By John Thorpe, Senior Broker<\/em><\/h3>\nSanctions, Tariffs, CPI, WASDE and more earnings, predominantly tier 2.<\/h4>\n
Aside from a big Tuesday CPI report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Tariff impacts are creating volatility in commodity markets (industrial metals, Orange Juice, Coffee, Grains) look for news about China, Canada Tariffs in addition to whatever rumblings are leaked about Russia\/US talks. The on again off again nature of the talks has created golden opportunities for breakouts in some markets, rangebound trades in others. (see gold commentary below)<\/p>\n
The potential Trump-Putin meeting has become the main commodity market news of this week, with analysts speculating about the likelihood of a comprehensive deal and the impacts this could have on oil markets. ICE Brent has been gradually sliding closer to $65 per barrel as lower sanction risks on Russia could further erode the market\u2019s in-built risk premium, however a potential failure in the talks could spark another price rally above $70.\u00a0 Remember that current market drivers for Equities are hard data on Jobs, Inflation, Trump tweets and Geopolitics.\u00a0Two weeks ago,\u00a0I wrote this: Watch for the gold market to maintain its rangebound stance, close below 3350 (basis December) or above 3500 should denote a breakout, begin trading the December(Z) contract next week.\u00a0\u00a0Last week\u00a0I wrote:\u00a0 Dec gold traded below 3350 today and the past three days but never closed meaningfully below 3350.0 (3348.60 Thurs.) Today we have breached $3500.00 oz with a high in the $3543.00 area per oz. while currently trading @$3493.00 oz as of this writing. Look for a close above $3500.00 on successive days to again accumulate longs. This may be the break from this range we are looking for. Manage your downside risk according to your account size, risk no more than 15-20% whether with options or futures.<\/p>\n
Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals, especially with China, India and Russia, remember that Mexico is currently under a\u00a0 90-day extension.<\/p>\n
\u00a0Earnings Next Week:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Mon. Quiet<\/li>\n
- Tue.\u00a0 Sea Limited, CoreWeave<\/li>\n
- Wed. Cisco<\/li>\n
- Thu. Alibaba, Applied Materials, Ross Stores<\/li>\n
- Fri.\u00a0\u00a0 Quiet<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/p>\n
FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Mon.\u00a0\u00a0 Quiet<\/li>\n
- Tues.\u00a0 9 am Barkin, 9:30 am Schmid<\/li>\n
- Wed.\u00a0 6:30 am Barkin, Noon Goolsbee, 1:30 pm Bostic<\/li>\n
- Thu.\u00a0\u00a0 1 pm Barkin,<\/li>\n
- Fri.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Quiet<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Economic Data week:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Mon.\u00a0 Quiet<\/li>\n
- Tue.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CPI, Redbook,\u00a0 WASDE<\/li>\n
- Wed.\u00a0 EIA Crude Stocks,\u00a0 17-week Bill auction<\/li>\n
- Thur.\u00a0 PPI, Jobless claims, EIA NAT GAS Storage, Fed Balance sheet<\/li>\n
- Fri.\u00a0\u00a0Empire State data, Retail sales, Cap Utilization, Business inventories, Mich. Consumer Sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/3dc00ef7001\/eb23d89b-a6ee-494c-a74a-38b5f4e886e7.png?rdr=true\" "\\"\\"") <\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDay trading futures using correlated markets for spread strategies<\/h1>\nBy Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP<\/h4>\nDay trading futures using correlated markets for spread strategies\u2014such as trading the Micro Nasdaq (MNQ) against the Micro S&P 500 (MES)\u2014offers a powerful way to manage directional risk while capitalizing on relative performance.<\/p>\n These two indices often move in tandem, but subtle divergences can emerge intraday due to sector weightings, earnings reports, or macro headlines. By going long one and short the other, traders can isolate relative strength or weakness between tech-heavy Nasdaq and broader-market S&P exposure. This approach reduces exposure to broad market swings and instead focuses on the spread between the two instruments, which tends to revert to a mean over time.<\/p>\n To execute this effectively, traders should monitor correlation metrics, use synchronized charting (e.g., Renko or range bars), and define clear entry\/exit rules based on spread behavior rather than outright price movement. It\u2019s important to size positions proportionally\u2014since MNQ and MES have different volatility profiles\u2014and to track the spread ratio rather than individual P&L. Economic releases, Fed commentary, and sector rotation can all influence spread dynamics, so staying nimble and avoiding over-leverage is key.<\/p>\n This strategy works best in liquid hours (8:30 AM\u201311:30 AM EST) when volume and volatility are high but more predictable.<\/p>\n Next steps for exploring and refining your MNQ vs MES spread strategy:<\/p>\n Step-by-Step Exploration of the MNQ\/MES Spread Strategy<\/p>\n To begin, monitor both MNQ and MES in real time using side-by-side charts and DOMs (Depth of Market) to observe how they move in relation to each other. Pay attention to divergences during key market events, such as economic releases or sector rotations. Start in a simulated environment to test your thesis without capital risk. Try creating an order ticket that treats the spread as a unified trade\u2014some platforms allow custom spread orders, while others may require manual execution through two DOMs. Compare both methods to see which offers better control and execution efficiency.<\/p>\n Refinement Through Data and Journaling<\/p>\n Track daily price movements and note how the spread behaves\u2014record the dollar value difference between MNQ and MES and how it would have impacted your P&L if traded as a spread. Consider experimenting with different ratios, such as 2 MES contracts versus 1 MNQ, to balance volatility and margin requirements. Keep a detailed journal of your observations, trade setups, and emotional responses. This will help identify patterns and refine your edge.<\/p>\n Finally, reach out to to our\u00a0series 3 licensed brokers with ANY questions!<\/a>\u00a0who specialize in index spreads\u2014they can offer insights on execution, risk management, and platform-specific tips that accelerate your learning curve.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/3dc00ef7001\/f216f931-249c-4fdf-bd99-7957d445f013.png?rdr=true\" "\\"\\"") <\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHot Market of the Week<\/h2>\nHot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center,\u00a0A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.<\/p>\n \n\n\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSeptember Natural Gas<\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\nSeptember natural gas broke down into a new contract low where it satisfied its third downside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near-term reaction in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. At this point, IF the chart can resume its break with new sustained lows, we are left with the low-percentage fourth count to the 1.77 area that we view as highly unlikely.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/3dc00ef7001\/7137ac51-dcdd-4e85-8ed1-63236a6f847d.png?rdr=true\" "\\"\\"") <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n| \n The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an \u2018exact\u2019 science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. <\/em><\/p>\nIt is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com<\/em><\/p>\nTrading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. <\/em><\/p>\nPast performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBrokers Trading System of the Week<\/h2>\nSentinel E-mini Nasdaq 15′<\/h1>\nMarkets Traded:\u00a0 Mini NASDAQ Futures NQ<\/p>\n System\u00a0Type:\u00a0Swing\u00a0Trading<\/p>\n Risk\u00a0per\u00a0Trade:\u00a0varies<\/p>\n Trading\u00a0Rules:\u00a0Partially Disclosed<\/p>\n Suggested Capital: $20,000<\/p>\n Developer Fee per contract: $120 Monthly Subscription<\/p>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/3dc00ef7001\/a1140938-c542-4824-9a74-58863ae380f7.png?rdr=true\" "\\"\\"") <\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n| Disclaimer\u00a0The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and\/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.<\/p>\n IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE<\/p>\n Futures trading is complex and carries the risk of substantial losses. It is not suitable for all investors. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.<\/p>\n The returns for trading systems listed throughout this website are hypothetical in that they represent returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system\u2019s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available \u2013 by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system\u2019s trading signals on that day in real time (real-time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available \u2013 by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data (backadjusted).<\/p>\n Please read carefully the CFTC required disclaimer regarding hypothetical results below. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.<\/p>\n ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING.<\/p>\n FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.<\/p>\n THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.<\/p>\n Please read full disclaimer HERE.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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<\/h4>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n