S&P 500 futures are down about 1.1% and Nasdaq futures 2.4% as Amazon, Intel and AMD sell off, pointing to an open roughly 99 points under the dealer flip

The 90-Second Read

1. Thursday split the index The S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 7,720.39, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.25% to 52,342.56 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.38% to 26,184.72, while the Russell 2000 rose 1.01% to 2,859.22. Alphabet fell 12.6% on its results and volatility closed at 17.20.
2. Futures point sharply lower ES Dec read 7,671.00 at 6:44 AM, 83.25 points under Thursday's 7,754.25 settle, and NQ Dec read 28,851.25, down 2.40%. Russell futures are down 0.60%, a much smaller drop than the large-cap contracts.
3. Amazon: growth, then the bill Third-quarter sales rose 12% to $201.9 billion with earnings of $1.89 a share, and AWS grew 39% to $46.0 billion. The company guided to about $220 billion of cash capital spending for 2026, reported trailing free cash flow of negative $42.4 billion and guided fourth-quarter sales to $240 billion–$247 billion. The shares are down 6.5% in premarket trading.
4. Chips lead the slide Intel is down 25.8% in premarket trading after its quarterly report, AMD is down 8.5%, Broadcom 3.9% and Nvidia 2.9%, and the semiconductor ETF SMH is down 4.9%. Meta is down 1.6%, Microsoft 0.6% and Alphabet 0.4% after Thursday's drop, while Chevron is up 1.4%.
5. Data came in firm, yields fell Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% against a 3.2% consensus, September PCE prices rose 3.6% from a year earlier against 3.7% expected, and initial jobless claims were 194,000. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 7 basis points to 4.98%, the 2-year fell 6 to 4.61% and the 30-year fell 5 to 5.32%.
6. Crude up, gold down December WTI read 104.14, up 2.10% from Thursday's 102.00 settle, while gold read 3,990.4, down 1.02% from its 4,031.40 settle.
7. Levels into the open ES sits 12 points above Cannon's third support at 7,658.58, with the 30-day low at 7,648.5 just beneath it. The daily pivot is 7,741.42, with first support at 7,709.08 and second support at 7,690.92.

The Scoreboard

Rows with a clock time are taken at that time; index and Treasury rows are Thursday's closes, and the bitcoin row is Cannon's Thursday settlement.

Sentiment & Flow Gauges

Flow Read

Thursday's index loss came from the largest names rather than from the broad membership: advancers far outnumbered decliners and up volume led, and the closing TRIN of 2.25 is above the 2.0 mark that marks a stretched, selling-heavy extreme. Over the past four weeks the S&P 500 gained 1.2% to Wednesday while net liquidity fell $18B. The open now meets a tape under the flip, so the early session tests whether dealer hedging amplifies the AI-driven selling in the chip and cloud names.

Calendar & Scenario Map

Earnings results from Exxon Mobil and Chevron arrive before the open; estimates are omitted until results post.

Levels & Structure

Cannon's daily pivot for ES Dec is 7,741.42, with resistance at 7,759.58, 7,791.92 and 7,810.08 and support at 7,709.08, 7,690.92 and 7,658.58. The contract's 30-day range runs from 7,648.5 to 7,897.5, which is also its 52-week high.

Cannon Daily Levels · October 30

Cannon Edge · October 30

The November 20 SPX options chain, on a window running from 7,500 to 7,925, shows its largest call open interest above the market at 7,900, with 18,508 contracts, followed by 7,800 with 14,412 and 7,850 with 14,096. The heaviest round-number strike sits beyond the window's upper edge, so the call structure is a shelf running up toward the next round number rather than a single peak. Below the market the largest put open interest inside the window is at 7,700 with 24,898 contracts, ahead of 7,600 with 20,070, and the 7,700 strike also carries 21,239 calls that are now in the money, which makes it one of the most heavily traded strikes on the board. At the lower edge, 7,500 holds 41,754 puts, so the put structure is a shelf running down to at least that strike. In today's expiring ES weekly options, call open interest peaks above the market at 7,850 with 7,290 contracts, ahead of 7,800 with 6,280 and 7,790 with 5,420, while puts peak below the market at 7,500 with 22,526, followed by 7,650 at 12,574. The 7,700 weekly strike also holds 16,213 puts that sit above the futures price and are now in the money. The all-expiry put wall at 7,700 lines up with the heaviest put strike inside the November chain, while the all-expiry call wall at 7,800 sits under the 7,900 peak, which is information rather than error: the near-dated structure and the aggregate place the ceiling in different spots.

Concentration was the story under Thursday's close. The cap-weighted S&P 500 fund fell 0.38% while its equal-weight counterpart rose 1.20%, and the fund tracking the seven largest names fell 2.19%. Premarket, the equal-weight fund is up 0.36% against a 0.98% drop for the cap-weighted fund.

Institutional Positioning

Desk Shift Tracker

Macro Pressure Map

Portfolio Positioning

Model mix described by Gundlach in his post-meeting interview on Wednesday; today's chip and cloud selling is the kind of AI concentration that mix avoids.

Fed Watch

The committee held the target range at 3.75%–4% by a 10–2 vote on Wednesday, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase. Thursday's releases were the first hard data since the decision: growth ran at 3.4% in the third quarter and PCE prices rose 3.6% from a year earlier, a touch under the consensus. Jobless claims of 194,000 point to a labor market that is still tight, which keeps the hawkish dissent in view. Today's employment cost index is the next inflation input.

What the Consensus Is Missing