Risk-on stayed risk-on. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq printed fresh all-time highs again on Friday, with the SPX closing the week at 7,165.08 and the Nasdaq Composite at 24,836.60. That makes it four consecutive weekly gains for both indices — the longest streak we have seen since Q4 of 2024. The Dow was the odd one out, slipping about 0.4% on the week and snapping its own three-week run higher. The Russell 2000 also tagged a new all-time high. So we now have the SPX, Nasdaq, and Russell all sitting at records at the same time, which is a tape worth respecting whether you like the valuation or not.

Last week I told you to keep an eye on the Magnificent 7 because they had not yet put in new highs and the index would need that horsepower to power through. This week the leadership came from a slightly different corner — semiconductors did the heavy lifting. The PHLX Semiconductor Index extended its winning streak to 18 straight sessions, the longest run on record, and is up roughly 38–45% over that stretch. Friday alone, Intel jumped over 23% on a blowout earnings print and finally cleared its dot-com era 2000 peak — the stock’s biggest one-day move since 1987. AMD added almost 14% on the same session. Nvidia reclaimed the $5 trillion market cap mark. Bespoke pointed out that semis alone are responsible for roughly 40% of the S&P 500’s 12.8% rally since March 30. That is concentration, and it is something to keep in the back of your mind.

VIX closed at 18.71, drifting back toward the high end of its recent range but still well-behaved. The trade I have been talking about for months — high realized volatility around major macro events with quick, sharp reversals — has not gone anywhere. We have just been getting it on the upside lately.

Crude actually rallied — WTI was up roughly 13% on the week before easing slightly Friday into the mid-$90s, and Brent flirted with the $100 level. The reason is straightforward: the ceasefire framework looks more fragile than it did seven days ago. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian shipping is still in place, the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, and on Saturday President Trump abruptly cancelled the planned Witkoff and Kushner trip to Pakistan for a second round of negotiations, saying any further talks would be handled by phone.

Equities have largely shrugged this off so far. The market is still pricing the conflict as a contained, energy-channel risk rather than a broad growth shock. That can change in a hurry. If you are long energy, this is a tailwind you did not have last week. If you are long the broad market, this is a risk you should be at least aware of, even if it has not bitten yet.

We are about a quarter of the way through Q1 reporting and the numbers are doing the work. Per FactSet, 28% of the S&P 500 has reported. The blended Q1 earnings growth rate has climbed to roughly 14.5–16% year over year, depending on whose data you use, and is on pace for a sixth straight quarter of double-digit growth. More than 80% of reporters have beaten on the bottom line and somewhere in the high-60s to low-80s on revenues. The estimate beat magnitude is running above five-year averages.

Forward 12-month P/E is now around 20.9, which is a premium to both the 5-year (19.9) and 10-year (18.9) averages. Translation: the market is not cheap, but the earnings story is supporting the multiple — at least for now. Q2 estimates are creeping up rather than getting cut, which is the opposite of what we usually see this time in a quarter.

Inside tech, something interesting happened this week that did not get a lot of attention. While the SOX was on its historic 18-day streak, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) was actually down a hair on the week and pulled back to its 50-day moving average. That is the opposite of last week’s setup, when software was leading and chips were catching up. The good news: IGV held the 50-day so the tape is not breaking, just rotating.

Strap in. This is one of the loaded weeks of the year:

• Wednesday, April 29 — FOMC rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, Powell press conference at 2:30 p.m. Markets are pricing a hold at 3.50–3.75%, with virtually zero chance of a move. This will likely be Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair — his term ends in May, and on Friday the DOJ dropped its criminal investigation into him, removing the last major obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the next Chair. Watch the wording on inflation persistence and the timing of any future cuts. CME’s FedWatch is now showing a roughly 39% chance of at least a 25-bp cut by December, up from 23% the prior session.
• Wednesday, April 29 — Q1 GDP advance read in the morning. Consensus is for solid growth despite the energy shock.
• Wednesday after the close — Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all report on the same night. Their combined index weight is roughly 25% of the S&P 500. This is the AI-capex stress test.
• Thursday, April 30 — March Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, before the open. After the close, Apple reports.
• Other central banks — Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and the ECB are all on the calendar this week as well.
• Energy heavyweights Exxon and Chevron also report, alongside Visa, Mastercard, and the major U.S. carriers.

There are roughly 180 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. Five of the seven Mag 7. The Fed. Q1 GDP. Core PCE. And an Iran negotiation that could go in any direction at any moment. If you trade event volatility, this is your week. If you do not, size accordingly.

• SPX has been above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since April 8. The 50-day has been above the 200-day since July of 2025. The trend structure is clean and bullish on a long-term basis, but very stretched as can be seen on RSI.
• Last week I noted the only meaningful resistance left on my chart was the long-term trendline on the SPX. Price has now traded at that level and the index has spent the week consolidating just below it, which I read as a strong tape.
• RSI on the daily was at 73 a week ago — overbought. Some of that has cooled with this week’s sideways grind, but we are still in elevated territory. Overbought conditions can persist in strong trends; they just raise the cost of being wrong.
• Breadth is improving but is still not where it was in January. Per Bloomberg, percent of SPX members above their 200-day SMA is around 58.7%, up modestly from 56.7% the prior Friday. Russell 2000 breadth improved to 62.2%. Better, not great. The mega caps are still doing more than their share.

Every resistance level was taken out. The only resistance I have are some trendlines. Next supports can be found at a retest of the last all-time high and the moving averages.

DOW found support at the blue support line I had on my charts around the 45,000 level. Next resistance is the all-time highs; supports can be found at the moving averages and trendlines I posted on the chart.

Keeping an eye on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). In order for the market to calm down I would like to see the VIX continuing to trade below the 50- and then the 200-DMA. VIX at 18.71 keeps the door open for further upside, but it is no longer at the levels (sub-15) where you would call it complacent.

As you see on my chart the levels I have drawn out a few weeks ago are playing out perfectly — they are acting as support and resistance zones based on where price is coming from.

Gold is trading very nicely off my red support and resistance levels. I see some consolidation forming.

Three weeks ago, I wrote that the significant march higher in yields is probably the bond market suggesting to the equity markets that this may be stagflation — that the Fed won’t come to the rescue and cut rates. This week Treasury went up a bit and I see a bull flag forming on the 3-month chart using the weekly time frame.

Sometimes my charts even surprise me as to how accurate they can be, so if you understand what you’re seeing, enjoy trading off these levels. If you need help, you can always reach out and I will be more than happy to help you understand what I am looking at.

Chart is showing support at the FIB support lines — 38% I drew out a few months ago. (If 38% is supported that’s usually a bullish sign.) Combined with the upward sloping trendline, this is constructive.

I’ve been showing you this level for a few weeks now. Chart is showing resistance at the 100-DMA and a FIB# at $79,826. (That level was hit this morning and held.) Support was found in the $61,000–$65,000 area.

Two weeks I wrote: Bloomberg commodity index is reaching all-time highs. (We hit that resistance level and sold off, now they are trying to break through again.) Cattle futures approaching highs. (Seems like it’s breaking out, remains to be seen if it’s a false breakout — we broke the high and pulled back into the 20-DMA.) Soybean is still consolidating. Rough rice approaching resistance at 11.44. OAT — started moving.

IGV holds the support zone $74.38 I pointed out to you in previous weeks. Next resistance $88.23 (held the line).

I see a head and shoulders formation and a bear flag forming, but I also see a downward trendline that was penetrated to the upside. Two patterns competing — let the market decide which one wins.

SOX at a 30-year high. Read into that what you want. Semis lead at inflection points, both up and down.

Last week I was pointing out that NVDA held the upward sloping trendline support zone and the SOX held its ground and made new all-time highs. This week I point to the fact that NVDA is near all-time highs and MAGS 7 all-time high is $69.14, so there is room to run here — and if that happens it can push the SPX even higher. Let’s see how this plays out going forward.

The single highest-impact week of the quarter. FOMC Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET with Powell’s presser at 2:30. Q1 GDP advance Wednesday morning. Core PCE Thursday. NFP Friday closes it out. ~180 S&P 500 companies report alongside.

Five of the seven Mag 7 print this week alongside ~180 other S&P 500 names. The single most concentrated earnings catalyst of the year — combined index weight of MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and AAPL is roughly 25% of the S&P 500. This is the AI-capex stress test the entire Q1 narrative has been building toward.

Key macro observations — energy markets remain stable but lack directional expansion; precious metals continue to face macro headwinds with weaker rally attempts; industrial metals show clearer signs of growth sensitivity; and agricultural commodities are the only segment maintaining constructive trend development.

Positioning & Flow (COT Insight)

Positioning trends now reflect a more mature macro regime. The US dollar remains firm, continuing to pressure commodities broadly. Long exposure is becoming more selective rather than thematic. Weak hands have largely exited crowded trades. Markets are no longer unwinding extremes — they are building new positioning structures. Capital is rotating based on relative strength, not macro beta.

Key Cross-Market Signals

• Volatility compression in energy — oil entering a coiled state; future expansion likely but no clear direction yet.
• Precious metals losing leadership — gold and silver no longer acting as primary hedges; macro headwinds dominating flows.
• Growth sensitivity emerging — copper and cyclicals reacting more directly to macro data; less tolerance for weak signals.
• Agriculture as relative outperformance — clear rotation into ags; one of the few sectors with clean trend structure.

Risks to Monitor (Upcoming Week)

• Any shift in tone or policy expectations from the Federal Reserve
• Directional move in the US dollar (breakout vs. reversal)
• China macro data and stimulus signals
• Any re-emergence of geopolitical risk (currently suppressed)
• Weather volatility impacting agricultural supply expectations