The cornerstone of this whole construct remains the AI infrastructure build-out, and the make-or-break moment for tech earnings was, in the panel’s consensus, a make. Hyperscalers — Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta — collectively have roughly $700 billion of CapEx on the table for the year, and this week’s prints didn’t just confirm the spend, they extended it into 2027. The mid-week pullback on the WSJ report that OpenAI had missed some internal growth targets was over almost before it started. CapEx is doing exactly what bulls said it would do — flowing out of NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, Micron, Astera, AMAT, Arm, Qualcomm, Intel and into power, turbines, construction and the broader industrial economy. Texas data center construction crews are reportedly sold out. Bloom Energy, Generac, Seagate and NXP all rallied on the back of strong AI-adjacent results and guidance. The relief rally since the March 30 lows is being underwritten by two things at once: the AI infrastructure theme and rising EPS growth estimates for the index as a whole — with Bitcoin coming off the $60K lows and chasing $80K, which has historically tracked retail risk appetite. Every 10–20% drawdown since 2020 has been bought.

Apple deserves its own beat. The stock got within 1% of a fresh all-time high this week on a clean quarter — iPhone slightly below expectations but robust, China rebounded 28%, the company announced a $100 billion buyback and a dividend hike, and incoming CEO John Ternus called the road map ahead the most exciting he’s seen in 25 years at the firm. The fact that the iPhone print took a backseat to everything else is the story. The point: the AI build-out is no longer just a Nvidia/hyperscaler trade — it’s broadening into the rest of mega-cap tech and into the industrials and energy plays that have to physically build the thing.

SPX has been above the 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages since April 8. The trend structure is clean and bullish on a long-term basis, but very stretched as can be seen on RSI. Next resistance is a trendline I have around 7,380 and support is at the 20-DMA near 7,002. SPX is sitting roughly 5.5% above its 50-DMA — while a market this stretched doesn’t have to mean revert all the way back, it rarely just keeps grinding higher without some consolidation.

I would also keep an eye on S&P equal weight to see if it can break to a fresh all-time high — that’s the breadth confirmation the bulls want.

Every resistance level was taken out. The only resistance I have left are some trendlines around 26,200. Next supports can be found at a retest of the last all-time high near 24,020 and the moving averages. The Nasdaq Composite just had its best April on record — the move has been driven by the AI infrastructure theme, broadening earnings strength, and the hyperscaler CapEx confirmation. Tech earnings growth is in the 40s and consensus full-year 2026 estimates have stair-stepped up to 19% from a 15% start.

DOW found support at the blue support line I had drawn on my charts around the 45,000 level — the cycle low printed at 45,057, right on the line. Next resistance is the all-time high at 50,513. Supports can be found at the moving averages and the trendlines posted on the chart.

Keeping an eye on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). In order for the market to calm down I wanted to see the VIX continuing to trade below the 50- and then the 200-DMA. VIX at 16.99 keeps the door open for further upside in equities — but it is no longer at the levels (sub-15) where you’d call it complacent. The market is pricing more risk than it was at the cycle low.

As you see on my chart, the levels I drew out a few weeks ago are playing out perfectly — they’re acting as support and resistance zones based on where price is coming from. WTI closed at $102.50, having reclaimed the $100 handle and the 50-DMA near $96.71. The recent high of $119.48 still looms above and the $94.84 / $87.23 levels stand as deeper supports if we get a pullback. Oil is the wild card heading into May — the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved and President Trump’s tone on Iran has been escalating rather than de-escalating. With oil already back above $100, that’s exactly the kind of exogenous pressure that gives an extended, narrowly-led market the excuse it doesn’t really need to take a breather.

Gold is trading very nicely off my red support and resistance levels. I pointed out that I saw some consolidation forming — well, we broke that support a bit. GC at $4,621 is sitting just below the prior consolidation floor and the next layered support cluster sits at $4,462 (Fib) / $4,322. Until $4,791–$4,838 is reclaimed and held, the breakdown bias remains intact. The macro pressure (firm dollar, sticky rate expectations) is reinforcing this corrective phase.

Three weeks ago I wrote that the significant march higher in yields was probably the bond market suggesting to the equity markets that this may be stagflation — that the Fed won’t come to the rescue and cut rates. This week the 10-year yield drifted back up to 4.40% and I see a bull flag forming on a 3-month weekly chart. Next resistance is 4.48% / 4.69%; the recent low was 3.96%. The two macro variables genuinely looming over this rally are inflation and interest rates — those are the things the market will eventually have to turn its attention to.

Chart is showing support at the 38% Fib support line I drew out a few months ago. (If 38% is supported, that’s usually a bullish sign.) The same goes for the upward sloping trendline that dates back to 2008. DXY at 98.12 is sitting right on that cluster — a bounce keeps the 100.64 cycle high in play; a loss of 97.93 opens the door toward the 95.55 cycle low.

I’ve been showing you this level for a few weeks now. Chart was showing resistance at the 100-DMA and a FIB# at $79,826. That level was hit a few times and held — but this past week it broke that resistance. Support was found in the $61,000–$65,000 area. Next resistance is $84,336 and $85,633 and then the 200-MA. Bitcoin coming off the $60K lows and chasing $80K — historically that has tracked retail risk appetite. Every 10–20% drawdown since 2020 has been bought.

Two weeks ago I wrote: Bloomberg Commodity Index is reaching all-time highs (we hit that resistance level and sold off — now they broke through again). Cattle futures new highs. Soybean broke out of consolidating area. Rough Rice — I see a triangle formation. OAT started moving — broke out of triangle formation. Wheat — I see a bull flag forming. Milk — hard to tell, but it looks like an inverted head-and-shoulders formation.

IGV closed at $86.63, holding above the $80.13 support zone I pointed out in previous weeks. Next resistance is $88.23, then $91.05; the 200-DMA at $100.66 remains the longer-term ceiling. I’m watching my horizontal support and resistance lines. Tom Lee raised IGV to a top pick this week alongside Mag 7 and crypto, arguing each dollar of revenue upside in software is delivering an outsized amount of EPS upside. Per Lee, software has reached a ten-year low relative to the S&P — you’re effectively buying it as if it’s 2016.

I see a head-and-shoulders formation and a bear flag forming on silver, but I also see a downward trendline that was penetrated to the upside. Silver is sitting at $75.87, well off the $121.79 cycle high. That’s the tension right now — bearish chart patterns on one hand, bullish trendline break on the other. Until the pattern resolves, this is a play-the-levels market — defined risk both ways.

SOX at a 30-year high. Read into that what you want — semis lead at inflection points, both up and down. April moves in the chip space were parabolic: Intel +114%, Astera +78%, AMD +74%, Marvell +67%, Micron +53%, Qualcomm +39%, Arm +39%, Broadcom +35%, with AMAT +15% and NVIDIA +14% on the more modest end. Those are not ordinary moves. Wolf Research called the chip space overbought, extended and overhyped this week — while also acknowledging that trying to fade momentum like this has been extremely painful. The only other SOX resistance I see here is a FIB# at 10,800. DeGraff’s bubble indicator on semiconductors is still flashing — finger on the cord, but he hasn’t yanked it.

Last week I was pointing out that NVDA held the upward sloping trendline support zone and the SOX semiconductor index held its ground and made new all-time highs. This week I point to the fact that NVDA has earnings soon and the MAGS 7 all-time high is $69.14 — so there’s room to run here, and if that happens it can push SPX higher. Let’s see how this plays out going forward.

The bull rebuttal on chip valuations is credible: NVIDIA is barely trading above a market multiple and still trades at a discount to “safe” stocks like Costco and Walmart at almost 50x earnings. Tom Lee’s contrarian take is that estimates in AI are still too low, which is precisely why the multiples look so reasonable.

Monday May 4: Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), BWX Technologies (BWXT), CNA Financial (CNA), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), ON Semiconductor (ON), Palantir (PLTR), Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), Tyson Foods (TSN).

Tuesday May 5: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD), Arista Networks (ANET), Cummins (CMI), Duke Energy (DUK), Eaton (ETN), Emerson Electric (EMR), EOG Resources (EOG), KKR & Co. (KKR), Lumentum (LITE), Pfizer (PFE), Shopify (SHOP), Strategy Inc. (MSTR), Suncor Energy (SU).

Wednesday May 6: Apollo Global Management (APO), Arm Holdings (ARM), AppLovin (APP), CVS Health (CVS), DoorDash (DASH), Equinor (EQNR), Fortinet (FTNT), Marriott (MAR), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Uber (UBER), Walt Disney (DIS).

Thursday May 7: Airbnb (ABNB), Argenx (ARGX), Becton Dickinson (BDX), Cenovus Energy (CVE), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Cloudflare (NET), Coinbase (COIN), CoreWeave (CRWV), Datadog (DDOG), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), McDonald’s (MCD), McKesson (MCK), MercadoLibre (MELI), Shell (SHEL), W.W. Grainger (GWW).

Friday May 8: AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), Enbridge (ENB), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), PPL Corp (PPL), Sony Group (SONY), Toyota Motor (TM), Ubiquiti (UI).

Heaviest single names are PLTR Monday, AMD Tuesday, ARM and DIS Wednesday, COIN Thursday — plus the Friday morning jobs print.

Macro Theme: Compression Resolving into Directional Rotation

This week across commodities futures markets marked a transition from compression into early directional resolution, with clearer separation between outperforming and lagging sectors. The prior environment of coiling price action and indecision is beginning to give way to confirmed trends in some sectors, structural weakness in others, and increased conviction tied to macro data. The overarching framework remains driven by Fed policy expectations, directional pressure from the US Dollar, and ongoing uncertainty in global growth — particularly China.

Key Macro Observations

• Energy markets are attempting to resolve from compression but lack strong follow-through.
• Precious metals continue trending lower under macro pressure.
• Industrial metals are showing clearer downside sensitivity to growth concerns.
• Agricultural commodities remain the strongest and most consistent trending segment.

Positioning & Flow (COT Insight)

Positioning now reflects a clear divergence environment: the US Dollar remains firm, reinforcing pressure on most commodities; short exposure increasing in metals and gas; long exposure concentrating in selective sectors (primarily agriculture). Capital is no longer rotating broadly — it is concentrating into the strongest trends, and weak sectors are seeing trend reinforcement, not stabilization.

Key Cross-Market Signals

• Resolution of compression — markets are exiting low-volatility ranges; directional moves beginning to establish, though unevenly.
• Metals breakdown confirmed — gold, silver and copper aligning to the downside; macro pressure fully dominating.
• Energy still indecisive — oil attempting expansion but lacking conviction; no clear trend leadership.
• Agriculture leadership intact — strongest and cleanest trend across commodities; continued capital rotation into ags.

Risks to Monitor (Upcoming Week)

• Policy signals from the Federal Reserve.
• Direction and strength of the US Dollar.
• China demand data and stimulus developments.
• Any reintroduction of geopolitical risk into energy markets.
• Weather-driven volatility impacting agricultural supply.

Bottom Line

Commodities have moved beyond simple divergence — they are entering a phase of directional clarity with uneven participation. Geopolitical influence: low. Macro dominance: very high. Volatility: expanding from compression. This is now a trend-selective market, not just a relative-value environment. Energy is attempting (but failing) to break out. Metals are breaking down under macro pressure. Agriculture is leading with sustained momentum. The opportunity set is no longer about anticipating rotation — it’s about aligning with confirmed trends and avoiding structurally weak sectors.