If you recall how we started this year, we spoke about high volatility — that trend continues. The range between the recent high and low is wide, reflecting persistent uncertainty. Capital has rotated back into semiconductors, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) pushing to fresh all-time highs. At the same time, software has come under pressure — the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) trades at its lowest levels since October 2023, reflecting renewed concerns around AI-driven disruption.

Despite ongoing macro uncertainty, the broader market has shown notable resilience, particularly in its willingness to buy dips. This behavior appears supported by: upward revisions in S&P 500 EPS growth expectations, continued confidence in the long-term AI growth story, and investor parallels to past geopolitical shocks — Ukraine, prior tariff episodes — which ultimately saw markets recover.

While the March 30 low of 6,316 in the SPX may prove to be a near-term bottom, uncertainty remains elevated and a cautious approach is still warranted. Looking ahead, Q1 earnings season begins with the major banks early in the week. Corporate guidance will be closely watched, though geopolitical uncertainty may limit visibility if companies opt for a more cautious tone.

S&P 500 — SPX

Wow, what a week — every day was up except for Friday. Every resistance level was taken out but the last Fibonacci number on the charts, and that’s how volatile these markets are. Next supports can be found at the moving averages, but I am not relying on anything after what I saw last week, having lived through the .com bubble. Don’t forget to assess risk and use stops.

Nasdaq Composite — COMP

As you can see on the charts, the Index found support around the 38% retracement per Fibonacci levels and now has resistance at the 100 DMA on the daily chart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average — DJI

DOW found support at the blue support line on the charts around the 45,000 level.

VIX — Volatility Index

Keeping an eye on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). In order for the market to calm down, I would like to see the VIX trading below the 50, staying there, and then below the 200 DMA.

Crude Oil WTI — CL

Crude oil prices pulled back from recent highs as markets reacted to ceasefire developments and a temporary easing of immediate supply disruption fears. Price action is transitioning from headline-driven spikes to more technical consolidation. Markets are attempting to price a lower probability of immediate disruption while still embedding a residual risk premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Lower highs forming after sharp upside extensions; increased mean-reversion and range-bound trading conditions.

Gold — GC

If you read my pre-market daily briefing, Goldman Sachs gave a whole bull case for gold. My 2 cents: I can see resistance around the 5,044–5,300 area. Until that area isn’t cleared and supported, I don’t see any reason to hang my hat with Goldman at this point in time. Gold experienced consolidation following prior strength, as safe-haven flows moderated alongside easing geopolitical fears. Continued underlying support from central bank demand and macro uncertainty keeps the longer-term bias Neutral to Bullish.

Fixed Income — 10-Year Treasury Yield

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the significant march higher in yields — probably the bond market suggesting to equity markets that this is stagflation, that the Fed won’t come to the rescue and cut rates. This week Treasury yields took a breather. Sometimes my charts even surprise me as to how accurate they can be — if you understand what you’re seeing, enjoy trading off these levels. If you need help, you can always reach out.

US Dollar Index — DXY

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to be shaped by the interplay between geopolitical risk premium compression and macro expectations. Currency strength remains a key variable balancing commodity markets and Federal Reserve rate trajectory expectations.

Bitcoin — BTC

Bitcoin continues to reflect the broader risk-on / risk-off dynamic. Watch key support and resistance levels on the chart as geopolitical and macro headlines continue to drive cross-asset volatility.

Futures

Last week I wrote: Bloomberg Commodity INDEX is reaching all-time highs (we hit that resistance level and sold off). Cattle futures approaching highs (seems like it’s breaking out — remains to be seen if it’s a false breakout). Soybean is consolidating (now trying to take out resistance). Rough rice at 200 DMA (tried to break out and failed for now).

ETF — IGV Software

Look to see if IGV holds the last low from February 24 at $76.26 — that low was taken out. Next support zone: $74.38. Software has come under meaningful pressure as the IGV trades at its lowest levels since October 2023, reflecting renewed concerns around AI-driven disruption.

Silver Futures — SI

I see a head and shoulder formation and a bear flag forming, but I also see a downward trendline that was penetrated to the upside. Silver maintained relative strength despite broader consolidation in precious metals, supported by its dual exposure to industrial demand and monetary flows. Its higher beta profile leads to amplified moves in both directions — Bias: Bullish, relative strength intact.

Semiconductors — SOX

SOX broke all-time resistance, but the RSI isn’t confirming the move. Let’s see how this plays out going forward.

NVIDIA — NVDA

NVDA held the upward sloping trendline support zone. Watch price behavior around key support and resistance as earnings season unfolds and geopolitical headlines continue to provide directional catalyst.

Macro Theme: De-escalation Headlines vs. Persistent Structural Risk

This week across commodities futures markets was characterized by a sharp shift in narrative — from peak geopolitical escalation toward tentative de-escalation signals — while underlying risks remain unresolved. Markets began repricing extreme risk premiums, particularly in energy, even as macro uncertainty and policy expectations continue to drive cross-asset volatility.

Key Cross-Market Signals

1. Risk Premium Compression — Energy markets actively repricing lower immediate geopolitical risk; however, incomplete resolution keeps a residual premium embedded.

2. Transition in Volatility Regime — Shift from extreme event-driven spikes toward controlled but elevated volatility. Increased focus on technical levels and positioning.

3. Macro vs. Geopolitical Balance — Markets rebalancing between geopolitical developments, interest rate expectations, and currency strength.