Futures
Pre‑Market Briefing

Two Bloomberg desk notes overnight via Yahoo: “Treasuries Drop as Jobs Data, Iran Tensions Fuel Rate Hike Bets” and “Bonds Drop as Israel-Iran Strikes Raise Inflation Fears.” AP frames the sequencing problem: Friday’s payroll print had already done the rate-hike repricing work; the weekend’s ceasefire-violation headlines from Iran’s parliamentary speaker (citing US “naval blockade” and “violation of agreements regarding Lebanon”) deliver the second shock. Hike pricing for 2026 — zero a month ago — is back on the curve: CME odds 50→57%, 10Y futures 4.55%.

Hassett told CNBC Friday: “there’s been plenty of room for a rate cut lately, and now we’ve got a new guy in town at the Fed who hopefully is going to be able to get things to be seen that way.” Charlie Bilello reposted Sunday. Positioning conflict: White House lobbying for cuts as Friday’s +172k jobs print resurrected the market’s hike pricing — a Warsh trial-balloon ahead of his June 17 debut FOMC.

DeltaOne flagged weekend prime-broker data: “HEDGE FUNDS LOADED UP BEFORE FRIDAY SELLOFF — Hedge funds bought global equities at the fastest pace.” Implies positioning was crowded long into Friday’s worst session since October. Goldman’s flow desk note (per ZeroHedge) calls the picture “dangerously synchronized.” Sets up an asymmetric delta-risk into Wednesday’s CPI.

Goldman’s 2026 year-end SPX target stays 8,000, citing AI-boom earnings growth — +8.4% implied from Friday’s cash close of 7,383.74. Citi now sits above it at 8,100 (CNBC Pro Friday). Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, with a longer-running “strong earnings shield S&P from Iran war” framing, recommends investors “stand ready to add risk even if the Iran conflict continues.” (Desk view as last published — Goldman May 15, 2026; Wilson April 13, 2026)

Ed Yardeni: “US data strength is pulling capital back home, but ex-US forward earnings are going vertical while valuations stay cheaper. The setup argues for Go Global even as rate hikes work against it.” The friction is the trade: Fed-hike repricing pulls dollars home into a tape that’s ALSO getting hit by Iran-Yemen escalation that punishes EM. Yardeni’s posting timed 11 hours before today’s strikes — the second blow on his “Go Global” thesis has now landed.

Bianco Research reposted Axios’ Barak Ravid: “The Israeli Air Force conducted strikes on military targets in central and Western Iran on Monday morning local time in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack against Israel, IDF said.” Follow-up: “An hour after the Israeli strikes in Iran a ballistic missile was launched from Yemen towards central Israel… It was the first attack from Yemen since the April 8 ceasefire.” Bianco’s amplification flags this as the most consequential geopolitical event of June so far.

Kobeissi flashed: “BREAKING: The Israeli Air Force says it conducted strikes in western and central Iran” — 346K views in 9 hours. The running framing has emphasized that 10Y yield (up ~45 bp since war began Feb) is now the binding constraint on Trump’s Iran posture, not oil. Today’s setup — yields rising, oil rising, tech selling — aligns with that thesis.

Alden quote-reposted Bearly AI: “Stack Overflow has seen the number of monthly questions on its platform collapse from 300k to ~0 since launch of ChatGPT. Meanwhile, annual revenue is actually up 2x during that span to more than $115m. How? It has licensed its back-catalog of human answers to AI labs.” Alden’s amplification continues her long-running thread that AI-disruption to white-collar labor is one of the most under-priced macro themes — and a setup for the Fed to make policy errors on misread employment data.

Parets quote-reposted Barchart’s egg-prices flag: “Egg Prices have now collapsed 98% from their March 2025 all-time high and are now at their lowest price in over a decade.” Parets’ gloss: “Great to see how affordable it is for every person in this country to get some protein in their system. 3 cents per gram.” Important counterweight to the energy-driven rate-hike narrative: commodity disinflation in core staples is real even as oil reflates.

Worth on Fast Money June 3: “Cryptocurrencies having their worst first half of the year since 2022… if levels could go to 60K. $BTC $ETH.” Call landed: BTC printed a 52-week low of $60,074 on Friday June 5 and has held that level overnight. Spot now $63,563 (+1.54%); ETH ripped +6.87% to $1,688 after Fundstrat repost flagged “lowest daily RSI ever recorded.” Worth’s technical floor is the line in the sand.

Spot VIX 19.32; front futures M1 16.24 / M2 16.62 / M3 16.78. Spot above M1 = mild backwardation, the classic “event-driven” not “regime-change” pattern. Mild contango M1→M3 (+0.54 vol points) is within normal. Market signaling mean reversion within weeks — not a paid-up vol bid into FOMC.

ZeroHedge front-page Sunday night: “The Real Risk Here Is Not ‘AI Is Dead’: Goldman Flows Guru Warns Of ‘Dangerously Synchronized’ Crowded positioning.” Ties directly to the DeltaOne prime-broker flash that hedge funds were buying global equities at the fastest pace right before Friday’s collapse. The signal: positioning into CPI Wednesday is asymmetric to the downside.

Hartnett’s weekly note (per ZH): “Brace For June Event Risk, And CPI Print That Could Pop The Bubble.” Reinforces calendar-risk into Wednesday’s CPI; rate-path repricing post-payrolls already triggering the AI-name unwind that started Friday.

Schwab Center for Financial Research’s Cooper Howard on Friday’s +172k payroll print: “It’s likely the Fed remains on hold for the time being. I think it gives them more runway to wait to see what happens with inflation.” CME-implied hike odds 50→57%; 10Y to 4.54%; VIX 15.80. Schwab on rotation: “A few more sessions of weak chips and advancing healthcare and financial sector moves might add credence to the idea that a rotation is underway, but for now it’s too early to say.”

Kourkafas: “Before today’s drop, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the equal-weight S&P 500 reached fresh highs, reflecting this shift. We view this rotation as a healthy development that supports the durability of the current bull market. We expect this trend to continue in the near term, particularly if progress is made toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.” On the Fed: expects the Fed to remove its easing bias at the June 17 meeting while maintaining a patient stance as it assesses whether inflation peaks this quarter.

T. Rowe’s weekly: Nasdaq −4.68%; ISM Manufacturing PMI rose 1.3 to 54.0 (highest in four years); ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5 (services prices index “highest since August 2022”); JOLTS 7.618M (highest in nearly two years); initial claims rose 13k to 225k (highest since early February). Tim Murray’s monthly playbook flags continued market skepticism on the AI infrastructure boom — relevant given today’s Asia-tech rout. Peter Botoucharov: “How to position for a prolonged energy shock” — directly relevant with Brent +4.1% this morning. T. Rowe traders: “year-to-date supply in the market is at its fastest pace since 2020” in IG corporates.

Ferraioli (Schwab’s Director of Digital Currencies Research): “Bitcoin will likely find support around $60,000, a level which roughly coincides with the cost of production for efficient miners and the 200-week moving average.” The level held: Friday print $60,074 52-week low — spot now $63,563. Glassnode: investors sold a net $2.4 billion from bitcoin spot ETPs during May (largest monthly outflow since Nov 2025; third-largest since launch).

Schwab podcast (Sonders / Martin): “Excitement around anticipated initial public offerings is in the air, but headline market caps can be misleading, floats are small, and the impact on major indexes like the S&P 500 Index may be less than many assume.” Directly relevant given SpaceX’s $1.75T target and S&P DJI’s decision not to fast-track megacap IPOs into the index.

Stock futures whipsawed overnight as Israel and Iran traded missile strikes, putting the May 29 ceasefire framework under pressure. Then Trump posted on Truth Social that Israel and Iran “are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE” with “final negotiations” proceeding, which clipped oil’s gains and sent S&P futures from −0.4% Sunday night to Nasdaq +1% by EU open. Brent Aug futures +3.18% to $96.05 intraday; WTI Aug +3.46% to $93.67.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Flex (FLEX) will join the S&P 500 effective June 22 in the latest quarterly rebalance. MRVL jumped almost 9% in Friday premarket on the news; passive demand from index funds will drive sustained flow into both names through the effective date. S&P DJI separately declined to fast-track megacap IPOs (SpaceX) — index AI exposure is moving via the standard rebalance lane, not via fast-track inclusions.

Citi raised its 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,100 — an explicit re-rate above Goldman’s standing 8,000 — on what the strategy team labels “AI-driven earnings strength.” The call lands as a counterweight to the immediate sell-side mood after Friday’s tech rout. CNBC Pro also flagged BofA lifting Sandisk PT to $2,100 (SNDK was Friday’s worst −11.4%) and BofA upgrading UnitedHealth to Buy.

Intesa Sanpaolo tabled an unsolicited €30.6 billion ($35.3 billion) offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena — a 12.5% premium to Friday’s close. The move counters Banco BPM’s Sunday-night “merger of equals” proposal. The deal would create Europe’s second-largest bank by market cap. Stoxx 600 opened −0.5%; tech −2%; oil & gas +0.6%. Tate & Lyle agreed to be acquired by Ingredion for £2.7 bn (+12%).

Apple’s WWDC begins today. Schwab’s morning update flagged growing expectation that Apple will unveil “a wide number of advances in its AI program, including a revamp of Siri.” AAPL enters the event near record highs; the catalyst risk is binary — a strong AI narrative re-rates Apple multiples, an underwhelming announcement compounds the Asia tech sell-off into a US megacap unwind. Apple is the linchpin of Nasdaq stability today.

Foreign investors dumped a net W1.24 trillion ($801M) of Kospi shares by 11 AM Singapore time. Goldman (June 5): “Foreign investors continued to sell the Kospi market, driven by outflows for Kospi Tech and Auto.” Nomura’s Chetan Seth: “This is essentially forced selling that we are seeing from our investors and clients” — driven by domestic-retail crowding out of the foreigner allocation, mirroring India’s 2024 dynamic. Implication: Asia tech selling pressure may abate once forced-selling clears.

FactSet pegged Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth at almost 29%; Q2 estimate 21.6% with double-digit growth seen for energy, tech, materials, and utilities. About 56% of S&P 500 stocks now trade above 50-DMA, low considering the index trades near record highs. Schwab’s Kasey McCurdy: leadership looks narrow but participation looks healthier — the bull-case counterweight to the Asia-led rout.

Calendar: June 9 May existing home sales; June 10 May CPI & core CPI + ORCL/CHWY earnings; June 11 ECB + May PPI + ADBE/LEN; June 12 U-Mich June prelim; June 17 FOMC (new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-meeting press briefing). Fed projects one cut this year; futures price in none. Schwab: “the change in personalities might initially cause volatility as investors try to read the room.”

DeltaOne flashed: “IRAN’S ARMED FORCES ANNOUNCE END OF MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST ISRAEL, WARN OF HARSHER ATTACKS IF ISRAEL CONTINUES STRIKES.” Posted ~8 min before capture — 25,942 views, 271 likes in 8 minutes signals high market attention. The de-escalation language is what Trump’s Truth Social “immediate ceasefire” line is pricing against; the “harsher attacks if” clause is what keeps the energy bid bid.

DeltaOne: “U.S. S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES ADD 0.65%, NASDAQ 100 FUTURES UP 1.21%, DOW FUTURES UP 0.2%.” Pre-market rebound led by chip names after Friday’s rout, posted ~4 minutes before capture at ~7:30 AM ET.

DeltaOne summarized weekend prime-broker data: “HEDGE FUNDS LOADED UP BEFORE FRIDAY SELLOFF — Hedge funds bought global equities at the fastest pace…” Positioning was crowded long into Friday’s worst session since October — structurally amplifies the delta-risk into Wednesday’s CPI.

DeltaOne flagged NVDA-Hyundai expanded partnership on physical AI and robotics after Seoul talks between Jensen Huang and Chung Euisun — aim is to shift robotics from research to factory deployment. NVDA marked −6.20% at $205.10 into the open after Friday’s rout.

Kobeissi flashed: “BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market has been halted after falling −8.4% at the open.” Triggered by the chip-stock rout cascading from Friday’s US sell-off plus Iran war escalation — 20-minute halt invoked. ZeroHedge corroborated — near-10% intraday, foreign-flow driven, chip-led liquidation.

Newsquawk EU Open via ZH at 8:25 AM: Israel conducted airstrikes in Beirut, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes against Israel. Iranian officials warned that if Israel expands its Lebanon operations, they will deliver “devastating blows.” Eurostoxx 50 −1.5%; Brent Aug +4.1%.

Kobeissi: “Container shipping rates are surging amid the Iran War. The spot rate for a 40-foot container…” Second-order supply-chain inflation pressure if Strait of Hormuz routes remain disrupted. Reinforces the Waller framing about energy-shock leakage into goods prices and services ex-energy.

Bilello reposted: “60% of the job gains in the US over the last 3 months came from just two sectors — 1) Health Care…” Reinforces the narrow-leadership concern in BLS payrolls and feeds the Fed rate-cut debate ahead of Wednesday’s CPI — the Hassett-led White House case for cuts.

Bilello: “The Dividend Yield on the S&P 500 ETF moved below 1% this week and is fast approaching the all-time [low].” Valuation stretch and historical mania-phase positioning — tied into Hartnett’s “CPI print that could pop the bubble” concern.

Sonders dropped four packets pre-open: MA breadth charts updated thru Friday close, performance index tables + Mag7 chart, sectors/indexes Friday and MTD/YTD, sectors’ percentage of stocks trading at 4-week and 52-week highs. Her weekly market-internals routine is on schedule — useful baseline for reading today’s post-NFP unwind through the standard sector frame.

Timiraos cited his WSJ feature: “Warsh’s predicament — The White House says he can still deliver cuts. Wall Street and some of his colleagues…” Frames the political vs market expectations gap for the prospective Fed chair against today’s higher-rate trajectory implied by Friday’s payrolls beat. 95K views.

Kobeissi: “S&P 500 futures erase all losses and turn green after President Trump says Israel has ‘no’ plan to escalate further.” Captured the Sunday-evening reversal — 1.3M views, 11K likes. By overnight, the IAF strikes on western/central Iran had reversed the “no escalation” framing.

Kemp: “Oil bears bet Hormuz crisis is mostly over. Investors have cut their position in Brent again…” Posted before today’s headlines reversed the thesis as Iran-Israel strikes resumed. Positioning context: spec longs were trimmed into the renewed escalation — structural setup for a squeeze if Brent breaks $95.

“Airline profits set to halve this year as fuel costs jump by $100 billion: IATA.” Material macro read-through to transport, energy, and CPI services components as the oil rally extends. The first leg of the Waller-flagged “energy passthrough to services ex-energy” concern in concrete sector form.

AP wire: “Oil prices surge as Iran conflict flares, while global stocks skid on selling of tech shares.” Global shares declined after Wall Street’s “worst day since October” on Friday; oil jumped more than $4 on the Iran-Israel re-escalation. Sequencing problem for buyers: jobs print did the rate work, weekend headlines did the geopolitical work.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased 172,000 in May, similar to the 179,000 gain in April. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% and has remained in a narrow 4.3-4.5% range since July 2025. Job gains in leisure and hospitality (+70k), local government (+55k), health care (+35k). Financial activities employment declined 22,000 and is down 107,000 since its May 2025 peak. AHE +12¢ / +0.3% to $37.53, 12-month +3.4%. March revised up 29k to +214k; April revised up 64k to +179k. Combined two-month upward revision: +93k.

GDPNow model estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP growth: 3.0% (June 1 update). Initial nowcast issued April 30. Next update June 9 incorporates the International Trade (Full Report), Wholesale Trade, and Existing Home Sales releases. June 1 update reflected the Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing Index prints.

Median inflation expectations increased 0.2 ppt to 3.6% at the one-year-ahead horizon; 3-year unchanged at 3.1%; 5-year unchanged at 3.0%. Median year-ahead gas-price expectations dropped 4.3 ppts to 5.1% from a March spike. The mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now rose 0.4 ppt to 43.9% — highest reading since April 2025. The data that lets Waller keep his “remove easing bias” stance without flagging an outright unanchoring.

The communications blackout began June 7 ahead of the June 17 FOMC meeting — new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-meeting press briefing. The Fed’s March dot plot showed one cut this year; futures price in zero. The June meeting updates the SEP. Schwab: “the change in personalities might initially cause volatility as investors try to read the room.”

Chair Powell accepted the 2026 JFK Profile in Courage Award at the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation in Boston, May 31 — his last scheduled public appearance before the June 7 communications blackout. Award honors elected officials who chose principle over political expediency; Powell’s selection reflects defense of Fed independence amid ongoing political pressure. Remarks not focused on monetary policy.

Waller said the Middle East conflict has become one of the biggest questions for the U.S. economy and the path of monetary policy — higher energy prices pushing up headline inflation and prices for other goods. Supported a pause in rate cuts at the FOMC’s April meeting and would support removing the “easing bias” language to make clear that a rate cut is no more likely than a rate increase. Estimated PCE inflation rose ~3.8% over the previous 12 months — highest in three years; core PCE ~3.3% YoY — most in 2.5 years. April CPI +0.6% with 3.8% energy jump. The framework that drives today’s rate-hike pricing reaction to the May jobs print + Iran strikes.

Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman delivered a framework speech for monetary policy decision-making at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026 — on the eve of the FOMC communications blackout. Bowman has previously dissented in favor of slower rate cuts; this was one of the last four pre-blackout Board speeches. No specific rate guidance for the June meeting.

IT-equipment-and-software investment as a share of GDP has jumped sharply from 3.9% in Q3 2023 to 4.7% in Q4 2024 — surpassing the Q4 2000 dot-com peak for the first time. Corporate cash holdings drifted from a 6%+ COVID peak to ~5.5% recently. As AI-related investment expands, cash holdings won’t be sufficient to fund it and firms become more dependent on external financing. McKinsey projects $6.7T worldwide AI capex by 2030. Credit conditions matter more than they did three months ago.