{"id":19732,"date":"2024-05-06T12:19:08","date_gmt":"2024-05-06T20:19:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/?p=19732"},"modified":"2024-05-07T11:38:29","modified_gmt":"2024-05-07T19:38:29","slug":"coffee-hope-probability-levels-for-may-7th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/coffee-hope-probability-levels-for-may-7th\/","title":{"rendered":"Coffee, Hope, Probability + Levels for May 7th"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Coffee, Hope & Probability….<\/h3>\n

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by John Thorpe, Senior Broker<\/p>\n

In lieu of a light Data and fed speaker wee, we have a relatively heavy earnings week but none of the magnificent seven reporting, so here goes with a few words on the Coffee Futures Market.<\/p>\n

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After the July coffee<\/a> market rallied to contract highs April 16th<\/sup>..\u00a0@245.50<\/p>\n

A target based on price count theory\u00a0had been met\u00a0and\u00a0there was a low probability of the rally extending much higher.<\/p>\n

When we got the corrective trade and price action took us down below the 21 day MA at the 220.00 area, , this market , for us,\u00a0showed\u00a0the rally was over for the time being.<\/p>\n

It certainly looks like the price action wants to get back down into the channel\u00a0between\u00a0198.00 and 175.00 as it was uncomfortable at the higher price levels above 200\u00a0\u00a0, due to the steep sell off from the mid-April highs I would look for a corrective rally before we continue back into the comfort zone.<\/p>\n

Seasonality:\u00a0\u00a0Southern Hemisphere coffees have already been harvested; Northern hemisphere coffee beans be ripe for the picking in Early Summer to Mid Fall.<\/p>\n

The crop was better than expected in the southern hemisphere\u00a0and the Northern hemisphere weather is tempering…\u00a0\u00a0unless there becomes a disease scare or a sudden drought the next few months, I would anticipate Coffee Bean prices to moderate further, working lower and testing the bottom of the range.<\/p>\n

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Above we Referenced \u201cprobability<\/p>\n

The difference between\u00a0probability\u00a0and\u00a0hope<\/strong><\/p>\n

Is that\u00a0probability<\/strong>\u00a0is the state of being probable; likelihood..\u00a0While\u00a0hope\u00a0is the belief or expectation that something wished for can or will happen.<\/p>\n

Probability is usually stated between 0 and 1 , One reflecting the highest probability of an event occurring and zero meaning no chance the event will occur.<\/p>\n

We avoid Hope in our trading decisions.<\/p>\n

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Daily Levels for May 6th, 2024<\/h3>\n

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc<\/a>. Any statement of facts\u00a0here in\u00a0contained are derived from sources believed to be\u00a0reliable,\u00a0but are not guaranteed as to\u00a0accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own\u00a0judgement\u00a0in trading.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group! Subscribe to our\u00a0YouTube Channel Listen to our Market Recap Podcasts on Apple Podcasts     Coffee, Hope & Probability….   by John Thorpe, Senior Broker In lieu of a light Data and fed speaker wee, we have a relatively heavy earnings week but […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19732"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19732\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19736,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19732\/revisions\/19736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}