U.S. equities closed the week higher, marking the first weekly gain in six weeks, as investors stepped back into risk assets despite the ongoing Iran conflict. The rally came alongside extreme volatility in oil, with crude holding above $100/barrel and briefly spiking higher on geopolitical headlines.

For the first time since the war started, Thursday seemed to be one of the first days that the inverse correlation between the SPX and oil prices was at least being challenged — WTI crude +11%, SPX −0.10%. An encouraging sign for bulls. But if oil prices climb higher next week due to escalation, will stocks remain resilient? That remains to be seen. I view it as: oversold conditions triggered a technical rebound.

After a sharp multi-week selloff, markets were stretched to the downside. Sentiment reached fear-driven extremes, volatility spiked, and positioning became defensive. This created the classic setup for a short-covering rally and tactical bounce, especially as no immediate “worst-case” escalation materialized mid-week. Markets increasingly priced in a contained conflict scenario and no immediate full disruption of global oil flows — even small signs of stabilization were enough to spark buying, as markets had already priced in significant risk.

Investors are positioning ahead of catalysts: inflation data (CPI/PCE), Fed policy signals, the start of earnings season. This creates a “don’t be underexposed” dynamic, helping fuel the rebound. Earnings estimates are increasing — and that is surprising given the risk in the background. The estimate increases have been concentrated in two sectors only, not across-the-board: Materials, Energy, and select Technology.

Credit markets held in. We saw spreads rise a bit but not too much. Notably, March 2026 was the largest issuance of corporate debt on record. That can be interpreted as a positive (demand is there) or as a warning signal (companies may want to take advantage of relatively manageable borrowing costs now to prepare for a bumpy road ahead).

Continuing trend: in previous weeks, we had support at the 100 DMA which we broke and turned into resistance, then the 200 DMA which we broke as well — now acting as resistance. I had an upward sloping trendline around the 6,500 level which broke. Next support zones are the purple and green Fibonacci levels on my charts.

So now what? On Tuesday, we saw a sharp bounce from oversold levels driven by peace rhetoric. Looking at what supported the low we made (6,356 intraweek the prior week), I found on a weekly chart the 50 DMA and some Fibonacci numbers from 2024 — the low made last week is the new support for now. First resistance comes in at the 200 DMA at 6,644 on my charts; on the weekly chart I see first resistance at 6,695. The central question: is this a rally to be shorted? Or have we established a low and will be building upwards from here? That remains to be seen. If I was a betting man, I’d gamble on: the trend is your friend until proven otherwise. The medium trend is down and the long-term trend is still up.

Bear Case (Oversold Rally): The rally is headline-driven and fragile. Oil remains the dominant variable. Markets are still below key technical resistance. If oil continues higher, inflation surprises to the upside, or the war escalates — this rally likely fails and retests lows. Bull Case (Start of Recovery): Markets already priced in a significant amount of fear. Credit markets are not signaling systemic stress. Historical precedent shows geopolitical shocks often don’t derail longer-term bull trends. If indices reclaim key resistance levels next week, this could evolve into a tradable uptrend. What the market is telling you: Right now, markets are sending a split signal — Equities: “Worst-case may be avoided.” Commodities (oil): “Inflation shock is real.” Macro data (early signs): “Pressure is building.” That divergence rarely lasts long.

The S&P 500 is now off roughly 5.67% from its all-time January high. Goldman Sachs holds a 7,600 year-end target on the basis of continued earnings growth. JPMorgan’s near-term downside risk remains 6,000. Key levels: 6,644 (200-DMA, resistance)  ·  6,469 (23% Fib, now potential support)  ·  6,174 (next Fibonacci cluster)  ·  6,000 (Krinsky/JPM downside target)  ·  6,900 (bull recovery signal).

As you can see on the charts, the Nasdaq Composite broke the upward sloping trendlines and the 200-DMA, which now can turn to resistance. Next support zones can be found via the horizontal purple and green Fibonacci numbers. The 38% Fibonacci held and last week’s low is now support. If the rally continues, we want to see the 200-DMA turn into support again.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard naming NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL as potential “legitimate targets” is a new and significant overhang for the tech-heavy Nasdaq that was not present in prior weeks. This geopolitical overhang creates headline risk for the index’s largest weightings. Watch this development closely.

We broke the 200-DMA, which may now serve as resistance when tested on the way up. We have support zones at last week’s low, the horizontal lines — blue, purple, and green Fibonacci levels. I also see an upward sloping trendline around 43,660. The Dow posted one of its biggest single sessions of the year on Tuesday, gaining over 1,100 points (+2.5%) on Trump’s “two-to-three weeks” statement, then surrendered much of that ground as the diplomatic picture clouded by Thursday’s close (-61 points).

Keeping an eye on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which was over 31 last week — the full institutional stress threshold. This week it compressed sharply to 23.87, reflecting the relief rally. In order for the market to truly calm down, I would like to see the VIX trading below the 50-DMA and then the 200-DMA. At 23.87 we are approaching but not yet below the 200-DMA level. The contrarian read: when the VIX drops this fast from an extreme, it can signal the market is “over-relieved” relative to the underlying geopolitical reality. If escalation resumes after the April 6 deadline, VIX will reassert itself above 28–30 rapidly.

Thursday was the first day that oil was up and the SPX wasn’t down like in previous trading sessions since the start of the war. What jumps at me in the Daily chart is that the RSI went below 70 and now came back up to 70, which can serve as resistance on oil itself.

Oil remains the master variable for every asset class. WTI pressed against key horizontal resistance near $110/barrel, forming an ascending triangle on the short-term chart — a flat ceiling with rising trendline lows, suggesting buying pressure building beneath the surface. A decisive breakout above $110 opens the door toward $114–$119. Rejection sends WTI back toward the rising trendline support at $95–$97.

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts citing tight supply and disruption risk. Upside scenarios of $110–$135 remain in play if the supply disruption persists beyond the April 6 deadline. The IEA warned that April’s oil supply crunch will be twice as bad as March’s. The market is still trading headline risk, not inventory data. The EIA crude inventory build of +5.5 million barrels (week ending March 27) was effectively ignored in the face of Hormuz disruption fears.

Oil Shock Still Building: oil above $110 is already feeding into inflation. A prolonged disruption could push prices dramatically higher — worst-case scenarios suggest recession risk if supply remains constrained. Logistics, fuel, and food costs are rising globally; companies are beginning to pass through costs. This complicates the Fed’s ability to ease.

If you read our pre-market daily briefings, Goldman Sachs gave a full bull case for gold this week. My two cents: we can see resistance around the $5,044–$5,300 area, and until that area isn’t cleared and supported, I don’t see any reason to hang my hat with Goldman at this point in time.

Gold jumped 2% to open Q2 on Tuesday as Trump hinted at an Iran ceasefire. The metal recovered to ~$4,702 on the futures chart, up from $4,521 the prior week — but still well off its cycle high above $5,200. Gold’s anomalous selloff during an active war and energy shock remains one of the defining puzzles of this cycle: rising real yields (10-year at 4.44% during the selloff), a surging US dollar (DXY testing 100), and forced margin call liquidation overpowered the usual safe-haven bid. The structural bull thesis remains intact — J.P. Morgan $6,300 year-end, Deutsche Bank $6,000. The 100-day moving average support at $4,150 — a hold there keeps the long-term bull thesis alive.

Last week I wrote that the significant march higher in yields is probably the bond market’s way of telling equity markets: this is stagflation, and the Fed won’t come to the rescue and cut rates. This week, Treasury yields took a breather — the 10-year pulled back to 4.31% as peace rhetoric temporarily lifted spirits and rate-cut pricing edged back slightly. Sometimes my charts even surprise me as to how accurate they can be at identifying these turning points.

The US Dollar held near the psychologically important 100 level, ending the week roughly flat at 100.15 despite the equity relief rally. The dollar is caught between competing forces: safe-haven demand and hawkish rate expectations support it, while any credible peace signal would reduce the war-related capital flows that drove it higher. DXY at 100.15 continues to test resistance at $101.797 on my charts. USD COT positioning remains sharply net long, driven by war-driven capital flows and rising energy prices. A strong dollar is a structural headwind for commodities, though currently overwhelmed by the geopolitical risk premium in energy and metals.

Bitcoin continued its decline this week, falling to ~$67K from ~$81K the prior week, confirming its behavior as a pure risk asset correlated to equity sentiment. As the war narrative shifted from “rally on peace hopes” to “uncertainty re-emerges,” Bitcoin followed equities on the downside but did not participate meaningfully in the Tuesday relief rally. BTC holds steady around $67K with concerns remaining over an escalation in Iran. Watch $65,830 as the near-term critical support level. The long-term secular bull structure remains intact with the structural floor far below at $57,829.

If the Semiconductors start correcting meaningfully, this market will have a very hard time finding a floor. Last week I wrote: NVDA broke support at $169.50 which held since September; I see an upward sloping trendline around $165.75 and Fibonacci supports to $162. This week I am pointing out that NVDA held the upward sloping trendline support zone and the SOX Semiconductor Index held its ground — let’s see how this plays out going forward.

I am watching IGV closely to see if it can hold the February 24 low of $76.26. The ETF bounced this week along with the broader tech rally; the daily and weekly RSI readings were deeply oversold heading in. A confirmed breakdown below $76.26 would be a bearish signal for the broader technology complex and would likely put additional pressure on the Nasdaq Composite. The relief rally gives bulls a chance to regroup — but the Feb 24 low remains the line in the sand.

I see a head-and-shoulder formation and a bear flag forming, but I also see a downward trendline that was penetrated to the upside this week. Silver is offering mixed technical signals simultaneously — the bearish formations suggest caution while the trendline break offers a potential bullish setup. Silver continues to outperform gold in momentum terms due to its dual industrial demand and safe-haven characteristics. The energy transition and manufacturing demand provide a structural floor. Monitor the trendline break carefully — if it holds, silver becomes the higher-beta opportunity in the metals complex.

This week across commodities futures markets was defined by escalating and then temporarily de-escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, shifting interest rate expectations, and emerging supply-side concerns. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is reaching all-time highs. Cattle futures approaching highs. Soybeans consolidating. Rough rice at the 200-DMA.

Key Cross-Market Signals: (1) Oil spike raises inflation expectations and reduces rate-cut probability. (2) Commodities entering high-volatility regime. (3) Early-stage commodity supercycle narrative building — metals, gold, energy all showing strength from supply constraints, energy transition, and geopolitics. COT: USD remains sharply net long from war capital flows. Strong dollar is a commodity headwind but currently overridden by geopolitical risk premium. Key risks: de-escalation → sharp oil drop; Fed/rate expectations shifting; USD strength accelerating; China demand for metals.

The week delivered a high-impact, data-rich backdrop against a backdrop of wild diplomatic swings.

The week opens with markets absorbing two compressed catalysts simultaneously: the Good Friday NFP (+178K, much stronger than expected) that could not be traded Friday, and whatever the April 6 Iran ceasefire deadline resolves to. Monday April 7 could be one of the most volatile opens of the quarter. CPI on Thursday April 9 is the week’s highest-impact scheduled release — arriving into a market already wrestling with the ISM Prices Index surging to 78.3 and oil above $100.

The major banks kick off Q1 earnings season this week — one of the most watched reporting periods in recent memory given the geopolitical and macro backdrop. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley report Friday April 10. Expect CEO commentary to center on: loan demand softening, trading revenue from war volatility, energy-sector exposure, credit quality in a slowing growth environment, and forward guidance on the impact of tariffs and oil prices. Listen closely for any commentary on credit tightening, private credit stress (Blue Owl flagged elevated redemption requests), and guidance on the earnings revision cycle. Any downward revisions to guidance will confirm the bear case; resilience will fuel the nascent relief rally.

Mon 4/6: Quiet  |  Tue 4/7: Early reporters  |  Wed 4/8: Pre-bank season  |  Thu 4/9: Delta Air Lines (DAL) — key energy cost read  |  Fri 4/10: JPM, WFC, MS — Q1 2026 bank earnings season opens