Cannon Pre-Market Briefing — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

ACT ITrade Today

What's the setup, and what do I do before the bell.

01 — THE 90-SECOND READ

An Energy Shock Arrived and the Index Refused to Take Delivery

REGIME

Deep positive gamma,
energy repricing,
Wednesday binary

Cash closed 655 points above the dealer gamma flip — the widest long-gamma cushion this letter has logged. That is the mechanism that let a 6.6% crude day pass without an index print. It is also the mechanism that stops working when the cushion is spent.

Oil, twice
September WTI settled near $82.13 Monday, up 6.58% on Cannon’s own tape, and is bid again at 84.42 — close to eight percent across two sessions. Brent is through $89.90. The catalyst is a hardening on both sides: the President claims the Navy holds “100%” control of the waterway, while Tehran has added war reparations to a reopening list already running to the blockade, sanctions and a US withdrawal from the region.
The tape did not care, and that is the story
Energy rose 4.63% Monday and crude 6.58%; the S&P closed −0.06% with VIX at 15.48. Underneath, technology fell 1.10% and semiconductors dropped 2.9% — a rotation dressed as a flat day.
Goldman's hedge fund desk names the risk, and it is not the Fed
Tony Pasquariello, who covers the largest hedge funds in the world for Goldman, put the trading community at plus six on a minus-ten-to-plus-ten scale Monday afternoon, down from plus nine in late June. Asked for the clear and present danger to equities he did not say the Fed. He said the back end. Section 05.
The long end is already moving
The thirty-year is at 5.276%, up 3.3 basis points overnight, with the ten-year at 4.729%. Treasury sells threes at 13:00 today, tens tomorrow and bonds Thursday — supply into a curve that has refused to rally on any soft labour print this summer.
Wednesday reads a month that pre-dates all of it
July CPI lands tomorrow at 08:30 — consensus +0.1% headline, +0.2% core. None of this week's crude is in it. The market gets a clean number about a period that ended before the thing it is worried about began.

02 — THE SCOREBOARD

The Board & Yesterday's Calls

Instrument	Last	Chg	Reference
E-mini S&P Sep ES	7,771.75	−5.00	Implied open −12.36.
E-mini Nasdaq Sep NQ	29,725.75	−11.25	Implied open −31.05.
E-mini Dow Sep YM	53,998	−65	Implied open −117.98, weakest of the four.
E-mini Russell Sep RTY	3,024.70	−0.30	Cash about 1% under its record.
S&P 500 cash Mon close	7,753.11	−4.53	4.53 under Friday's record close.
Nasdaq 100 / Composite	29,621.80	−0.34%	Composite 26,605.36. Semis −2.9%.
Dow / Russell 2000	53,975.98	−0.11%	Russell 3,017.40, −0.56%.
2-year Treasury	4.256%	+1.7bp	63bp above the effective funds rate. Section 09.
10-year Treasury	4.729%	+3.1bp	2s10s +47.3bp, steeper.
30-year Treasury	5.276%	+3.3bp	The instrument section 05 is about.
WTI Sep CL	84.42	+2.79%	Settled 82.13 Monday, +6.58% — the board’s biggest mover.
Brent Oct BRN	89.99	+2.59%	Settled ~87.72. Murban +6.6% — the Gulf grade leads.
Gold Dec / Silver Sep	4,429.4	+9.3	Silver 64.90. Both rose with crude Monday: gold +1.05%, silver +3.35%.
Dollar index DXY fut	99.765	+0.06%	EUR/USD 1.1537, USD/JPY 159.30.
VIX / Bitcoin	15.48	+0.02	Oil VIX 56.06, VXN 23.04. BTC 64,015.

Sentiment & Flow Gauges

Gauge	Reading	What it says
Dealer gamma flip, SPX	7,097.87	POS GAMMA Cash sits 655 points above it. Levels in section 04.
CNN Fear & Greed	65	GREED From 60 a week ago. 2026's range is 14 to 71.
AAII bull / neutral / bear	37.0 / 25.0 / 38.0	Spread −1.0 — retail is not the crowded side. Surveyed to Aug 5.
CBOE put/call, total / equity	0.86 / 0.61	No hedging bid ahead of the print.
VIX curve, M1 / M2	16.96 / 18.60	Full contango against spot — calm now, paid for later.
S&P above 50 / 200-day	65.2% / 71.2%	Both fell Monday on a flat index — internals gave up more than the tape. BofA's Bull & Bear gauge holds at 9.7.

Positioning keeps getting more extreme, not less. In the week to August 4 leveraged funds added 50,075 E-mini longs and 82,598 shorts at once, deepening a net short to 329,999 contracts while asset managers barely moved a net long of 937,033. Fast money is not short because it is bearish; it is short because it is carrying more of everything — the fuel behind a squeeze and the accelerant under a break.

Yesterday's Calls Graded

HIT

Cannon Desk, Monday — that a light calendar under positive gamma pins a market and drifts it into Wednesday. The index closed −0.06% and the VIX moved two hundredths of a point on a day crude added five percent. Textbook.

HIT

Cannon Desk, Monday — that the long end had no reason to come down and was the honest scoreboard. It went the other way: thirty-year up about six and a half basis points, the steepest move on the curve.

HIT

Mark Newton, Fundstrat, Aug 7 — rate-sensitive sectors breaking down beneath a healthy index. Utilities fell 0.97% Monday on the day the thirty-year rose.

OPEN

Cannon Desk, Monday — that the metals bid was debasement rather than geopolitics. The clean test arrived a session later and refused to settle it: a genuine supply shock landed and the metals went with it, gold +1.05% and silver +3.35% alongside crude. Both readings survive the day.

MISS

Michael Hartnett, BofA, Aug 7 — rotate to defensives, duration and the dollar. Three sessions on, duration sold off and the dollar has gone nowhere. Still unwithdrawn.

OPEN

Tom Lee's 7,900–8,000 by month-end needs 1.9% with three weeks left. Krinsky's equal-weight air-pocket call starts today. Yardeni's 8,250 was restated Monday night and carries.

03 — CALENDAR & SCENARIO MAP

A Thin Session, an Auction, Then the Only Print That Matters

When	Event	Cons. / Prior	Note
Tue 06:00	NFIB small business optimism, July	97.3 / 97.4	Hiring intentions are the line that matters after −23,000.
Tue 08:15	ADP weekly employment change	—	The high-frequency labour read between monthly prints.
Tue 10:00	Existing home sales, July	4.05M / 4.09M	NY Fed household debt at 11:00. Mortgage rates are the constraint, not inventory.
Tue 13:00	3-year note auction	prior 4.179%	First of three this week. The front end is the easy one; Thursday's bond is not.
Wed 08:30	July CPI, headline m/m & y/y	+0.1% / 3.4%	Prior −0.4%, 3.5%. Ten-year auction 13:00, EIA 10:30.
Wed 08:30	July core CPI, m/m & y/y	+0.2% / 2.5%	Prior 0.0%, 2.6%. Services is where forecasts disagree.
Thu 08:30	July PPI · jobless claims	+0.2% / 201K	Hammack 08:15, Barkin 08:40. 30-year auction 13:00.
Fri 08:30	July retail sales · Michigan	+0.2% / 54.0	Michigan one-year inflation expectations, 4.2% prior — the survey most exposed to a pump price.

Earnings are thin: Sea and Cardinal Health before the bell, CoreWeave and Super Micro after it. Scenario language below is descriptive of how desks and pricing frame outcomes, not a recommendation.

July CPI, Wednesday 08:30 ETone session of drift first

COOL — CORE AT OR UNDER +0.2% M/M

The September hike prices further out and the front end does the work, as it did on payrolls. The qualifier is bigger than usual: a cool July says nothing about an August in which crude is eight percent higher, so the relief has a two-week shelf life — and Thursday's bond auction sits inside it.

HOT — CORE AT OR ABOVE +0.3% M/M

September returns to a coin flip and the tell is the long end rather than the front, because a curve that has already backed up on supply has no cushion left to give. Under this much positive gamma the index reaction likely lands smaller than the rate move deserves — which historically means it resolves later rather than not at all.

04 — LEVELS & STRUCTURE

The Widest Dealer Frame of the Year, and a Pivot Right Under the Screen

Cannon daily support and resistance levels for August 11 2026

Cannon Daily Levels · August 11, 2026 · Pivot, Support & Resistance

Cannon Edge daily futures snapshot for August 11 2026

Cannon Edge · Close, 30-Day and 52-Week Range, Short- and Long-Term Trend

Gamma level	SPX	ES Sep · +18.6	Role in today's tape
Call wall	8,000	8,019	Ceiling, 3.2% overhead. Dealers have almost nothing to defend on the upside inside this week's plausible range.
Put wall	7,600	7,619	Floor, 2.0% below spot — the first level where a mechanical bid appears.
Gamma flip	7,097.87	7,117	Regime line. Cash closed 655 points above it — nowhere near flipping to short gamma.

Read the frame, not the levels. Four hundred SPX points separate the walls and the regime line sits eight and a half percent below the tape — a very wide, very deep long-gamma book with almost no structure inside it. That is the configuration in which market makers are paid to fade every push both ways, and in which a six-and-a-half percent oil day produces a four-point index move. It is also a book that gives no warning: no strike between here and 7,600 switches mechanical support on.

Cannon's grid is tight where the options book is loose. The September pivot sits at 7,778.92, R1 at 7,794.83 and S1 at 7,759.83 — a thirty-five point band, and ES has spent the overnight below that pivot. Whether that pivot caps the tape or gets reclaimed is the first question of the cash session; S2 at 7,743.92 and S3 at 7,724.83 mark the range beneath.

The instrument with the real levels this morning is crude: Cannon's September WTI pivot is 80.75, R1 83.72, R2 85.28 — and it is trading through R1 and pressing R2. A market past R1 before the open has already spent its average day's range.

Read Cannon’s trend columns across rather than down. Exactly two markets on the whole board are negative on both the short- and long-term trend: the thirty-year bond and natural gas. Gold, silver and copper are short-term up, the equity contracts are up on both horizons, and crude carries no trend flag at all — a market that has moved too fast for a trend to have formed. The one instrument the board marks broken in both timeframes is the one section 05 names as the risk.

ACT IIThe Read

Who is driving it, and what changed overnight.

05 — INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

New Voices and Moved Positions

Tony Pasquariello · Global Head of Hedge Fund Coverage, Goldman Sachs FULL INTERVIEW

He sat with CNBC's Closing Bell at 3:43 PM ET Monday — a seat that opens for him roughly four times a year. The positioning number is the headline. He calibrates the trading community from minus ten to plus ten. The year's low was minus four in late March, in the Iran context; the high plus nine or better in late June, at the peak of the momentum factor. Today he puts it at plus six: July shed serious risk on both gross and net, and what is left is, in his word, cleaner. That is the whole bull case in one number — not that people are bearish, but that they have room.

On August: a quiet month in capital markets with no blockbuster IPO coming, against what is on average the best month of the year for buyback executions — and, from his own desk, “our activity in August is running two times normal.” He bounds it carefully: after a strong fortnight, risk-reward is “somewhere middle of the road.”

On breadth he refuses the framing. Every sector is positive on the year, the index is up 14%, and technology is the second-best performer behind energy — so the equal-weight-versus-cap-weight argument is really a debate about tech, and tech has performed fine. Nine of eleven sectors grew earnings at double digits in Q2, the median company by 14%. Broadening did not come at the expense of the biggest muscle group; it came on top of it.

Then the part that should change how you read the week. Asked what knocks the market over, he did not say the Fed — Goldman's house view, which he attributes to Jan Hatzius, is a committee on hold for about the next year. His answer was the back end, as a global debt-and-deficit story running through Japan, the UK and Europe. Section 10 carries the supply arithmetic and the analogue he attached to it.

Jonathan Krinsky · Chief Market Technician, BTIG BEAR

Published into Monday afternoon from a note dated Sunday, and it is aimed somewhere unusual. Not at semis, where his July work sat, but at the equal-weight index — the broadening everyone has been calling healthy. “Our sense is a lot of buying has been done and the risk of an air-pocket is now much higher for the RSP. In other words, we don't see much juice left to squeeze.”

The frame is late 2021, when the index left a months-long sideways range with a 6% rally to a new 52-week high while high-beta momentum names were already 25% off their highs — a drawdown he calls “similar to what we are seeing right now.” “While history doesn't repeat, it often rhymes, and we think this recent ‘breakout’ is also likely to falter.” He puts no level and no time frame on it, which is unusually honest for a technician.

John Stoltzfus · Chief Investment Strategist, Oppenheimer NEW ITEM

Monday's direct answer to the stretched-valuation argument, arithmetic attached. With 443 S&P companies reported, profits are up 51% year over year on revenue up 14.6%, against a bottom-up estimate of 23.6% entering the season; 86% have beaten.

The load-bearing line is valuation: the forward multiple at 20.3 times is only 0.5% above its five-year average and 12.9% below the 23.3 times this cycle has already paid. His title was “Stay the Course.” Set against Krinsky, the two are not arguing about the same thing — one measures what has been earned, the other what has already been bought.

06 — DESK SHIFT TRACKER

The Board of Voices

Voice	Stance	Position & what changed
Tony PasquarielloGoldman Sachs	CONSTRUCTIVE	ON AIR Positioning cleaner after July, foundation solid, the danger is the long end. Section 05.
Jonathan KrinskyBTIG	BEAR	SETTLED Last week's stance ambiguity closed by his own words. Aimed at the equal-weight index, not tech. Section 05.
John StoltzfusOppenheimer	BULL	NEW 8,100 year-end. “Stay the Course,” on a 51% earnings quarter and a multiple half a percent above its own average.
Ed YardeniYardeni Research	BULL	RESTATED 8,250 year-end and 10,000 by the end of the decade, with an 80% subjective probability on his Roaring 2020s scenario. His worry list argues the Fed should hike soon. Section 10.
Dubravko Lakos-BujasJPMorgan	BULL	8,000, raised Monday from 7,800 on earnings alone with the multiple pinned at 20x. Unchanged since.
Mike WilsonMorgan Stanley	BULL	8,000. His named breaker is a ten-year above 5%; it is at 4.729% and rising.
Tom Lee & Mark NewtonFundstrat	BULL	8,000 both. Lee calls 7,900–8,000 inside August; his August–October drawdown warning is dormant five windows, unwithdrawn.
Michael HartnettBofA	BEAR	Bull & Bear Indicator 9.7, the extreme since 2021. Nought for three since Friday and unengaged by anyone.
John FloodGoldman Sachs	BULL	The execution desk's supply case for 8,000 — roughly $1.4tn of buybacks against a record $700bn of issuance, ~400 points above his own house strategist.
Helima CroftRBC Capital Markets	OIL RISK	NEW On CNBC Monday: strikes on Russian refining capacity create “deeper problems” than the Hormuz headline — a second, non-Iranian supply leg.
Subramanian & GolubBofA; Seaport	UNREVISED	7,100 and 7,900, set months ago and never revised. Not current calls.

Most of the rows above carry a year-end number of 8,000 or higher. The one genuinely new bearish voice this morning is a technician, and he is pointed at the part of the market everybody agrees is healthy.

07 — MACRO PRESSURE MAP

Where the Data Is Actually Pressing

Pressure	State	Read
Energy	REPRICING	Washington calls the Strait open and under its control; Tehran says it stays closed until the blockade, sanctions, troop presence and now war reparations are dealt with. Tanker traffic ran 8 to 15 vessels a day in early August against roughly 130 before the war.
Inflation	THE OPEN QUESTION	The first print the committee sees after three dissents to tighten — and a July print, which does not contain August's crude. The number that settles the September argument and the number reflecting the current shock are not the same number.
Rates & supply	BACKING UP	The whole curve rose Monday and the long end rose most, into three auctions in three sessions. Thursday's bond sale follows a hawkish dissenter and a producer price print.
Labour	DETERIORATING	July payrolls at −23,000 against expectations near +80,000, the second weak month running. In any other cycle that is a cutting sequence; here it is what took September hike odds from 67% to the mid-forties.
Overseas	MIXED	Tokyo closed for a holiday. Hong Kong −1.10%, Shanghai −0.82% as reopening hopes faded; Europe flat to lower.

The map's tension changed shape since Friday. For two months the argument was whether a soft labour market could pull the long end down; it could not. Now a second force is pushing the same instrument the other way, and it arrives through the commodity rather than the data. A curve backing up on supply and energy at once, into three auctions and a CPI print, is a different setup from a curve that simply refuses to rally.

08 — PORTFOLIO POSITIONING

The Names That Own This Morning

Name	Move	Why it matters
Intel INTC	−4.06%	Priced its upsized offering overnight: $20bn at $95 a share, raised from $15bn, about 210.5m shares, on a book reported above $100bn. The stock closed at 97.52 having broken $100 — the discount is the cost of the extra five billion.
Nvidia NVDA	−2.86%	217.55, the heaviest weight in a semiconductor complex that fell 2.9% on a flat index day. Reports Aug 26, the evening before Jackson Hole opens.
Apple AAPL	—	Jefferies' Edison Lee cut it to Sell, target $263.66 from $285.56, on the cancelled twentieth-anniversary all-glass handset and long-run iPhone pricing growth cut to 6.8% from 9%.
Alphabet GOOGL	—	Intelligent Alpha's Doug Clinton disclosed on Closing Bell Monday that he has sold the position — an action rather than a view, and the only hard fact from that segment.
Energy complex XLE, RIG	+4.63%	The only place Monday's oil move showed up in equities. Transocean added 8.75%; offshore and services led rather than the majors — a supply trade, not a demand one.
Tonight's reporters CRWV, SMCI	—	Both reporting into a session where their end market sold off.

The structural bid is what has absorbed all of this: the buyback window opens hardest through mid-August. A pinned book, a mechanical corporate bid and a pressed short base is a market that drifts up on no news — and gaps on the news it has not priced.

09 — FED WATCH

The Only Committee in a Decade Whose Risk Is Priced Upward

Metric	Level	Note
Fed funds target / effective	3.50–3.75%	Effective 3.63%. Held July 29.
July FOMC vote	9–3 hold	Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all dissented for a 25bp hike.
September FOMC, hike	~46%	From 67% a week ago. All of the move is the payroll print.
Next decision	Sep 16	With projections. No cut anywhere in the strip. Blackout starts Sep 5 — officials speak freely all week.
Jackson Hole	Aug 27–29	Kevin Warsh's first as chair, the day after Nvidia reports.

Hold the sign. Every reflex trained on the last decade reads a weak labour print as bad news that becomes good news through the cut it invites. There is no cut here. Friday's negative payroll number was good news because it postponed a hike — which means this week's inflation print is not a referendum on how soon policy eases, but on whether it tightens at all.

The chair has said almost nothing about rates since taking the seat, which puts unusual weight on two hawks speaking Thursday: Cleveland's Beth Hammack, who voted to tighten in July, at 08:15, and Richmond's Tom Barkin at 08:40. A July dissenter handed the microphone fifteen minutes before a producer price release is the closest thing this week has to guidance. And forty-six percent is not conviction — it is a coin flip with a lean, into a print that lands first.

ACT IIIThe Edge

What everyone else is not saying this morning.

10 — WHAT THE CONSENSUS IS MISSING

Three Things

Two men looked at the same sixty-three basis points on the same day and reached opposite conclusions.

Ed Yardeni's worry list, published Monday night, argues the two-year sits about seventy-five basis points above the funds rate and reads that as the bond market telling the Fed to raise soon. Pasquariello, on air seven hours earlier, walked through the identical spread and called it something else: funds at three and five-eighths, the two-year a little north of four and a quarter, so “there's going to be a little bit of risk premium in the price, and I think that's fine.”

The arithmetic matters first: against the 3.625% effective rate the two-year's premium is sixty-three basis points, not seventy-five — roughly half a hike, sitting exactly where the argument is. Then the substance. One man reads a priced risk premium as an instruction the committee has not yet followed; the other reads it as a cushion already paid for, which is why he can put the Fed in the background of his risk list rather than at the top. They are not disagreeing about the data. They are disagreeing about whether a market that has already priced something is warning you or protecting you.

The AI capex story and the duration story are the same story, and the bond calendar quadruples in twenty-four months.

Everyone has the trillion dollars of AI capital expenditure. Almost nobody has traced how it gets funded. Pasquariello did, and the figures are the most useful thing he said: investment-grade issuance from the hyperscalers themselves — not project finance wrapped around a data centre, but debt on their own balance sheets — ran around $100bn last year, is tracking near $250bn this year, and Goldman expects roughly $400bn next year. His phrase for it was a step change, and the mechanism is simple: you are adding more and more duration to the assembly line, and it takes time to absorb.

That reframes the long end as something other than a deficit story: it makes the most crowded equity theme on earth a structural seller of the exact instrument its own valuation depends on. The precedent he reached for is October 2023, when the back end backed up about 110 basis points and, in his words, stuck a knife in the Nasdaq for two or three months before receding. He is explicit that this is not a here-and-now problem — and it is still the only thing he named when asked what could upset the market, which is a strange thing for the street to be filing as a rates-desk footnote.

The print that is supposed to settle this week describes a month that ended before the thing everyone is worried about started.

Wednesday's release covers July. Crude's eight percent came in August. Gasoline is a direct headline input and energy passthrough is the mechanism every forecaster names as the difference between contained and broadening inflation — and none of it is in the number. The market gets a clean read on a period that pre-dates the shock, and it will trade that number as though it settled something.

Two things compound it. July is the last CPI the committee sees before a September decision three of its members already dissented on. And the machinery absorbing all of this — the four-hundred-point dealer frame in section 04 — is precisely what guarantees the market underreacts on the day. The pin is doing real work. It is doing it on stale information, ahead of a thirty-year auction, in the one week nobody gets a fresh reading on the variable that moved.

Eli G Levy

Cannon Pre-Market Briefing · Contact Cannon Trading Company
eli@cannontrading.com · cannontrading.com

Free. Always.

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Crude Added Eight Percent in Two Sessions Into a CPI Print, and the Index Closed Down Four Points.