{"id":23254,"date":"2026-08-24T13:28:03","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T20:28:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/?p=23254"},"modified":"2026-08-24T13:28:03","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T20:28:03","slug":"fixed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/fixed\/","title":{"rendered":"Fixed – Income v Yield: Your Important Futures Trading Guide for August 25th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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At A Glance Levels<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Instrument<\/th>\nS2<\/th>\nS1<\/th>\nPivot<\/th>\nR1<\/th>\nR2<\/th>\n<\/th>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
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Gold (GC)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u2014 Dec. (#GC)<\/td>\n

4613.47<\/td>\n4661.83<\/td>\n4700.17<\/td>\n4748.53<\/td>\n4786.87<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Silver (SI)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u2014 Sept. (#SI)<\/td>\n

67.41<\/td>\n68.13<\/td>\n69.03<\/td>\n69.74<\/td>\n70.64<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Crude Oil (CL)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u2014 Oct. (#CL)<\/td>\n

83.10<\/td>\n84.04<\/td>\n85.31<\/td>\n86.25<\/td>\n87.52<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\u00a0Sept. Bonds (ZB)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u2014 Sept. (#ZB)<\/td>\n

108 15\/32<\/td>\n108 31\/32<\/td>\n109 13\/32<\/td>\n109 29\/32<\/td>\n110 11\/32<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Fixed Income V. Fixed Yield<\/h1>\n

4% for Sure, or Stay in the Game?<\/h1>\n

\"fixed\"<\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/em><\/h3>\n

By Eli Gal Levy, Senior Analyst<\/em><\/h3>\n

Is the risk worth the reward at this point?<\/em><\/h3>\n

The question I keep getting is not about a level. It\u2019s about whether to be in this market at all. Stay invested while indexes print records or take a guaranteed yield in short-term paper and sit this out until it works itself out. It sounds like the conservative choice, and it is \u2014 but conservative is not the same as costless. Every decision in this tape charges you something, including the decision to do nothing.<\/p>\n

Government Backed Fixed Income Instruments<\/em><\/h3>\n

Start with what the safe side actually pays. Short-term government-backed fixed income instruments are yielding between 3.70% and 4.24%, depending on the exact asset class and duration. Move out the curve and the five-year note pays 4.41%, the benchmark ten-year 4.71%. Those numbers are contractual. They don\u2019t depend on anyone\u2019s earnings model, anyone\u2019s target, or anyone\u2019s read of a chart. The catch is that they are also the ceiling.<\/p>\n

Fixed Yield<\/em><\/h3>\n

If you settle for a fixed yield and the market keeps running past that rate, the difference isn\u2019t a paper loss on a statement \u2014 it\u2019s a gain you agreed in advance not to have. And a 4.24% bill sounds like a win until you set it against 3.4% inflation: that\u2019s about eight tenths of a point of actual gain in buying power, and that\u2019s before the IRS takes its cut of it as ordinary income. In a 30% bracket you\u2019re netting under 3%, which is less than the rate prices are climbing.<\/p>\n

Certainty is a perfectly defensible thing to buy. Just be clear that you\u2019re buying it, not getting it for free.<\/em><\/h3>\n

2026 Wall Street Targets<\/em><\/h3>\n

Now the other column. Wall Street\u2019s year-end 2026 targets for the S&P 500 range from 7,500 to 8,400, and the reasoning behind the range has been consistent across the major institutions: continued corporate earnings growth, and artificial intelligence infrastructure investment that keeps confirming itself in orders, capex guidance and backlogs rather than in slide decks. Measured from an index that first traded above 7,800 this month, the top of that range sits roughly eight percent away. That\u2019s the reward the risk-free yield is being weighed against \u2014 and it\u2019s the number that makes locking in 4% feel expensive.<\/p>\n

?<\/h3>\n

Then there\u2019s the other half of the same research. The same desks publishing those targets also mark where a pullback would go looking for a bid: a primary technical support zone between 6,800 and 7,100, which is a standard 10% to 15% correction off the recent record highs. So, the shape of the choice, stated plainly, is something like eight percent of upside to the optimistic target against ten to fifteen percent of downside to the first serious support shelf \u2014 versus a guaranteed low-four handle that surrenders both.<\/p>\n

Anyone telling you that\u2019s an obvious call in either direction is selling you something.<\/em><\/h3>\n

Bonds<\/em><\/h3>\n

What keeps it close rather than settled is the bond market, and that\u2019s where I\u2019ve been spending my time. Yields appear to be resuming their selloff, and the selloff in government bonds has been leaning on the momentum trade \u2014 plausibly because so many AI-linked names sit inside the momentum basket. As those companies have turned to debt financing for a larger share of their capex, higher borrowing costs land directly on the same valuations the bull case depends on.<\/p>\n

AI<\/em><\/h3>\n

That\u2019s the uncomfortable symmetry of this cycle: the AI buildout is simultaneously the earnings story holding the market up and the supply story pressing on the long end. One trade, two bills. High yields and rising rates are bad for earnings growth for the simple reason that they raise corporate interest expense \u2014 and so far, the market hasn\u2019t minded, because we\u2019ve made new all-time highs in the S&P, the Dow and the Russell anyway. How long that indifference lasts is the actual open question, and it\u2019s not one I\u2019m going to pretend to answer.<\/p>\n

VIX<\/em><\/h3>\n

The tape\u2019s own testimony this week was calm to the point of being conspicuous. Volatility stayed subdued, with the VIX falling to an eight-month low. Read one way, that\u2019s confirmation: no stress in the system, credit behaving, participation broadening \u2014 the Russell at a record is the small-cap risk-on signal I follow for exactly this reason, and gold and software both cleared their 200-day. Read the other way, an eight-month low in volatility is a thin cushion, and thin cushions are the condition in which a modest catalyst produces an immodest move. Both readings are honest. Both are live right now.<\/p>\n

And there\u2019s plenty on the calendar to adjudicate it \u2014 PCE midweek, and the biggest name in the AI complex reporting Wednesday after the close. That\u2019s not a prediction. It\u2019s just where the information is.<\/p>\n

Invest or Park?<\/em><\/h3>\n

The framing itself deserves one caveat. The question gets posed as all-or-nothing \u2014 fully invested or fully parked \u2014 and in practice it almost never is. Duration, position size and what you\u2019re willing to hold through a 12% drawdown are separate decisions from whether you own equity risk at all, and they\u2019re the ones that usually determine the outcome.<\/p>\n

So: two columns, both with real numbers in them. On one side, a contractual 3.70% to 4.24% with no drawdown and no opportunity. On the other, a target range that implies high-single-digit upside, a support zone that implies double-digit downside, and a bond market that gets a vote in which one arrives first. I\u2019m not going to hand you a verdict on that, because I don\u2019t have one.<\/p>\n

FINISH READING and VIEW CHARTS<\/a><\/h3>\n

Need help looking at different markets? get some insight from an experienced series 3 broker?<\/em><\/h3>\n

The call is free and we are here to assist – try us!<\/a><\/h3>\n

+310 859 9572<\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Trading Signals on Trading View – FREE Trial<\/a><\/em><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Cannon Edge \u2014 Your Daily Futures Snapshot for August 25th<\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:<\/h3>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Current price and daily % change<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a030\u2011day and 52\u2011week highs\/lows<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0PROPRIETARY Short\u2011term and long\u2011term trend signals<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Coverage across equity indices, metals, energies, currencies, and ags<\/p>\n

Whether you’re scanning for breakout setups, trend reversals, or just staying informed \u2014 Cannon Edge puts the data in your hands before the open.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Built for speed. Backed by insight. Powered by CQG.<\/em><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Daily Levels for August 25th, 2026<\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Economic Reports<\/h3>\n

provided by:\u00a0<\/a>ForexFactory.com<\/a><\/p>\n

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.\u00a0You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Cannon Trading Co., Inc.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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At A Glance Levels Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Gold (GC) \u2014 Dec. (#GC) 4613.47 4661.83 4700.17 4748.53 4786.87 Silver (SI) \u2014 Sept. (#SI) 67.41 68.13 69.03 69.74 70.64 Crude Oil (CL) \u2014 Oct. (#CL) 83.10 84.04 85.31 86.25 87.52 \u00a0Sept. Bonds (ZB) \u2014 Sept. (#ZB) 108 15\/32 108 31\/32 109 13\/32 109 29\/32 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239,234],"tags":[2057,2058],"class_list":["post-23254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-financial-futures","category-trading-guide","tag-fixed-income","tag-fixed-yield"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23254"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23256,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23254\/revisions\/23256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cannontrading.com\/tools\/support-resistance-levels\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}