Dealers are still long gamma with the index more than 100 points above the flip, an equity-strategy desk is split on whether banks or inflation matters more, and SpaceX's confirmed spectrum purchase keeps reshaping the telecom trade.
| Instrument | Level | Change | Session |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500Record close 7,818.93 on Oct 6; intraday high 7,844.52 | 7,811.54 | +0.59% | Fri close |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,366.17 | +0.64% | Fri close |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 51,654.95 | +0.83% | Fri close |
| Russell 2000 | 2,806.98 | +0.46% | Fri close |
| ES Dec 26Friday settle 7,859.75 | 7,866.50 | +0.09% | Live vs settle |
| NQ Dec 26Settle 31,108.75 | 31,082 | −0.09% | Live vs settle |
| YM Dec 26Settle 51,926 | 51,929 | 0.0% | Live vs settle |
| RTY Dec 26Settle 2,822.1 | 2,822.3 | 0.0% | Live vs settle |
| WTI Nov 26Friday settle 91.85 | 92.8 | +1.0% | Live vs settle |
| BrentFriday settle 104.72 · 52-week high 105.92 | 105.7 | +0.9% | Live vs settle |
| Gold Dec 26Settle 4,216.3 | 4,196 | −0.5% | Live vs settle |
| Silver Dec 26 | 60.89 | — | Live |
| Natural gas Nov | 3.14 | −2.6% | Live |
| US 10-yearTreasury daily curve · cash market closed today | 5.24% | +2bp | Fri close |
| US 2-year | 4.80% | +5bp | Fri close |
| US 30-year | 5.60% | 0bp | Fri close |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 102.35 | +0.1% | Live |
| EUR/USD | 1.1183 | −0.2% | Live |
| USD/JPY | 158.58 | +0.2% | Live |
| Bitcoin | 83,325 | −0.4% | Live |
Live prices as of about 5:45 ET. Index rows are Friday closes; futures change is against Friday's settle. Yields are Friday's cash-market closes with the change against Thursday; there is no live Treasury level today. Silver's prior-session basis could not be pinned, so no change is shown. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday; Hong Kong is up about 0.3% and Shanghai down about 0.4%, with London, Frankfurt and the Euro Stoxx 50 each up roughly 0.5% to 0.6% at the open.
| Gauge | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| VIXFriday close · prior close 15.41 | 14.84 | CALM Fell on the rally, though the live print has bounced to the mid-15s this morning |
| Fear & Greed indexLatest · one month ago 32.7 | 45 | FEAR Still a fear label, but well off last month's low-30s reading |
| AAII sentimentSurvey week ending October 7 · next release Thursday | 40.3 / 39.0 | SPLIT Bulls and bears are nearly level, with neutrals unusually scarce |
| Dealer gamma regimeFriday cash vs. close-based flip | +101.23 | POSITIVE Sixth close above the flip, with a cushion more than twice Thursday's |
| S&P 500 new highs / lows52-week · prior session | 15 / 7 | NARROW Both counts rose from a day earlier, and both remain small for an index near a record |
| S&P 500 above 200-day | 47.5% | THIN A point higher than a day earlier and still under half |
| S&P 500 up / down volume | 54% up | MIXED Down from 65% a day earlier even as the index rose more than half a percent |
| High-yield spreadICE BofA HY OAS · latest print, Oct 8 | 3.15% · −9bp w/w | STABLE Six basis points wider on the day, still below the early-October peak |
Friday's gain was a price move more than a participation move: the up-volume share slipped even as the index rose, and the share of members above their 200-day average barely changed, so the heavyweights did the lifting. With dealers long gamma and the cushion above the flip wide, the setup favors muted day-to-day ranges until a catalyst arrives, and the calendar supplies two this week. The S&P 500 is up 2.2% over the four weeks to October 7 while net liquidity fell $37 billion over the same span, a mismatch between price and funding that the latest weekly reading has only begun to repair.
| Time ET | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 12 | Columbus Day: bond market closed, stocks open · no major U.S. data | — | — |
| Tue Oct 13 | JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson report before the open · Treasury bill settlement, about $290B issued against about $253B maturing · corporate buyback window begins to reopen as the banks report | — | — |
| Wed Oct 14 | 8:30 September CPI, month over month: headline and core · Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock report · 2:00 PM Beige Book | 0.6% / 0.2% | 0.4% / 0.3% |
| Thu Oct 15 | 8:30 September PPI, retail sales (headline / ex-autos), Philadelphia Fed index and jobless claims · Treasury bill settlement, about $272B against $250B maturing · 4:30 PM Fed H.4.1 balance sheet · tax date pulling cash into the Treasury's account · Taiwan Semiconductor reports | PPI 0.5% / 0.3% Retail 0.3% / 0.5% Philly 26.5 · claims 195K | PPI 0.4% / 0.2% Retail 1.2% / 1.4% Philly 37.8 · claims 197K |
| Fri Oct 16 | 8:30 import and export prices · Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the IMF meetings in Bangkok (U.S. time not confirmed; one calendar has it late Thursday) | — | — |
| Oct 27–28 | FOMC; decision Wednesday at 2:00 PM. The Fed's quiet period begins October 17 | — | — |
Consensus for CPI also calls for 3.6% headline and 2.5% core year over year; one forecast put the headline at 3.7%. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast for September CPI runs near 0.5% headline and 0.2% core.
Cannon's own daily levels and futures snapshot had not refreshed for today's session when this letter was published, so they are omitted rather than shown stale.
| Gamma level | SPX | ES Dec · +48.21 | Role in today's tape |
|---|---|---|---|
| Call wall | 8,000.00 | 8,048 | About 188 points above Friday's close and unchanged from Thursday. This is the first day the October SPX chain reaches it, and it confirms the level: 8,000 carries about 207,400 calls, far ahead of 7,900 (about 17,400), 7,850 (about 13,900) and 7,950 (about 13,400). The November monthly agrees with about 82,600 calls at 8,000. The same strike also holds about 195,500 puts in October, deep in-the-money interest that points to a heavily traded structure rather than a one-sided bet. Today's ES expiry book is far less ambitious: its largest call strike is 7,925 (about 10,000), roughly 59 points over the live future. |
| Gamma flip | 7,710.31 | 7,759 | The regime boundary, 101 points under the close and 11 points lower than Thursday's read of the same level, now 90 points under the put wall. The regime resets only on a cash close, not on an overnight print. |
| Put wall | 7,800.00 | 7,848 | Moved up 100 points from 7,700 and now sits 11.5 points under the close. Raw open interest tells a different story: in the October SPX chain the largest put strike below the market is still 7,700 (about 24,300), with a shelf at 7,600 (about 20,500), 7,800 (about 18,600) and 7,650 (about 15,800), and interest dies out at the lower edge of the window (7,595 holds only about 400). The November chain also peaks at 7,700 and 7,600 (about 16,600 each). Today's ES expiry book has its heaviest puts at 7,800 (about 5,600) and 7,825 (about 5,200), at and just under the ES equivalent of the wall. Where the model's gamma-weighted wall and the raw puts disagree by 100 points, the difference is information. |
Levels are SPX, close-based, from a public dealer-gamma (GEX) model. The ES column adds Friday's basis: the futures settle less the cash close. Open-interest peaks are a near-dated proxy and do not replace the model's levels.
Protection demand eased into the weekend. VVIX, the volatility of volatility, closed at 84.88, down from 87.66 a day earlier, while the VIX fell more than half a point on the rally. The VIX futures curve could not be read this morning.
The cap-weighted S&P fund trades at 3.655 times the equal-weight fund, a hair above 3.653 a day earlier, so Friday's rally did not change how top-heavy the index is. The Magnificent Seven fund closed at 73.77, up from 73.03.
Yardeni's weekend week-ahead note says he agrees that further tightening is warranted, while allowing that the timing is flexible, and that a hot CPI print could pull the move forward into October. His Saturday piece on bonds argues that the ten-year's normal range is roughly 4% to 5%, that the recent spike to about 5.25% took it above that range just as in 2002 to 2007, and that rates will stay "normal" for longer.
He also treats the surge in front-page worry about a bond blow-up as a contrarian signal, a reading that sits oddly beside the rest of the week's caution.
Matthew Miskin of Manulife John Hancock says earnings "have been incredible this year" and expects relief if the banks report well, while wondering aloud whether the market is "sniffing out something" in financials. Matt Stucky of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management is watching the damage higher rates do to capital markets and the consumer, and says equities could come under pressure if inflation re-accelerates.
Michael Reynolds of Glenmede wants "material progress" on core services inflation and expects the indexes to eventually "cry uncle" on higher rates. Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by more than 30%, which is the bar that the bulls on this panel are leaning on.
| Voice | Firm | Stance | What changed in this window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Yardeni Research | CAUT 7,900 | Held the year-end target; new notes say tightening is warranted and the ten-year's normal range is 4% to 5%. See card. |
| Matthew Miskin | Manulife John Hancock | BULL | New: earnings have been incredible; expects relief if banks deliver. See card. |
| Matt Stucky | Northwestern Mutual Wealth Mgmt | CAUT | New: equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. See card. |
| Michael Reynolds | Glenmede | CAUT | New: wants progress on core services inflation before trusting the rally. See card. |
| Elizabeth Burton | Fortress | CAUT | Held: favors floating-rate private credit and sees even October hike odds. |
| Mark Newton | Fundstrat | BULL | Held: crude fading, rates easing, tech still looks good. |
| Shawn Tuteja | Goldman Sachs | CAUT | Held: says the asymmetry on AI upside has shifted. |
| Joachim Klement | Panmure Liberum | BEAR | Held: bearish 2027 target on an AI bust. |
| Dan Ives | Yorkville Ives | BULL | Held: technology at outperform; no new remarks. |
| Henry Allen | Deutsche Bank | CAUT | Held: bonds and stocks price different regimes. |
| Cameron Dawson | NewEdge Wealth | CAUT | Held: slower earnings growth next year leaves less buffer. |
| David Keller | Sierra Alpha Research | CAUT | Held: wants far better moving-average breadth before trusting upside. |
| Tom Lee | Fundstrat | BULL | Held: sees a coiled spring and a dip worth buying. |
| Jonathan Krinsky | BTIG | CAUT | Held: expects the S&P 500 to chop and slip from the record. |
| Rick Rieder | BlackRock | NEUT | Held: stocks are just okay, bonds a real alternative, December hike expected. |
| Tony Pasquariello | Goldman Sachs | BULL | Held: primary trend higher. |
| Ohsung Kwon | Wells Fargo | CAUT 7,700 | Held: year-end target of 7,700 set in September; the index is about 1.4% above it. |
| Mike Wilson | Morgan Stanley | CAUT | Held: breadth hides weakness; an October pullback is a place to add risk. |
The caution camp (Yardeni, Stucky, Reynolds, Burton, Tuteja, Klement, Allen, Dawson, Keller, Krinsky, Wilson) is questioning what the index is ignoring in rates, funding and breadth, while Miskin, Newton, Ives, Pasquariello and Lee argue earnings, AI demand and falling oil carry it. No new desk notes from the largest banks' strategy teams surfaced over the weekend.
| Gauge | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Net liquidityFed balance sheet − TGA − RRP · Wednesday levels · updates Thu | $5.86T · ▲ $112B w/w | ADDING Unchanged since last Thursday's release; the gain came mostly from a drop in the Treasury's cash account, and the next update lands this Thursday after the close |
September's services survey showed its prices-paid component at 74.0, the highest since July 2022, weekly jobless claims are near multi-year lows, and the regional Fed manufacturing surveys averaged their strongest reading since 2021. August producer prices were running 5.4% over the year. That mix is what sits behind the Fed's September decision to raise rates and the minutes' message that most policymakers favored a further hike by year-end, and it explains why Wednesday's CPI carries more weight than any equity catalyst this week.
The two-year rose more than the ten-year Friday, flattening the curve slightly, after the ten-year touched its highest level since 2002 earlier in the week. Cash Treasuries do not trade today, so Tuesday's open is the first chance for the bond market to react to anything that happens over the weekend or this morning, and futures liquidity in rates is thin.
The overnight sequence matters. The President said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop striking each other's energy infrastructure and announced Russian diesel supply commitments, which pulled crude and European gasoil lower early. That relief has since been overtaken: Houthi strikes on Saudi airports over the weekend reportedly killed at least a dozen people, the President suggested the U.S. might join Saudi attacks on the group, and tanker attacks near Hormuz continue, with Iran said to be weighing a proposal to reopen the strait. The count of casualties differs between reports.
SpaceX announced a definitive agreement with Grain Management to buy a nationwide block of 800 MHz low-band spectrum for about $8 billion, which the company called the final critical component for a national mobile network. Verizon and AT&T were hit hard Friday, Scotiabank cut its price targets on Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T, and Australia's Telstra sold off Monday in sympathy.
IREN is up about 5% on a reported multi-year cloud agreement with Anthropic, which the company had not confirmed in the reports seen this morning. CCC Intelligent Solutions is up about 9% on reported advanced talks to be acquired by GTCR and Elliott. Amazon is reported to be in talks to buy Decart for about $7 billion.
The four largest bank earnings reports land Tuesday before the open, after a month in which the S&P 500 banks index fell by high single digits as higher rates raised questions about capital markets and consumer credit. The group's results set the tone for Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock on Wednesday.
Micron is down 1% to 2% as reports of faster progress at a Chinese memory maker and a Taiwan union's bonus demand weigh. RBC downgraded GoDaddy to Sector Perform with a $95 target, and KBW cut its SoFi target to $15 from $16 with an Underperform rating.
| Pricing | Hike odds | Read |
|---|---|---|
| October 28 meeting | ≈ 17% | Roughly four in five hold; the futures-based tracker could not be read directly, so October is two secondary reads that agree and December is one |
| December meeting | ≈ 72% | A further hike by year-end is still the pricing base case, with a funds target of 3.75–4.00% after September's increase |
Chair Warsh called September's quarter-point hike "removing a dose of accommodation" and dislikes forward guidance, so the signal this week comes from data, not speeches; he is due to speak at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on Thursday night or Friday. A renewed push by the President to remove Governor Lisa Cook drew warnings from Fed officials over the weekend. The quiet period begins October 17, which makes Wednesday's CPI the last major input before the October 27–28 meeting.
Oil fell on the Black Sea energy truce and then gave it all back within hours once the Gulf headlines took over. A market that treats one as a pause and the other as structural is telling you where it thinks supply is genuinely scarce, and with Brent a few cents from its 52-week high, the next inflation print will be written in the second kind of barrel, not the first.
With third-quarter profits expected to grow by more than 30% and the ten-year sitting above the range one strategist calls normal, a good bank report is already in the price. What can still move stocks is the guidance behind the print, on net interest income and capital-markets fees, which is where a month of weakness in bank shares says investors are looking.
The 8,000 strike holds more than 200,000 calls, but it holds nearly as many puts, an arrangement that usually reflects spreads or collars and not a one-way bet. If so, the net hedging pull toward or away from 8,000 is smaller than the gross count implies, and the level that matters for the open is the nearer one: the put wall 18 points below implied SPX, where the model and the raw puts disagree by 100 points.
A holiday for bonds, a record just out of reach and a cushion of more than 100 points above the flip describe a setup for a quiet open. What the tape cannot yet say is whether Tuesday's banks and Wednesday's CPI leave that cushion standing, and the first sign comes from how equities trade on a day when the Treasury market cannot answer back.
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