S&P 500 futures are up about 0.5% after Friday's 1.8% drop, but the cash index would still open roughly 437 points under the dealer flip, with Apple and Palantir reporting tonight and midterm voting tomorrow

The 90-Second Read

1. Friday broke the index The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.09% to 51,770.31, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.86% to 25,437.00 and the Russell 2000 fell 1.66% to 2,811.84. The S&P 500 now sits 3.1% under its record close of 7,818.93 on October 6, and volatility closed at 19.42.
2. Futures bounce, modestly ES Dec read 7,652.00 at 5:55 AM, up 38.00 points from Friday's 7,614.00 settle, and NQ Dec read 28,756.75, up 0.78% from 28,534.00. Russell futures are up 0.71%, in line with the large-cap contracts rather than lagging them.
3. Chips were the damage The semiconductor ETF SMH lost 6.98% on Friday and is up 1.56% in early trading. Intel fell 28.58% after guiding fourth-quarter revenue to $15.0 billion–$16.0 billion and non-GAAP gross margin to 38.0%, down from 44.1% in the third quarter, while its finance chief said the PC slowdown should last through the first half of next year. AMD fell 10.88% and Nvidia 4.22%.
4. Crude gives back ground December WTI read 99.55, down 4.39% from Friday's 104.12 settle, and January Brent read 108.47, down 4.37%. Gold read 3,907.5, up 0.22% from a 3,898.90 settle that was itself down 3.42% on Friday.
5. Yields eased into the weekend The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.94%, down 4 basis points, the 2-year at 4.56%, down 5, and the 30-year at 5.31%, down 1. Net liquidity is the drag in the background, with the Fed's balance-sheet math draining for a second straight week.
6. A heavy event week Apple and Palantir report after the close today, AMD, Amgen and Arista follow Tuesday, and the October payrolls report lands Friday. The midterm elections are Tuesday and the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement is Wednesday.
7. Levels into the open ES sits 23 points above Cannon's pivot at 7,629.33, with first resistance at 7,700.42 and first support at 7,545.67. The 30-day low is 7,558.25.

The Scoreboard

Rows with a clock time are live reads at that time; index, Treasury and single-name rows are Friday's closes, and the futures sub-lines carry Friday's settlements.

Sentiment & Flow Gauges

Flow Read

Friday's volume skewed to sellers, yet new highs still outnumbered new lows and the share of members above their 200-day average sits in the middle of its range, which reads as concentrated damage in the AI names rather than a washout across the index. Over the four weeks to Wednesday the S&P 500 gained 1.2% while net liquidity fell $18B. With the cash index so far under the flip, the first hour tests whether dealer hedging amplifies the overnight bounce or fades it.

Calendar & Scenario Map

Consensus and prior figures are left blank where they could not be confirmed at the releasing agency. Next Tuesday brings the October consumer price index. The three refunding auctions follow the week after the announcement.

Levels & Structure

Cannon's daily pivot for ES Dec is 7,629.33, with resistance at 7,700.42, 7,784.08 and 7,855.17 and support at 7,545.67, 7,474.58 and 7,390.92. The contract's 30-day range runs from 7,558.25 to 7,897.5, which is also its 52-week high, and Cannon's short-term trend arrow for ES points down.

Cannon Daily Levels · November 2

Cannon Edge · November 2

The November 20 SPX options chain, on a window running from 7,365 to 7,800, shows its largest call open interest above the market at 7,700, with 20,842 contracts, followed by 7,800 with 13,955 and 7,750 with 9,783. The 7,800 strike sits on the window's upper edge, so the call structure is a shelf running up toward that number rather than a single peak. Below the market the largest put open interest is at 7,500 with 44,070 contracts, ahead of 7,400 with 24,175, and open interest fades to 661 contracts at the lower edge, so the put peak is a genuine one. The 7,700 strike also carries 23,628 puts that are now in the money against its 20,842 calls, which makes it one of the most heavily traded strikes on the board. In today's expiring ES weekly options, on a window running from 7,425 to 7,860, call open interest above the market peaks at 7,850 with 5,329 contracts, just ahead of 7,660 with 5,112, while puts below the market peak at 7,500 with 2,969, followed by 7,600 with 1,522. The all-expiry walls at 7,700 and 7,500 line up exactly with the heaviest call and put strikes in the November chain, which is the clean agreement the map needs; the weekly options place today's nearest call concentration closer, at 7,660.

Concentration was not the story on Friday. The cap-weighted S&P 500 fund fell 1.77% and the fund tracking the seven largest names fell 1.75%, while the equal-weight fund fell 0.79%, less than half as much, so the equal-weight index absorbed far less of the selling than the AI-heavy top of the cap-weighted one.

Institutional Positioning

Desk Shift Tracker

Macro Pressure Map

Portfolio Positioning

Fed Watch

The committee met last week and held the target range, with two dissents in favor of a hike, and no policy meeting is scheduled this week; the minutes arrive on November 18. The Fed's own calendar lists Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on Friday at noon, but her topic is bank supervision rather than monetary policy. The week's rate input is the October payrolls report on Friday, with JOLTS on Tuesday and the refunding announcement on Wednesday setting the tone for the long end beforehand. The yield curve closed Friday with the 10-year at 4.94% and the 30-year above 5%, which keeps the hawkish case in view even as equities sell off.

What the Consensus Is Missing