As I mentioned in previous weeks, we had support at the 100 DMA which we broke and that turned into resistance, the next support zone was the 200 DMA which we broke as well and has now turned into resistance. I have an upward sloping trendline around the 6,500 level which broke as well. Next support I see on my charts are the purple and green Fibonacci numbers you see in my charts.

The SPX is off more than 8% from its highs. Every time WTI ticks up, the market ticks down — as one analyst noted on television this week, every 10% move in oil prices equates to roughly a 50 basis point direct hit to S&P 500 earnings. With WTI back above $100, the arithmetic is punishing. During upcoming earnings calls, one would expect CEO’s guidance to be reduced due to the unknown, elevated cost of energy inputs.

The P/E multiple has compressed from 24 to 19 in a matter of weeks. There is nowhere to hide in this market except energy. The trading outlook is clear: let things sort themselves out, don’t be a hero and call a bottom.

As you can see on the charts, the Nasdaq Composite has broken the upward sloping trendlines I had in place and the 200-DMA which is now acting as resistance. The index closed at 20,948 — down more than 12% from its October peak and firmly in correction territory. Next support zones are visible via the horizontal Fibonacci levels (purple and green). XLY is down 11% from its highs and masking deeper damage: only 15% of XLY stocks are currently above their 50-day moving average, a reading 2 standard deviations below the mean.

If the Semiconductor sector (SOX) starts correcting meaningfully, this market will have a very hard time finding a floor. NVDA — the sector bellwether — broke its key support level at $169.50 this week, a level that had held since September. See the NVDA and SOX sections below for detail.

The Dow Jones has broken below its 200-day moving average — the breadth confirmation Krinsky flagged as additional evidence of a broad market breakdown. The index is now off 10.7% from its February 10 peak, approaching correction threshold. Support zones appear at the horizontal lines (blue, purple and green Fibonacci levels). I also see an upward sloping trendline around 43,660 on the long-term weekly chart. The next major cluster sits at 42,510 if the near-term trendline fails to hold.

The VIX has crossed above 30 — the full institutional stress threshold I flagged last week. A reading of 31.05 suggests elevated investor concern and higher volatility expectations across the tape. The next key level to watch is 36.38; above that the $41.97 area comes into play. The RSI on the VIX itself is approaching 70, suggesting fear sentiment is running hot. The contrarian read remains: when the VIX is this elevated and the S&P RSI is this oversold simultaneously, the probability of a near-term tactical relief bounce is historically elevated — even if the underlying downtrend has not reversed.

Has the market discounted all the bad news? No capitulation move has been seen yet as a confirming signal. There is no visibility in calling a near-term trend reversal. This is a news-flow-driven market.

Crude oil remains the dominant driver of every asset class. The market is trading headline risk, not inventory data. On Friday, WTI surged 5% back to nearly $101/barrel as the market interpreted Trump’s extension of the strike pause — to April 6, at Tehran’s request — as a buying opportunity on oil rather than a reason to de-risk. The logic: if negotiations fail and strikes resume on April 7, the Strait of Hormuz disruption resumes in full force.

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts this week citing tight supply and sustained disruption risk. Upside scenarios of $110–$135 remain in play if the supply disruption persists beyond the April 6 deadline. The broader commodity shock represents what is being described as the biggest supply disruption in history. Key resistance sits at $104.26 on my charts; a break above that level opens the door toward $114.77. On the downside, any credible ceasefire or Hormuz re-opening signal can trigger a reversal — a clean short covering trade — with support at $89–$93.

Gold’s collapse during an active war and energy shock remains one of the defining anomalies of this cycle. The metal has stabilized around $4,521 on the futures chart after its dramatic selloff — the RSI Wilder has recovered to a neutral 50.77, suggesting the worst of the forced liquidation may be behind it. War, oil shock, and inflation fears are textbook triggers for gold strength — yet gold sold off because rising real yields (the 10-year moved to 4.44%), a surging US dollar (DXY testing 100), and forced margin call liquidation overpowered the usual safe-haven bid.

Despite the correction, the long-term structural case remains intact. J.P. Morgan holds a $6,300 year-end 2026 target; Deutsche Bank holds $6,000. 100-day moving average support at $4,150 — a hold there keeps the long-term bull thesis alive. Gold is a dual-driver market: bullish from geopolitics and central bank demand, bearish from higher rates and strong USD. Expect continued two-way volatility.

The significant march higher in yields is the bond market’s way of telling equity markets: this is stagflation, and the Fed will not come to the rescue. Treasury yields continued to rise this week and all three key curve levels were tested simultaneously — 4.0% on the two-year, 4.50% on the ten-year, and 5.0% on the thirty-year. The 10-year yield RSI is at 62.23, approaching overbought on the weekly chart, suggesting yields may pause near these levels — but not reverse without a fundamental catalyst.

Before Operation Epic Fury began, traders were pricing two Fed rate cuts in 2026. Those cuts are now priced to mid-2027 at the earliest. Some participants are even pricing a small probability of a rate hike — unthinkable six weeks ago. The FOMC held at 3.50–3.75% at its March meeting in a hawkish hold, explicitly citing energy-driven inflation upside risks. Every 10% move in oil equates to approximately 50 basis points in direct S&P 500 earnings impact — and oil is up more than 40% since the war began.

The US Dollar has now broken above the critical 100 psychological level, powered by safe-haven demand and a hawkish-repriced Federal Reserve. DXY at 100.193 is testing the $101.797 resistance on my charts — a sustained break above that level would target the 101–103 zone. USD positioning in the COT flipped sharply net long this week, driven by war-driven capital flows and rising energy prices. A strong dollar is a structural headwind for commodities, though that headwind is currently being overwhelmed by the geopolitical risk premium in energy and precious metals.

The two-year DXY chart shows the recovery from the year-to-date lows; the 15-year chart provides longer structural context.

Bitcoin’s long-term chart remains in a secular uptrend despite the risk-off environment, but the current correction has now brought the RSI to 31.47 — approaching the oversold threshold. As a risk asset, BTC is sensitive to rising yields and the Iran conflict. Key Fibonacci support levels: $79,826 (near-term), $75,803, and $71,083 on a deeper correction. The long-term structural floor of $57,829 remains far below current levels. Watch $79,826 as the critical level to hold for the current cycle structure.

If the Semiconductors start correcting meaningfully, this market will have a very hard time finding a floor. NVDA broke its key support at $169.50 this week — a level that had held since September. On my NVDA charts I see an upward-sloping trendline around $165.75 and Fibonacci support to $162.12. If that level fails to hold, additional support zones are visible via the Fib levels and trendlines below on the chart. RSI Wilder is at 35.83 — oversold but not extreme.

For the SOX index, the $6,817–$6,811 zone is the next meaningful support cluster. RSI at 53.98 for the index as a whole suggests there is room for further deterioration before an oversold reading is achieved.

I am watching IGV closely to see if it can hold the February 24 low of $76.26. The ETF closed Friday at $76.89 — just $0.63 above that critical support level. Both the daily and weekly RSI readings are deeply oversold (30.66 and 29.29 respectively), which is the most stretched oversold reading on the weekly chart in several years. A confirmed breakdown below $76.26 would be a bearish signal for the broader technology complex and would likely put additional pressure on the Nasdaq Composite.

Silver is outperforming gold due to its dual industrial demand and safe-haven characteristics. As the higher-beta version of gold, silver offers better momentum trading setups in this environment. On the chart, silver has come off sharply from its cycle high of $121.785 but has found support in the $65–$70 zone. Key Fibonacci levels to watch: see horizontal lines below and above current levels.

The Financials sector ETF (XLF) is a key indicator for the overall market and remains in a downtrend. XLF closed at $47.81, approaching the near-term support at $47.01. The weekly RSI at 33.19 is oversold. Growing stress in private credit is a watch item for Financials. On the longer-term XLF chart you can see the Fibonacci levels for potential support and resistance; the short-term chart continues to show downward momentum with resistance around the 20-DMA. Citi Global Asset Allocation cut equities to neutral Friday — a wait-and-see posture that reflects broader institutional reluctance to add risk in this environment.

Winners since February 28 (war start): Energy (XLE) leads at +22.5% YTD; Defense & Aerospace follows. ▲ LEADER Laggards: Technology at −2.1% YTD. Consumer Discretionary under severe pressure. Only 15% of XLY stocks above 50-DMA. ▼ WATCH

This week was dominated by Middle East escalation, shifting rate expectations, and supply shocks — creating high volatility across energy, metals, and agricultural commodities. The broader commodity shock is being described as the biggest supply disruption in market history. Oil risk premium surged on disruption fears; gold remains bid as a macro hedge; agricultural commodities are showing early-stage rotation as underperformers begin to stir.

Key Cross-Market Signals: (1) Oil spike is raising inflation expectations and reducing the probability of rate cuts. (2) Commodities are entering a high-volatility regime. (3) An early-stage commodity supercycle narrative is emerging — metals, gold, and energy all showing strength driven by supply constraints, the energy transition, and geopolitics (Morgan Stanley). COT positioning: USD flipped sharply net long driven by war capital flows and rising energy prices. Strong dollar is a commodity headwind, but currently overridden by geopolitical risk premium. Key risks to watch: de-escalation → sharp oil drop; Fed/rate expectations shifting; USD strength accelerating; China demand for metals.

This is a holiday-shortened week. Good Friday falls on April 4 — markets will be closed. Critically, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for Friday, April 3. While the print will technically be released, the practical reaction from markets will be delayed to the following Monday. Plan accordingly.

Notable earnings this week include Nike (NKE) on Tuesday — a key consumer sentiment read amid energy-price pressure on households — alongside FactSet Research Systems (FDS), McCormick & Company (MKC), PVH Corp., and nCino (NCNO). Wednesday brings Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston (LW), and RH Inc. Thursday sees Acuity Brands (AYI). Expect CEO guidance commentary to center heavily on cost-of-oil uncertainty and demand visibility. Listen closely to forward guidance language for signals on the earnings revision cycle.

Mon 3/30: AURA, BCAX, FRMI, ICLR, MAZE, PRGS, RZLV, USAR  |  Tue 3/31: NKE, FDS, MKC, CHA, nCino (NCNO), PVH  |  Wed 4/1: CALM, CAG, LW, MSM, NG, RH, UNF  |  Thu 4/2: AYI, ANGO, LNN  |  Fri 4/3: TMQ