As with the first report on the Friday after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the Omicron variant has settled into a dominant market force. News in the next few weeks could result in near-term trends in a long list of commodities – in the form of significant euphoria events or aggressive risk-off plunges similar to ones already seen since Nov. 24th. With that said, global markets – and traders – can also keep an eye on other big-picture fundamentals that can be more important drivers of price. Take for example sugar. Since the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, sugar prices have moved sharply to the downside, and reached a four-month low on December 2. sugar should still have a bullish supply outlook this season even if energy prices stay well below their recent highs. Brazil’s Center-South sugar production is expected to decline more than 6 million tonnes from last season, a deficit that cannot be offset by other producing nations. With the market well below its November highs, sugar could see a significant recovery in the face of any Omicron news.
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The sugar market has made a significant upside move over the past few days and weeks.
Weather concerns for part of the growing areas in Asia, as well as strength in Brazilian real contributed to this rally.
From a technical point of view, I feel this market is overbought and over-extended, but when fundamentals take over, you can use the charts for wall decoration…That being said, I will be looking for signs of exhaustion on the daily and weekly charts.
The chart below is a monthly chart of sugar, and you will see that we are trading right against recent highs and I got a sell signal in the shape of my red diamond. However, I don’t have a crystal ball, hence I will look on the daily chart for a similar clue before trying to go against the trend and go short.