Goldman Sachs — Commodities Desk Note (via The Market Ear / ZeroHedge)

Goldman explains why spot Brent has fallen 22% from its late-March peak despite still-low Hormuz flows

Goldman Sachs’ commodity desk addressed the question dominating energy-trader desks in a note circulated this morning via The Market Ear and ZeroHedge: why has spot Brent fallen 22% from its late-March peak even though Hormuz traffic remains depressed? The desk attributes the move to two main demand-related drivers — principally a weakening Chinese and broader Asian demand picture that has offset the Hormuz supply chokepoint premium previously priced in. The framing matters because it informs how the desk would re-rate energy if the Trump-Iran deal lands as flagged: the recovery in supply optionality on a Hormuz reopen would be marginal versus the demand-side fix Goldman now sees as the binding constraint.

Morgan Stanley — Mike Wilson, US Equity Strategy SPX 8,300 12-MO / 8,000 YE

12-Month SPX target hiked to 8,300 and year-end raised to 8,000 on a $339 2026 EPS print — “load up” any pullback

Mike Wilson lifted the 12-month S&P 500 target to 8,300 and the year-end 2026 target to 8,000 (from 7,800) on a fully earnings-driven upgrade — not multiple expansion. Morgan Stanley models 2026 EPS at $339 (+23% growth) and 2027 EPS at $404, with 8,300 sitting on about 20.5x forward. The drivers are rolling-recovery operating leverage, AI adoption, fiscal support, and a broadening capex cycle; sector overweights are Financials, Industrials and Healthcare with Consumer Discretionary upgraded. Tactical preferences are notable: Wilson is small-over-large for the first time since March 2021, and Software over Semiconductors. He framed any pullback as “an opportunity to load up.”

Desk view as last published — May 26, 2026

Deutsche Bank — Binky Chadha, Cross-Asset Strategy STREET-HIGH SPX 8,000

Year-end SPX 8,000 held; positioning has round-tripped back to underweight — a source of potential upside

Chadha carries the most bullish published year-end S&P 500 target on the Street at 8,000, roughly mid-teens implied upside from current levels. His framing highlights that equity positioning rebounded strongly off the April lows but has now round-tripped back to underweight — which he treats as a SOURCE of potential market upside, not a risk, on the standard underowned-into-upgrades logic. The earnings outlook he leans on expects the EPS boom to broaden beyond the highest-flying tech leaders into the rest of the market. Together with Wilson, Chadha anchors the Street’s bullish camp; combined with Citi’s 7,700 the bull-bear desk spread sits north of 5%.

Desk view as last published — May 26, 2026

Citi — Drew Pettit, US Equity Strategy SPX 7,700 / HOLD MULTIPLE

Citi held at 7,700 — “equities aren’t set up for a higher, sustainable multiple at this point”

On CNBC Power Lunch, Drew Pettit explained why Citi is NOT raising its S&P 500 year-end target despite strong Q1 earnings momentum. The base case stays at 7,700 — well below Morgan Stanley (8,000), Deutsche (8,000), and Yardeni (8,250) — with Pettit arguing that even as earnings do the heavy lifting, the multiple is not set up to expand sustainably from current levels: further upside requires more EPS, not re-rating. With Monday’s 7,599.96 cash close, Citi’s target is now essentially on top of spot — the relative cautious anchor among the bulge-bracket desks.

Desk view as last published — May 26, 2026

HSBC — Max Kettner, Global Cross-Asset Strategy MAX OW GLOBAL EQUITIES

Kettner maintains maximum overweight global equities, strongest underweight U.S. Treasuries

Max Kettner’s HSBC cross-asset framework keeps the desk at MAXIMUM overweight global equities with the strongest underweight in U.S. Treasuries among the bulge-bracket cross-asset notes. The thesis pairs with Yardeni’s “Go Global” lean (EM ex-China +39% YTD, KOSPI +28% YTD, Taiwan +14.4% in May) and with Goldman’s late-May STOXX 600 12-month target raise to 660 — international flows are still finding the US-vs-Europe valuation gap attractive. Kettner’s short-Treasury leg is the cleanest sell-side hedge against the Yardeni July-hike call and the four-speech Waller / Jefferson / Bowman / Powell easing-bias-removal sequence.

Desk view as last published — May 26, 2026

Iran & Hormuz Cluster — cross-tape implications

Tape goes Peace-On (Friday) -> War-On (Sunday-night strikes) -> Peace-Again (Tuesday) in three sessions — counter-flow is live

Trump told ABC he expects an Iran ceasefire/Hormuz-reopen deal “next week”: “a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory.” He reported a very productive call with Netanyahu, said no U.S. troops will go to Beirut, and that Hezbollah agreed all shooting will stop. Axios separately reported Trump unleashed an expletive-laden tirade at Netanyahu demanding a Lebanon truce. Counter-flow is live: Iran’s IRGC reportedly targeted a U.S.-owned commercial vessel with a cruise missile and launched strikes on Kuwait; a senior Iranian official told state TV renewed war with the U.S. is “inevitable”; the U.S. is pressuring Oman to cut diplomatic ties with Tehran (WSJ). The Mehr News framing — “the deal text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet” — captures the gap between Trump’s claim and the on-the-ground signal.

Eurozone Inflation Tape — cross-rates pressure

EZ Core CPI hawkish surprise at 2.5% YoY vs 2.3% expected; Services jumps to 3.5% from 3.0%; ECB Rehn frames June move as “insurance hike”

The Eurozone inflation tape on Tuesday morning was unambiguously hawkish. Headline CPI Y/Y came in at 3.2%, Core CPI surprised at 2.5% (vs 2.3% expected), and the Services component jumped to 3.5% from 3.0% — the strongest reading in this dataset since the recent disinflation began. ECB Vice President Olli Rehn was explicit overnight that any June rate move would be framed as an “insurance hike” — the European-rates corollary to Waller’s “cannot rule out hikes” framing and Yardeni’s out-of-consensus July-hike call for the FOMC. With Eurozone services running 3.5% and U.S. PCE 3.8% headline / 3.3% core, the global rate-cycle has flipped from synchronized easing to synchronized re-tightening risk in a matter of weeks.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence — demand-side framing

Confidence 93.1 (−0.7); two-thirds of consumers cite cutting back on spending; Iran war flagged by chief economist as the cause

The Conference Board’s May Consumer Confidence Index dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 (from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April). The Present Situation Index retreated 3.2 points to 121.2 while the Expectations Index rose 1.0 point to 74.4 — a bifurcated reading where consumers feel worse now but slightly better about the future. Chief Economist Dana Peterson directly blamed “the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensifying.” A special question found that two-thirds of consumers said they had cut back on spending overall due to rising prices, with most buying fewer items and delaying expensive purchases. This is the K-shaped lower-income pullback Liberty Street’s research has been documenting, now showing up in the national survey just as ISM Prices stays north of 80.

Charlie Bilello (Creative Planning) — tape framework

Bilello: SPX prints 5th straight ATH and first close above 7,600 ever; 23 ATHs YTD; 2026 EPS growth consensus +24%

Creative Planning’s chief market strategist Charlie Bilello set the trend-structure backdrop heading into Tuesday with a cluster of evening posts. Monday’s 7,599.96 cash close was the fifth consecutive S&P 500 all-time high and the 23rd of calendar 2026; it was also the first-ever close above 7,600 (a year ago the index was at 5,900). Consensus S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026 is running at +24% — a record relative to prior cycles, and the bull-case anchor that desks reference when defending the YE re-rating. The structural breakout, broadening earnings revisions, and the absence of distribution signals are the consensus “this works” frame; the BTC sub-$70K break and Tuesday’s modest red open are the first counter-signals worth watching against this run.

Cross-Asset Vol — the “Greed on Fear internals” pattern

VIX firm at 16.13 (+0.50%) against the BTC shake-out and a tape sitting at fresh ATHs

VIX at 16.13 marks a modest re-marking despite Tuesday’s constructive Iran/Hezbollah news, consistent with the bitcoin shake-out and the tape sitting against fresh all-time highs. The CNN F&G “Market Volatility” sub-component sits Neutral while the headline reads 57. The setup — Greed-coded price action on Fear-coded internals (breadth, strength, credit) — is historically a regime that resolves with a sharp rotation rather than another leg up. Layered with Goldman’s late-May vol-desk note that “skew is broken” with no fear of downside left in client conversation, positioning has continued to compress against a tape that just took out 7,600.

Yardeni Research — Morning Briefing OUT OF CONSENSUS

Yardeni extends his July rate-HIKE call to a broader hawkish-Fed / strong-USD framework hammering Asia — Australian stagflation flagged

Yardeni’s Tuesday Morning Briefing extends Monday’s explicit July rate-hike call to a broader thesis: a more hawkish U.S. central bank and stronger U.S. dollar are hammering Asian economies, driving currency depreciation and importing inflation. The piece points to specific exposure in net energy importers and AI supply-chain economies. Toby provides on-the-ground market color from Australia where “structural advantages became liabilities” and the RBA faces a stagflation tightening dilemma. Monday’s call — “FOMC raising the federal funds rate in July, after pivoting to a tightening bias at this meeting” — remains the leading-edge published macro view as the consensus debate over the next move shifts from a cut to a hike.

Tom Lee — Fundstrat, CNBC Squawk Box

Tom Lee: post-2026 conditions could deliver some of the biggest stock-market gains we’ve seen in our lifetime

Fundstrat managing partner and head of research Tom Lee joined CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday morning and argued that post-2026 conditions could deliver some of the biggest stock-market gains seen in a lifetime, citing the durable AI capex impulse, a recovering crypto cycle, and the IPO pipeline (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) reshaping market structure. Lee positioned the current setup as a launching pad rather than a topping pattern despite indices at all-time highs. The interview was a follow-on to his late-May “three market phases” framework and his maintained bull case that the Mag-7 bear is over even as breadth concerns persist.

Lance Roberts (Real Investment Advice) — retiree risk management

Roberts: trim 10–20% on a 40-week MA violation or breadth collapse, park in short-duration Treasuries / money-market above 4%

Lance Roberts at RIA argues the current setup justifies modest defensive trimming for retirees, distinguishing risk management (graduated 10–20% reduction) from market timing (binary in/out). He flags that the S&P 500 has logged nine consecutive weeks of gains and closed at the cash record, even as the median index stock sits 13% below its 52-week peak, breadth remains weak, positioning is stretched, seasonality is the worst window of the year, and the political cycle is historically poor. The procedure: sell 10–20% on a 40-week MA violation or a breadth collapse, park proceeds in short-duration Treasuries or money-market funds yielding north of 4%, rebuild in tranches when the index reclaims the 40-week MA.

Newsquawk Daily US Market Open (via ZeroHedge)

Equities broadly supported following constructive U.S.–Iran comments; JOLTs, Fed’s Hammack, and earnings (Dollar General, Palo Alto, ULTA) on tap

Newsquawk’s Daily US Market Open flagged Trump telling ABC News he expects an Iran deal “within a week” that extends the ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. futures lacking direction just shy of all-time highs while European bourses reversed Monday’s losses. Brent traded −1.4% on renewed Iran-resolution hopes; STOXX 600 +0.7% with Technology +2.7% and Basic Resources +2.2% leading; U.S. equity futures ES −0.2%, NQ −0.1%, RTY −0.2%. JGBs outperformed on a solid 10yr auction (avg yield 2.649%), DXY muted with EUR directionless as EZ CPI Y/Y came in at 3.2% (Services 3.5% from 3.00%; Core 2.5% vs 2.3% expected). U.S. day highlights: JOLTs, RCM/TIPP, Fed’s Hammack, plus earnings from Dollar General, Palo Alto Networks, and ULTA Beauty.

ZeroHedge — Axios on Trump-Netanyahu call

Trump reportedly ripped Netanyahu in phone call, demanded Lebanon truce after IRGC struck Kuwait

ZeroHedge surfaced an Axios report citing two U.S. officials and a source briefed on the call that Trump unleashed an expletive-laden tirade at Netanyahu over Israel’s Lebanon escalation Monday, and soon after announced that “shooting will stop” in Lebanon following the IRGC striking a U.S.-owned commercial vessel and launching strikes on Kuwait. The piece anchored the morning’s de-escalation narrative driving Brent lower and equity risk-on, and tied directly into Trump’s statement that he expects an Iran ceasefire/Hormuz reopening deal within the week. The story dominated overnight Iran-conflict desk attention into the JOLTS print.

investingLive (ForexLive successor)

ECB Rehn: June rate move would be an “insurance hike”; Marvell soars after Huang labels it “next trillion-dollar company”

investingLive’s Tuesday session preview led with ECB’s Olli Rehn framing any June rate move as an “insurance hike,” eurozone May inflation continuing to pick up (Services and core firm), and U.S. JOLTS as the U.S. data highlight. The desk flagged Marvell Technology shares soaring after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang labeled it “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex Taipei. The BoJ taper debate is heating up with the 10-year JGB yield at 30-year highs and yen approaching 160. Tech-led EU bourses, lower oil on Iran headlines, and a heavy central-bank speaker slate (Hammack, Bailey, Greene, Vujcic) frame the day’s risk drivers. ES JUN26 technicals: bearish below 7,589.75 and bullish above the 7,594–7,596.60 reclaim.

AP News — Financial Markets

Global shares mostly gain as Trump claims Israel and Hezbollah agree to tone down fighting

AP’s Tuesday markets wrap led with global shares rising after Trump said Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to dial back fighting, tying the move to a Netanyahu call and mediator-channel contacts with the Lebanese group. Europe traded higher: CAC 40 +1.0% to 8,223.71, DAX +1.1% to 25,275.57, FTSE 100 +0.3% to 10,372.39. Asia was mixed: Nikkei −0.3% to 66,734.24, Hang Seng +2.5% to 26,038.32, Shanghai +0.4% to 4,075.10. U.S. futures softened modestly with Dow futures −0.3% at 51,004 and S&P futures −0.1% at 7,605.75.

ZeroHedge — rice futures

Rice futures — the grain that feeds half the world — just posted their biggest monthly surge since 2008 on El Niño threat

ZeroHedge surfaced rice futures — the staple feeding half the world — posting their biggest monthly surge since 2008 on the threat of a severe El Niño event compounding existing food-inflation worries from the Iran war. The piece feeds the wider commodity-inflation narrative on the same day Eurozone CPI hit 3.2% Y/Y. For desks running a stagflation overlay, the food-price leg is now joining the energy-price leg as a real risk to disinflation hopes, even with Brent down on Iran de-escalation headlines.

ZeroHedge — Norwegian offshore strike risk

Potential offshore strike in Norway could add fresh uncertainty to global energy markets

ZeroHedge flagged that a potential strike over wages could threaten smooth operations offshore Norway — Western Europe’s top oil and gas producer — just as the world scrambles for oil and gas supply amid the Middle East crisis. The Norwegian offshore tail risk layers on top of the still-low Hormuz flow picture: even with Trump’s “Iran deal within a week” framing knocking Brent −1.4%, a Norwegian outage would re-tighten the Atlantic basin and re-rate European TTF (already off the year-highs). The piece is the morning’s clearest contrarian flag on the energy de-escalation trade.

Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) — Trump on MOU

Trump to ABC: still have to get to “a few more points” on the MOU

DeItaone flagged a Trump remark to ABC News indicating an outstanding negotiation — described only as “a few more points” — on an unspecified MOU. The reference followed the weekend Iran-strike news cycle and the Newsquawk read of “constructive U.S.–Iran comments” supporting equities. The market read overnight was that a written framework on the table remained unfinished — capping the bid in oil and lifting risk modestly into the JOLTS print.

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) BREAKING

Iran Speaker Ghalibaf releases his first on-the-record statement since the strike halt

Kobeissi flagged the first on-the-record statement by Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf since Iran reportedly halted activity post-strike. The post (180K views) lit up the Tehran/Hormuz channel into Asia hours and was the proximate driver of the constructive Iran-tape headline Newsquawk used to explain the equity bid into the New York handover. Layered with the IRGC strikes on Kuwait and the U.S.-pressuring-Oman tape, the Ghalibaf signal sits at the center of the day’s binary on whether Trump’s “deal next week” framing lands or fractures.

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) — AI / credit signal

NVDA 5-year CDS at ~38 bps — market prices Nvidia credit as creditworthy as the U.S. Treasury

Kobeissi highlighted that the five-year credit default swap on Nvidia trades around 38 basis points, slightly below the U.S. sovereign CDS line. The framing is that the market now perceives Nvidia balance-sheet credit risk as essentially government-grade — a structural marker for the AI cycle and a headline that has been used by sell-side to justify continued mega-cap concentration into June.

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) — China export prices

China’s export prices suggest global inflation pressures are building

Kobeissi posted that China’s overall export price index has turned, framing the move as a leading indicator for a fresh leg in global goods inflation. The post landed alongside the broader debate over whether the recent Hormuz-driven energy spike feeds CPI in summer prints. Implication: bond bears get fresh ammunition into U.S. JOLTS Tuesday and ISM Services Thursday, layered with Eurozone Core CPI’s hawkish surprise.

John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) — U.S. pressuring Oman

Kemp via WSJ: U.S. pressures neutral Oman to pick a side and cut diplomatic ties with Iran

Kemp surfaced a WSJ report that Washington is leaning hard on Oman — historically a Gulf neutral and the back-channel host for Iran negotiations — to cut diplomatic ties with Tehran. The development sits squarely on the Hormuz / Strait-of-Hormuz risk line and is a delta versus yesterday: the diplomatic channel that has handled prior de-escalations is being narrowed. Oil bears watching the tape need to mark this as an unpriced escalation lever even as Trump’s “deal next week” framing knocks Brent −1.2%.

John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) — positioning

Hedge funds sold Brent again last week; oil bears expect Hormuz tanker traffic to resume soon

Kemp’s newsletter extract flagged that hedge funds sold Brent crude again last week, with positioning consistent with traders pricing in a near-term resumption of Hormuz tanker traffic. The contrast with the U.S.-pressuring-Oman headline a few hours later is exactly the bear/bull split the energy desk needs to navigate today: the speculative community is offside if escalation widens.

Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) — flows

U.S. large-cap ETFs took in the largest weekly inflows again — week ended May 29

Schwab’s chief investment strategist posted that U.S. large-cap ETFs took in the largest weekly inflows of any equity bucket for the week ended May 29 — extending dominance over mid, small, and international. The flow note corroborates the Bilello ATH streak and is the proof that retail/passive are still feeding the mega-cap concentration that defines the 2026 tape.

Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) — Kyiv

Kyiv air raid sirens, local authorities ask people to take shelter

DeItaone wire-style desk leak relayed Ukrainian civil-defense alert as Kyiv took shelter under air-raid sirens roughly twelve hours before the New York open. The post fed into an already-elevated geopolitical tape running parallel to the Iran/Hormuz situation — Eastern Europe risk-on, risk-off rotations remain a side driver to the energy and defense complex.

ISM Manufacturing PMI — May 2026 HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2022

May ISM Manufacturing jumps to 54.0 (highest since May 2022); Prices Index cools 2.5 pts to 82.1 from April’s 84.6; Iran cited in 42% of comments

The May ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 54.0 percent, up 1.3 points from April’s 52.7 and the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9). The headline has now expanded for the fifth straight month, with overall economic expansion running 19 months. The critical Prices Index ticked down 2.5 points to 82.1 from April’s 84.6 — still extreme, but the deceleration is the marginal headline relief. ISM’s Susan Spence flagged that “the Iran war was mentioned in 42 percent” of panelist comments and “57 percent of the panelists mentioned pricing volatility.” New Orders rose to 56.8 (+2.7), New Export Orders returned to expansion at 50.6, Employment improved but stayed in contraction at 48.6 (+2.2). The print contradicts the soft-landing softening narrative: per Spence, 54.0 corresponds to “a 2.2-percent increase in real GDP on an annualized basis.” This is hawkish on growth and slightly less hawkish on prices than the worst-case feared.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow 80bp ONE-DAY CUT

GDPNow Q2 nowcast cut to 3.0% on June 1 from 3.8% on May 28 — an 80bp one-day revision after the ISM print

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model dropped its Q2 2026 real GDP nowcast to 3.0 percent on June 1, down 0.8 percentage points from the 3.8 percent reading on May 28. The downgrade absorbs yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing data plus construction spending — the contribution mix has shifted as the manufacturing component re-weighted. Even at 3.0 percent, the nowcast remains well above the FOMC’s longer-run estimate of trend (roughly 1.8 percent), preserving the stagflation-lite framing: growth still firm, prices still hot. The next scheduled GDPNow update is June 9, the day before May CPI — meaning JOLTS today, Productivity revisions Thursday, and NFP Friday will all feed into the model before the next print. The 80bp one-day move is itself a delta worth flagging.

BLS JOLTS — Release Today 10:00 ET

April JOLTS releases today at 10:00 AM ET; March print was 6.866 million job openings; first labor checkpoint of a four-data week

The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April is scheduled for release Tuesday, June 2 at 10:00 AM ET — the first major labor-market checkpoint of the data-heavy week. The most recent prior reading (March) showed openings at 6,866,000 (preliminary), hires rate 3.5%, separations rate 3.4%. April JOLTS lands ahead of Wednesday’s ADP, Thursday’s Productivity revisions, and Friday’s NFP. Given Waller’s labor reference (3-month average payrolls +48k) and the Fed’s “downside skew to the labor market” framing from Jefferson and Bowman, a soft JOLTS print could reopen the rate-cut conversation Waller closed; a strong print reinforces the hold-or-hike repricing already underway.

NY Fed Liberty Street Economics — Remote Work & Youth Unemployment JUNE 1

Liberty Street: remote work explains 64% of the rise in young college-grad unemployment between 2017–19 and 2022–25 — not generative AI

NY Fed research economist Natalia Emanuel with Harvard’s Amanda Pallais and UVA’s Emma Harrington published a Liberty Street piece June 1 directly refuting the popular framing that AI is what’s hurting young workers. Their estimate: remote work explains 64 percent of the recent increase in unemployment among young college graduates between 2017–19 and 2022–24, while AI’s labor-market effects appear minimal in this cohort. Unemployment among under-29 grads rose from 3.1 percent in 2017–19 to 3.7 percent in 2022–25 (a 20 percent jump), while experienced workers (29+) ticked down from 1.9 to 1.8 percent. The mechanism: distributed teams reduce on-the-job mentorship, so firms shift away from hiring inexperienced workers when offices stay remote. The policy and trade implication: the youth-employment problem is structurally tied to firm RTO patterns, not the AI capex stack — complicating “AI is destroying jobs” narratives ahead of Friday’s NFP.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence (May)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence edged down 0.7 to 93.1 in May; two-thirds of consumers cite cutting back on spending

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 in May (from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April). The Present Situation Index retreated 3.2 points to 121.2, but the Expectations Index actually rose 1.0 point to 74.4 — a bifurcated reading where consumers feel worse now but slightly better about the future. Chief Economist Dana Peterson directly blamed “the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensifying.” A special question found that two-thirds of consumers said they had cut back on spending overall due to rising prices, with most buying fewer items and delaying expensive purchases. This is exactly the lower-end consumer pullback Liberty Street’s K-shaped pieces have been documenting — now showing in the national survey.

NY Fed Liberty Street — K-shaped gas spending

Liberty Street: K-shaped gas-spending gap is MORE pronounced in the Second District (NY/NJ) than nationally

NY Fed researchers Chakrabarti, Pham, Pierce, and Pinkovskiy use inaugural regional consumer-spending indicators to show that the national K-shaped retail-and-gas pattern is even sharper in the Second District. Lower-income households cannot reduce spending on the unavoidable input (fuel) and so reduce discretionary spending elsewhere, while higher-income spend continues. The Iran energy shock has hit asymmetrically and the regional data validate that the bifurcation framing in Fed-staff thinking (Bowman, Waller, Jefferson all cite it) is empirically grounded. The implication for traders: aggregate demand may hold up in headline data while cyclical discretionary stocks face a tougher tape than GDPNow implies.

BLS June 2026 Release Calendar

Heavy first week: JOLTS Jun 2 10am, Productivity revision Jun 4 8:30am, NFP Jun 5 8:30am, CPI Jun 10, PPI Jun 11

The BLS June 2026 calendar shows the most data-heavy first week of any month this year. JOLTS for April releases today (Tue Jun 2, 10:00 AM ET). Productivity & Costs (revised) for Q1 hits Thursday June 4 at 8:30 AM. The May Employment Situation report — the marquee print — fires Friday June 5 at 8:30 AM. CPI for May follows Tuesday June 10, PPI for May June 11. Given the energy-driven inflation concerns highlighted by Waller, Bowman and Jefferson, every print this week feeds directly into the next Atlanta Fed GDPNow update on June 9 and into the FOMC blackout that begins approximately June 7.

Governor Christopher Waller — Frankfurt School

Waller (5/22): pause cuts, remove easing-bias language; rate hike not ruled out if Iran-driven inflation persists — the cornerstone hawkish guide

Governor Waller’s May 22 Frankfurt speech remains the cornerstone hawkish Fed statement of the cycle and is the framework Yardeni’s July-hike call is reflecting. Waller supported the April pause because of the Middle East conflict’s energy shock, said he “would support removing the easing bias language” from the FOMC statement, and explicitly noted he “can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon.” His framework: classical probability says ignore transitory shocks, but Bayesian updating in household and firm expectations means three consecutive positive shocks (COVID -> Ukraine -> Iran) may infer correlated future shocks — how 5y inflation expectations come unanchored. With FOMC blackout starting around June 7, this speech remains the highest-conviction guidance available.

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman — Reykjavík

Bowman: hold rates; look through the transitory energy shock for now, but the patience has a clock

VC Bowman’s May 29 framework speech is the most recent FOMC voice on policy and is consistent with Waller and Jefferson: “Progress on lowering inflation appears to have stalled” with headline PCE 3.8% YoY April and core PCE 3.3% YoY. She supports the current “moderately restrictive policy stance” to allow inflation to resume its downward trend “once the effects of tariffs and oil prices dissipate.” Critically: “the more persistent higher oil prices are — or if we start to see broader effects of higher energy prices on PCE inflation — the more likely I will consider shifting my approach.”

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson — BOJ Tokyo

Jefferson: labor-market risks “skewed to the downside,” inflation risks “tilted to the upside”

Vice Chair Jefferson framed the global landscape from Tokyo May 27 around the Middle East energy shock, AI’s productivity potential, and disrupted trade flows. On the U.S.: growth “solid” but expected to slow this year as households face high energy costs. Labor market “broadly stable” but risks “somewhat skewed to the downside.” Disinflation stalled because of tariffs then moved notably higher because of energy costs. He expects inflation to decline later this year as effects wane, but views risks as “tilted to the upside.” The FOMC kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% at the late-April meeting and he “has not prejudged” the next meeting.

Governor Jerome Powell — JFK Profile in Courage Award

Powell (now Governor; Warsh chairing) defends Fed independence at JFK Library

In Saturday-night acceptance remarks at the JFK Library, Governor Powell — now Governor, not Chair, with Warsh listed as “Chairman Warsh” on the Fed’s own speeches filter — delivered a highly political defense of central-bank independence. He stated that if any administration finds a way to remove Fed officials over policy differences, then future administrations will do so as well, and the public would lose faith. He framed Fed governors’ legal protection against removal as a key insulation that “has served the public well.” The speech signals that political pressure around the Warsh-led Fed remains acute and that institutional-credibility risk has not been priced out.

FEDS Notes — Barbarino, Diercks, Miran (5/22) DOVISH OFF-RAMP

FEDS Notes: “Computer Software and Accessories” PCE category made an “unprecedented” contribution to core inflation Nov 2025–Mar 2026

A FEDS Notes by Alessandro Barbarino, Anthony Diercks, and Stephen Miran identifies that from November 2025 to March 2026, the “Computer Software and Accessories” category of the PCE price index “made an unprecedented contribution to the rise in core and core goods inflation.” The note distinguishes the historical average since 2000 for core/core-goods inflation when excluding software, illustrating that this single category has been doing real work in lifting recent core readings. The implication: a meaningful chunk of post-October 2025 core-inflation acceleration is software-category specific — if methodological / measurement rather than broad price pressure, the Fed has room to look through it. The dovish counterpoint to Waller’s stagflation framing.

FEDS Notes — de Soyres et al. (5/20)

FEDS Notes: near-zero labor-force growth implies breakeven employment near-zero — “negative job growth almost as likely as positive”

A FEDS Notes by François de Soyres and co-authors documents the implications of U.S. labor-force growth slowing to near-zero, driven by weak population growth from low net immigration and declining labor-force participation from aging. Two significant implications: (1) breakeven employment growth (the pace needed to maintain a steady unemployment rate) would also be near-zero — making “negative job growth almost as likely as positive” in any given month; (2) any growth in potential GDP will need to come from productivity. This is the analytical foundation underneath Friday’s NFP: a sub-trend reading is not the recession signal it once was.

FEDS Notes — de Soyres et al. on China shock 2.0 (5/29)

FEDS Notes: China’s current export surge differs structurally from the early-2000s China shock — trade surplus $1.2T in 2025

A FEDS Notes by François de Soyres and co-authors examines how China’s current export surge differs from the early-2000s China shock, with implications for global trade, labor markets, and U.S.–China policy. China’s trade surplus surged to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025 (over 6% of GDP). The piece is the latest in a series the Fed’s international finance group has been publishing on industrial policy and trade. The China-shock 2.0 framing matters for two near-term reasons: (1) trade-disintegration risk premia in markets; (2) the Trump–Xi diplomacy that Yardeni flagged might extend the October-2025 détente at the upcoming summit.

SF Fed Economic Letter — productivity regime

SF Fed: 57% probability the U.S. is in a high-productivity regime; labor productivity 8pp above 2022 levels, but TFP flat since 2024

Hamza Abdelrahman and Andrew Foerster at the SF Fed examine whether the U.S. is entering a high-productivity-growth period analogous to the late-1990s surge. Labor productivity has gained substantially over the past three years, helping the economy expand steadily despite near-zero employment growth, and AI-related business investment has surged. However, two productivity measures don’t yet provide strong evidence of a regime shift — patterns “resemble the mixed signals during the early stages of the 1990s productivity surge before a sustained high-growth period materialized,” giving reason for “cautious optimism.” A regime-switching model using labor productivity assigns a 57% probability to the high-growth regime; TFP has been flat since 2024.