RBC Capital Markets FRESH

SPX 12-mo target raised to 7,900 from 7,750 Saturday May 9 — superseded Sunday by Yardeni’s 8,250 raise

RBC raised its 12-month S&P 500 target to 7,900 (from 7,750) on Saturday May 9, briefly the highest active Wall Street print before Yardeni Research raised its 2026 target to 8,250 on Sunday May 10. RBC remains the second-highest active sell-side print. Index closed Friday at 7,398.93 (+8.1% YTD, +10.0% trailing 6 months). The upgrade chase rests on FactSet’s May 4 read showing Q1 blended EPS growth jumped to 27.1% from 15% a week earlier — Mag-7 led, justifying the move higher in 2026 EPS estimates that pulls the YE target with it. Active sell-side stack: BofA 7,100 (low), Wells Fargo 7,300, Stifel corridor 6,500-7,500, Goldman 7,600, JPM 7,600, Citi 7,700, MS 7,800, RBC 7,900, Yardeni 8,250 (new high).

Ed Yardeni / Yardeni Research FRESH

SPX 2026 target RAISED to 8,250 from 7,700 Sunday May 10 — new top of Street; Roaring 2020s odds 60% → 80%

Yardeni’s Sunday May 10 Market Call (delivered alongside the Week Ahead) raised the 2026 S&P target to 8,250 from 7,700 and raised Roaring‑2020s base‑case odds from 60% to 80% — the highest active sell‑side print, now ahead of RBC’s Saturday 7,900 (from 7,750). 8,250 represents ~11.5% upside from Friday close of 7,398.93. Earnings projected +18% Q1, +20% Q2–Q4 2026, with productivity‑led / AI‑enabled / capex‑funded structural framework now de‑risked by the April NFP +115K beat and the FactSet Q1 blended EPS print of +27.1% (up from +15% a week earlier, Mag‑7 led). Yardeni argues equity rotation is broadening away from concentrated Mag‑7 leadership — supports continued advance even if mega‑cap leaders pause. The Sunday raise IS the lede delta of the weekend.

Morgan Stanley / Mike Wilson

SPX 7,800 base reiterated — “earnings doing the heavy lifting, not headlines, not even the Fed”

Wilson’s May 4 “Thoughts on the Market” podcast doubled down on the bullish stance: typical S&P 500 company growing earnings ~16% in Q1 with median surprise ~6%. Maintains call that S&P 500 lows-for-the-year are in (April 14 call). Sees multiple-expansion potential in H2 2026 if Fed cuts resume. Bond-vol still flagged as the biggest equity risk; hyperscaler AI capex pencils to $1.1T in 2027 (3.3% of GDP).

JPMorgan / Dubravko Lakos-Bujas

SPX YE 7,600 held; multidimensional polarization; broadening leadership

JPM Global Research holds its SPX year-end target at 7,600 (raised April 21 from the 7,200 step). The desk’s framework sustains a long S&P, long quality / Mag-7 + cyclical-rotation barbell. With Q1 blended EPS +27.1% vs. 15% one week earlier, the desk’s “earnings-led” thesis has materially more support post-NFP weekend than three weeks ago.

Goldman Sachs / David Kostin

SPX 7,600 held; EPS $305 (+12%); “rally maturing rather than overheating”

Goldman’s Kostin holds his SPX year-end target at 7,600 with EPS $305 (+12%), assuming 2.5-2.6% GDP and 50bp of cuts in 2026. Forward P/E ~22x is flagged as historically high but framed as “rally maturing rather than overheating.” The May 8 NFP beat (+115K vs +62K cons) reinforces the soft-landing baseline; weekend Kickstart not yet publicly indexed.

Citi / Scott Chronert

SPX 7,700 base — “AI Adopters” rotation; oil 2Q/3Q/4Q $110/95/80

Citi’s Chronert holds his 7,700 SPX year-end target framed around an “AI Adopters” rotation. The freshest Citi delta into the weekend is the desk’s upgraded oil forecast: 2Q/3Q/4Q raised to $110/95/80 from prior 95/80/75 — the cleanest institutional Hormuz read still standing through Sunday. With WTI $95.60 and Brent $101 settled Friday, near-term targets already in zone.

BofA / Savita Subramanian FRESH

SPX 7,100 — multiple-compression call; AI “buy-the-dream” air pocket

BofA equity strategist Savita Subramanian holds the Street’s most bearish year-end SPX target at 7,100 (~4% downside from Friday close). Her thesis frames the gap between equity multiples and the real-rate environment as unsustainable. The BofA Bull-Bear Indicator stepped up to 6.6 from 6.3 (lifted by tighter HY/AT1 spreads, tech inflows, bullish gold/VIX positioning) — still neutral but marching toward the 8.0 sell trigger. Hartnett’s tactical zero-coupon EXIT BY MAY 15 = T-4.

Stifel / Barry Bannister

SPX 6,500-7,500 corridor — SPX already at top of bull range; recommends Defensive Growth + Defensive Value hedge

Bannister’s 2026 corridor: 6,500-7,500. Bull case +9% to 7,500 on low-teens EPS growth and one multiple of normal P/E compression; bear case −5% to 6,500 on 25% recession probability. With S&P at 7,399, the index is already at the top end of his bull corridor. Recommends hedging Big Tech exposure with Defensive Growth and Defensive Value (healthcare, staples, gold) — especially relevant heading into a CPI rebase Tuesday.

Wells Fargo Equity Strategy / Ohsung Kwon

SPX YE 7,300 (cut from 7,800) on Iran war + weak tax refunds — Hormuz still closed Sun

Wells Fargo trimmed its SPX year-end target to 7,300 from 7,800 (March 31 cut, still standing). The new target still implies modest downside vs. Friday’s 7,398.93 close. With Hormuz at zero commercial traffic ~96 hours through the weekend and Iran Saturday escalating rhetoric, the cautious posture remains in-frame for Monday open.

Larry McDonald / Bear Traps Report

Hard-vs-financial scorecard intact: BHP +42, RIO +35, URNM +23 vs MAGS +3, MSFT −14

McDonald’s 30/30/40 hard-asset rotation thesis remains the most-cited institutional X-feed framework. 2026 YTD scorecard intact: BHP +42%, RIO +35%, URNM (uranium miners) +23%, AA (aluminum) +18%, COPX +16%, COAL +13% — against MAGS +3%, META −7%, MSFT −14%. Capital migration into hard assets accelerates if Hormuz remains closed and CPI Tuesday reignites supply-side inflation framing.

Iran officials / Al Jazeera Sat May 9 FRESH

Hormuz leverage “on the level of an atomic bomb” — First VP frames as sanctions counter-tool

Iranian officials Saturday May 9 characterized Hormuz leverage as “on the level of an atomic bomb” — rhetoric that ratchets ahead of Monday’s Asia/US opens. Iran’s First VP framed Hormuz control as a sanctions counter-tool; Tehran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Saturday Iran is “still reviewing” Washington’s proposal and is ignoring US deadlines. Crude has not moved through the strait in roughly 96 hours by Sunday morning. The US is signaling possible naval-escort restart.

CNN / Russia Victory Day Parade Sat May 9 FRESH

Scaled-back parade (no tanks/missiles in 2 decades); North Korean troops marched in Red Square — 3-day ceasefire EXPIRES TODAY

Russia held a notably scaled-back Victory Day parade Saturday May 9 — the first time in nearly two decades without tanks or missiles, citing the “current operational situation.” The Trump-brokered three-day ceasefire (Sat-Mon) is in effect but both sides have already traded violation accusations within hours. Notable: North Korean troops marched in Red Square for the first time. The ceasefire EXPIRES TODAY May 11 — the same day US markets reopen — and is the single most-actionable wildcard heading into Sunday-night futures reopen.

NPR / US trade court 10% global tariff strike (Thu) + DOJ appeal Friday FRESH

CIT 2-1 ruled tariff unlawful; DOJ filed notice of appeal Friday May 8

Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 Thursday May 7 that Trump’s 10% global tariff is unlawful — judges rejected the administration’s conflation of “balance-of-payments deficits” (Section 122, Trade Act 1974) with “trade deficits.” DOJ filed notice of appeal Friday May 8. Trump told reporters Thursday night: “We always do it a different way.” Tariff legal status is now bifurcated heading into Monday open — markets will need clarity on which tariffs survive the appeal.

Fortune oil tracker / Friday close

WTI $95.42 / Brent $101.29 settled Fri; weekly −7% / −6%

Brent settled near $101.29/bbl Friday May 8 (+1.2% on day), WTI roughly $95.42 — both posted weekly losses of ~6% (Brent) and ~7% (WTI) as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire intermittently held. Renewed clashes Friday tempered optimism on a quick deal. Levels to watch Sunday-night reopen: Brent $101.29 / WTI $95.42. Citi’s 2Q/3Q/4Q $110/95/80 forecast still standing — near-term targets already in zone.

Apr 2026 CPI release Tuesday May 12 — rebases to Dec-2024 = 100 FRESH

Series rebase creates comparison friction with prior prints

BLS confirmed April 2026 CPI release for Tuesday May 12 at 8:30 AM ET. Notably, with this release several CPI series rebase to December 2024 = 100 — first publication under the new base will create comparison friction for headline readers. Next monthly print after this: June 10 (May data). The rebase is an under-discussed technical wrinkle worth flagging: cross-vintage comparisons need recalibration before signal extraction.

Apollo / Torsten Sløk

K-shape recovery widening; 30% recession odds intact

Apollo’s Sløk continues to flag the K-shape recovery: top-third of households in expansion territory, bottom third in recession. He sustains a 30% recession-odds estimate and warns the bifurcation makes aggregate consumption data noisy. April retail sales Wednesday will be the cleanest aggregate-vs-distribution test. (Carryover — last republished early May.)

Jim Bianco / Bianco Advisors

UK 30Y 5.76% highest since 1998 — long-end stress is global; 4.25% 10Y the buy zone

Bianco’s framework: UK 30Y gilt yields at 5.76%, the highest since 1998 — the cleanest non-US confirmation that long-end stress is a global phenomenon, not a US-specific FOMC artifact. He sustains the call that 10Y yields above 4.25% are the long-side trigger. Treasury’s Wednesday $25B 30Y refunding lands 24 hours after CPI — the week’s convexity test.

Mark Zandi / Moody’s Analytics

Iran war did “more damage than tariffs” — supply-shock view

Zandi’s framework reframes the prevailing “tariffs are the dominant macro risk” consensus: the Iran war has done “more damage than tariffs” to the US economic outlook. With Hormuz at zero commercial transit ~96 hours and Iran Saturday escalating rhetoric, the supply-shock view has fresh weight heading into Tuesday’s CPI rebase — energy and goods baskets are the rebase’s most-affected components.

Newsquawk Weekly Calendar May 11-15

CPI Tue / PPI Wed / Retail Sales Wed / 30Y refunding Wed — data-then-supply

Heavy data week: April CPI Tuesday May 12, April PPI mid-week, April Retail Sales mid-week. Combined with the refunding (3Y Mon $58B / 10Y Tue $42B / 30Y Wed $25B), it’s a classic “data-then-supply” sequence with potential for outsized rate volatility Wed/Thu — particularly with CPI 24 hours before the long-end auction.

TheStreet / Friday May 8 close recap FRESH

SPX 7,398.93 +0.84% / Nasdaq 26,247.08 +1.71% / Dow 49,609.16 / Russell 2,861.19 — six-week win streak

Friday May 8 closes: S&P 500 7,398.93 (+0.84%), Nasdaq Composite 26,247.08 (+1.71%), Dow 49,609.16 (+0.02%), Russell 2000 2,861.19 (+0.76%). All three majors set fresh records as April NFP printed +115K vs +62K consensus with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Six-week win streak is now the longest since 2024. S&P weekly +2.3%, Nasdaq weekly +4.5%. Sets Monday open into already-stretched technical conditions.

SPY / Stockinvest pivot levels

SPY $737.62 Fri; Mon May 11 fair open ~$736.76; SPX 7,400 the key Mon resistance cluster

SPY closed Friday $737.62 (+0.83%), with predicted fair open Monday May 11 at $736.76. DeMark pivot high $722.76, pivot low $718.36 (now well-below). Support clusters $726.32 and $688.61; barchart S&P pivot 7,351.39 with resistance cluster at the psychological 7,400 zone. Index at fresh ATH means little overhead — extension trade above 7,400 vs. mean-reversion to 50-DMA near 7,200 is the Monday setup.

SpyOptions Substack / Free Mon May 11 Levels (Sat note)

Independent levels-publisher Sun prep; aligns with 7,400 SPX cluster

Independent levels-publisher pre-Monday note circulating with SPY/SPX/ES actionable zones for May 11 open. Aligns with the 7,400 SPX resistance cluster and 7,236-7,253 immediate support reference grid widely quoted into the weekend. Useful for Sunday-night ES futures reopen frame.

Walter Deemer / Wayne Whaley 13-0 setup STILL LIVE FRESH

Whaley/Deemer 13-0 May 7-29 setup — window remains open through Friday May 29

Wayne Whaley’s historical setup — when Nasdaq is up ≥5% Apr 7-May 7, the May 7-29 window has been 13-for-13 historically — remains LIVE through Friday May 29. With the Nasdaq Composite up 17.2% over the trailing month into May 7, the seasonal kicker is still in-frame for Monday open. (Carryover signal — first reposted by Deemer Thu May 7 evening; valid through expiry Friday May 29.)

CarsonResearch / Ryan Detrick

Bullish multi-year — labor market strong, no recession in 2026; political-cycle pattern

Detrick (Carson) bullish multi-year: labor market “in much better shape than people give it credit for,” no recession in 2026. Highlights political-cycle pattern producing “really solid returns.” Frames May 8 NFP beat as confirmation of soft-landing thesis already pricing through equities. (Most recent CNBC video May 5; framework current through Sun.)

FXCM / Equal-weight rotation analysis

RSP outperforming SPX YTD & 12M — broadest rotation signal in years

Equal-weight S&P (RSP) outperforming cap-weight (SPX) YTD and 12M — broadest rotation signal in years. Tens of billions flowing into energy, industrials, staples, utilities and other “old economy” sectors. XLF picked up nearly $4B YTD vs $1B outflow last year. Mag-7 dominance fading at the margin even as nominal index makes new highs — breadth thrust supportive of further upside if Mag-7 stalls.

Trading Economics / WTI & Gold technical

WTI $95.60 Fri / Gold $4,725 (breakout above $4,700 confirmed)

WTI crude (CL) traded $95.60 on Friday May 8 amid ongoing Middle East exchanges. Gold (GC) spot above $4,725/oz, with Friday breakout above $4,700 confirmed. Elevated commodities reflect geopolitical risk premium even as equities ignored. Sunday-night reopen levels critical for the metals/oil tape into Mon Asia.

US 10Y / Advisor Perspectives Treasury Yields Snapshot Fri

10Y 4.38% Fri close — contained despite hot NFP

10-year UST closed Friday May 8 at 4.38%. Within prior month’s range; 30-day high 4.464%. Yields contained despite hot NFP, suggesting bond market viewed payroll beat as goldilocks rather than reflationary. Treasury 30Y refunding Wed $25B is the convexity test — long-end demand 24 hours after CPI is the key tape signal mid-week.

AAII Sentiment Survey (week ending May 7) FRESH

Bull 38.3% (+0.2pp); Bear 33.0% (−7.0pp); spread +5.3

Week ending May 6: Bullish 38.3% (+0.2 pp, third time above 37.5% historical average in 12 weeks), Neutral 28.7%, Bearish 33.0% (−7.0). Bull‑bear spread +5.3 vs historical +6.5. Pessimism eased; sentiment rotating from neutral‑skeptical to mildly constructive — but nowhere near euphoric AAII levels (40s+) that historically mark intermediate tops. Direct Chrome fetch of AAII.com sentiment survey confirmed.

NAAIM Exposure Index (Wed May 6 print) FRESH

96.67 active managers near fully invested — up from 93.79 prior

NAAIM Exposure Index 96.67 for week of May 6, up from 93.79 prior week (Apr 29). Active managers near fully invested — readings near 100 historically associated with stretched positioning, often preceding short-term consolidation. The 3-point weekly bump confirms managers chased the breakout post-NFP. Carryover — next print Wednesday May 13 (post-CPI).

CNN Fear & Greed Index FRESH

67–69 Greed regime — +40-pt swing in 30 days from 27 Fear

CNN Fear & Greed Index = 67 (“Greed”) into the weekend with reading reaching 69 just shy of “Extreme Greed” (>75 threshold). One month ago reading was 27 (Fear) — a +40-point swing in 30 days. Buffett “fearful when others are greedy” framing being recycled by financial media into Sun.

CBOE Put/Call Ratios

Equity P/C 0.53 (retail) vs SPX P/C 1.14 (institutional) — classic late-cycle bifurcation

CBOE Equity put/call ratio Friday May 8 = 0.53 (bullish skew, retail call buying robust). SPX index put/call = 1.14 (institutional hedging in play). VIX closed 17.19 (+0.64%). Divergence between equity P/C and SPX P/C is a classic late-cycle signature — retail euphoric, institutional buying portfolio insurance. Setup is cautionary into CPI Tuesday.

BofA Bull-Bear Indicator (Hartnett Flow Show vintage)

6.6 marching toward 8.0 sell trigger; Boom Loop framing intact

BofA Bull-Bear Indicator at 6.6, up from 6.3, lifted by tighter HY/AT1 spreads, tech inflows, and bullish gold/VIX positioning — still neutral but marching toward 8.0 sell trigger. Hartnett’s “Boom Loop” framing: government spending fueling US nominal GDP path from $20T (2020) to projected $35T (2027) — bullish stocks/commodities, bearish bonds/USD. Tactical zero-coupon EXIT BY MAY 15 = T-4 from Sunday. (Latest publicly indexed Flow Show vintage; Friday May 8 not yet indexed.)

Lipper / ICI Fund Flows

Equity ETFs +$18.57B (week-ending Apr 29); duration buying alongside equity chase

ICI week-ended Apr 29: long-term mutual funds −$16.84B (outflows), but taxable bond +$7.12B, muni +$1.36B; equity ETFs +$18.57B (domestic +$14.37B, world +$4.19B); taxable bond ETFs +$6.36B. May 5 daily snapshot: $9.85B total ETF inflows, US fixed income led at $4.85B vs US equity $2.46B — duration-buying alongside equity chasing. Flow regime constructive but stretched.

Stifel / Bannister portfolio framework

Hedge Big Tech with Defensive Growth + Defensive Value (healthcare, staples, gold)

Bannister’s 2026 portfolio framework: with SPX at 7,399 already at the top end of his 6,500-7,500 corridor, he recommends hedging Big Tech with Defensive Growth and Defensive Value (healthcare, staples, gold). The framework is more relevant heading into Tuesday’s CPI rebase — if CPI prints hot, Big Tech multiple compression risk re-emerges; Defensive Growth + gold the natural hedge.

BlackRock Investment Institute

OW US & EM equities on AI; pro-risk stance hinges on Hormuz reopening

BlackRock’s May 4 weekly: “Earnings strength keeps us risk-on” — OW US + EM equities on the AI mega force; 83% of S&P 500 beat Q1 by avg 11% (two-thirds of beats from AI infra/datacenter complex). Pro-risk stance hinges on Hormuz reopening — with the strait at zero traffic ~96 hours into Sunday, the BlackRock caveat is now load-bearing for Mon open.

PIMCO — Wilding/Balls “Layered Uncertainty”

Modest OW duration; balanced curve; treat liquidity as an asset

Wilding/Balls’ update frames the Iran energy supply shock as stagflationary IF prolonged. PIMCO retains a “modest overweight to duration” with “more balanced curve exposure as the curve has steepened.” Liquidity treated as an asset class. Positioning constructive for the Wed 30Y refunding under a hot-CPI scenario.

Vanguard — Economic and Market Outlook (Apr 22 update)

2026 GDP 2.3% / U-rate 4.6% / inflation 2.8% on Mideast shock; one 25bp cut still expected

Vanguard’s April 22 outlook update cut 2026 GDP by 0.2pp to 2.3%, raised the year-end U-rate to 4.6% from 4.2%, and bumped inflation to 2.8% (+0.2pp) on the Mideast shock. Still expects one 25bp cut from the 3.50-3.75% range but with risk skewed toward later/fewer. The April NFP +115K beat (Friday) likely pushes Vanguard toward removing the cut path entirely — watch for an updated outlook this week.

Goldman Prime Brokerage

Hedge funds CUT total L+S equity positions by most since Sept into rally; gross leverage falling

Goldman’s prime brokerage desk reports hedge funds used the post-March US-equity rally to reduce risk: total L+S equity positions cut by the most since September, gross leverage falling as managers covered short hedges aggressively into the rally. Mag-7 = 19% of net exposure (vs ~11% early April). Setup is asymmetric: HFs underweight risk into a CPI rebase week with 13F deadline Friday.

Yardeni / equity rotation broadening

Roaring 2020s 60% base case; rotation broadening away from concentrated Mag-7 leadership

Yardeni argues equity rotation is broadening away from concentrated Mag-7 leadership — supports continued advance even if mega-cap leaders pause. RSP (equal-weight) outperforming SPX YTD and 12M. XLF +$4B YTD inflow vs $1B outflow last year; energy, industrials, staples, utilities all picking up flows. Frame supports buying the dip on Mag-7 if Mag-7 stalls.

Russia-Ukraine 3-day Trump-brokered ceasefire EXPIRES TODAY FRESH

Concurrent w/ markets reopen; both sides traded violation accusations within hours of Sat start

The single most-actionable catalyst Mon May 11. Trump-brokered three-day ceasefire (Sat-Mon) ends the same session US cash markets re-open; both sides have already traded violation accusations within hours of its Saturday start. Russia held a scaled-back Victory Day parade Saturday May 9 — first in nearly two decades without tanks/missiles — with North Korean troops marching in Red Square. Outcome paths: (a) extension/de-escalation = bullish; (b) renewed kinetic = oil/risk-off; (c) muddled status quo = neutral but headline-vol elevated.

BLS April CPI — Tue May 12 8:30 ET FRESH

Series rebases to Dec-2024 = 100 with this release; comparison friction with prior prints

The pivot of the week. BLS confirmed April CPI release Tuesday May 12 8:30 AM ET. Notably, with this release several CPI series rebase to December 2024 = 100 — first publication will create comparison friction for headline readers. Next monthly print after this: June 10 (May data). Hot print = bond sell-off into Wed 30Y; cool print = bull continuation. Rebase is an under-discussed technical wrinkle.

April PPI & April Retail Sales — Wed May 13 8:30 ET

Same morning as 30Y refunding $25B 1:00 PM ET — data-then-supply

April PPI and April Retail Sales both release Wednesday morning. Treasury’s $25B 30Y bond auction is the same afternoon at 1:00 PM ET — classic data-then-supply sequence. With CPI printed Tuesday, the long-end demand reading is the week’s convexity test. Retail Sales triangulates with WMT (Thu BMO), HD (Tue BMO), and TGT (Wed BMO) for consumer pricing-power signal.

US Treasury Quarterly Refunding — 3 legs Mon-Wed

3Y $58B Mon / 10Y $42B Tue / 30Y $25B Wed — all settle Fri May 15 (Warsh)

Treasury’s May 6 refunding statement: $58B 3Y Mon May 11 1:00 PM, $42B 10Y Tue May 12 1:00 PM (CPI same morning), $25B 30Y Wed May 13 1:00 PM (PPI/Retail Sales same morning) — all settle Friday May 15 (Warsh swearing-in day). Refunds ~$83.3B maturing privately-held debt; net new cash $41.7B. Sizes maintained per Treasury’s prior guidance.

Earnings week ahead

WMT, HD, TGT, CSCO, BABA, DE, Li Auto — consumer-facing heavyweights

Big-box / consumer-facing earnings dominate week ahead: Walmart (WMT, Thu BMO), Home Depot (HD, Tue BMO), Target (TGT, Wed BMO), Cisco (CSCO Tue AMC, cons $1.04 EPS / $15.6B rev / +10% YoY), Alibaba (BABA Thu BMO), Deere (DE Thu BMO), Li Auto. Reads will be triangulated against Tuesday’s CPI for consumer pricing-power signal — the most informative micro-macro week of Q1 reporting season.

Powell-to-Warsh transition — Fri May 15 (T-4) FRESH

Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair; Hartnett tactical zero-coupon EXIT date

T-4 days from Monday to Kevin Warsh’s Senate-confirmed swearing-in Friday May 15. Warsh’s pre-confirmation testimony emphasized rules-based policy, balance-sheet normalization, and skepticism toward permanent emergency liquidity facilities. Hartnett’s tactical zero-coupon EXIT BY MAY 15 = T-4. The April 28-29 FOMC minutes follow Wed May 20 at 2:00 PM ET (5 days post-Warsh) — cleanest dissent transcript in 34 years.

Q1 13F filing deadline — Fri May 15

Bulk filings May 11-15; reflect March 31 holdings

Q1 2026 13F deadline Friday May 15. Filings begin trickling in Mon-Tue; bulk Wed-Fri. Reported positions reflect March 31 holdings — already 45 days stale, but flow indicator for crowd positioning into Q2. Notable single-name watch: hedge fund Mag-7 trim flagged by GS PB; activist additions; small-cap rotators.

US trade court 10% global tariff strike — DOJ appeal pending

Court ruled Thu unlawful; DOJ appeal Fri; legal status bifurcated

Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 Thursday May 7 that Trump’s 10% global tariff is unlawful; DOJ filed notice of appeal Friday May 8. Trump told reporters Thursday night: “We always do it a different way.” Tariff legal status now bifurcated heading into Monday open — markets need clarity on which tariffs survive the appeal pending higher-court review.

CBS Face the Nation (Sun May 10) FRESH

Airs 10:30 ET / streams 12:30 ET; weekend talk-show signal-extraction

Face the Nation Sunday May 10 airs at 10:30 a.m. ET / streams 12:30 p.m. ET. Specific guest list not surfaced in advance; prior week (May 3) featured NEC Director Kevin Hassett. Briefing should treat Sunday-show content as a known unknown until tape lands — weekend talk-show output is a primary US-policy signal extractor heading into Monday open.

RBC Capital Markets (Sat May 9) FRESH

SPX 12-mo target raised to 7,900 from 7,750 — freshest Sat sell-side delta

RBC’s Saturday May 9 upgrade to 7,900 (from 7,750) was briefly the highest active Wall Street print before Yardeni Research raised to 8,250 on Sunday May 10, becoming the new top of Street. RBC now sits second-highest, ahead of MS Wilson’s 7,800. The weekend produced the cleanest two sell-side deltas of the cycle: RBC Sat + Yardeni Sun, both bull‑side, with the Yardeni Roaring‑2020s odds raise (60%→80%) the more aggressive framing.

Iran officials weekend statements (Al Jazeera Sat)

Hormuz leverage “on the level of an atomic bomb” — rhetoric escalation

Iranian officials Saturday characterized Hormuz leverage as “on the level of an atomic bomb” — the most aggressive Iran-side rhetoric this cycle. The First VP framed Hormuz control as a sanctions counter-tool. Tehran’s Foreign Ministry: still “reviewing” US proposal, ignoring deadlines. Sets a hawkish-Iran tape into Sunday-night ES futures reopen.

Russia Victory Day Parade (Sat May 9)

No tanks/missiles 2 decades; North Korean troops marched Red Square — ceasefire optics

Saturday’s Russian Victory Day parade was notably scaled back — first time in nearly two decades without tanks or missiles on display, citing the “current operational situation.” North Korean troops marched in Red Square for the first time. The optics complicate the Trump-brokered ceasefire framework that expires Monday concurrent with US market reopen.

Yahoo Finance / BTC + ETH Friday close

BTC ~$80,200 (weekly +1.98%) / ETH ~$2,300 (weekly −1.60%)

BTC opened Friday at $80,015.27 (down 1.7% from Thursday), trading $80,206 by 7:18 a.m. ET; ETH opened $2,290.98 (down 2.5%), held near $2,300. Weekly: BTC +1.98%, ETH −1.60%. Hovering above $80K threshold heading into weekend Mideast peace-talk headlines — safe-haven framing reinforced by gold breakout above $4,700.

Mike Wilson / Morgan Stanley “Thoughts on the Market” (May 4)

“Earnings doing the heavy lifting” — bullish stance reiterated

Wilson’s May 4 podcast: “earnings doing the heavy lifting — not headlines, not even the Fed.” Q1 reporting season had typical S&P 500 company growing earnings ~16% with median surprise ~6%. Maintains S&P 500 lows-for-the-year are in (April 14 call). Sees multiple expansion potential in H2 2026 if Fed cuts resume. Carryover into Sun.

FactSet (May 4 update) FRESH

Q1 blended EPS growth jumped to 27.1% from 15% a week earlier — Mag-7 led

FactSet’s May 4 read: Q1 blended EPS growth jumped to 27.1% from 15% a week earlier — Mag-7 led. The data validates the upgrade momentum across sell-side targets (RBC to 7,900 Sat, prior moves to 7,700-7,800 range). 83% of S&P 500 beat Q1 by avg 11% per BlackRock. Two-thirds of beats from AI infra/datacenter complex. Frame supports continued earnings-led tape into back half of 2026.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Q2 tracking +3.7% as of May 7; refreshes post-CPI Tue

GDPNow Q2 tracking +3.7% as of May 7 update — sharp acceleration from Q1’s 2% annualized. Trajectory of recent updates stable around 3.5-3.8%. Refreshes incorporating Apr CPI on Tuesday; that update is the cleanest second-look at Q2 nowcast amid the rebase. Hot CPI + +3.7% Q2 = no Fed cut path, supports Hatzius September call.

Q1 Productivity / Unit Labor Costs (BLS May 7 print)

ULC +2.3% (vs +4.6% prior); productivity +0.8% — supply-side disinflation

Thursday’s BLS release: nonfarm productivity +0.8% (vs 0.6% expected, last revised to 1.6%); unit labor costs +2.3% (vs 2.5% expected, last revised lower to 4.6%). Productivity beat slightly, ULC undershot meaningfully — the textbook supply-side disinflation read that underpins the dovish Goolsbee/Waller framework. Carryover into CPI Tuesday.

NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (April release)

1Y inflation 3.64% (+0.22pp); 3Y 3.15%; 30Y mortgage 6.45% highest in a month

April NY Fed SCE: median 1-year-ahead inflation expectations rose 0.22pp to 3.64%, 3-year horizon to 3.15%, 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.45% (highest in a month). The 1Y is the most signal-rich tenor for the FOMC’s anchoring bar — the move reinforces hawkish framing for the Williams/Logan/Schmid bloc heading into the Warsh transition.

Initial Jobless Claims (May 7 print)

200K (vs 205K cons / 189K prior 1969-low); continuing 1.766M

Thursday claims printed 200K vs 205K consensus and 189K prior — an uptick from the 1969 low but still under expectations. Continuing claims at 1.766M (vs 1.785M consensus). With ADP +115K (Wed) and NFP +115K (Fri), labor data triangulates to a stable but no-longer-tight setup. Carryover into next claims print Thu.

US trade court 10% global tariff strike + DOJ appeal

Court ruled Thu; DOJ appealed Fri; legal status bifurcated

Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 Thursday May 7 that Trump’s 10% global tariff is unlawful — judges rejected administration’s conflation of “balance-of-payments deficits” with “trade deficits.” DOJ filed notice of appeal Friday May 8. Trump: “We always do it a different way.” Markets need clarity on which tariffs survive appeal pending higher-court review.

Powell-to-Warsh Transition T-4 FRESH

Kevin Warsh sworn in Fri May 15; Hartnett tactical zero-coupon EXIT date

T-4 days from Monday to Kevin Warsh’s Senate-confirmed swearing-in Friday May 15. Warsh’s pre-confirmation testimony emphasized rules-based policy, balance-sheet normalization, and skepticism toward permanent emergency liquidity facilities. Hartnett’s tactical zero-coupon EXIT BY MAY 15 = T-4. The transition is the single highest-asymmetric Fed-governance datapoint of the year.

FOMC April 28-29 Minutes (Wed May 20 2:00 PM ET) FRESH

Cleanest dissent transcript in 34 years — 5 days post-Warsh

April 28-29 FOMC minutes scheduled for Wednesday May 20 at 2:00 PM ET, five days after Kevin Warsh’s May 15 swearing-in. Most fractured FOMC transcript in 34 years lands while markets are absorbing the new Fed Chair. Four dissenters at the April meeting: Hammack, Logan, Schmid, Kashkari. Minutes reveal the precise hawkish-bloc framing.

Williams (NY Fed) hawkish nudge from Wed May 7 Newburgh remarks

Tariffs/energy “disrupted progress on inflation control”

NY Fed President John Williams spoke Wednesday May 7 in Newburgh, NY: “Rising tariffs and energy prices have disrupted progress on inflation control.” Mild hawkish nudge from his May 4 baseline. With Hormuz still closed Sun and CPI rebasing Tue, Williams’s framing has more weight heading into the Warsh transition than a week ago.

Goldman Sachs / Jan Hatzius

First Fed cut PUSHED to September from June — data has firmed

Goldman’s Hatzius pushed his first-cut call to September from June, citing firmer ADP, the 200K claims print, ULC dynamics, and the four-dissent FOMC making a near-term move politically as well as economically harder. The shift is meaningful: it puts Goldman in line with Vanguard’s “one cut later/risk skewed” framing.

CNBC Fed Survey (April 28 vintage)

Only 58% see ANY cut in 2026; CPI bumped to 3.1%; Boockvar: “Fed is a spectator”

Fed-funds rate forecast falls only 0.14pp this year (to 3.5%); 2027 averaging 3.2% (under 2 cuts). CPI forecast 3.1% in 2026 (up from 2.7% prior). Only 58% of respondents see any cut in 2026. Boockvar: “Fed is a spectator.” Carryover frame into Tuesday’s CPI rebase.

Hammack / Logan / Schmid hawkish bloc

Inflation expectations re-anchoring up = hawkish optionality preserved

Three of the four April dissenters have in recent appearances emphasized that with headline CPI re-accelerating and inflation expectations re-anchoring up (NY Fed SCE 1Y 3.64%, +0.22pp), the cost of allowing inflation expectations to drift outweighs the cost of maintaining current policy or even tightening. Logan in particular notes “the bar to cut has risen.”

Goolsbee / Waller framework

Waller’s “One Transitory Shock After Another” (April 17) anchors dovish wing

Waller’s April 17 Auburn lecture remains the most-cited intellectual cover for the dovish wing on the FOMC, paired with Goolsbee’s framework that supply-side disinflation (Q1 ULC +2.3%) is asymmetric and tariff inflation is “one-time level shift.” The dovish wing’s post-Warsh standing is the under-discussed governance question of the week.