Bottom Line
Top of BookIs the risk worth the reward at this point? Part 11
The question I keep getting is not about a level. It's about whether to be in this market at all. Stay invested while indexes print records, or take a guaranteed yield in short-term paper and sit this out until it works itself out. It sounds like the conservative choice, and it is — but conservative is not the same as costless. Every decision in this tape charges you something, including the decision to do nothing.
The Blue Wave Hit the AI Trade
Week of November 2–6, 2026 · Cannon Intelligence Desk
One session undid the month. The S&P 500 finished the week at 7,376.86, down 2.68%, after a 4.36% collapse on Thursday that erased Wednesday's post-election rally and then some. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.37% to 24,579.42, the Russell 2000 2.05% to 2,754.11 and the Dow 0.94% to 51,285.73. The SOX lost 12.15% to 9,390.25. The index now sits 5.7% under its October 6 record close of 7,818.93. The VIX ended at 25.64, up from 19.42 a week earlier, after closing at 28.18 on Thursday.
The 7,527 support from last week's report gave way Thursday, and Friday's bounce could not reclaim it.
The week in sequence
Monday the good news went unrewarded. Palantir grew revenue 96% to $2.313 billion and raised guidance; Apple posted record September-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion. Both traded lower. The S&P slipped 0.51% to 7,541.40 while the Dow rose 0.41%, and crude settled at 96.46, down 6.77%, on hopes for U.S.–Iran talks.
Tuesday, Election Day, the index rose 0.36% to 7,568.92 on the heavy weights alone: decliners beat advancers 313 to 184 and the equal-weight fund fell 0.33%. AMD beat after the close and guided above expectations.
Wednesday Democrats were projected to take both chambers. ES sank to 7,490.00 overnight, then reversed. The S&P gained 1.58% to 7,688.62 and the Dow 3.03% to 53,356.12, with 372 advancers against 127 — but Micron fell 7.00% and Nvidia 3.17%. That was a rotation out of AI hardware, not a broad all-clear, and the cash index closed just 9.13 points above the dealer gamma flip.
Thursday the bill arrived. Fear that a Democratic Congress slows the data-center build-out hit the whole AI hardware chain: ETF SMH semiconductor, Micron & AMD fell and the S&P lost 4.36% to 7,353.73, the Nasdaq 5.52% and the Dow 1,833 points. Only 9% of S&P volume traded up — a 90% down day — and new highs collapsed from 71 to 11.
Friday's October payrolls came in hot: 165,000 jobs against a 55,000 consensus, unemployment at 4.1%, hourly earnings up 0.4%, and August and September revised up a combined 84,000. Chips led, with the SOX up 4.21%, but the broader bounce faded by midday and the S&P closed up just 0.31%. Up volume was 43.6% of the total, and the share of members above their 200-day fell to 55.4%, from 66.5% on Wednesday.
What the rest of the market said
Oil did not trade like a growth scare. December WTI fell 13.2% on the week to 90.34 on Iran diplomacy, yet settled up 2.40 on Thursday's crash day. Gold rose 4.6% to 4,079.50. The ten-year ended at 4.86%, up 2 basis points on the jobs report but 8 lower on the week; the dollar index finished at 102.28.
Liquidity turned the other way from stocks: net liquidity switched from draining to adding, at $5.81 trillion, up $82 billion on the week, as the Treasury's cash balance came off its peak. Credit did not confirm the relief — the high-yield spread widened 18 basis points on the week to 3.32%.
Who moved
Dan Ives (Yorkville) cut his framework: at least 10% of planned data centers don't get built, and big-tech capex growth peaks in 2027, not 2028–29. Friday he still called the rout a "generational buying opportunity," with demand four times capacity and 75% of 2027–28 data centers already approved. He prefers hyperscalers and software; neoclouds should be down.
Tom Lee (Fundstrat) called Thursday a policy shock that smelled of forced liquidation, expects at least a 15% tech rally and says the December hike probably doesn't happen. Ed Yardeni held his 7,900 year-end target: "the beware period is over," and the data-center constraints are speed bumps, not roadblocks.
Jeremy Siegel called it a healthy shakeup but turned neutral — AI stocks are now fairly valued, not cheap. Anastasia Amoroso (Partners Group) sees an overreaction to overconcentration: the question is where and how data centers get built, not whether. She prefers hyperscalers over neoclouds and semis.
The technicians turned cautious. Brian Belski (BMO) noted downside volume ran 5-to-1, short of the 8-to-1 to 10-to-1 that marks a washout. Mark Newton (Fundstrat) went from "a low looks near" Thursday to Friday's note that the half-hearted bounce does not signal the decline has run its course. David Keller (Sierra Alpha) flagged Nvidia breaking below its 200-day and calls this an "anything but tech" market. Jeff deGraaf (Renaissance Macro) holds that semis and AI have been a bubble since May, with real rates the chokehold — though November is the calendar's best month.
Liz Ann Sonders (Schwab) says rotation is the new momentum trade, with health care leapfrogging technology. Mohamed El-Erian (Allianz) warns the economy is levered to AI and expects at least one more hike. Michael Hartnett (BofA) wants central banks to stop tightening, lower long yields and cheaper oil before adding risk, and sees a rebound possibly starting after Thanksgiving.
Into next week
October CPI lands Tuesday at 8:30 (prior 0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y; core 0.3% and 2.6%), PPI Friday (prior 1.3%; core 0.7%) and jobless claims Thursday (prior 189K). A dozen Fed speeches fill the week — Goolsbee and Barkin Monday; Logan, Schmid, Bowman and Paulson Tuesday; Hammack, Barr, Daly and Williams Thursday; Daly again Friday. After a jobs report this hot, CPI decides whether December is a hike.
On the map: Thursday's November options left the heaviest put open interest at 7,300 and 7,200, with call interest capped near 7,500. Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley) has long marked 7,100–7,200 as where this correction finds material support. Above, 7,475 and last week's broken 7,600 are now resistance. On the SOX, Thursday's 8,997.39 low sat just around some FIB retracement and the 200-day far overhead at 10,831. The ten-year, the high-yield spread and the equal-weight index will say whether this was a clearing event or the start of one.
I am biased toward the tape. I follow what the market does, not what I think it should do.
Technical Analysis
Levels, Moving Averages & Fib RetracementsI’ve been studying charts for 32 years now, as you can see week in and week out when I give you levels that’s where price tends to settle for a fight between the bulls and bears.
S&P 500 — SPX
Holding the 50% Fib at 7,361SPX – the trend was broken to the downside. 7626 support was broken. Market held the 50% FIB # for now, 7,361 which is above the 200 DMA. Next supports FIB levels, June low, & trendlines. Resistance; 100, 20, 50 DMA FIB #’s.
I see a debate in technical analysis; are we in wave 5 or wave 3 in Elliot waves, if were in wave 5 this is all she wrote, if its wave 3 & we clear the 8,500 we should get to the 12K area.
Nasdaq Composite — COMP
Pulled In Hard to Fib SupportNASDAQ, pulled in hard. Next support FIB levels; purple and green horizontal lines, and trendlines. Resistance can be found at FIB levels 200, 20, 100, 50 DMA.
Dow Jones Industrial Average — DJI
200 DMA & Trendlines Near 50,642DOW - Next support can be found at FIB levels, 200 DMA, & trendlines around 50,642. Resistance; FIB levels, 20,50,100 DMA then all-time high.
Russell 2000 — RUT
61% Fib Support Held AgainRUT –found support around its 61% FIB level 2 weeks ago and again this week. If you recall The RED trendline which I mentioned was a resistance line going back to 2000, this week it held as resistance.
Support levels can be found at FIB #’s horizontal lines. Resistance; at the 200, 20, 50 & 100 DMA, FIB levels then the red trendline & all-time high (As I mentioned if the 10-year yield is rising, that should support the bears) I am fallowing the small cap story to get an understanding regarding risk on or off. The RED trendline was a resistance line going back to 2000.
VIX — Volatility Index
Higher Lows Against SPY’s Higher HighsVIX was making higher lows as the SPY was making higher highs (which was not a positive sign for the SPY) . next support 200, 100, 50 DMA then 12.70, resistance FIB levels and dotted trendline.
Crude Oil WTI — CL
Back at $87.23 SupportCL - This is why I watch the FIB levels, see how crude found a short-term resistance again around $104.26 a level we have marked for month, now at support around $87.23 again. Crude is playing the levels nicely and trading off news. Support and resistance can be found at MA, FIB levels and trendlines.
Gold — GC
Double Top Near 4,791Gold found resistance around the 4791 FIB level which seems to be a double top formation going back to may, (3,516.1 is a 38% FIB retracement and 3,622 is a trendline going back 3 years). Resistance can be found at 20, 50,100, 200 DMA, FIB levels and horizontal lines. Support; FIB levels & trendline. Read my notes on US Dollar Index
Fixed Income — 10-Year Treasury Yield
Under the 20 & 50 DMAWe took out the 5% last month, next resistance levels I have are the yellow horizontal lines. Shorter term resistance 20, 50 DMA & FIB levels. Support can be found at 100, 200 DMA, trendlines and FIB levels. Probably one of the most important instruments to watch, High yields and interest rates are said to be a negative for earnings growth, primarily because they dramatically increase corporate borrowing costs and interest expenses. (Note: I am watching yields closely ETF – HYG, due to all the debt the Hyperscalers are issuing as of late). (The market seems to be finally paying attention to higher rates; I’ve been writing for a few month as we made new all-time highs in S&P and DOW) how long can that last? The other side of the coin and what I hear analysts saying; Today is not like 2022, when the Fed was battling surging inflation with an aggressive rate-hiking cycle, the Fed may be adjusting its policy rate up toward a level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth.
US Dollar Index — DXY
Trading Around $101.797The front end of the curve went down after the June FED meeting, 2-year yield went down and the DXY did the same. After Jackson hole the front end went up and so did DXY)
The daily chart hit the level I gave almost exactly $101.797 came back in to the $98.5 area and now trading around the $101.797. (Note the correlation between yields and $ and inverse correlation between the $ and gold & silver. Support can be found at trendlines & MA. Next Resistance at $104.365, horizontal FIB levels & trendlines.
Bitcoin — BTC
Stalled at 87,700Bitcoin BTC stalled at 87,700, Support can be found at 100, 200 MA and FIB levels. Resistance at FIB levels & 20, 50 DMA. BTC has been playing the FIB levels nicely. Past indications of level don’t automatically mean they will hold again.
Futures
Daily
ETF — IGV Software
Fib Numbers Working NicelyIGV –The Fib #’s are working nicely. Next support and resistance are FIB#’s and MA.
Silver Futures — SI
Support at the $47.3 61% FibIt seems like the levels are working again, the 200 DMA was hit and acted as resistance. Support and resistance can be found via FIB#’s and MA. The prior all-time high for silver was in 2011 around $50.68, 61% FIB retracement is around $47.3. (this week we found support right around this level) if that level doesn’t hold the next level I have is around $27.
Dollar strength usually puts downward pressure on silver prices, Silver has already broken below its July support level, which is now likely to act as resistance. Silver has maintained a strong inverse relationship with the dollar for some time.
Semiconductors — SOX
38% Fib Support, Below the 200 DMASOX –index fell hard this week and found support around its 38% FIB level. Next support and resistance are MA & FIB levels. Were closed below the 200 DMA. Note: be cautious this sector is volatile. 9976.11 is 61% FIB level.
Oracle — ORCL
$132.14 Fib Did Not HoldAround February time I posted a video that ORCL is approaching a major trendline around the $136 and a 68% FIB level. the stock shot up to $247 area, and came all the way back, we broke the upward trendline to the downside (light blue dotted line), now were trading below that area. FIB level did not hold at $132.14 next level $121.76. Next support after that level around the $99 and then $74. This is probably one of the major stocks to watch as its heavily invested in the AI buildout, I watch the credit spreads.
NVIDIA — NVDA
Below the 200, 100, 50 & 20 DMANVDA – is down for year. Resistance 200,100, 50, 20 DMA FIB levels and trendlines. Support – $181 area, FIB levels. the MAGS ETF lost its mojo. The ETF is around 34% of the SPY.
Single-Stock Futures — CME
Product ListHere is the list of the stock futures trading on the CME:
AAPL, ABBV, ADBE, AMAT, AMD, AMGN, AMZN, AVGO, BA, BAC, BKNG, BRKB, CAT, CMCSA, COP, COST, CRM, CSCO, CVX, DIS, GOOGL, HD, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, LLY, LMT, MA, MCD, META, MRK, MSFT, MU, NEM, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, PANW, PEP, PFE, PG, PLD, PLTR, QCOM, SBUX, SPCX, TSLA, TXN, UNH, V, VZ, WMT, XOM
Weekly Economic Calendar
Week of November 9 – November 13, 2026| Day | Time ET | Release |
|---|---|---|
| MON 11/9 | 10:00 AM | Wholesale Trade |
| MON 11/9 | 10:00 AM | Fed Speech – Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee |
| MON 11/9 | 12:15 PM | Fed Speech – Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin |
| TUE 11/10 | 6:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| TUE 11/10 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
| TUE 11/10 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core CPI, M/M% |
| TUE 11/10 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | CPI, Y/Y% |
| TUE 11/10 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core CPI, Y/Y% |
| TUE 11/10 | 10:50 AM | Fed Speech – Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan |
| TUE 11/10 | 11:00 AM | NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report |
| TUE 11/10 | 1:30 PM | Fed Speech – Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid |
| TUE 11/10 | 3:30 PM | Fed Speech – Vice Chair Michelle Bowman (Council on Foreign Relations) |
| TUE 11/10 | 6:30 PM | Fed Speech – Vice Chair Michelle Bowman |
| TUE 11/10 | 6:30 PM | Fed Speech – Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson |
| WED 11/11 | — | No events scheduled |
| THU 11/12 | 8:30 AM | Weekly Jobless Claims |
| THU 11/12 | 9:00 AM | Fed Speech – Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack |
| THU 11/12 | 10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales |
| THU 11/12 | 10:00 AM | Fed Speech – Governor Michael Barr |
| THU 11/12 | 1:10 PM | Fed Speech – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly |
| THU 11/12 | 2:00 PM | Monthly Treasury Balance |
| THU 11/12 | 6:30 PM | Fed Speech – New York Fed President John Williams |
| FRI 11/13 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Producer Price Index (PPI) |
| FRI 11/13 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core PPI (ex-Food & Energy), M/M% |
| FRI 11/13 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | PPI, Y/Y% |
| FRI 11/13 | 12:00 PM | Fed Speech – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly |
Key Earnings
Week of November 9 – November 13, 2026Monday (November 9) — Before the Open: CEG, MNDY, B, KKR, NRG, SBET, KSPI, EVGO
After the Close: HIMS, RKLB, ASTS, TTD, ZETA, ACHR, QUBT, MARA, OXY, TTWO, USAR, PLUG, LCID, QMCO, HIVE, MVST, PSKY, ABCL, ONTO, APPS, BMBL, HROW, NXE, WGS
Tuesday (November 10) — Before the Open: QBTS, SE, ONON, WIX, KULR, VG, WYFI, ETOR, BTDR, TDG, PDYN, CAN
After the Close: CRWV, RGTI, AMPX, FLY, PBR, LPTH, PBR.A, LWLG
Wednesday (November 11) — Before the Open: RUM, ODD, HMC
After the Close: ENS
Thursday (November 12) — Before the Open: NBIS, ONDS, LUNR, TE, BN, BTBT, FPS, YETI, FIGR, TWST, XE
After the Close: AMAT, CSCO, DLO, CBRS, ENVX, TMC, STNE, SPCE
Friday (November 13) — Before the Open: LAC
Learn With Eli
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- The overnight action and the key levels I’m watching
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Futures Trading 101
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Eli Gal Levy has been trading since 1998. He writes the Cannon Edge Pre-Market Briefing and this weekly technical analysis update, and teaches futures trading at GalTrades.com.
by Eli G Levy · eli@cannontrading.com · November 7, 2026 · Issue 044