Futures Market Volatility News


Volatility Returns to Stock Index Futures – Levels & reports for August 5th

August 4th, 2014 Filed under Financial Futures, Future Trading News, Futures Trading, Index Futures | Comment (0)

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

As I do from time to time, I like to share resources I feel are worthy of exploring, such is the one below by www.factset.com :

Overview:

  • US equities came under pressure this week as the S&P 500 suffered its biggest weekly pullback in over two years. Despite the magnitude of the move, there was not an overriding theme that captured the price action.
  • Widely cited headwinds included Fed angst, geopolitical tensions, disappointing earnings, the latest flare-up on the Eurozone periphery, the slowdown in the housing recovery, Argentina’s default, fatigue, technical and continued worries about stretched valuations and crowded trades.
  • However, there were notable pockets of reprieve surrounding some of these concerns, particularly when it came to monetary policy and earnings. In addition, geopolitics has not proved to be a sustainable directional driver, while the tipping point search has been in play for a while.
  • While largely on the backburner, there were some positive dynamics at work this week. The pickup in strategic M&A activity continued, while there more signs of stabilization in China, where the Shanghai Composite bucked the sell off in global equities with a nearly 3% rally.
  • There did not seem to be any great signals from the sector performance this week with the broad-based nature of the risk-off trade and company-specific takeaways from a very busy week of earnings. Energy and industrials put in the worst performance, while telecom held up the best.

Fed angst finds some reprieve:

  • Worries about the Fed being behind the curve and the potential for an earlier and more aggressive start to the policy normalization process continued to get a lot of attention as a source of market angst this week. There were two particular areas of focus. One was the 4% growth in Q2 GDP, which was a full point ahead of the consensus. The other was the 0.7% increase in the Q2 employment cost index (ECI), which was ahead of the 0.5% consensus and marked the fast growth in six years. The hotter ECI print was of particular interest because it followed on the heels of an FOMC statement that hedged an upgrade of the assessment of the labor market by noting that a range of indicators suggest a significant underutilization of labor resources. However, there was some reprieve late in the week as average hourly earnings were flat in July, leaving them up just 2.0% y/y. This compared to expectations for a 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y increase. In addition, while a sixth straight month of nonfarm payrolls growth above 200K kept the recovery traction theme in focus, the 209K was slightly below expectations and not robust enough to impact liftoff expectations. Finally, despite the hype surrounding Fed fears, yields in the front and belly of the curve were actually lower on the week.

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Futures Market Volatility News 4.29.2014

April 28th, 2014 Filed under Commodity Trading, Future Trading News, Futures Trading | Comment (0)

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5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday April 29, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Russia Menaces Ukraine, Squelches Earnings Enthusiasm

Fri, 25 Apr 2014 16:08 PM EST- US equity markets bounced erratically between earnings enthusiasm and Ukraine-induced fear this week in a low-volume, post-Easter holiday environment. Strong quarterly results from major tech names and Dow components helped push indices higher, with Apple and Facebook the particular standouts. In addition, several huge merger deals in the pharmaceutical space also helped risk appetite. But the steady deterioration in the Ukraine situation dragged things lower and the continuing rotation out of momentum names whipped around the Nasdaq all week. For the week, the DJIA is down 0.3%, the S&P500 is off 0.1% and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%.

– The Ukraine crisis deepened this week as Kiev pressed its “anti-terrorist” operations in Eastern Ukraine and Russia conducted “military exercises” along the border. At one point, Russian armor was said to have moved in force to within one kilometer of the border, inspiring real fears that the invasion was imminent. Russia President Putin called the use force against pro-Russian forces in Ukraine “a crime” that will have consequences, while Russia’s UN ambassador went as far as invoking a nation’s right to self-defense under the UN charter as a justification for potential direct intervention in Ukraine. Officials in Kiev warned that any Russian incursions would be met directly with military force, while the Western powers convened on Friday to discuss arranging possible sanctions on the broader Russian economy.

– New home sales in the US tumbled to eight-month low in March, dropping 14.5% y/y. However the January and February totals were revised up 3% and 2%, respectively. Affordability is likely becoming a big factor for the market: the median new home price rose to a record high of $290K, up 13% y/y.

– Front month WTI crude lost over 3% this week, dropping from nearly $104 to just above $100 on profit taking. Concerns about further builds in US crude oil inventories overshadowed tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Last Wednesday, the EIA weekly report showed that US crude inventories were only 3.4 million barrels below the peak reached in May 2013. This week’s EIA report pushed US crude oil inventories above the 2013 high to 397.7 million barrels, levels not seen in 80 years.

– Excellent earnings from Apple, Facebook and Netflix could not save the Nasdaq from Amazon and the continuing rotation out of hot tech stocks this week. Both Facebook and Apple beat earnings and revenue targets, while Apple crushed expectations for iPhone shipments and boosted capital returns to shareholders. Facebook saw solid gains in user metrics and an 82% y/y gain in advertising revenue. Netflix sustained decent metrics and met expectations. Apple sustained 8% gains on the week, while gains in FB and NFLX evaporated rapidly. Amazon dropped 5% on the week after operating income shrank y/y and the firm’s second quarter revenue guidance fell short of consensus expectations. Microsoft offered solidly in-line, vanilla results.

– Results from the big US automakers were hampered, like everything else, by bad weather, although there were some self-inflicted wounds as well. General Motors beat earnings forecasts, despite a big decline in profits due to its recent recalls. Ford’s first quarter profit was down from the same period last year and missed expectations. Caterpillar posted a quarterly profit that topped analysts estimates and raised its full-year outlook on a stronger-than-expected rebound in sales in the construction industry.

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