S&P 500 futures are up 1.02% after sinking to 7,490.00 overnight, Democrats are projected to take both chambers of Congress, and gold is up 2.89% as the dollar slips

The 90-Second Read

1. A dive, then a reversal ES Dec traded as low as 7,490.00 overnight, 106.75 points or 1.41% under Tuesday's 7,596.75 settle, then climbed 184.50 points off that low to 7,674.50 at 5:57 AM, up 77.75 points or 1.02%. Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.96% and Dow futures up 1.47%.
2. The midterm outcome is in Democrats have been projected to win both the House and the Senate, ending unified Republican control and setting up divided government. The first market read was a sell-off on fear that a Democratic Congress would tighten rules around AI data-center buildout; the tape has since turned the other way.
3. Tuesday was a narrow gain The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83% to 25,372.01, while the Dow slipped 0.38% to 51,786.72 and the Russell 2000 added 0.23% to 2,812.45. The S&P 500 still sits 3.2% under its record close of 7,818.93 on October 6, and volatility closed at 20.83.
4. Chips lead, and AMD adds to it The semiconductor ETFs SMH and SOXX gained 2.01% and 2.50% on Tuesday, to 518.52 and 465.00. AMD reported after the close, beat estimates and guided the fourth quarter above expectations, and trades 6.05% higher at 513.20 before the bell; Super Micro is up 8.60% at 34.09 and Nvidia up 1.32% at 209.42. Palantir is down 2.58% at 170.87.
5. Metals jump, the dollar slips Gold Dec is up 2.89% at 4,054.40 and silver up 4.68% at 52.08, while the dollar index reads 101.42, down 0.44%. WTI Dec is down 0.81% at 95.31 and Brent is down 1.31% at 102.24 as U.S.–Iran diplomacy stays in focus.
6. Yields rose into the election The 10-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday at 4.95%, up 4 basis points, the 2-year at 4.61%, up 2, and the 30-year at 5.32%, up 4. The Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement lands at 8:30 AM.
7. Levels into the open ES sits 86.92 points over Cannon's pivot at 7,587.58 and 9.17 over second resistance at 7,665.33, with third resistance at 7,706.92 and first support at 7,551.42.

The Scoreboard

Rows with a clock time are reads at that time against Tuesday's settlement or close; index and Treasury rows are Tuesday's closes.

Sentiment & Flow Gauges

Flow Read

Tuesday's advance came from the heavy weights rather than the average stock: decliners outnumbered advancers 313 to 184 and down volume exceeded up volume, so the index rose while most members fell. That narrow footing is the backdrop for a 1% futures gain that arrives mostly on a single overnight reversal. With the cash index nearly 500 points under the flip, the open tests whether dealer hedging extends the move or absorbs it.

Calendar & Scenario Map

Consensus and prior figures are shown where the calendar carries them.

Levels & Structure

Cannon's daily pivot for ES Dec is 7,587.58, with resistance at 7,629.17, 7,665.33 and 7,706.92 and support at 7,551.42, 7,509.83 and 7,473.67. The contract's 30-day range runs from 7,546.00 to 7,897.5, and last night's 7,490.00 low undercut it before the contract climbed back. Cannon's short-term trend arrow for ES points down.

Cannon Daily Levels · November 4

Cannon Edge · November 4

The November 20 SPX options chain, on a window running from 7,350 to 7,785, shows its largest call open interest above the market at 7,700, with 37,816 contracts, followed by 7,750 with 10,600 and 7,650 with 7,993, and open interest fades to 216 at the upper edge, so the call peak is a genuine one inside the window. Below the market the largest put open interest is at 7,500 with 42,195 contracts, ahead of 7,400 with 23,425 and 7,475 with 12,470, though open interest picks back up to 11,596 at the 7,350 edge, so the downside is better read as a shelf running below the window than a closed peak. The 7,600 strike carries 20,631 puts that are now in the money, and 7,700 carries 23,134 puts against its 37,816 calls, which makes those two of the most heavily traded strikes on the board. In today's expiring ES weekly options, on a window running from 7,360 to 7,795, call open interest above the market peaks at 7,700 with 2,339 contracts, with a larger shelf of 2,078 at 7,800 just beyond the window edge, while puts below the market peak at 7,500 with 2,418, followed closely by 7,450 with 2,350. Those strikes were read when ES traded near 7,576, so with the contract now near 7,675 the 7,700 weekly call strike is only about 25 points overhead. The all-expiry walls at 7,700 and 7,500 line up exactly with the heaviest call and put strikes in the November chain, and the weekly options agree on both.

Tuesday's gain was not an equal-weight story. The cap-weighted S&P 500 fund rose 0.30% and the fund tracking the seven largest names rose 0.81%, while the equal-weight fund fell 0.33%, so the index's biggest weights did the lifting while the average member slipped.

Institutional Positioning

No strategist had published a post-election call by this writing, and the standing stances in the tracker below were all set before the result. The first desk reactions are worth watching against a tape that has already reversed from a 1.41% overnight drop to a 1.02% gain, because several of the standing views hinge on exactly this event.

Desk Shift Tracker

Macro Pressure Map

Portfolio Positioning

Fed Watch

No policy meeting is scheduled this week. The Fed's calendar lists Cleveland Fed President Hammack on Thursday morning and St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Governor Bowman on Friday, around the October employment report, for which the consensus is 55K jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate. The Treasury's refunding announcement at 8:30 AM sets the tone for the long end today. Tuesday's yield curve closed with the 10-year at 4.95% and the 30-year at 5.32%, and gold's jump alongside a lower dollar suggests rates are not the only story driving the overnight tape.

What the Consensus Is Missing