded carefully into the open with S&P 500 e-minis up 0.1% and Asia ex-Japan flat amid the simmering Washington-Tehran impasse.

Yahoo’s live blog reports US stock futures broadly higher pre-open: S&P +9.50 to 7,180.50 (+0.13%), Dow +50 to 49,347 (+0.10%), Nasdaq +117 to 27,285.75 (+0.43%) ahead of Big Tech earnings and Powell’s likely final rate announcement. Four Mag 7 names report after the close starting with Alphabet. Senate Banking Committee votes today on Warsh’s nomination on the same day as Powell’s last meeting.

Morningstar lays out consensus for tonight’s four Mag 7 reports. MSFT EPS ~$4.04 (+17% YoY) on revenue ~$81.4B (+16% YoY), with Azure capacity constraints and Copilot uptake the key questions per analyst Dan Romanoff. GOOGL EPS ~$2.83 on ~$107B (+11% YoY), Google Cloud expected to show breakneck growth on Gemini adoption and TPU sales to Anthropic. META EPS ~$7.51 on ~$55.5B (+31%); 2026 may be the first year Meta net ad sales exceed Alphabet’s. AMZN EPS ~$2.11 on ~$177.2B (+14% YoY) with AWS the story.

Combined 2026 AI infrastructure capex commitments are staggering: Meta guided $115–135B, Alphabet $175–185B, Amazon ~$200B; total Mag 4 capex roughly $300B for 2026. Street consensus cloud growth: Azure ~31%, Google Cloud ~28%, AWS ~18% (constant currency). Implied moves on MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN running near 5–7% based on options pricing. Q1 Mag 7 group earnings expected +20.3% on +22% revenues. AI monetization (Copilot uptake, Gemini Cloud revenue) is the litmus test for capex justification.

Brent traded above $113–115, the highest since June 2022, on continued Hormuz closure (~20% of global oil trade halted) — what the IEA called the largest supply shock on record. WTI traded above $99 after a 3.7% Tuesday gain. The UAE announced it will exit OPEC next month for production flexibility. Trump said Iran has asked the US to lift its naval blockade while talks continue; Washington is weighing sanctions on Chinese refiners and countries paying Hormuz transit fees. Goldman: another month of closure means Brent above $100 throughout 2026.

Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 AM ET alongside the updated Monetary Policy Report with refreshed forecasts for inflation, GDP and employment. A Reuters poll of 41 economists found all 41 expect a hold; more than 80% see no change through rest of 2026. Markets price 93% chance of hold at 2.25%, where the rate has been since October 2025. Backdrop: Canada CPI jumped to 2.4% YoY in March (from 1.8% Feb) on Middle East energy pressure.

ADP’s preliminary release (companion to Wednesday’s full April report) shows US private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs per week for the four weeks ending April 11. The figure feeds into today’s market read on the labor market ahead of the FOMC. Prior March print: private payrolls +62,000, annual pay +4.5%.

ZeroHedge frames Wednesday as the biggest day of April, if not H1 2026: the Fed meets while four Mag 7 names (AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOGL) report, accounting for almost 20% of S&P market cap. The DOJ’s Friday decision to end its criminal probe into Powell likely clears Warsh’s path. Wall Street watching for how concerned the Fed is on the lasting impact of higher oil prices.

CNBC reports Treasury yields broadly unchanged into the FOMC: 10-year at 4.358%, 2-year flat at 3.848%, 30-year at 4.946%. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 3.50–3.75% with markets pricing 100% probability. Powell’s post-meeting press conference is positioned as a potential valedictory; Kevin Warsh appears on track to take over when Powell’s term ends in May.

Seeking Alpha previews 180 S&P 500 reporters this week including five Mag 7 (AAPL, MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOGL). Wednesday’s FOMC widely expected to be no-move and Powell’s last as chair. Notes Warsh’s confirmation had been held up during the investigation into Powell, with a Senate Banking Committee vote expected Wednesday. Flags scenario in which a new chair could be a dissenter pushing for a June cut without majority.

Benzinga notes the S&P 500 fell 0.49% Tuesday to close at 7,138.80, pulling back from record highs as investors took profits ahead of the FOMC and Mag 7 earnings. Investors brace for results from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft after the close, looking for signs that heavy AI capex is translating into growth. Pre-open earnings: Amphenol (APH) consensus $0.94/$7.09B; Brinker (EAT) $2.86/$1.47B.

DeItaone relayed comments from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stating the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened without removing all Iranian mines — only a safe shipping corridor is needed, not full demining, and transit could resume quickly if a pathway is cleared. The framing runs counter to last week’s Washington Post report that mine-clearing could take six months, and is materially bullish for tanker traffic / bearish for Brent risk premium if confirmed by Pentagon action.

DeItaone amplified an FT scoop that China’s state-owned refiners (Sinopec, CNPC) have applied for government permits to resume fuel exports starting May after Beijing’s earlier restrictions. The driver is surging domestic stockpiles and weak local demand. Released Chinese product into Asia would partially offset Hormuz-driven distillate tightness in the region, particularly jet fuel for Asian buyers running low. Tape-relevant for refining margins (cracks compress) and for Brent if China product flows ease physical pull on crude.

Kobeissi flagged Bloomberg/Kpler analysis that Iran’s onshore unused storage capacity is down to 12–22 days and that Tehran may need to cut roughly 1.5 million barrels/day of oil production by mid-May to avoid spillage. Iranian tankers are reportedly piling up just outside Hormuz with nowhere to discharge. The implication is a potential involuntary supply cut on top of the existing Hormuz disruption — and a hard deadline that could force Iran’s hand on the US ceasefire / blockade-lift proposal Trump is currently weighing.

Sonders has been surprised by equity-market resilience given the war shock but flags this Q1 earnings season as critical because sell-side has done little revision work to incorporate the war’s implications. EPS estimates have moved up but mostly via energy and a few names (Micron, Nvidia). She expects companies to flag input-cost (energy) impact, withdraw guidance, or give wide-band ranges. On inflation: she would not rule out reignition; sees CPI hovering north of 2.5%; flags Qatar LNG outage taking ~17% of global production with a 3–5 year recovery timeline.

Krinsky pointed to a VIX divergence and Bitcoin’s strength near $78–79K earlier this month as evidence software/risk-on had bottomed for now and would not retest March lows in the near term — a tactical bullish view into the Mag 7 prints. Structurally he keeps 6,520 (November low) as the more important S&P support than the 200-DMA at ~6,615, with an earlier-month note that a move toward 6,000 carried ‘decent’ probability if 6,520 fails.

Subramanian and the BofA team published a ‘new phase’ note: BofA holds a year-end SPX target of 7,100 (most-bearish on the Street), with EPS growth in the teens. Since late February, S&P 500 EPS estimates have risen 3% lifting consensus growth to ~17% YoY. She expects further multiple compression as inflation pressures consumption, new tech issuance weighs on valuations, and TMT compresses on capex intensity. Overweights: health care and real estate.

Tuesday’s $44B 7-year note auction stopped at 4.175% with a 2.51 bid-to-cover ratio — matching the one-year average but the lowest cover ratio recorded in 2026. Indirect bidder participation was 58.4%. The tepid demand into Powell’s final FOMC and a Brent-driven inflation backdrop reinforces the bond-vigilante / supply-indigestion thesis Lawrence McDonald has flagged: hedge funds shorting into colossal incoming Treasury supply.

Pompliano argued Bitcoin is in a renewed bull phase after the late-Q1 correction from highs near $126K to ~$60K ‘reset’ positioning. He framed BTC as a key scarcity asset alongside oil and said the macro regime is stagflation-like — commodity-driven inflation alongside slowing growth — favoring limited-supply assets. With BTC near $76–79K and ETF flows reaccelerating (April monthly inflows $2.43B, IBIT AUM ~$54B / ~49% of US spot BTC ETF market), positioning aligns with the Bitwise ‘Integration Era’ framing.

Kemp’s analysis tied to the IEA Oil Market Report: global observed oil inventories fell ~85 mb in March, with stocks outside the Middle East Gulf drawn down a striking 205 mb as Hormuz flows were choked off — described by IEA as the largest supply shock on record. Kemp argued the rising economic, political and diplomatic costs of the war make a negotiated ceasefire and Hormuz reopening more attractive than escalation. Tape-positive if any US/Iran framework lands; otherwise inventories continue draining at unsustainable pace.

McDonald’s framework heading into the April FOMC: 10-year yields ~100 bps higher since the September cut, mortgages following lockstep, hedge funds shorting into colossal incoming bond sales from the US Treasury — what he reads as bond-vigilante fingerprints. He argues the AI capex super-cycle plus fiscal spending plus falling-rate policy bias sets up a major rotation into hard assets (commodities, energy, copper) and warns of an upcoming copper crisis 2026–2028 reminiscent of the 1970s OPEC oil shock. Tactical setup: long hard assets, defensive on duration.

Bilello posed the cognitive-dissonance question heading into Powell’s last FOMC: equities at all-time highs, credit spreads near all-time tights, CPI above the Fed’s 2% target for 61 consecutive months and averaging ~4%/yr since 2019, yet the Fed has been actively expanding the balance sheet (resuming asset purchases / QE-lite reserve-management buying). Frames why Powell’s tone Wednesday matters disproportionately on the QT/balance-sheet side, especially with oil pushing March CPI to 3.3%.

CNBC’s setup: the four hyperscalers addressed the Street three months ago with collective 2026 AI capex above half a trillion. Updated stack: Amazon ~$200B FY26; Alphabet $175–185B; Meta $115–135B; Microsoft tracking ~$146B FY26 (toward $170B FY27). Investors want proof spending is converting to durable revenue/profit growth — Azure 38% c/c is the line in the sand at MSFT; Google Cloud breakneck growth and TPU sales (incl. Anthropic) at GOOGL; Meta Q1 ~+30% YoY rev guide; AWS rate and AMZN advertising at AMZN. Helium supply tightness from oil-shock spillover into semis is a fresh wildcard.

Pre-market positioning ahead of Powell’s last FOMC and tonight’s MSFT/GOOGL/META/AMZN prints: S&P futures 7,180.50 (+0.13%), Dow futures 49,347 (+0.10%), Nasdaq futures 27,285.75 (+0.43%) — leadership tilt to mega-cap tech. WTI +3.37% to $103.30 keeps the inflation overhang live. Tuesday’s session closed weak: SPX -0.49% to 7,138.80 on softness tied to OpenAI-slowdown reports plus the oil up-move.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.6 points to 92.8 in April from a revised 92.2 in March, beating Bloomberg consensus of 89. The Present Situation Index slipped 0.3 to 123.8, while the Expectations Index climbed 1.2 to 72.2 — back above the recession-warning 80 threshold by less than expected. Confidence held up despite material consumer concern about gasoline prices spiking on the Iran war and Brent’s run past $114; spending intentions rotated toward ‘cheap thrills’ and necessary services and away from big-ticket discretionary.

Zandi published the Vicious Cycle Index, a recession-detection gauge that incorporates labor force participation alongside the unemployment rate to capture discouraged workers, and said it now signals the US may already be in recession. He notes the indicator has flagged every recession since WWII without a false positive. Zandi frames the oil shock from the Iran war as a major catalyst for jitters, with stagflation concerns rising as growth and unemployment both deteriorate. The framing sits in tension with Wren and Yardeni’s constructive year-end calls.

Per the BEA’s 2026 release calendar, the Q1 2026 GDP Advance Estimate is scheduled for Thursday April 30 at 8:30 AM ET — one day after the FOMC decision, not concurrent. The advance estimate sits alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow’s last published Q1 nowcast of ~1.24% (April 21) and the Chicago Fed CFNAI which fell to -0.20 in March from +0.03 in February. Today’s macro tape is dominated by the Fed decision, BoC, ADP and Mag 7 prints, but the GDP print lands tomorrow morning before AAPL.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8 — below its 52-year average of 98.0 and at the 31st percentile of the series, the lowest reading in 11 months. The frequency of positive profit trends dropped 11 points to net -25%, and net expectations for better business conditions fell 7 points to net 11% — the third straight monthly decline and lowest since October 2024. The Uncertainty Index spiked to 92 (vs 68 long-run average) as inflation re-emerged as a top-three concern.

The NY Fed’s March Survey of Consumer Expectations showed median 1Y-ahead inflation expectations rose 0.4 ppt to 3.4%, 3Y-ahead +0.1 to 3.1%, with 5Y-ahead unchanged at 3.0%. The 1Y-ahead median gas-price growth expectation surged 5.3 ppt to 9.4% — the highest since March 2022 — driven by the Hormuz oil shock. Job-finding expectations improved but job-loss and unemployment expectations worsened. The print directly informs Powell’s anchored-expectations narrative for today’s presser.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March came in at 52.7, up from 52.4 in February and above the 52.5 consensus, marking a third consecutive month of expansion. The headline strength was overshadowed by the Prices Paid sub-index jumping to 78.3 from 70.5 (and from 59 in January) — signaling escalating cost pressure ramping into Powell’s last meeting. The April ISM print is due around the start of next week and will be the first read of factory price pressure with full Hormuz oil-shock pass-through.

Fannie Mae’s April Housing Forecast projects total housing starts holding near 1.3 million annually in 2026, with home sales rising to ~5.5 million units by late 2026. The Fannie Mae HPI is expected to keep growing but at a slowing pace. Mortgage rates: 30Y fixed averaging 6% in Q1 2026, gradually easing to 5.6% by Q2 2027 — implying limited near-term affordability relief even if Powell signals dovish today. Originations are forecast to rebound on purchase activity and a lower but sustained refi share.

The Conference Board notes that further releases for the US LEI may be delayed due to a federal government shutdown impact on data flow. The most recent available US LEI data is from January 2026, which fell 1.3% over the six-month period from July 2025 to January 2026 — half the rate of decline versus the prior six months (-2.6%). The slower negative trajectory suggests recession-signal momentum has eased even as level remains weak, but the absence of a fresh April print is itself a data gap going into Powell’s last presser.

The FOMC’s April 28–29 statement releases at 2 PM ET with Powell’s presser at 2:30. Polymarket places implied probability of no change at 99.9%, with the federal funds target range expected to hold at 3.50–3.75% for a third straight meeting. Pre-release commentary pointed to language consistent with the higher-for-longer framework Powell has telegraphed since the Iran war hit energy prices — activity expanding at a solid pace, job gains low, inflation somewhat elevated.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q1 2026 GDP growth was last published at 1.241% on April 21, down from 1.3% on April 9 and April 7. The model’s next update is scheduled for April 29 (today, ahead of tomorrow’s BEA advance release). The trajectory is well below trend and reflects Hormuz-driven trade disruption and inventory effects compounding into Q1; today’s GDPNow update could pivot the BEA-eve narrative if it diverges meaningfully from the April 21 print.

The Federal Reserve Board published several notable FEDS Notes in April directly relevant to today’s policy debate. April 8: Minton, Ray and Somale on tariff assessment, developing methodology to detect tariff effects on consumer prices in real time using public data. April 13: Salter and Villar on inflation expectations and their relationship to wages. A third April note on the gap between announced and implied tariff rates adds to the trade-policy-pass-through research stack Powell will be expected to cite under presser questioning.

The April Beige Book, prepared at the New York Fed and based on data collected on or before April 6, reported overall activity rose at a slight to modest pace in 8 of 12 districts; 2 reported little change, 2 reported slight-to-modest declines. The conflict in the Middle East was cited explicitly as a major source of uncertainty complicating decisions on hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms moving to a wait-and-see posture. Households were squeezed by gasoline-price-led increases in auto/health/home insurance.

The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting tool publishes daily nowcasts of headline CPI, core CPI, headline PCE and core PCE using a small set of high-frequency inputs including daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices, and monthly CPI/PCE. With Brent at $114.64 on April 29 and gasoline expectations spiking in the NY Fed SCE, the nowcast tool is the cleanest real-time read on whether the energy-shock pass-through is accelerating into April CPI.

The Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for April showed production accelerating sharply: production index jumped 12 to 19.0, capacity utilization +13 to 19.8, new orders +4 to 9.9, shipments +13 to 15.0. The general business activity index slipped 2 to -2.3, while company outlook bounced 7 to +3.0 and uncertainty fell 8 to 17.9. Key for Powell: the finished-goods prices index hit its highest level since July 2022 — evidence the Iran-driven energy shock is pushing into pricing. Texas executives explicitly cited higher fuel costs as the primary negative impact of the war.

The Richmond Fed’s Fifth District manufacturing composite rose to 3 in April from 0 in March — its highest reading in 20 months and a return to modest expansion. New orders rose to 8 from 4 and employment improved to 0 from -2; shipments stayed flat at -2. On prices, the average growth rate of prices paid increased somewhat while prices received decreased slightly; firms expect both measures to moderate over the next 12 months. The combination of strengthening orders and softening output prices stands out in the current oil-shock regime.

The KC Fed’s April manufacturing composite came in at 10, down marginally from 11 in March, with positive readings across all five inputs (production, new orders, employment, delivery time, raw materials inventory). Forward expectations rose: future composite +2 to 18, with expectations for production and new orders advancing further. AVP Cortney Cowley flagged that ‘raw materials prices increased sharply.’

The SF Fed’s April FedViews titled ‘Volatile Oil Markets Cloud the Economic Outlook’ projects headline PCE inflation rising to ~3% by end-2026 before declining gradually toward 2% by end-2027. CPI jumped to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February — a sharp acceleration tied to higher energy costs. The SF Fed sees acyclical factors including energy keeping inflation elevated near term, but expects the pulse to dissipate in H2 under the assumption that tariff effects on prices fade and oil prices stabilize.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.20 in March from +0.03 in February — a swing toward below-trend growth. Three of four broad categories deteriorated and made negative contributions: production-related fell to -0.20 from +0.13. The 3-month moving average dropped to -0.03 from +0.03. Of 85 indicators, 51 made negative contributions vs 34 positive. The print is a soft macro tell consistent with GDPNow’s 1.24% Q1 nowcast.

Musalem’s April 1 AEI speech laid out a baseline of real GDP growing close to potential in 2026, unemployment holding around current levels, and core inflation gradually easing toward 2% later in the year. He flagged labor-market risks weighted to the downside with three-month payroll growth narrowly concentrated. On inflation, he sees upside risk: St. Louis Fed staff estimates indicate tariffs explain about half of excess 12-month inflation above 2%. Households are getting ~$1,000 more per year on average in tax refunds, providing a cushion.