Yardeni Research / Ed Yardeni FRESH MAY 7

QuickTake: “Earnings-Led Meltup” — LTEG 20.2% above 2000 bubble peak; PEG 1.03

Yardeni’s May 7 Morning Brief frames the tape as an “Earnings-Led Meltup”: forward LTEG (long-term earnings growth) is 20.2%, above even the 2000 bubble peak. PEG ratio sits at 1.03 — not historically cheap, but the earnings denominator is doing genuine work. Critically, Yardeni still flags Iran supply shocks rippling through 2026 even with a Hormuz deal (consistent with Kemp’s distillate-stocks-lowest-in-two-decades thesis). The firm holds 7,700 SPX year-end and is now joined by Tom Lee at 7,700 (“very probable”) and MS Wilson at 7,800 in the bullish quartile, against the freshly-walked-back JPM target of 7,600 (raised from the prior 7,200 step).

JPMorgan / Dubravko Lakos‑Bujas CORRECTION FROM PRIOR

SPX year-end RAISED back to 7,600 (from 7,200 step); “multidimensional polarization” thesis intact

JPM Global Research raised its SPX year-end target back to 7,600 on April 21 — reversing the earlier step-down to 7,200 that had been treated as the desk’s most cautious posture. Lakos-Bujas’s “multidimensional polarization” thesis sustains a long-quality / AI-execution barbell against an explicit short of unprofitable-tech and high-multiple hyper-growth. The desk continues to model 13-15% earnings growth for two years, with continued record concentration and a winner-takes-all dynamic. With Yardeni’s 7,700, MS Wilson’s 7,800, Citi/Chronert 7,700, and Goldman/Kostin 7,600, the central tendency of sell-side targets has crystallized in a 7,500-7,800 cluster — with BofA/Subramanian 7,100 and Stifel 6,500-7,500 holding the bearish quartile.

BofA / Savita Subramanian STREET MOST BEARISH

SPX year-end target 7,100 — multiple-compression call into rising real rates

BofA equity strategist Savita Subramanian holds the Street’s most bearish year-end SPX target at 7,100. Her thesis frames the gap between equity multiples and the real rate environment as unsustainable, with 96th-percentile valuations meeting an FOMC that retains four hawkish dissenters. Subramanian’s framework has been increasingly cited by allocators looking for the cleanest expression of multiple-compression risk into the Powell-to-Warsh transition. With Hartnett at the same firm calling for tactical zero-coupon long EXIT BY MAY 15, BofA’s composite institutional voice is now structurally bearish into the May 15 chair-handoff.

BofA / Michael Hartnett

Tactical zero-coupon long — EXIT BY MAY 15 (Powell-to-Warsh transition)

Hartnett’s Flow Show update keeps the 5% 30Y UST as the structural Maginot Line for the boom-loop / doom-loop binary, but the highest-conviction tactical instruction in his note is explicit: EXIT the tactical zero-coupon long by MAY 15. The reason is the Powell-to-Warsh transition; Hartnett sees the regime-shift risk as too concentrated in that one date to hold long-duration through it. He continues to recommend long “the Cs” (commodities, chips, consumers, China) and underweight unprofitable growth. The Money Flow Breadth Ratio at 50% and rising puts BofA’s Bull-Bear apparatus into the “Flow Surge” override zone — risk-on signal, but with mean-reversion risk on a fade.

Stifel / Barry Bannister

SPX 6,500-7,500 corridor — “in a bear trap” since April

Stifel chief equity strategist Barry Bannister holds an SPX year-end corridor of 6,500-7,500 and explicitly characterizes the post-March recovery as “a bear trap” rather than a sustainable bull leg. His framework leans on rising real rates, narrow breadth, and hawkish-dissent-FOMC dynamics; the corridor implies bigger downside than upside from current 7,365. Bannister stands alongside Subramanian as the institutional bearish voice that Hartnett’s tactical zero-coupon-EXIT-by-May-15 instruction validates — if the bears are right about the Warsh-transition tail, the May 15 line is where it cracks first.

Goldman Sachs / David Kostin

SPX 7,600 held; AI Execution Phase, 96th-percentile valuations, $670B 2026 hyperscaler capex

Goldman’s Kostin holds his SPX year-end target at 7,600, framing 2026 as the “AI Execution Phase” in which capex finally meets earnings delivery. The team continues to flag valuations at the 96th historical percentile as the structural cap on multiple expansion, with $670B in 2026 hyperscaler capex doing the earnings work. Their April note raising Brent Q4 to $90 and WTI Q4 to $83 is increasingly looking conservative as Brent leaks below $94 on the Saudi-flagged Hormuz breakthrough. Goldman is advising clients to harvest Hormuz-premium gains in energy while rotating into AI-monetization beneficiaries with the cleanest free-cash-flow profile.

Morgan Stanley / Mike Wilson

SPX 7,800 base — bond-vol the biggest equity risk, not Iran

Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson keeps his 7,800 SPX target and tells clients the biggest risk to equities is bond volatility, not the Iran conflict. With the 30Y above 5%, the four-dissent FOMC, and now Bianco flagging the UK 30Y at 5.76% (highest since 1998) as confirmation that the long-end stress is global, Wilson argues a sustained MOVE-index spike would force systematic deleveraging in equities even as fundamentals hold. He continues to favor cyclicals over defensives and sees the AMD/AAPL/Disney print sequence as supportive of his quality-cyclical thesis, but cautions any 10Y break above 4.50% would be a clear de-risking signal.

Deutsche Bank / Lisa Abramowicz relay EARNINGS BULL

DB Research: “one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years” — all 11 sectors growing YoY

Lisa Abramowicz amplified Deutsche Bank research framing the current Q1 reporting season as “one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years,” with all 11 GICS top-level sectors expected to show YoY earnings growth for the first time in four years. The breadth, not just magnitude, of beats is what is now driving multiples and the Bilello “SPX +10% in one month” historical context. Combined with Q1 ULC at +2.3% (margin pressure moderating), the institutional read is that earnings are doing the work that multiple expansion cannot. This is the cleanest pillar Powell’s successor inherits.

Citi / Scott Chronert

SPX 7,700 base — AI Adopters rotation thesis

Citi’s Chronert holds his 7,700 SPX year-end target framed around an “AI Adopters” rotation: as the AI-infrastructure leadership extends, the next leg comes from the names actually deploying AI to drive margins. Citi flags the breadth narrowing as a manageable risk if Financials and Industrials take the baton on a sustainable basis, citing the post-Disney consumer-services bid as an early validation. The desk continues to recommend a barbell of AI-execution leaders plus high-quality cyclicals, with explicit underweights in unprofitable growth.

Goldman Sachs / Jan Hatzius FRESH

First Fed cut PUSHED to September from June — data has firmed

Goldman’s Hatzius pushed his first-cut call to September from June, citing firmer ADP, the 200K claims print, ULC dynamics, and the four-dissent FOMC making a near-term move politically as well as economically harder. The shift is meaningful because Hatzius’s economist forecasts have been more dovish than the market implied path; this brings him in line with the centrist-Williams quartile. Pair with the Q1 productivity +0.8% / ULC +2.3% disinflation print and the Saudi-flagged Hormuz breakthrough, and the implied policy path is “hold longer, then cut into clean disinflation” rather than “cut soon to support growth.”

Tom Lee / Fundstrat (CNBC May 6) FRESH

“Stocks rising for the right reasons” — AI / compute / energy scarcity

Tom Lee told CNBC last night that stocks are “rising for the right reasons” — specifically scarcity in compute capacity, energy generation, and AI execution capability. He continues to frame software as his top pick (investors backed away on AI-disruption fears, creating dispersion he sees as transitory), and his year-end SPX target of 7,700 is now “very probable” given the velocity of the post-March recovery and the breadth of the AMD-led tech bid. Lee warns the year still includes possible 15-20% drawdown windows but his core thesis — the wall of cash waiting to buy any dip remains structurally bullish into year-end — is intact.

Mohamed El‑Erian (Allianz) BBC Newsnight FRESH MAY 6

“Not like turning a light switch on and off” — Iran/Hormuz adjustment lags

El-Erian on BBC Newsnight Tuesday made the most-cited soundbite of the week: even with an Iran framework, the global oil/distillate complex is “not like turning a light switch on and off.” Refining capacity, tanker insurance markets, and seasonal-cover dynamics need weeks-to-months to normalize after the Hormuz pause — consistent with Kemp’s distillate-stocks-lowest-in-two-decades thesis. His standing call — that Warsh “will err on the side of lowering rates earlier” — remains operative and is supportive of long-duration positioning into May 15.

Torsten Sløk / Apollo Daily Spark FRESH MAY 7

K-shape recovery widening — low-income confidence falling, high-income rising

Apollo’s Sløk flagged in his May 7 Daily Spark that the K-shape recovery in consumer confidence is widening: top-third of households are in expansion territory, bottom third in recession territory. He sustains a 30% recession-odds estimate and warns the bifurcation is the defining macro feature into Q3. Sløk argues today’s claims beat (200K vs 205K cons) and the Q1 ULC disinflation actually masks divergent within-cohort dynamics — the upper-income-led consumption tape may be sustainable while the bottom-third remains under wage / energy / housing stress. His implication: the headline soft-landing print does not change the actual policy calculus for the dovish dissenters.

Joe Brusuelas / RSM US

2026 GDP CUT to 1.7% from 2.4% on Iran impact

RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas cut his 2026 US GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.4% citing the Iran-war energy-shock pass-through into PCE, capex deferrals, and supply-chain fragility. The cut puts him below the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 nowcast of +3.7% — suggesting the model and the human forecaster are pricing different transmission speeds. Brusuelas’s framework is consistent with Sløk’s 30% recession-odds K-shape view and with Zandi’s “Iran did more damage than tariffs” framework. The bears now have an explicit GDP downgrade alongside the institutional bearish quartile.

Mark Zandi / Moody’s Analytics (Fortune May 5)

Iran war did “more damage than tariffs” — supply-shock view

Moody’s Mark Zandi framed in Fortune that the Iran war has done “more damage than tariffs” to the US economic outlook — a statement that reframes the prevailing “tariffs are the dominant macro risk” consensus. He cites the persistence of distillate-crack inflation, the K-shape consumer pressure on lower-income households, and the duration of the resulting Fed-policy uncertainty. Zandi’s view sets a clear hawkish-asymmetry frame: even with crude leg-down to $94 and Hormuz reopening flagged, the embedded goods-and-services price level is still re-rating up.

Jim Bianco / Bianco Advisors FRESH MAY 5

UK 30Y 5.76% highest since 1998 — long-end stress is global

Bianco’s May 5 update flagged UK 30Y gilt yields at 5.76%, the highest since 1998 — the cleanest non-US confirmation that long-end stress is a global phenomenon, not a US-specific FOMC artifact. He sustains the call that 10Y yields above 4.25% are the right neutral level and that any approach to that handle is a buy zone. The committee remains focused on Hormuz transit data — a normalizing tanker count and lower crude print is their all-clear signal. Today’s Saudi-flagged breakthrough is exactly the trigger Bianco was tracking; combined with the Q1 ULC disinflation, the framework supports neutral-to-modest-OW duration into the Warsh transition.

Diane Swonk / KPMG (May 5)

Iran shock “echoes the pandemic” — supply more than oil

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk framed the Iran shock as “echoing the pandemic” — it is more than an oil shock. Swonk emphasizes the supply-chain fragility, refining-capacity damage, and shipping-insurance dynamics that take weeks-to-months to normalize. Her framework is supportive of the El-Erian “not like turning a light switch” observation and pairs cleanly with Kemp’s distillate-stocks-low thesis. The implication: the Hormuz reopening flagged today is necessary but not sufficient for the full energy/inflation pulse to fade.

Larry McDonald / Bear Traps (May 6)

Hard-asset scorecard — BHP +42%, Rio +35%, URNM +23%

McDonald’s May 6 hard-asset scorecard documents the 30/30/40 rotation pay-off: BHP +42%, Rio Tinto +35%, URNM (uranium miners) +23% YTD. He continues to argue 60/40 is structurally dead and the new mix is 30% commodities / 30% stocks / 40% bonds. With silver pierced $81 today, gold/silver ratio compressing, and copper at $6.18, his framework is precisely tracking the global record-high commodity cohort. His warning: passive flows that drove the multiple expansion can amplify any equity dislocation just as quickly — the consensus mistake is being too long index versus hard-asset rotation.

Jonathan Krinsky / BTIG FEATURED TECHNICAL ANALYST

“Party Like It’s 1999” — top-10 NDX +784% (vs 622% pre-3/24/00); SNDK already past QCOM peak

BTIG’s Krinsky pivoted notably this week to a “Party Like It’s 1999” framework: the top-10 NDX names are up 784% from their respective lows versus 622% for the equivalent cohort heading into the March 24, 2000 peak. SNDK alone has already exceeded QCOM’s 2,600% bubble peak. The framework is bullish-with-asymmetry: the move can extend further but the historical analog implies a violent mean-reversion when the top finally prints. Krinsky’s prior 200-DMA buyable shelf at ~6,582 stays the floor; with AAII bears just collapsing 6.7pts and CBOE P/C tightening to 0.51, his contrarian-bullish backstop is now confirmed but the leadership-stretched warning is louder.

Frank Cappelleri / CappThesis (CappNotes)

SOX 53% above 200-DMA — biggest extension since March 2000

Cappelleri’s May note quantifies what Krinsky’s “Party Like It’s 1999” framework looks like in semis: the SOX semi-conductor index is now 53% above its 200-day moving average — the largest extension since March 2000. He flags this even as his SPX bull-flag projection at 7,475 first / 7,680 to fully consume remains intact. Rotation is the operative theme: large-cap tech and semis have done the lifting, but breadth has narrowed, and continuation higher needs Financials (XLF reclaiming 53 in cup-and-handle setup) plus Industrials and Pharma to take the baton. His GoNoGo signal is in Go but the question “what more can be asked of the SPX after 10%+ April” is now louder.

Walter Deemer (DeemerAlerts)

Whaley Price Thrust triggers on 17-day — SPY 725.04 / QQQ 682.77 the gap levels

Walter Deemer flagged a Whaley Price Thrust signal on the 17-day measure — a rare technical breadth confirmation that historically aligns with continuation rather than exhaustion. The corresponding gap-fill / measurement levels he tracks are SPY 725.04 and QQQ 682.77. The thrust framework dovetails with Cappelleri’s SPX bull-flag at 7,475 and Krinsky’s 1999 analogue: technically the tape can extend, but historic breadth thrusts of this kind have produced a 6-12 month positive skew. The combination of breadth thrust + AAII bear-streak break + ULC disinflation is unusually friendly for the cohort that does NOT have stretched leadership.

Mark Newton, CMT / Fundstrat

“Air’s gotten a bit thin again” — put/call has plunged

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton frames Wednesday’s record close with explicit caution: “the air’s gotten a bit thin again” and put/call has plunged (CBOE equity P/C tightened from 0.57 to 0.51). His cycle composite turns less supportive starting next month, raising the odds of a false breakout post-close that could reverse by early next week. He pegs initial NVDA resistance near the February peaks at 197.63-198.50 — the area he expects to see a pullback that creates a good entry. Newton’s standing 7,300 SPX year-end target is now ~70 points below cash — he is in pullback-watch mode tactically.

JC Parets / AllStarCharts

“Early stages of a market cycle / money-making mode”

JC Parets’s chartbook stream sustains a strongly bullish posture: he frames the post-March recovery as the “early stages of a market cycle” and tells subscribers the regime is now firmly in “money-making mode.” He emphasizes broadening participation across US and international equities, commodities, and rates, with hard-asset breakouts (silver $81, copper $6.18, miners) doing the heavy lifting alongside continued AI/semi leadership. His framework sits squarely with Verrone’s “raise odds of melt-up” call and against Newton’s pullback-watch posture — the bullish technicians are dominant but flagging extension.

Chris Verrone / Strategas

“Raise odds of melt-up” — lean in but rotate to energy / materials / nat-resources

Strategas’ Verrone tells clients to “raise odds of some type of a melt-up” through the back half of 2026, citing velocity off the late-March lows and 1999 parallels (now confirmed by Krinsky’s top-10 +784% read). He pairs the bullish view with a defensive rotation tilt: lean into the melt-up but reroute chips into energy, materials, and natural resources where the macro tape is firming. On bond yields, Verrone pushes back on the “bond market is the canary” narrative — the absolute level of long-dated yields by itself is not yet concerning for the economy, even with UK 30Y at 5.76%.

Carter Worth / Worth Charting DIS SHORT WAS WRONG

Carter Worth’s standing bearish-on-leadership framework took an explicit loss this week: his short-Disney call ahead of FQ2 was wrong, with DIS rev $25.17B / EPS $1.57 / streaming OI +88% blowing past Street. His other operative calls — bearish PLTR with $100 +/- price objective and continued bearish read on healthcare — remain on the tape. The broader Worth framework (short-of-leadership / long-of-laggards) remains a contrarian counterweight to the Krinsky 1999 / Verrone melt-up calls, but the DIS miss highlights the cost of fading earnings beats in this regime.

Ryan Detrick / Carson Group

Templeton “mature on optimism” framing — high-beta breaking out vs low-vol

Detrick’s Carson note frames the current regime through John Templeton’s “mature on optimism” lens: bull markets mature on optimism, die on euphoria, and current readings (AAII bear streak just broken, F&G 69 Greed not Extreme, CBOE P/C 0.51) sit firmly in the optimism band. He flags high-beta names breaking out versus low-vol breaking down as a confirmation that the cycle remains pro-cyclical risk-on. His “5%+ Jan-Apr” rule (23 of last 25 years +8.8% rest of year) and Bilello’s “SPX +10% in April only 7th time since 1928” pair as the bullish historicals.

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey FRESH MAY 7 PRINT

Bear streak broken: bears collapse 6.7pts to 33.0%; bull-bear spread flips +5.3

AAII’s Thursday May 7 print delivered a regime-shift in retail sentiment. Bullish sentiment ticked up to 38.3% (+0.2pp), neutral surged to 28.7% (+6.5pp), and bearish sentiment COLLAPSED 6.7 percentage points to 33.0% — ending the 12-week streak above the 31% historical average. The bull-bear spread FLIPPED from −1.6% to +5.3%. AAII Asset Allocation showed stocks at 68.5%, bonds 15.6%, cash 15.9%. The reading is the cleanest contrarian-bullish backstop Krinsky and Newton were watching for — retail capitulating into the rally just as the institutional record (Subramanian 7,100, Stifel 6,500-7,500, Hartnett tactical-exit-May-15) is most defensive. Historically this configuration has produced strong 6-month forward returns; the warning is that the contrarian fuel is now being burned.

BofA Bull & Bear / Money Flow Breadth Ratio

MFBR 50% rising — Flow Surge override active, risk-on regime

BofA’s Bull-Bear apparatus has the Money Flow Breadth Ratio at 50% and rising, putting it in the 50-60% band that triggers an OVERRIDE / Flow Surge signal. With 84% of S&P 500 companies beating EPS, 81% beating revenue at the 140-name mark, plus the index at fresh records and DB Research calling this “one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years,” the indicator is consistent with continued upside. Standard mean-reversion risk applies if flow surge fades. Hartnett’s tactical-zero-coupon-exit-by-May-15 instruction is the dissonance: BofA’s flow apparatus says risk-on while BofA’s flow editor says exit by mid-month.

Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage (via Bloomberg)

Hedge funds OFFLOADING risk into the rally — gross activity falls first time in 13 weeks

Goldman’s prime brokerage desk reports hedge funds are using the post-March US-equity rally to reduce — not add to — risk: gross trading activity declined for the first time in 13 weeks, and the desk’s read is funds may have “little room to buy stocks” from here without trimming elsewhere. Net leverage at the GS PB book is still near 3-year highs but no longer expanding. Combined with the AAII bear-streak break, the cohort divergence is now clean: retail capitulating, hedge funds offloading, active managers (NAAIM ~94) and passive flow (BofA Flow Surge) doing the buying. Cappelleri’s “rotation needed” thesis fits cleanly here.

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio

P/C tightened from 0.57 to 0.51 on May 6 — call demand dominant

The CBOE equity put/call ratio tightened from 0.57 (May 5) to 0.51 on the May 6 record close. Below 1.0 still implies call demand dominating put demand; the move into the low-0.5 band is firmly “optimistic without yet euphoric” territory. Newton’s “air’s gotten thin” framing references this exact P/C tightening — the kind of contrarian-extreme reading that historically precedes short-term consolidation in stretched leadership. Pair with the AAII bear-streak break, the contrarian fuel is now being consumed rapidly rather than building.

PIMCO — Macro Signposts FRESH

CPI / PCE divergence frames Fed path — lock in attractive yields

PIMCO’s new Macro Signposts piece frames the CPI / PCE divergence as the key Fed-path signal: if the gap between sticky-services CPI and the headline PCE the Fed targets persists, the dovish dissenters (Goolsbee/Waller) gain primacy and the easing path resumes. The team keeps a modest duration overweight and argues high starting yields plus stretched equity valuations make fixed income unusually attractive heading into mid-2026. PIMCO expects most central banks to reach neutral by year-end 2026 and sees more aggressive cuts where Chinese export disinflation hits hardest, including the Bank of England. Actionable: extend duration carefully and diversify regionally.

Charles Schwab — Liz Ann Sonders FRESH MAY 7 BLOOMBERG

Challenger layoffs −20.9% YoY April; Redbook +7.8% cycle high; ground beef $6.70/lb

Sonders’s morning Bloomberg Surveillance hit emphasized fresh data: April Challenger layoffs −20.9% YoY (a sharp tightening signal), Redbook same-store retail sales +7.8% (cycle high), and ground beef at $6.70/lb (a stagflationary consumer-price tell). She continues to highlight that earnings season has been “quite strong” but emphasizes growth is heavily concentrated, with GOOGL/AMZN/META accounting for ~70% of dollar-based S&P 500 growth this quarter. Q1 real GDP was 2% annualized. Her takeaway: respect breadth-thin rallies, stress-test mega-cap exposure, and watch whether labor begins to roll over — today’s claims at 200K is below but still up sequentially from the 1969-low.

BlackRock Investment Institute (Milken Conference)

OW US/EM equities held; private-credit institutionalization (HPS / O’Connell)

BlackRock Investment Institute remains overweight U.S. and EM equities and underweight long government bonds, with this week’s Milken Conference panels emphasizing the institutionalization of private-credit (HPS’s O’Connell). The team has lengthened tactical horizon back out to six-to-twelve months. AI revenue growth is now visibly accelerating; prior market skepticism over monetization has dissipated. On rates, BII still prefers stocks to bonds because it sees inflation pressures keeping policy rates structurally higher. Quote: “Government bond yields are set to stay higher for longer.” The Milken framing on private credit dovetails with Gundlach’s recent Red Lobster mark warning — the asset class is institutionalizing, not yet stress-tested.

Northern Trust — Eric Freedman (CNBC Squawk Box) FRESH MAY 6

Client portfolios shifted “more risk-on” amid AI boom + post-earnings positioning

Northern Trust Wealth Management CIO Eric Freedman told Squawk Box that client portfolios have moved “more risk-on” amid the AI boom and post-earnings positioning. Freedman is one of the more conservative Wealth-CIO voices on the Squawk roster, so the directional tilt is institutionally meaningful. Pair with the Kobeissi FOMO chase framing and Balchunas IBIT/FBTC inflow data — institutional asset allocation is rotating, not just retail. With AAII retail bears just collapsing 6.7pts and Northern Trust risk-on, the cohort that has NOT been chasing this rally (broad institutional wealth) is finally entering.

DoubleLine — Jeffrey Gundlach (private credit warning)

Bond market starting to price longer-lasting inflation; Red Lobster mark warning

Gundlach’s recent CNBC and Milken commentary centers on two threads. First: the bond market is starting to price in inflation lasting longer; he favors the short end over the long end on better risk-reward. Second: he flagged a Red Lobster private-credit mark as a warning shot for the asset class — private credit is being widely held by lower-quality sponsors and the marks have not been stress-tested in a true credit cycle. He pointed to selective opportunities in high-yield corporates as income demand picks up. With UK 30Y at 5.76% and US 30Y above 5%, his short-end-preferred posture is being validated.

Vanguard — Salim Ramji

“Stay the course” letter — high-quality FI, US value, DM ex-US lead 5-10yr risk/return

Vanguard CEO Salim Ramji’s “stay the course” client letter reinforces the firm’s 2026 outlook: a 2.25% US growth forecast supported by AI capex and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, but a softer first half from lingering tariff effects. The team is constructive on US tech but warns the risk profile is rising fast, instead pointing to its strongest 5-to-10-year risk-adjusted return profiles in three areas: high-quality U.S. fixed income, U.S. value-oriented equities, and non-U.S. developed-market equities. The frame for asset allocators is to take chips off concentrated growth and rotate toward dollar income and global diversification — consistent with UBS’s freshly-cut 7,500 / 7,000 mid-year targets.

Initial Jobless Claims (printed Thu May 7 8:30 ET) FRESH PRINT

Claims 200K (vs 205K cons / 189K prior 1969-low); continuing 1.766M

First Squawk relayed the 8:30 ET claims print: initial 200K (vs 205K expected, 189K prior 1969-low), continuing 1.766M (vs 1.785M expected, 1.776M prior). Claims ticked up sequentially but came in under expectations on both lines. Combined with ADP +109K Wednesday, the labor data continues to refute the recession narrative driving Q4 dovish-pivot positioning — today’s soft-landing print is firmer than consensus. Bear-steepener pressure on the 10Y refunding aftermath stays alive.

Q1 Productivity / Unit Labor Costs (printed Thu May 7 8:30 ET) FRESH PRINT

Q1 ULC +2.3% (vs 2.5% cons / +4.6% prior revised); productivity +0.8%

The Q1 productivity / unit labor cost print dropped at 8:30 ET alongside claims: nonfarm productivity +0.8% (vs 0.6% expected, last revised to 1.6%) and unit labor costs +2.3% (vs 2.5% expected, last revised lower to 4.6% from a higher print). Productivity beat slightly while ULC undershot meaningfully — the textbook supply-side disinflation print that gives Goolsbee / Waller cover on the “look through supply shocks” framework. This is the kind of data Warsh will inherit and almost certainly cite at his swearing-in May 15. Pair with DB’s “best earnings season in 20 years” thesis: earnings beats are coming with margin expansion, not just topline growth.

ADP National Employment Report (printed Wed May 6 8:15 ET)

ADP April +109K beats consensus — tees up Friday’s BLS NFP

ADP’s April National Employment Report printed +109,000 private-sector jobs Wednesday, well above the 84,000 Dow Jones consensus and the 99,000 economist median, and a sharp step up from March’s 61,000. Education and health services led with +61K, followed by trade/transport/utilities (+25K) and construction (+10K). Pay growth held at 4.4% YoY for those staying in their roles and 6.6% for job changers. The above-trend print firms the soft-landing narrative heading into Friday’s BLS payrolls report (consensus ~62K vs March’s 178K).

Walt Disney — FQ2 2026 results (Wed May 6 BMO)

Disney beats top & bottom; streaming OI +88%, buyback raised to $8B

Disney’s fiscal Q2 cleared Wednesday with revenue of $25.17 billion (up 7% YoY) versus the $24.85B Street, and adjusted EPS of $1.57 versus $1.50 expected, on GAAP EPS of $1.27. Streaming operating income jumped 88% to $582 million, theme parks held in, and management raised the FY26 buyback target to “at least $8 billion” from $7 billion while reaffirming roughly 12% adjusted EPS growth for the year. The print was the cleanest large-cap consumer/comm-services beat of the week and lent fresh fuel to Wednesday’s record S&P/Nasdaq closes. Carter Worth’s short-DIS call into print was wrong.

Earnings Whispers / Wall Street Horizon — Thursday docket

MCD marquee BMO; Datadog, Unity, Vistra AMC — AI-power tell

Thursday’s earnings docket is again heavy. Before the open, McDonald’s is the marquee print — consensus EPS $2.75 on $6.49B revenue and same-store sales of +3.7%, with the stock pinned at a 52-week low into the release. Other notable BMO names: Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Cheniere Energy, Howmet Aerospace, argenx, Celsius, Tripadvisor, Planet Fitness, Shake Shack, Peloton, Viatris. After the close: Datadog, Unity, and Vistra — with Vistra a key tell on the AI-power trade after AMD’s halo. Energy and consumer-staples are the read-throughs to watch for sector rotation. Wall Street Horizon also flags May as Shareholder Meeting Month with AMD/INTC/XOM AGMs incoming.

Reuters Morning Bid (Mike Dolan May 7) FRESH

Oil volatility from Tehran + Japan 160 USD/JPY intervention chatter

Reuters’ Morning Bid frames Thursday around three live threads: a Saudi-flagged Hormuz shipping breakthrough “within hours” from DeItaone; a yen that touched 155-160 per dollar on intervention chatter (weakest since 1990); and a fresh AI leg in Asia where the KOSPI cleared 7,000 and the Nikkei printed +5.66% to record 62,883.92. MSCI’s all-country index hit a record Wednesday and U.S. futures are firm into the cash open. Dolan flags Friday’s April payrolls (consensus ~62K, down from March’s 178K) as the swing factor for the rest of the week.

Bloomberg Daybreak (May 7) FRESH

Trump/Iran/Hormuz + US-EU trade stumble; Hertz miss; AI-frenzy continues

Daybreak Asia/Europe framed Thursday around three angles: a record-setting Wednesday in the US that lifted MSCI ACWI to a new high, the Saudi-flagged Hormuz breakthrough hours away (DeItaone), and a US-EU trade stumble that has begun to weigh on European industrials. Hertz reported a miss overnight on rental rate softness. The combination of risk-on equity plus firm dollar plus bid hard-asset complex (silver $81, gold $4,597) remains the cross-asset puzzle — the Cook-indictment governance tail (Pulte/Timiraos) is the emerging risk markets are not yet pricing.

U.S. Treasury — Quarterly Refunding (10Y Wed May 6 result)

10Y note auction cleared Wednesday; final 30Y leg now Wed May 13

Treasury cleared the second leg of its quarterly refunding Wednesday afternoon with the $42 billion 10-year reopening; the final 30-year leg ($25 billion, maturing May 15, 2056) is delayed this cycle and prices Wednesday May 13 at 1:00 pm ET, not Thursday May 7. Treasury kept auction sizes unchanged. With Wednesday’s 10-year stop in hand, the bond market’s focus on Thursday is purely macro — claims, productivity, ULC (all PRINTED soft / dovish-disinflation), and Fed conference commentary — rather than supply absorption. Hartnett’s tactical-zero-coupon-EXIT-by-May-15 instruction is the load-bearing risk into the Warsh transition.

Yahoo Finance / NVDA-GOOG mega-cap rank shake

NVDA $4.77T closing on GOOG $4.71T — mega-cap pecking order in flux

NVDA’s post-AMD-halo bid pushed market cap to $4.77 trillion, with GOOG at $4.71T — the gap is inside the standard-deviation band that has historically preceded a mega-cap rank flip. The dynamic matters because index-rebalance flow (Russell, S&P, MSCI) reacts to relative cap; an NVDA-GOOG flip would force rotational buying in GOOG just as Sonders’s “GOOGL/AMZN/META = 70% of growth” concentration thesis re-asserts. Pair with the ZeroHedge “Semi-Irrational Chase” framing — the AI/semi cohort is now setting the relative-value structure of the index.

@DeItaone (Walter Bloomberg) FRESH 06:40 ET

Saudi state TV: STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING BREAKTHROUGH EXPECTED WITHIN HOURS

Walter Bloomberg’s wire-relay flagged Saudi state TV reporting at 06:40 ET that a Strait of Hormuz shipping breakthrough is “expected within hours,” with agreements being negotiated to ease the blockade and allow stranded vessels to resume transit. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of seaborne crude. Brent immediately broke below $94 / WTI sub-$87 in pre-market. If confirmed, this is the largest single-headline reversal of the war-premium trade since the Axios framework leaked Wednesday. The Saudi state-TV provenance specifically (rather than US-side reporting) gives the headline credibility because Riyadh is the Sunni-side mediator with the most operational signal on transit traffic.

@KobeissiLetter FRESH 06:55 ET

DOJ & CFTC probing 4 “suspiciously timed” oil trades around Trump-Iran announcements

Kobeissi flagged a breaking story at 06:55 ET: the US DOJ is investigating a series of “suspiciously timed” oil trades placed ahead of major announcements by President Trump and a top Iranian official about the Iran War. The DOJ and CFTC are jointly probing at least four trades where traders captured outsized PnL on directional crude calls/puts. This is the front-run-the-headline tail-risk every futures desk has speculated about, now with regulatory teeth. The wire is consequential beyond the four specific trades because it puts the entire crude options complex on notice for adverse-selection scrutiny — squeezing volume into more-traditional hedging flow and reducing the institutional appetite for binary-headline calls.

@NickTimiraos (WSJ Fed reporter) FRESH MAY 6 PM

Pulte: Lisa Cook indictment “sufficient” for “for cause” removal — T‑8 to Powell-Warsh

WSJ’s Nick Timiraos relayed comments from Trump housing director Bill Pulte stating he expects Fed Governor Lisa Cook to be indicted, and that even short of a Supreme Court ruling allowing her to remain, the indictment alone would be sufficient grounds for removal “for cause.” Timiraos added important context: last July Pulte similarly claimed Powell was “considering resigning.” The renewed pressure on Cook arrives at the worst possible moment for FOMC cohesion, T‑8 days before Powell-to-Warsh transition. Markets are not pricing this risk in OIS or terminal-rate spreads.

@JKempEnergy (John Kemp) FRESH 04:45 ET

US distillate stocks lowest seasonally in 2+ decades; depleted by 18M bbls since war

John Kemp’s morning analysis: US distillate stocks have fallen to the lowest level for the time of year in more than two decades as the Strait of Hormuz closure created a worldwide diesel shortage. Inventories have been depleted by more than 18 million barrels since the war began. This frames why a Hormuz reopening (Saudi state TV breakthrough above) would not immediately ease the distillate crack — refining throughput needs weeks to rebuild seasonal cover. Implication: refiner equities (PSX, MPC, VLO, DK) retain edge regardless of headline crude direction. Kemp’s thesis is the structural carry trade against an Iran-framework collapse.

@KobeissiLetter (Nikkei record) FRESH 23:00 ET

Nikkei +5.66% record close 62,883.92 — global tech-stock surge

Kobeissi relayed the overnight Tokyo session: Nikkei 225 closed +5.66% at 62,883.92, a fresh all-time high, on the back of a global tech-stock surge. The move adds to the institutional FOMO chase Kobeissi has been documenting and pulls Japanese mega-caps into the same record-high cohort as US indices. KOSPI cleared 7,000 with Samsung +12% into the trillion-dollar club. The global record-high cohort now spans US tech, Japan tech, BTC ($82K), gold ($4,597), silver ($81), and KOSPI 7,000+. Risk-on into NY open is a global, not US-only, condition.

@DeItaone (silver) FRESH 06:32 ET

Spot silver tops $81/oz first time since April 17 — +4.74% intraday

Spot silver pierced $81/oz for the first time in three weeks, up 4.74% on the session. The break aligns with the gold/silver ratio compression trade and CTA momentum positioning that built ahead of the supposed Iran de-escalation. With Hormuz reopening flagged simultaneously, the silver bid is showing inflation-hedge characteristics independent of energy — consistent with McDonald’s 30/30/40 scoreboard call (BHP +42%, Rio +35%, URNM +23%) and JC Parets’s “hard-asset breakouts” framework.

@APompliano (Anthony Pompliano) FRESH MAY 6 PM

“Everyone promising you the Iran war was going to destroy your portfolio” — was wrong

Pomp’s evening thread (16h ago) called out the consensus bear thesis: “Everyone promising you the Iran war was going to destroy your portfolio” was wrong — SPX hit a new all-time high. The framing is psychologically important: the war-premium short SPX trade is now widely discredited, which means positioning is one-sided long, which means a Hormuz-incident reversal would have outsized impact. Pomp’s ProCap +450 BTC institutional accumulation thesis remains the load-bearing piece of the BTC-as-macro-hedge framework — with BTC printing $82,420 today, the bid looks intact and continues to trade as a Warsh-transition hedge.

@LisaAbramowicz1 (DB earnings relay) FRESH MAY 6 PM

DB Research: “one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years” — all 11 sectors growing YoY

Lisa Abramowicz amplified Deutsche Bank research framing the current Q1 reporting season as “one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years,” with all 11 GICS top-level sectors expected to show YoY earnings growth for the first time in four years. The breadth, not just magnitude, of beats is what is now driving multiples and the Bilello “SPX +10% in one month” historical context. Earnings momentum is the cleanest pillar Powell’s successor inherits — pair with Q1 ULC +2.3% disinflation, the margin-expansion-meets-revenue-beat configuration is the strongest equity setup of the cycle.

@ericbalchunas (Bloomberg ETF) FRESH 06:25 ET

ARKK case study: stock-picking is half the battle, the other half is rebalancing

Eric Balchunas’s morning thread compares ARKK to Baron, showing ARKK held the most prolific compounders in 2016 (TSLA, BTC via GBTC at ~10,800K%, NVDA at ~10,300K%) but failed to maintain weights — BTC, META, and NFLX are now 0% in ARKK. The lesson: discipline beats discovery. Relevant today because the IBIT/FBTC institutional flow Balchunas tracks rests on whether discretionary managers will trim into strength as crypto and AI mega-caps make new highs — the Pomp BTC accumulation thesis is the buy-side; Balchunas’s ARKK case is the sell-side discipline lesson.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow FRESH

Q2 GDPNow tracking +3.7% as of May 5 — sharp acceleration from Q1

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows Q2 2026 real GDP growth tracking +3.7% as of the May 5 update, well above consensus and a sharp acceleration from Q1’s 2% annualized. The next update lands today (5/7) and will incorporate ISM Services, construction spending, and the jobless claims print. The combination of strong Q1 productivity and accelerating Q2 nowcast remains the key thumb-on-the-scale for the Hammack/Logan/Schmid hawkish-dissent argument — the data simply do not support a recessive-easing case in real time. Brusuelas/RSM’s 1.7% GDP forecast is now ~2 ppt below the model nowcast.

Q1 Productivity / Unit Labor Costs (BLS May 7 print)

ULC +2.3% (vs +4.6% prior) supply-side disinflation; productivity +0.8%

The Q1 unit labor costs print at +2.3% (vs Exp 2.5%, Last revised 4.6%) is the cleanest signal of supply-side disinflation in the morning data flow. Combined with productivity at +0.8%, real wage pressure on margins is moderating. This dovetails with the Deutsche Bank “best earnings season in 20 years” thesis (all 11 sectors growing YoY) — earnings beats are coming with margin expansion, not just topline growth. Bears now need a different argument; the “wage-pushed inflation” scare is structurally undermined by the data print.

NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (April release)

SCE 1yr inflation 3.4% (+0.4ppt); gas-price expectations 9.4% highest since Mar 2022

The latest NY Fed SCE shows median 1-year-ahead inflation expectations rose 0.4 ppt to 3.4%, with the headline gas-price-change expectation surging 5.3 ppts to +9.4%, the highest reading since March 2022. The 3-year horizon ticked up to 3.1%; the 5-year remained anchored at 3.0%. Households’ year-ahead financial-situation expectations also worsened. This is the data point Warsh will most likely cite to argue against the dovish-look-through narrative on energy — the inflation-expectations-becoming-unanchored risk that Williams has flagged as the bar for hawkish action. Pair with Q1 ULC disinflation, the inflation picture is bifurcated: realized cost is moderating, expectations are re-anchoring up.

Initial Jobless Claims (May 7 print)

200K (vs 205K cons / 189K prior 1969-low); continuing 1.766M

Claims printed 200K versus 205K consensus and 189K prior — an uptick from the 1969 low but still under expectations. Continuing claims at 1.766M (vs 1.785M consensus) confirm a labor market that is no longer tight but not yet cracking. With ADP +109K Wednesday already running hot, the labor data continues to refute the recession narrative driving Q4 dovish-pivot positioning. Friday’s NFP (consensus ~62K) is the bigger data point but today’s combined claims/ULC/productivity print is unambiguously dovish-disinflation.

Pending US Home Sales (Redfin via DeItaone) FRESH

+7.7% YoY April — highest level since 2022

DeItaone relayed Redfin data showing pending US home sales rose 7.7% year-over-year in April, the strongest reading since September 2022. Lower mortgage rates and improved inventory brought buyers back; housing payments fell as well. The print contradicts the soft-housing narrative that has been bleeding into Fed dovish-pivot talk and supports the “modestly restrictive” Williams thesis — the rate-sensitive consumer is responding to the modest re-easing of mortgage spreads. This is the kind of data Hammack/Logan/Schmid cite as evidence the Fed is not as tight as headline rates suggest.

European TTF gas positioning (Kemp May 6)

Investment managers buying TTF: 28 TWh net over two weeks ending May 1

John Kemp’s positioning data shows investment managers bought 28 terawatt hours of Dutch TTF (European gas) futures and options over the two weeks ending May 1, partly reversing 63 TWh of prior sales. The TTF rebuild is consistent with traders rotating from oil-front-month exposure to gas as the Hormuz situation evolves. The cross-asset flow signals Europe-summer demand hedging is still being built, even as oil sells off on Iran optimism. Pair with Kemp’s US-distillate-stocks-lowest-in-2-decades thesis — the energy-input-cost layer is structurally tight even as headline crude prices ease.

NFIB Small Business Optimism (May 13 release)

Energy + uncertainty topping “most important problem” rotation

The April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (most recent print) saw “single most important problem” rotate toward inflation and energy costs, displacing labor-quality as the top concern for the first time in several months. Capex plans softened, and the hiring-plans subindex sits at the low end of its post-pandemic range. The Uncertainty Index spiked, consistent with geopolitical fog. Small-business hiring intent typically leads BLS payrolls by 1-2 quarters, reinforcing the dovish labor pipeline. The May release lands May 13 — one day before the 30Y bond auction and two days before Warsh’s swearing-in.

Pulte / Cook indictment threat (via Timiraos) GOVERNANCE TAIL T-8

Trump housing director: Cook indictment “sufficient” for “for cause” removal

The highest-signal Fed governance development of the past 24 hours: Trump housing director Bill Pulte stated (relayed by Timiraos) he expects Fed Governor Lisa Cook to be indicted, and that the indictment alone would be sufficient grounds for removal “for cause” even short of a Supreme Court ruling. With FOMC dissent already at the most fractured level since 1993, an indictment-driven Cook removal pre-Warsh would tilt the board further from the Powell-Williams centrist posture. Markets are not pricing this risk in OIS or terminal-rate spreads. T‑8 days to the May 15 Warsh swearing-in — this is the single highest-impact Fed governance development since the 4-dissent FOMC.

Williams (NY Fed) — today’s Financial & Monetary History Conference

Policy “modestly restrictive”; conference-side remarks expected

NY Fed President John Williams hosts the 2026 Federal Reserve Financial & Monetary History Conference all day Thursday, with Wharton’s Peter Conti-Brown delivering the keynote. He has reiterated this week that the Committee will look through transitory components of the energy shock but will react to any sign that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. He stressed policy is “modestly restrictive” with a high bar for further action in either direction. Today’s conference is the most likely venue for Williams to put a centrist marker down before the Powell-Warsh transition.

Goolsbee (Chicago) / Waller framework — supply-side disinflation gets data validation

Waller’s “One Transitory Shock After Another” (April 17 Auburn) anchors dovish wing

Governor Christopher Waller’s April 17 Auburn lecture titled “One Transitory Shock After Another” remains the most-cited piece of intellectual cover for the dovish wing on the FOMC, paired with Goolsbee’s framework that supply-driven inflation should be looked through. Today’s Q1 ULC +2.3% (vs +4.6% prior revised) and productivity +0.8% are the cleanest data validation of that framework since the Iran war began. With softer JOLTS, claims at 200K and the labor pipeline trending dovish, the dissent rationale gets a real-time analytic boost — though Hammack/Logan/Schmid will counter with NY Fed SCE inflation expectations re-anchoring up.

Hammack (Cleveland) / Logan (Dallas) / Schmid (KC) hawkish bloc

Inflation-expectations risk frames symmetric — even hawkish — optionality

Three of the four April dissenters have in recent appearances emphasized that with headline CPI re-accelerating, the cost of allowing inflation expectations to drift outweighs the cost of maintaining current policy or even tightening. Logan in particular noted that the neutral rate has likely risen, implying current policy is less restrictive than headline real-rate math suggests. Pending home sales +7.7% YoY (Redfin/DeItaone today) reinforces that view — the rate-sensitive consumer is responding to modest spread relief, suggesting policy is less binding than nominal rates suggest. The hawkish bloc is positioning for a Powell-to-Warsh transition where their preferred reaction function gains primacy — though El-Erian’s read is that Warsh will lean toward earlier cuts.

Powell‑to‑Warsh Transition T‑8

T‑8 days to Warsh; Hartnett: EXIT tactical zero-coupon long BY MAY 15

Kevin Warsh’s Senate-confirmed swearing-in is May 15 (T‑8 days). Warsh’s pre-confirmation testimony emphasized rules-based policy, balance-sheet normalization, and skepticism toward permanent emergency liquidity facilities. El-Erian’s view that Warsh “will err on the side of lowering rates earlier” is the freshest external read on what to expect. Hartnett’s explicit instruction is to EXIT tactical zero-coupon long positions BY MAY 15 — he sees the regime-shift risk as too concentrated in that one date. The combination of an incoming Chair, a fractured Committee with four dissenters, the residual oil-shock supply pressure, and the Pulte/Cook indictment threat means May 15 is increasingly being priced as a binary regime-change day.

FOMC April 29 Minutes (release May 21)

Minutes drop six days post-Warsh swearing-in — cleanest dissent transcript

The April 29 FOMC minutes are scheduled for release Wednesday May 21, six days after Kevin Warsh’s May 15 swearing-in — meaning the most fractured FOMC transcript in 34 years lands on the desk of a Chair who did not chair the meeting. Markets will parse the minutes for the precise framing each dissenter used — Logan’s neutral-rate-rose argument, Hammack’s expectations-anchoring frame, Kashkari’s extended-Hormuz scenario, and the lone dovish dissenter’s case for a cut — against Warsh’s post-FOMC tone. The lag between the meeting and the minutes is now a meaningful structural feature of the duration trade.