Yardeni Research — Ed Yardeni 8,250 SPX year-end (top of Street)

Yardeni’s Wednesday May 13 Morning Briefing — “On Booming Earnings, European Politics & Dangerous AI” — frames the meltup as fundamentally an earnings phenomenon, with analyst Joe Feshbach concluding the boom is “widespread” rather than concentrated in hyperscalers, while William flags European right-wing political ascendancy as driving Gilt and Bund yields higher into a tax-cuts-without-spending-cuts regime. Companion QuickTakes is the most important sell-side counter-narrative running this morning: despite hot April CPI, a 2021-22 wage-price spiral remains unlikely because unit-labor-cost inflation is running just 1.2% y/y, the NFIB three-month-average compensation-plans series sits at 19% versus the 2022 peak of 32%, and the April rent jump is flagged as a one-shot BLS reconciliation anomaly from the 47-day shutdown.

RBC Capital Markets — Lori Calvasina 7,900 SPX (raised Thu May 8)

RBC’s Lori Calvasina lifted her year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 7,750 last Thursday on a “two-speed” economy framework: AI hyperscaler earnings doing the heavy lifting and offsetting a 7.5% cut to non-AI EPS forecasts. The team is leaving AI-linked estimates close to consensus while marking down the rest — a tacit acknowledgement that Mag-7 dependency is now the bull case, not the risk case. With Yardeni at 8,250 and RBC at 7,900, the Street’s revision skew is firmly higher into Wednesday’s PPI print, even as Hartnett’s tactical Bull-Bear gauge sits near 6.6 in “neutral but warming” territory.

Morgan Stanley — Mike Wilson 7,800 12-mo target

Mike Wilson — Wall Street’s most rehabilitated bull — holds his 7,800 12-month S&P 500 target on 17% EPS growth to $317 and his “lows are in” April call. Top sector tilts remain Financials, Industrials and Healthcare with the recent small-caps-over-large upgrade still in place on the first earnings-revision crossover in over a year. Wilson’s framing — that 2026 will be carried by operating-leverage expansion rather than multiple compression — is the cleanest counter to the Rosenberg/Hartnett bubble warnings, and pairs with the AI capex food-chain stack (semis, power, grid, industrials) that Stephanie Link, Tom Lee and Apollo’s Slok keep re-publishing. The RUT −2.34% Tuesday session is the early stress-test of Wilson’s small-cap re-rate.

HSBC — Nicole Inui 7,650 SPX year-end

HSBC’s Nicole Inui sits at 7,650 year-end after this week’s bump, the lowest of the recently-raised strategist stack and a notable contrast to Yardeni at 8,250. HSBC’s framing emphasizes a more cautious EPS path with greater sensitivity to oil and the Hormuz tail — exactly the variables driving Tuesday’s hot April CPI print and the 30Y yield’s break of 5.00% that Kobeissi is calling a “bond market crisis.” The 7,650 target sits roughly 250 points above Tuesday’s 7,400.96 close, implying limited upside vs the more bullish desks but no recession baseline either. Inui’s quiet caution is the closest mainstream desk-view to Rosenberg’s downside framing without leaving the bull camp entirely.

Goldman Sachs — David Kostin / Ben Snider 7,600 (most dovish anchor)

Goldman’s outgoing chief US equity strategist David Kostin and successor Ben Snider remain at 7,600 year-end, anchored on $305-309 EPS and 12% earnings growth — a number now visibly lapped by Yardeni (8,250), RBC (7,900), Morgan Stanley (7,800) and Barclays/HSBC (7,650). With SPX closing Tuesday at 7,400.96 and hot April CPI on the tape, Kostin’s 22x forward multiple defense of “earnings durability” is being tested in real time. Goldman’s most recent Prime Brokerage note has hedge funds cutting net leverage the most since September 2025 with Mag-7 at 19% of US single-stock net exposure — a notable read into a Wednesday with NVDA at $5.4T and Huang on Air Force One.

Barclays — Venu Krishna 7,650 (Industrials / Materials / Energy)

Barclays’ Venu Krishna is at 7,650 year-end on $321 EPS, with explicit Industrials “positive” upgrade and Materials/Energy lifted to “neutral” — the highest-conviction sell-side endorsement of the “Grid 2.0” / AI capex / higher-oil sector tilt that has since become consensus. With WTI back to $101.15 this morning and Brent at $106.90, Krishna’s energy-as-positive-sector-contribution call is being live-tested through Hormuz disruption. The team explicitly argued that the inflation pass-through from oil to PPI was outweighed by the industrial super-cycle — a thesis that will be marked-to-market by today’s 8:30 ET April PPI release.

BofA Securities — Michael Hartnett Bull-Bear 6.6 / “bull trap”

Hartnett’s Bull & Bear Indicator ticked to 6.6 from 6.3 on the most recent Wednesday print — boosted by tighter HY and AT1 spreads, tech inflows and more bullish gold/VIX positioning, but still inside the neutral band rather than the >8 sell trigger. Friday May 9 Flow Show explicitly warned of a “bull trap”: Nasdaq’s 13-day winning streak (longest since July 2009), oversold-to-overbought in 11 days (2nd-fastest since 1982), single-week cash inflow record $172.2B, YTD cash funds $972bn (3rd-largest ever), BofA institutional sentiment most pessimistic since June 2025. April CPI +3.8% / +2.8% feeds straight into his Run-It-Hot framework; Goldman PB and Hartnett now tell the SAME tech-rotation story.

Stephanie Link — Hightower EQ-weight margins 14.3% vs 14.5% old highs

Hightower CIO Stephanie Link’s May 11 framing post (pinned and re-circulated): SPX +17% and QQQ +27% from March 30 lows are tracking Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 3.7% and EPS up 25%. Key broadening data point: equal-weight margins expanding to 14.3% — vs old highs at 14.5%. Translation: “productivity with growth”. Link’s AI-food-chain reads (AMD DC +57% YoY, AWS +28%, Azure +40%, GOOGL Cloud +63%) explicitly label this the “2nd inning” of electrification/data-center capex. Long ideas on tape May 5-11: MRVL, PANW, AVGO, NOW, SNPS, VRT, DHI, META, AMZN. Notable: silent on X since CPI — either traveling or holding fire for live TV.

Apollo Daily Spark — Torsten Slok “US Government Finances Not Ready for a Recession”

Slok’s Wednesday May 13 Daily Spark — “US Government Finances Are Not Ready for a Recession” — is the most pointed sovereign-debt warning he has published this cycle and lands precisely on the morning Germany 30y is at its highest since 2011 and the US Treasury reopens $25B of the 30Y at 13:00 ET. The thesis: in past recessions the budget deficit widens ~4% of GDP, but the US has “never entered a recession with this little fiscal buffer.” Investment implication, per Slok: do NOT expect lower interest rates to bail out valuations. The standard “Fed cuts, multiples expand” playbook breaks when the sovereign borrower is stretched, inflation is sticky on energy/tariffs/immigration, and Treasury is funding record deficits almost entirely through T-bills.

Mohamed El-Erian — Allianz / Wharton PPI cons +4.8% y/y / +4.3% core / Gilt 30Y 5.10%

El-Erian posted four minutes before pre-market access: “Following yesterday’s hotter-than-expected US CPI data for April, attention turns to this morning’s PPI numbers… The consensus forecast expects headline PPI to climb to 4.8% (up from 4.0% in March), with the core reading projected at 4.3% (up from 3.8%).” The Gilt thread flags the 30Y at a level “not seen since March 1998” and the 10Y above 5.10%, comparing it to a “Liz Truss moment” risk. Tuesday’s tape: 2Y hit 3.97%, 10Y 4.43%, 30Y 5.00%, 10Y breakeven 2.50%.

The Kobeissi Letter NVDA $5.4T / 30Y >5.00% / hike odds 31%

Kobeissi’s overnight thread is the single highest-conviction macro shift surfaced this morning: NVDA punched to a record $5.4 trillion as Trump confirmed Jensen Huang is on Air Force One headed to Beijing, alongside Musk, Cook, Fink, Schwarzman, Ortberg, Sikes, Fraser, Culp, Solomon, Mehrotra and Amon — “never in history has such a trip even remotely near this scale and caliber occurred.” Separately, Kobeissi flags Fed rate-HIKE odds for 2026 surging to 31% post-CPI (“just months ago, markets were pricing in 3+ interest rate CUTS this year”), the 30Y above 5.00%, copper at a record $6.58/lb on data-center demand, and federal employment falling −9,000 in April to the lowest since May 1996.

Charlie Bilello — Creative Planning 62 months above 2% / Fed lost credibility

Bilello’s overnight thread is the closest thing the market has to a real-time CPI rebuttal of the rate-cut-friendly narrative: “62 consecutive months with US inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation.” Five-year cumulative price stack: Coffee +105%, Ground Beef +68%, Fuel Oil +63%, Auto Insurance +58%, Gasoline +42%, Electricity/Eggs +39%. The 16% SPX gain in six weeks is the 11th biggest 6-week move since 1950 and the ONLY example in the top 20 that did not occur during or immediately after a bear market low. Nasdaq 25k→26k in under a week was the fastest 1,000-point milestone on record.

Liz Ann Sonders — Charles Schwab Equal-wt approaching Nov 2025 low

Sonders’ May 12 thread captures the institutional reaction function on the CPI print: 2Y Treasury yield at its highest since June, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index “still on a tear,” equal-weight S&P 500 relative to cap-weight rapidly approaching the November 2025 low (breadth flashing red even as headlines hold), and core PCE likely “to see more heat from software vs core CPI” given different weightings. She also flags less than 10% of S&P 500 stocks at 52-week highs, NFIB Small Business Optimism at 95.9 with “share of owners expecting better business conditions” at its lowest since October 2024, and large-cap ETFs took the biggest inflows last week vs the largest outflows in small-caps.

NY Fed Liberty Street — AI Supply Chain Research 3rd global supply shock in six years

NY Fed’s Liberty Street Economics published “Will Mounting Supply Chain Strains Hamstring the AI Investment Boom?” on May 11, framing the current Middle East conflict as “the third [global supply shock] in six years following the pandemic in 2020 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.” The post zeroes in on Asian supply chains — “especially from middle- to lower-middle income countries in southeast Asia, which are key suppliers for goods needed for the AI infrastructure build-out in the U.S.” — and notes these same countries are “heavily reliant on Middle East energy imports.” The most prominent official-Fed acknowledgement that the AI capex cycle is now hostage to Hormuz.

Lisa Abramowicz — Bloomberg (cross-asset stress) AI capex $1.1T 2027 > defense

Abramowicz’s overnight thread builds the cross-asset stress map: the “Liz Truss moment” of 2022 has hardened into UK political reality (30y gilts 1998 high, sterling weak); BofA Institute data shows April wage growth at 6% YoY for high-income households vs just 1.5% for low-income; Morgan Stanley’s hyperscaler-capex forecast is $800B for 2026 and $1.1T for 2027 (3.3% of GDP — exceeds projected national defense spending); just five companies (GOOGL, NVDA, AMZN, AVGO, AAPL) accounted for half of the S&P 500’s growth since April; 10y breakeven inflation expectations 2.5% (highest since 2023).

Jonathan Krinsky — BTIG (CNBC Closing Bell) “Swift revision lower in semi-AI trade”

BTIG’s chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky’s Monday Closing Bell hit remains THE bear-side technical tactical call into Wednesday’s open, and Tuesday’s tape did not refute it — SPX only −0.16% on a hot CPI, but RUT −2.34% and the cap-weighted/equal-weighted spread continued widening. Krinsky’s setup: semi-AI complex (now a record 17.4% of S&P market cap per Gordon/Weisenthal) is set up for a “swift revision lower” as breadth divergences widen against the headline print. His 200-dma reference remains ~6,580 vs Tuesday’s 7,400.96 close — largest 200-dma gap of this cycle. NVDA +2% / MU +6% in Wednesday pre-market on the Huang Trump-China headline is exactly the kind of rip that tests his call — does the marginal semi buyer materialize, or does the rip fade by 11 AM?

Mark Newton — Fundstrat Samsung+SK Hynix >50% EWY = forced rebalance

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton delivered the sharpest post-CPI tactical note Tuesday evening — flagging that Samsung and SK Hynix have exceeded 50% of the iShares South Korea ETF $EWY, which forces a US Diversification-rule rebalancing by end of month. “Similar to today, South Korea’s weakness very well could metastasize to US Semis and ripple across Memory/Semis near-term.” Newton expects “a bounce attempt into end of week/early next” to “satisfy wave counts/DeMark on SMH,” but Tuesday’s selling volume in semis/memory/optical was the highest since early April, and the 1-month risk/reward is now “sub-par.”

All Star Charts — Strazza / J.C. Parets CSCO breaks 2000 peak ahead of earnings

All Star Charts hammered the dot-com-redux narrative Tuesday with a note that “after rallying 7,800% from 1994-2000, $CSCO is just now breaking out above its 2000 peak” heading into Wednesday’s earnings — a 26-year base completion that Strazza is using as Exhibit A for his software-comeback thesis. Strazza’s Tuesday Morning Show and “Open Bar” segments kept the tape framework constructive — index has now closed higher six consecutive weeks, breadth selectively widening into networking/regional banks, and JC Parets continues to push back against 1999-2000 comparisons even as he posted that NVDA is “larger than the entire stock market of every country except Japan and China.”

Andrew Thrasher — Thrasher Analytics A-D divergence since April 20

Two-time Dow Award winner Andrew Thrasher posted the cleanest breadth-divergence call of the week Tuesday morning: “As more stocks decline than advance, the 5-, 21- and cumulative Advance-Decline Lines have all been diverging away from the uptrend in the S&P 500 since April 20th.” This sits on top of his Sunday flag that the Nasdaq 100 is more than 14% above its 10-week MA — a stretch only matched in Mar ‘00, Nov ‘99, Nov ‘98, Nov ‘01, Nov ‘22, Jan ‘92, Feb ‘91 (only ‘91/‘98/‘99 avoided a negative response). His VIX “Tsunami Alert” framework remains live. Tuesday’s tape validated the divergence in real time.

Walter Deemer — Deemer Technical Research US 30Y 5.03% — 8bps from 19-yr high

The dean of market technicians used Tuesday evening to amplify the under-the-radar story of the week: Walter Deemer retweeted Jim Bianco’s flag that the US 30-year yield closed at 5.03%, leaving it just 8 basis points from a new 19-year high. That’s the FX/rates-side companion to Deemer’s bull file from earlier in the week — Bilello’s 16% six-week SPX gain as the only top-20 analog NOT during/after a bear market, and Jason Goepfert’s grenade: this is the 4th time the SPX has hit a record high while 5% of its members fall to 52-week lows (prior: July 1929, January 1973, December 1999).

Wayne Whaley — Witter Lester 13-0 May 7-29 ON; May 15-22 historically 3-14

Wayne Whaley’s two-track quant calendar work remains the cleanest cross-current on the tape into Wednesday. The 13-0 Nasdaq May 7-29 setup remains in force — every prior year (13 since 1950) with NDX up 5%+ in the Apr 7-May 7 window produced a positive May 7-29 average gain of 3.55%. But Whaley’s Sunday May 10 follow-up: when the SPX prints a fresh 12-month high in the first week of May (which happened May 1, 5, 6 and 8 — four times), the next May 15-22 window has averaged a 0.54% LOSS with a 3-14 record across 17 prior years since 1950. Trend says lean long into late May, but the next eight sessions historically chop.

Carter Worth — Worth Charting (CNBC Fast Money) SELL AEM

The Chart Master’s Tuesday Fast Money segment delivered a fresh actionable sell call: Agnico Eagle Mines $AEM — “a high flyer over the past two years” — is now in a “bullish-to-bearish” pattern after struggling to gain footing since January. The call is significant because gold has been the carry trade of the week (with the long-bond stress backdrop Deemer just amplified) and a Carter Worth sell call on a flagship miner cuts against the consensus inflation-hedge trade post-hot CPI. Worth’s other live calls: BUY the AAPL breakout (May 7), Dow Transports trucking higher (Apr 16), SELL healthcare (Apr 23).

Cboe Daily Market Statistics — Put/Call Ratios (5/12 close) Total 0.84 / Equity 0.49 / SPX 1.21 / VIX 0.68

Cboe’s Tuesday May 12 final tape shows put-side activity ticking UP on a flat-headline-but-broad-weakness session. Total P/C rose to 0.84 from 0.74 — a 14% jump as RUT −2.34% and broad-tape selling pulled puts back into the mix. Equity P/C bounced to 0.49 from Monday’s eye-popping 0.43 (single-stock greed cooling marginally). SPX+SPXW P/C eased to 1.21 from 1.28 (institutional index hedges peeling back as systematic flows take over). VIX P/C stuck at 0.68 — still elevated, signaling “no vol coming.” The setup heading into PPI: single-stock call appetite cooled one notch, broad-tape hedge demand picked up — exactly the rotation Krinsky’s “swift revision lower” thesis would predict.

CNN Fear & Greed Index 65.54 Greed — multi-day fade beginning

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index opened Wednesday at 65.54 — still Greed, but a clear cooling from Monday’s 66.6 close and the May 6 peak near 70.4. Critically, the gauge is now 3.2 points BELOW its one-week-ago reading of 68.74 — the first multi-day fade since the April lift-off (when the index was at 40.97). The internals: Market Momentum, Stock Price Strength, Put/Call Options and Safe Haven Demand all in Extreme Greed; Market Volatility and Stock Price Breadth Neutral; Junk Bond Demand at Extreme Fear (HY-spread quirk). Four of seven sub-components in Extreme Greed at a 65 headline means the gauge is being HELD DOWN by breadth and credit even as the price-action components scream.

NAAIM + AAII Both Thu prints pending

NAAIM active-manager equity exposure printed 96.67 in the last weekly (posted Thu May 7) — a third straight reading near triple-digits (94.15, 93.79, 96.67) and well above the Q1 average of 82.00. The standard deviation of responses compressed to 43.28 from late-March’s high-60s, meaning managers are CONVERGING on the long side, not dispersing into hedged positions. AAII’s last print: Bull 38.3 / Bear 33.0 / Spread +5.3 — retail had NORMALIZED into the CPI print, neither extreme. Both next prints land tomorrow Thursday May 14 and will be the first to capture CPI/PPI reaction.

Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage Long-short gross −4.6pp / biggest de-grossing in 7 months

Goldman PB’s Tuesday note (covering the prior week): US long-short GROSS leverage fell 4.6 percentage points as the benchmark hit a record high — the biggest notional de-grossing in 7 months. Nine of 11 sectors were NET SOLD, suggesting this was NOT a narrow rotation but a wider risk-off adjustment. The biggest pullback was in single stocks. GTA (Goldman Trading Aggregate) falling for the first time in 13 weeks. As of late March 2026, gross leverage hit 292.8% and stood near record-highs through Q1 — this is meaningful unwind off a high base. Implication: HF positioning has gone from “soft-landing all-in” to “selling into strength” RIGHT as CPI prints hot and the 30Y auction looms.

JPMorgan Position Intelligence CTAs “early 2022” positioning

JPM’s Position Intelligence cross-asset desk flags two extremes worth pairing with Goldman’s de-grossing read: (1) Among CTAs, RELATIVE positioning EU vs US equity at its highest since H1 2023 — a configuration that “resembles early 2022 when US equities declined faster than EU”; (2) CTA NET RISK in US equities has returned to levels not seen since October 2023. The desk frames 2026’s style positioning as resembling 2025 — “new extremes in crowding, record concentration and a ‘winner-takes-all’ dynamic.” The CTA cohort is positioned for an SPX/NDX leg HIGHER while the discretionary/HF cohort is selling — classic late-cycle divergence.

Apollo — Torsten Slok pivot (Tue→Wed) Credit OK / Sovereign debt NOT OK

Slok’s Tuesday spark “In Credit Markets, Things Are Getting Better, Not Worse” remains the constructive bookend to today’s bearish sovereign-debt piece. Default rates falling, distressed exchanges declining, LME count declining — “the economy is strong and there are no signs of a full-blown credit cycle.” The Wed/Tue 1-2 sequence frames Apollo’s split book: BUY credit, AVOID duration. For a Cannon Trading customer running ES + ZN, that argues for staying long earnings/credit-sensitive equities while shorting or staying flat the 30Y into auction risk + sticky-inflation prints.

Liz Ann Sonders / Kevin Gordon — Charles Schwab EQ-weight approaching Nov 2025 low

Sonders’ post-CPI feed yesterday confirmed all four miss vectors: April y/y CPI +3.8% vs +3.7% est and +3.3% prior; core CPI +2.8% vs +2.7% est and +2.6% prior; m/m headline +0.6% (in-line) but core +0.4% vs +0.3% est. Kevin Gordon (her co-strategist) flagged the equal-weight S&P 500 relative to cap-weight “quickly approaching that November 2025 low” — translation: market-cap concentration is still grinding wider, NOT broadening. Gordon also flagged 2Y Treasury yield highest since last June and that core PCE will likely show MORE heat from software than core CPI given different weightings. Less than 10% of S&P 500 stocks trade at 52-week highs — internals are NOT confirming the index print.

Cathie Wood — ARK Invest Inflation surprises LOW (AI deflation)

Wood’s May 9 thesis published Friday is the LOUDEST disinflation contra-Bilello/Hartnett bull call on the tape and now reads as a tape-bet AGAINST yesterday’s hot CPI: “the bond market may be beginning to discount something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of artificial intelligence and technologically enabled productivity gains across the economy. The cost to train AI models is falling dramatically. Inference costs are collapsing even more rapidly… We believe inflation is likely to surprise on the low side over the next 6–9 months.” For a 0DTE/short-dated ES book on a PPI morning, Wood is the sizeable dissenting voice arguing the inflation print is noise around a structurally disinflationary AI bend.

Tom Lee — Fundstrat Sohn lunch speaker today

Lee is at the Sohn Foundation Conference at Jazz at Lincoln Center today (Wed May 13) as lunch speaker — a tape catalyst as soundbites usually hit CNBC during/after. Most recent framework (May 6 CNBC Closing Bell): the stocks driving the SPX are selling something SCARCE — compute (NVDA, INTC, AMD), AI hardware (MU, SNDK), energy infrastructure (GEV), and services where demand exceeds supply (MAGS). “So to us, stocks are rising for the right reasons.” Bitmine angle (he is now Chairman of BitMine, BMNR): ETH supply has been “disinflationary” since June 2025 with BitMine acquiring >4.3% of supply; staking revenue annualized $319M as of May 10.

GammaRoad — Jordan Rizzuto 2 of 3 systematic factors NEGATIVE

GammaRoad’s systematic model is flashing 2 of 3 economic factors NEGATIVE and only price direction bullish — a configuration Rizzuto says historically signals “a major inflection point and a significant change in market conditions.” The MarketVector-GammaRoad U.S. Equity Strategy Index dynamically rebalances between SPX and T-Bills, scaling to 125% gross when ALL signals turn favorable and to 100% T-Bills when conditions weaken. Translation: GammaRoad-style systematic risk-managed beta funds are currently de-risking even as price marches higher — a flow-of-funds drag on dips. Pair with Goldman PB May-12 data (long-short gross leverage −4.6 pp last week) — systematic and discretionary HF cohorts are RUNNING THE SAME PLAY: selling strength.

Sam Stovall — CFRA Research 7,400 target already breached

Stovall’s near-term message lines up with the Apollo “higher for longer” frame but with a constructive 12-month framing: SPX YE 2026 target 7,400 (already hit Monday at 7,412.84 — needs revision higher), 2026 EPS growth +13.5%. Most recent commentary: “Before a continuation of the current bull market run, the S&P 500 may need to take some time to catch its breath” — citing overbought technicals. He treats any dip as a “buy the dip” opportunity to resume the run. Sector overweights: financials (lower rates), communication services (digital ad + midterm election), tech (AI infra capex + EPS growth).

Wolfe Research — Chris Senyek Only ~20% SPX growing rev 10%+ in 2026

Wolfe Research’s 2026 sector strategy stays with Technology, Communication Services, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary as top picks. Senyek’s structural point — “secular growth remains relatively scarce with only ~20% of S&P 500 companies expected to grow 2026 revenues 10%+, and >80% of those firms sit within Technology and Communication Services” — explains the post-CPI relative-vs-absolute split: tech/comm-svc beats every sector even when rates rise, because the EPS denominator carries the multiple. Wolfe’s macro team (Stephanie Roth) flagged in April that the April CPI print “may be quite ugly” — that call now fully validated. House view: still expects 3 Fed cuts in 2026.

Reuters Morning Bid — Mike Dolan “G7 long-bond stress intensifies”

Dolan’s twin Wednesday columns frame the day for institutional desks. “Fed alert” (3:32 AM ET) telescopes the post-CPI Fed-credibility crisis with Warsh Chair-confirmation looming Friday — same week as Powell’s term-end. “G7 long bond stress intensifies” (2:00 AM ET) is the more actionable: Germany’s 30-year Bund yield at highest since 2011, Japan 10Y JGB at multi-year high, US 30Y Treasury yield touched highest since September. Today’s $25B 30Y auction at 13:00 ET sits directly inside this G7 long-duration crack. Dolan’s third Wed piece (“The 4% problem”) directly references G7 long-bond stress as recommended reading.

CNBC Daily Open — “Wall Street meets its old nemesis: Inflation” Fed HIKE odds ~30%

Hui Jie’s Wednesday note headlines “Wall Street meets its old nemesis: Inflation.” Top lines: April CPI +3.8% highest since May 2023; core +2.8% highest since January 2025 still above Fed 2% target; Fed RATE-HIKE odds for year-end up to ~30% per CME FedWatch with 4.5% chance of a 50bp hike. Federal appeals court gave Trump admin a 10-day reprieve allowing 10% global tariffs to remain. Tape close Tue: SPX −0.16%, Nasdaq −0.71%, Dow +0.11%. eBay rejected GameStop’s $56B takeover proposal (“neither credible nor attractive”). Trump-Xi summit Thursday agenda: Taiwan arms sales, jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai, rare earth exports, Iran.

Axios Markets — Emily Peck 1B-barrel Hormuz disruption

Peck’s Tuesday Axios Markets has the most important non-CPI piece in print: a Morgan Stanley note quantifying the Hormuz-shutdown oil math. World near loss of 1 BILLION barrels of Middle East crude — 12.3 mbpd decline from seven countries, “largest oil supply disruption in the history of the oil market.” Yet Brent is “only” +40% to ~$100 vs 2022’s $140 (when Russia disruption was far smaller). Why: US has UPPED exports by ~3.8 mbpd while China has CUT imports by ~5.5 mbpd — together absorbing 2/3 of the daily shortfall. Goldman’s Hatzius cut US recession-next-month odds to 25% (from 30%) on this dynamic. The cleanest 4-week scenario: longer prices stay muted = less White House pressure to deal = Iran drags it out = prices spike LATER.

Benzinga / Polymarket Cross-Read 83% SPX opens higher Wed

Benzinga’s Wednesday pre-market wrap synthesizes the prediction-market read with the wire: Polymarket May 13 SPX-open contract pricing 83% probability the index OPENS HIGHER Wednesday, even after Tue’s −0.16% close at 7,400.96. WTI and Brent ticking modestly lower in pre-market (after Tue’s +4.19% / +3.42% Iran-ceasefire spike). ES futures +0.1% pre-market ahead of PPI. Earnings on Wed deck: CSCO, BIRK, BABA. Yesterday’s May 12 Polymarket contract resolved “Down” (SPX opened 7,390.63 vs Mon close 7,412.84, contract traded ~$137k notional).

FT FirstFT Americas Trump-Xi state visit May 13-15

FT FirstFT Americas Wednesday cover focuses on Trump’s state visit to China May 13-15 (his second state visit, first of his second presidency). FT framing: Trump’s stated goal is to “rebalance the relationship with China and prioritize reciprocity and fairness.” Tradeable items: bilateral trade-management board (new structure), industry agreements spanning aerospace/agriculture/energy, Iran (China is Iran’s largest sanctioned-oil buyer — Trump expects “a long talk”), Taiwan arms sales (Trump broke with the Six Assurances on May 11), Jimmy Lai. CEO entourage: Huang (last-minute add, KEY CATALYST), Musk, Cook, Fink, Boeing’s Ortberg, Solomon, Mehrotra, Amon.

FinancialJuice — US Session Prep PPI / 30Y auction / Warsh confirm

FinancialJuice live feed at sweep showed the standard pre-PPI checklist running: ES +0.2% / NDX +0.8% / NVDA +2% / MU +6% on Huang-China-trip headlines; Brent / WTI bid down ~1% overnight; Gilt 30y at 2008-era highs with UK political stress; Germany Bund 30y at 2011-era highs; JGB 10y at 2.545% (1997 high). The Voice News audio feed emphasized the $25B 30Y auction at 1pm + Trump-Xi Thursday agenda + Warsh Chair confirmation as the three “scheduled” Wed catalysts beyond PPI.

This-Week Earnings + Data Stack Densest 72-hour catalyst stack of Q2

Wed remaining: PPI 8:30 ET + EIA petroleum 10:30 ET + $25B 30Y auction 13:00 ET + BABA BMO / CSCO AMC. Thu May 14: Retail Sales 8:30 ET (key consumer read), Industrial Production 9:15 ET, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, AAII + NAAIM prints, AMAT AMC (options ±8.7%), Canada Goose BMO, plus Trump-Xi Day 1. Fri May 16: UMich Prelim May (inflation expectations the focus given CPI heat), Housing Starts, POWELL TERM ENDS. Mon May 19: Home Depot. Thu May 21: WMT FY27 Q1 (confirmed). NVDA reports in the May 28 week. The Wed-Fri compression is the densest 72-hour catalyst stack of Q2.

Nick Timiraos — WSJ Chief Economics “Tough inheritance for a new Fed chair”

The Fed Whisperer’s reaction to Tuesday’s hot CPI print landed with the cleanest one-liner of the morning: April CPI “won’t change minds at the Fed” but it will “complicate the dovish case, which has already flipped away from arguing for cuts and towards arguing against toying with hikes.” Timiraos framed it explicitly as “a tough inheritance for a new Fed chair picked by a president expecting cuts” — a direct signal that the WSJ pipeline is now reporting a Fed that may not cut at all in 2026, even with Warsh seated by Friday. With CME FedWatch now pricing a 30% probability of a HIKE by year-end and only ~5bp of cuts priced, the Timiraos read is the single most important macro-information edge into PPI today.

John Kemp — @JKempEnergy Diesel $5.64/gal 88th-percentile / distillate 2-decade low

Kemp continues to be the cleanest energy-data tape into the open: US pump diesel has averaged $5.64/gal in May (88th percentile for any month this century, up from $3.54 / 32nd percentile in January), refined-product stocks are at a two-decade seasonal low after a 45M-barrel draw since the Iran war started in February, and US refining margins have more than doubled YTD. Hedge funds are accumulating “small but growing” bearish short positions anticipating the Strait re-opening, but Kemp also flags California as the most-exposed US market (~30% Middle East crude imports). The UAE’s “secret attack on Iran risks drawing Gulf states into the war” — a tail-risk angle the energy desk is not pricing.

ZeroHedge — Newsquawk wrap + War/inflation linkage “Truth first casualty / currency second”

ZeroHedge’s overnight lede frames the inflation-war linkage explicitly: “Truth Is The First Casualty Of War; The Currency Is The Second.” The Newsquawk US Market Wrap recaps Tuesday: hot CPI, Goolsbee “remains concerned on services inflation,” another 53.3M barrels from the SPR, Iran “five preconditions” plus the 90% enrichment threat from parliament, Saudi unpublicised retaliatory strikes on Iran during the war, UK Starmer-no-timetable, “average” 10y auction, negative QCOM commentary. ZeroHedge has stayed on the Hormuz tape continuously and is the most-circulated bear-side macro narrative on the screen ahead of PPI.

Anthony Pompliano “Crazy Uncle portfolio” reframed

Pomp’s post-CPI thread distills the bull-case-for-hard-assets to its most pointed: “Inflation brings higher cost of living and higher asset prices. This means investors get richer while everyone else falls behind.” He explicitly flags the midterm-election clock — “the current administration will have to figure out how to destroy the short-term inflationary pressures within the next 90 days” — and pivots to the “Crazy Uncle portfolio” (Bitcoin, gold, real estate, commodities). A separate retweet from Phil Rosen tags Micron $MU at +1,000% over the past year — “steeper than Cisco during the dot-com bubble” (Cisco +786% 1998-2001 before collapsing) — corroborating the SOX-concentration tape Kobeissi has been flagging.

Walter Bloomberg — @DeItaone Air Force One to Beijing

The principal real-time desk wire is alternating between three live tapes: (1) The Trump-Xi Air Force One delegation — TSLA −2.6% on the Musk-aboard-AF1 confirmation, NVDA +2% pre-market after Huang surprise-boarded; (2) Iran preconditions for round-2 talks (“90% enrichment” threat from Iranian parliament spokesman) plus the Saudi-Aramco unreported retaliatory strikes; (3) UK PM Starmer telling cabinet he will NOT set a departure timetable (Gilt-vol catalyst). Newsquawk overnight wrap tagged “Negative commentary on QCOM” and another 53.3M barrels released from the SPR. The relay’s value pre-cash today is the headline density bracketing the 8:30 PPI release.

Lisa Abramowicz — Bloomberg PIMCO: AI capex + Iran = persistent

Abramowicz’s overnight thread builds the cross-asset stress map: UK Gilts 30y 1998 high; BofA Institute data shows April wage growth at 6% YoY for high-income households vs just 1.5% for low-income; Morgan Stanley’s hyperscaler-capex forecast is $800B for 2026 and $1.1T for 2027 (3.3% of GDP — exceeds projected national defense spending); just five companies (GOOGL, NVDA, AMZN, AVGO, AAPL) accounted for half of the S&P 500’s growth since April; 10y breakeven inflation expectations 2.5% (highest since 2023). The PIMCO note she circulated frames CPI-vs-PCE divergence as AI-infrastructure plus Iran energy = persistent.

BLS — April PPI release (TODAY 8:30 ET) Cons +0.5% m/m HD / +0.4% core / 4.8% y/y / 4.3% core

April PPI prints at 8:30 AM ET — consensus +0.5% m/m headline / +0.4% m/m core (coordinator brief) and headline y/y projected at 4.8% vs 4.0% prior, core y/y projected at 4.3% vs 3.6% prior (El-Erian framing). March PPI showed headline +0.5% m/m / +4.0% y/y — the largest 12-month advance since +4.7% in February 2023 — with final-demand goods +1.6% m/m driven by an 8.5% surge in final-demand energy and a 15.7% rise in gasoline prices. With CPI hot Tuesday and Hormuz pass-through still flowing, an in-line or hot PPI confirms the inflation-tail and slams the door on June cuts; a meaningful miss reopens the cut path and gives Warsh’s incoming chair tenure a softer landing.

Atlanta Fed — GDPNow Q2 2026 3.7% (next update Thu)

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP growth stands at 3.7% (SAAR) as of May 8 — unchanged for a third consecutive update — with the next release scheduled for Thursday May 14. Subcomponent stack still skewed positive: solid nonresidential fixed investment, neutral consumer spending, slight government drag. This is the macro anchor for the Goldilocks frame that Yardeni/RBC/Wilson have built their 7,650-8,250 target stack against, and it cleanly contradicts the Conference Board / CFNAI weakening backdrop the bears are working from. Tomorrow’s update will pull in retail sales (Thu 8:30 ET) — a single number that could move the GDPNow print meaningfully.

Chicago Fed — CFNAI March −0.20 / MA3 −0.03

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to −0.20 in March from +0.03 in February — three of the four broad categories slipped, with production-related indicators (−0.20 contribution, down from +0.13) the biggest drag. Three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) at −0.03, still above the −0.70 recession-signal threshold but signalling clearly below-trend growth. The CFNAI Diffusion Index ticked up to −0.04, with only 34 of 85 indicators contributing positively. This sub-trend reading sits directly underneath the Atlanta Fed’s 3.7% GDPNow Q2 print — a tension on the macro inputs the strategist desk will need to resolve.

NFIB — April Small Business Optimism 95.9 / better-conditions 4%

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April printed at 95.9 — a fractional miss vs the 96.1 consensus and just above the March 95.8. The most important sub-detail: the share of owners expecting better business conditions fell to 4%, the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest since October 2024. Single most-cited problem remains Quality of Labor, followed by Taxes. The release confirms a structurally below-average small-business backdrop even as large-cap profits sit at record highs — the bifurcation Apollo’s Slok and NY Fed’s Liberty Street pieces both quantify.

University of Michigan — Final April / Prelim May Friday 49.8 final / May prelim Fri

The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April was revised to 49.8 from the preliminary 47.6 — still the weakest reading on the post-1978 series. One-year inflation expectations 4.7%, five-year at 3.5%. The May preliminary releases Friday May 16 and will be the first read on whether the post-April-30 SPX record-print rally has lifted household sentiment alongside the brokerage statements. With small-business optimism stuck at 95.9 and large-cap profits at record highs, the UMich household read is the K-shape canary the strategist desk will be watching most carefully on Friday.

NY Fed — Survey of Consumer Expectations Gas-expectation 9.4%

The NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations has median one-year inflation expectations elevated at 3.4%, three-year at 3.1%, and gas-price expectations at 9.4% (highest since March 2022) on the Iran/Hormuz energy spike. Food expectations at 6.0%, rent at 7.1%. The SCE pre-conditions the CPI/PPI tape on how anchored consumer inflation expectations actually are under the energy shock — and the answer, today, is “less anchored than the FOMC would like.” This is the household-level corroborant to the Cleveland Fed Nowcast’s hot-headline call.

Senate Floor — Warsh Fed CHAIR Vote TODAY Governor confirmed Tue 51-45

The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to a 14-year term as Fed governor Tuesday evening — Fetterman (D-PA) the only Democrat to cross — with the SEPARATE chair-confirmation vote scheduled for Wednesday today. Powell’s chair term expires Friday May 15, making this the tightest chair-handoff runway in the institution’s history. The most partisan Fed-chair confirmation ever lands directly into a tape that just printed 3.8% CPI / 2.8% core and is pricing Fed HIKE odds at 31% — meaning Warsh’s first signal as chair carries asymmetric cross-asset risk. CNBC framing tags Warsh as “the first tech-bro Fed chair” with Thiel and Andreessen in his social orbit.

Austan Goolsbee — Chicago Fed (post-CPI take) “Concerned on services inflation”

Goolsbee — historically the most dovish FOMC voice — delivered a measurably hawkish-leaning post-CPI message at the Greater Rockford Chamber Tuesday afternoon: he “remains concerned on services inflation” (Newsquawk wrap). For the FOMC’s most consistent dove to flag services-side stickiness one day before the chair handoff is itself the cleanest data-point on internal Fed positioning. With the FedWatch HIKE probability jumping to 31% during the day, Goolsbee’s tape is the corroborating soft-dissent signal: if even Goolsbee is publicly worried about services, the median FOMC voter is far further from cutting than the strategist desk was modelling on Monday. Pairs with Timiraos’ framing that the dovish case has flipped from “arguing for cuts” to “arguing against toying with hikes.”

Christopher Waller — Hoover Institution May 8 monetary policy speech

Governor Waller — the FOMC’s loudest cut-camp voice and a leading candidate for the chair role until Warsh emerged — delivered the most-recent dovish-leaning Fed speech on May 8 at Hoover. The companion speech from Vice Chair Bowman (“When Regulation Reshapes Markets”) and Governor Cook’s Dakar tokenization remarks rounded out the week’s tape. Waller’s prior April 17 Auburn speech (“One Transitory Shock After Another”) remains the cleanest dovish-camp framing piece — explicitly arguing the tariff + oil + Hormuz inflation impulses are sequential supply shocks that should be looked through. With Warsh now seated as governor and likely chair today, the Waller-vs-Warsh internal positioning question becomes the cleanest macro setup for the June FOMC.

Cleveland Fed — Inflation Nowcasting April nowcast 3.56% UNDERSHOT 3.8% actual

The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model pinned April CPI at +0.45% m/m / +3.56% y/y headline heading into Tuesday’s release — and the BLS print actually came in HIGHER at 3.8% y/y / 2.8% core (the largest 2026 model-vs-actual undershoot). The preliminary May 2026 nowcast remains elevated, signalling the path-of-least-resistance on inflation through summer is still HIGHER before the Hormuz energy pass-through fades. The model uses daily Brent crude prices and weekly retail gasoline as primary signal inputs — both still elevated this week. This is the cleanest data-side challenge to the Warsh-dovish-from-day-one trade.

NY Fed — Liberty Street Economics Tue student-loan + Mon AI-supply piece

Liberty Street published two fresh research pieces relevant to today’s tape: (1) Tuesday May 12 — “Federal Student Loan Defaults Return After Pandemic Pause” flags share of student-loan balances past due now over 10% (pre-pandemic levels); average defaulter is ~40 years old, more likely in the South, more likely past due on other debt. (2) Monday May 11 — “Will Mounting Supply Chain Strains Hamstring the AI Investment Boom?” examines southeast Asian supply chains for AI infrastructure heavily reliant on Middle East energy imports — the third supply shock in six years. Pairs with the May 8 NBFI stress piece.

FEDS Notes — Board Staff Working Papers May 8 batch (trade finance, renters, MMFs, BHPH)

The Federal Reserve Board’s FEDS Notes pipeline dumped FOUR working papers on May 8 — the largest single-day publish in the past three months: trade-finance market is highly concentrated in large banks and declining over time; quantifying the 28% of adults who rent; fragility of corporate-bond MF liquidity provision; subprime Buy-Here-Pay-Here auto lending. The April 2 “Labor force growth, breakeven employment, and potential GDP growth” note (Murray/Vidangos) remains the most-cited macro reference frame on the desk — flags near-zero labor-force growth as the new breakeven baseline.