If you recall how we started this year, we spoke about high volatility — that trend seems to be continuing. Investors stepped back into risk assets this week despite the ongoing Iran conflict being resolved in market pricing. The economic calendar was light. The one notable print was March PPI, which came in well below estimates. Tech again showed relative strength, in both AI infrastructure names and software. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) is trading at fresh all-time highs, and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Select ETF (IGV) gained 15% on the week. Big banks kicked things off on an encouraging note — both on results and forward commentary.

Wow, what a week. Every resistance level was taken out. The only resistance I have left are some trendlines on the SPX chart. Next supports can be found at a retest of the prior all-time high and the moving averages. I emphasize: don’t forget to assess risk and use stops.

The index closed the week at 7,126.06 — just under the intraweek high of 7,147.52 and the prior ATH zone near 7,002.28. Price has reclaimed the 50-DMA (~6,857), the 200-DMA (~6,684), and every horizontal resistance I had drawn on the chart from the March/April selloff. RSI is now at 73.18 — stretched, but momentum like this can remain stretched longer than most traders expect.

Same story as the SPX — every resistance level was taken out. The only resistance I have left are some trendlines on the chart. Next supports can be found at a retest of the last all-time high (~24,020) and the moving averages. The April low near 20,526 (38.2% Fib) held cleanly and the index has now pushed back into fresh-high territory, confirming the tech bid is back.

DOW found support at the blue support line I had drawn on my charts around the 45,000 level. Next resistance is the all-time high at 50,513. Supports can be found at the moving averages and the trendlines posted on the chart — in particular the 200-DMA near 46,964, which has now been reclaimed and should be watched as first support on any pullback.

Keeping an eye on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). In order for the market to truly calm down, I wanted to see the VIX trading below the 50-DMA — and staying there — and then below the 200-DMA. Both boxes are now checked. VIX is printing 17.48 at last close, having compressed from a 31-handle peak in late March. As long as VIX holds below the 200-DMA (~20.37), the path of least resistance for equities remains up.

As you can see on my chart, the levels I drew out a few weeks ago are playing out perfectly — they are acting as support and resistance zones based on where price is coming from. Crude is down roughly 12% on the week, with the $119 war spike a distant memory and price now hovering near the $85.62 handle. The 50-DMA at ~$97 acted as resistance on the way down and the 61.8% Fib at ~$79.62 has emerged as the next support zone. A loss of $79 puts the 200-DMA near $67.53 back in play.

Gold is trading very nicely off my red support and resistance levels. Price is pinned between the resistance zone at $5,044–$5,300 above and a layered support cluster at $4,683 (50-DMA) / $4,462 (Fib) below. The longer-term 200-DMA at $4,220 remains the structural line-in-the-sand. Until the $5,044–$5,300 zone is reclaimed and held, gold is a range trade — play the levels.

Three weeks ago I wrote that the significant march higher in yields was probably the bond market suggesting to the equity markets that this may be stagflation — that the Fed won’t come to the rescue and cut rates. This week, Treasury yields took a breather, with the 10-year pulling back toward 4.32% from the cycle highs. Sometimes my charts even surprise me as to how accurate they can be. If you understand what you’re seeing, enjoy trading off these levels — and if you need help you can always reach out, I will be more than happy to help you understand what I’m looking at.

Chart is showing support at the Fib support lines I drew out a few months ago and at an upward sloping trendline. DXY at 98.10 is resting right on that support cluster between 97.57 and 97.93. A loss of that zone opens the door toward the 95.55 cycle low; a bounce from here keeps 100.75–101.80 in sight as the upside pivot.

Chart is showing resistance at the 100-DMA and at the Fibonacci number at $79,826. Support was found in the $61,000–$65,000 area — that zone held cleanly during the most recent flush. Until BTC reclaims and holds above $79,826, this is still a counter-trend bounce within a broader corrective structure from the $127K ATH.

Two weeks ago I wrote: the Bloomberg Commodity Index is reaching all-time highs (we hit that resistance level and sold off). Cattle futures approaching highs — seems like they’re breaking out, remains to be seen if it’s a false breakout; we broke the high and pulled back to the 20-DMA. Soybeans are still consolidating. Rough rice approaching resistance at 11.44.

IGV holds the support zone at $74.38 I pointed out to you in previous weeks. Next resistance is $88.23. The ETF ripped roughly 15% on the week — one of the strongest relative performances in the market, and a major contributor to the broader tech bid.

I see a head-and-shoulders formation and a bear flag forming on silver, but I also see a downward trendline that was penetrated to the upside. That’s the tension right now — bearish chart patterns on one hand, bullish trendline break on the other. If silver can hold above the broken trendline on any retest, the bullish signal wins; a failure back below reopens the H&S target.

The SOX broke all-time resistance, but the RSI has not yet confirmed the move. A non-confirming RSI on a breakout is something to respect — it doesn’t invalidate the breakout, but it does mean the move needs follow-through buying to stick. Watch for either an RSI push higher that confirms, or an RSI divergence that warns of exhaustion.

Price has ripped from the March 30 lows near $7,000 to a fresh all-time high of $9,612 intraweek, closing near $9,538. First support on any pullback is the prior resistance shelf at $8,498 — if that flips to support cleanly on a retest, the breakout is confirmed structurally regardless of what RSI does. Below that, the 50-DMA zone ~$8,137 and prior pivot $7,794 become the next floors.

This week I am pointing out that NVDA held the upward sloping trendline support zone and the SOX semiconductor index held its ground and made new all-time highs. Let’s see how this plays out going forward.

NVDA held the upward sloping trendline support zone — exactly where I flagged it — and bounced hard back toward $200+. The trendline hold keeps the uptrend intact; a loss of the trendline re-opens the $181.99 / $165.77 supports below.

Monday April 20: Steel Dynamics (STLD), AGNC Investment (AGNC), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Bank of Hawaii (BOH), Alexandria Real Estate (ARE), Zions Bancorp (ZION).

Tuesday April 21 — Before the Open: GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), RTX (RTX), 3M (MMM), Halliburton (HAL), Danaher (DHR), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Genuine Parts (GPC), Equifax (EFX), Northern Trust (NTRS), Northrop Grumman (NOC), D.R. Horton (DHI), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Lockheed Martin (LMT). After the Close: Tesla (TSLA — moved), Capital One (COF), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), United Airlines (UAL), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Tractor Supply (TSCO).

Wednesday April 22 — Before the Open: Boeing (BA), AT&T (T), Philip Morris (PM), CME Group (CME), Boston Scientific (BSX), Elevance Health (ELV), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), GE Vernova (GEV), Teledyne (TDY), Kinder Morgan (KMI), CSX (CSX), United Rentals (URI), Raymond James (RJF), Crown Castle (CCI), Packaging Corp (PKG), Southwest Airlines (LUV). After the Close: Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Vertiv (VRT).

Thursday April 23 — Before the Open: American Airlines (AAL), American Express (AXP), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Honeywell (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Blackstone (BX), Southwest Gas, Teck Resources (TECK). After the Close: Intel (INTC), KLA Corp (KLAC), T-Mobile (TMUS), Gilead Sciences (GILD).

Friday April 24 — Before the Open: Procter & Gamble (PG), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Centene (CNC), Phillips 66 (PSX), Schlumberger (SLB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB).

Heaviest day by volume is Wednesday — TSLA plus mega-caps across industrials, tech and telecom.

Macro Theme: Stabilization in Headlines, Repricing of Growth & Policy Expectations

This week across commodities futures markets marked a continuation of stabilization in geopolitical narratives, but with a clear shift toward macro-driven pricing — particularly around interest rate expectations, global growth signals, and currency dynamics. While last week focused on de-escalation, this week evolved into repositioning, as markets begin reassessing: the durability of global demand, the trajectory of central bank policy (especially the Federal Reserve), and the implications of a still-firm US Dollar.

Key Macro Observations

• Energy markets stabilized after prior risk premium compression, with volatility continuing to normalize.
• Precious metals faced renewed pressure from rates and dollar strength.
• Agricultural commodities maintained constructive rotation with improving participation.
• Industrial metals showed early signs of demand sensitivity rather than purely structural strength.

Positioning & Flow (COT Insight)

Recent positioning trends indicate continued normalization: the US Dollar remains firm (broad headwind), defensive positioning continues to unwind across commodities, and flows are rotating toward selective opportunities rather than broad commodity exposure. Markets are becoming more discriminatory and asset-specific — macro inputs (rates, FX, growth) are regaining dominance over geopolitical drivers.

Key Cross-Market Signals

• Completion of the initial risk-premium reset — energy markets have largely repriced geopolitical extremes; remaining premium is now structural, not speculative.
• Reassertion of macro drivers — rates, currency strength and growth expectations are back in control; commodities re-synchronizing with broader macro assets.
• Transition to selective trends — broad commodity beta is fading; opportunities shifting toward sector-specific and relative-value trades.

Risks to Monitor (Upcoming Week)

• Any renewed geopolitical escalation that could reintroduce energy risk premium.
• Policy signals from the Federal Reserve.
• Direction of the US Dollar (continuation vs. pullback).
• China demand data and industrial activity indicators.
• Weather developments impacting agricultural supply.