By John Thorpe, Senior Broker<\/em><\/h3>\nJackson Hole Economic Symposium, 6th\u00a0inning of the Earnings season, Fed Speakers, FOMC minutes<\/h4>\n
Retailers report earnings next week, WMT, TGT, Home Improvement Icons HD and Lowes<\/p>\n
A three-day annual global symposium Begins Wednesday with Fed Chair Powell who is expected to be at the podium at 9:00 am CDT Friday.\u00a0 The theme?\u00a0 \u201cLabor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”.<\/p>\n
I find Jackson Hole every year has the same effect, Powell by necessity cannot tell us he is going to cut or not going to cut at the next Fed Meeting in September. According to the CME FEDWATCH tool the current probability of a \u00bc bps cut is hovering around 88%. The Fed Has 2 mandates Inflation @ 2% and a stable workforce.\u00a0 If Inflation is above their target 2%, , following the mandate rule, the committee should not cut borrowing rates. If a rate cut is announced, then a rate cut should be taken as the economy is not performing well and needs the lubrication offered by a lower borrowing rate.\u00a0 What is confusing to the layperson is the words of the past don\u2019t match the actions taken. Inconsistency.<\/p>\n
The last 3 Fed Rate reductions were 9\/2024 when the rate of inflation as measured by CPI was 2.9 the month prior. (Hight) Rate moved down \u00bd bps. Next, 11\/2024 when the prior month CPI was 2.6. (Better) Rate moved down \u00bc bps. Finally, 12\/2024 when the prior month CPI was 2.7. (Sameas the past 2 months)\u00a0 Rate reduced an additional \u00bc bps.<\/p>\n
Since the last rate decrease to 4.25-4.5%, the CPI Monthly rates have been as follows: 3.0 (jan \u201925) then each subsequent month 2.8%, 2.4% ,2.3%,2.4% ,2.7% and this Past July ,2.7%. and no new Fed Borrowing rate reductions.<\/p>\n
Tariff impacts are creating volatility in commodity markets for prices moving both up and down. (industrial metals, Orange Juice, Coffee, Grains) the news about China (extending negotiations out another 90 days ) is calming to our many markets. The on again off again nature of the talks has created golden opportunities for breakouts in some markets, rangebound trades in others. (see gold commentary below)<\/p>\n
The Trump-Putin meeting has become the main commodity market news of this week, with analysts speculating about the likelihood of a comprehensive deal and the impacts this could have on oil markets. ICE Brent has been gradually sliding closer to $65 per barrel as lower sanction risks on Russia could further erode the market\u2019s in-built risk premium, however a potential failure in the talks could spark another price rally above $70.\u00a0 Remember that current market drivers for Equities are hard data on Jobs, Inflation, Trump tweets and Geopolitics. There is a high probability the results of the meeting will not be public until after the markets\u2019 close today.<\/p>\n
Three weeks ago,\u00a0I wrote this: Watch for the gold market to maintain its rangebound stance, close below 3350 (basis December) or above 3500 should denote a breakout, begin trading the December(Z) contract next week.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Two weeks ago,\u00a0I wrote:\u00a0 Dec gold traded below 3350 today and the past three days but never closed meaningfully below 3350.0 (3348.60 Thurs.) Today we have breached $3500.00 oz with a high in the $3543.00 area per oz. while currently trading @$3493.00 oz as of this writing. Look for a close above $3500.00 on successive days to again accumulate longs. This may be the break from this range we are looking for. Manage your downside risk according to your account size, risk no more than 15-20% whether with options or futures.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Today, August 15th\u00a0as of this writing that 3500.00 oz did not hold, always wait for confirmation prior to taking a position, several consecutive closes above or below a range is a start. We are teasing the bottom of the range today Dec gold in the 3380\u2019s, I see psychological support @ 3350.00<\/p>\n
Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals, especially with China, India and Russia, remember that Mexico\u2019s extension will end October 29.<\/p>\n
\u00a0Earnings Next Week:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Mon. Quiet<\/li>\n
- Tue.\u00a0 Home Depot, Medtronic, Toll Brothers<\/li>\n
- Wed.\u00a0 TJX Companies, Lowes Analog Devices Inc., Target<\/li>\n
- Thu. Walmart, Intuit, Workday, Ross Stores<\/li>\n
- Fri.\u00a0\u00a0 Quiet<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/p>\n
FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Mon.\u00a0 Quiet<\/li>\n
- Tues.\u00a0 1:10 pm Bowman<\/li>\n
- Wed.\u00a0 10 am Waller, 2 PM Bostic<\/li>\n
- Thu.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Quiet<\/li>\n
- Fri.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9am Fed Chair Powell<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Economic Data week:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Mon.\u00a0 NAHB Housing MKT index.<\/li>\n
- Tue.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bldg Permits, Housing Starts, Redbook,<\/li>\n
- Wed.\u00a0 EIA Crude Stocks, 17-week Bill auction, FOMC Minutes, Jackson Hole begins<\/li>\n
- Thur. Philly Fed, Jobless claims, EIA NAT GAS Storage, S&P PMI Composite, Existing Home sales\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fed Balance sheet, Jackson Hole continues<\/li>\n
- Fri.\u00a0\u00a0Fed Chair Powell<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/3dc00ef7001\/eb23d89b-a6ee-494c-a74a-38b5f4e886e7.png?rdr=true\" "\\"\\"") <\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nInsights into Futures Trading Webinar<\/h1>\nBy Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP<\/h4>\nAdvanta IRA\u2019s Larissa Greene and Ilan Levy-Mayer of Cannon Trading Company break down the basics of futures trading and how it can fit into a self-directed IRA strategy.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Learn what futures trading is, who may not be a good fit for this investment type, and the different ways you can trade futures using your SDIRA funds.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Additionally, Ilan explains the aspects of:<\/p>\n \u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Trading with a broker<\/p>\n \u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Managing trades yourself<\/p>\n \u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Using automated algorithmic trading<\/p>\n \u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Working with a managed account<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Watch the webinar recording below!<\/a><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/web-extract.constantcontact.com\/v1\/thumbnail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FGd5iObmKDDg%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" "\\"\\"") <\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHot Market of the Week<\/h2>\nHot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center,\u00a0A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.<\/p>\n \n\n\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\nWeekly Brazilian Real<\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\nThe weekly Brazilian real chart established a long-term low last fall. Now, on the correction higher, we have activated upside PriceCount objectives to aim for.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/3dc00ef7001\/7137ac51-dcdd-4e85-8ed1-63236a6f847d.png?rdr=true\" "\\"\\"") <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n| \n The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an \u2018exact\u2019 science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. <\/em><\/p>\nIt is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com<\/em><\/p>\nTrading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. <\/em><\/p>\nPast performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBrokers Trading System of the Week<\/h2>\nSwing71PlusIntr v.22L _ Gold GC<\/h1>\nMarkets\u00a0Traded:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Gold Futures GC<\/p>\n System\u00a0Type:\u00a0Day\u00a0Trading<\/p>\n Risk\u00a0per\u00a0Trade:\u00a0varies<\/p>\n Trading\u00a0Rules:\u00a0Partially Disclosed<\/p>\n Suggested Capital:\u00a0$30,000<\/p>\n Developer\u00a0Fee per contract:\u00a0$150 Monthly Subscription<\/p>\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n| <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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<\/p>\n![\"micro\"](\"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Book-Map-Trading.jpg\" "\\"\\"")
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