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Dear Traders,
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Gold: At the Crossroads of Fiscal and Monetary Policies
Twice this year implied volatility in gold options spiked from 9% to around 13.5%. Proportionally, that represents a 50% rise and seems like a big move, at least by the standards of recent history. What is more remarkable, however, is how calm the gold market has generally been. For the past two years, implied volatility on gold options have been near the lowest levels in recent memory and are a far cry from the 17% average levels that prevailed in 2015 and 2016, much less the spikes above 30% in 2011 and 2013 (Figure 1). So why has the gold market been so placid and what will likely drive volatility?
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