Bottom Line
Top of BookOver a week old but still the best quote — Jeff DeGraff of Renaissance Macro had what I think was the cleanest framing of where this market sits as we close out April: we’re still dancing, but we’re staying in close proximity to the door. The tape, as DeGraff put it, is the dominant factor — and the tape is moving in the right direction. That keeps him constructive. The driving engine behind this week’s push higher in stocks continued to be the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure plays, especially in the chip stocks. AMD reported earnings on Tuesday and helped fuel additional bullish momentum as AMD CEO Lisa Su once again revised longer-term growth expectations higher. The continuous data points from the chip companies suggest that compute demand still outstrips supply.
Another euphoric week and not without reason. Friday morning’s stronger-than-expected monthly jobs report appears to be reinforcing the notion that the labor market is firm, and the AI secular growth story will continue to support economic growth, regardless of higher oil prices and no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Are markets becoming complacent? Possibly — but current conditions still support bullish momentum. The global economy is experiencing a major capital expenditure cycle, while earnings expectations continue to trend higher.
As long as pullbacks are consistently bought and dip buyers continue to be rewarded, bullish positioning can reinforce itself and extend trends longer than many expect. When markets continue stair-stepping into new all-time highs, there is little historical resistance overhead. In these environments, price discovery remains active, meaning the market is still attempting to determine fair value. Near-term conditions may appear overbought, particularly in areas like the semiconductor sector, but overbought conditions alone do not determine when a pullback will occur. Strong momentum can persist longer than expected. Instead of predicting reversals solely from stretched conditions, traders should monitor for actual signs of weakening momentum, such as: bearish reversal candlestick patterns on the daily timeframe; failed breakouts or loss of follow-through; deteriorating breadth or momentum confirmation; and negative news.
Technical Analysis
Course Rules — Support, Resistance & ConfirmationI’ve been studying charts for 32 years now, as you can see week in and week out when I give you levels that’s where price tends to settle for a fight between the bulls and bears.
This week I will give you the outline from my course rules on support and resistance; same applies for trendlines.
Support, Resistance, and Price Confirmation
Support and resistance are foundational concepts in technical analysis that represent historical reaction zones where price has previously shifted due to changes in supply, demand, and liquidity behavior.
Support
A support level is a price zone where previous buying response or liquidity absorption has slowed or reversed declines.
In intraday trading, prior session lows are commonly used as reference points for potential support, though their significance depends on market context, volatility, and participation.
How to Use Support Levels
Long positions / breakdown scenarios: If price breaks below a key support zone with strong participation, it may indicate a shift in market structure and weakening demand. This can justify reducing or exiting long exposure depending on overall trend context.
Buying at support (confirmation required): Avoid entering blindly at support. Wait for confirmation of response, such as:
- rejection candle structures (e.g., wick rejection / hammer-type formation)
- stabilization or compression in price action
- evidence of absorption or buying pressure in flow/volume
Short positioning near support: As price approaches support, probability of reaction or liquidity sweep increases. Risk management becomes more important than assuming immediate continuation, as temporary rebounds are common.
Principle
Support and resistance are dynamic reaction zones driven by liquidity and participation, not fixed barriers. Their validity is determined by price behavior and confirmation, not the level itself.
Bottom Line
- Support/resistance = reaction zones, not exact price lines
- Breaks matter, but false breaks are common
- Confirmation requires price + structure + participation
- Levels evolve (support ↔ resistance flips)
- Behavior > level (market reaction defines validity)
S&P 500 — SPX
Trend Bullish — StretchedSPX has been above the 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages since April 8. The trend structure is clean and bullish on a long term basis, but very stretched as can be seen on RSI. Next resistance is the next trendline I have around 7,500 and support around 20 Day MA 7,150–7,200 previous trendline.
I would keep an eye on S&P equal weight whether it will break all-time high, SOX and NVDA.
Nasdaq Composite — COMP
All Resistance Taken OutEvery resistance level was taken out. The only resistance I have are some trendlines around 26,350 to 26,500, then the next Fib# is 29,390. Next supports can be found at a retest of last all-time high 24,020 & or the moving averages.
The Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) continued to surge higher this week, now up 27% off the March 30th lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 82, the highest levels since 2018 hit 84. Over the past 10 years when the NDX has pushed above the 80 level it was typically within a week of some degree of mean reversion. Intermediate and longer-term bullish, near-term cautious.
Dow Jones Industrial Average — DJI
Held the Blue Support LineDOW found support at the blue support line I had on my charts around the 45,000 level. Next resistance all-time highs, supports can be found at MA and trendlines I posted on the chart.
VIX — Volatility Index
Door Open for UpsideKeeping an eye on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), in order for the market to stay up, I would like to see the VIX trading continuing to trade below the 50 and then the 200 DMA. VIX at 18.71 keeps the door open for further upside, but it is no longer at the levels (sub-15) where you would call it complacent.
Crude Oil WTI — CL
Levels Playing OutAs you see on my chart the levels I have drawn out a few weeks ago are playing out perfectly — they are acting as support and resistance zones based on where price is coming from.
Gold — GC
MAs Want to Cross DownGold has a long & medium support at the 200 day MA. I see short term resistance at the Fib levels I have and 100 & 50 DMA, they appear as if they want to cross down soon.
Fixed Income — 10-Year Treasury Yield
Stagflation Question on the TableThree weeks ago, I wrote the significant march higher in yields is probably the bond market suggesting to the equity markets that this may be stagflation — what the Fed will do is the question on the table. 4.5 is resistance while 4.25 is support.
US Dollar Index — DXY
Testing 38% FibChart is showing support at FIB support lines 38% I drew out a few months ago. (If 38% is supported that’s usually a bullish sign.) The same goes for the upward sloping trendline I drew out, which dates back to 2008. If this area doesn’t hold, we would need confirmation before it turns into resistance.
Bitcoin — BTC
Resistance Broken — Needs to Hold as SupportI’ve been showing you this level for a few weeks now. Chart is showing resistance at 100 DMA and a Fib# at 79,826. (That level was hit a few times and held but this past week it broke that resistance, and longs need to see that area turn into support for continued upside.) Support was found 61 to 65,000 area. Next resistance is 84,300 & 85,600 and then the 200 MA.
Futures — Commodity Complex
Bloomberg Commodity Index Re-TestTwo weeks ago I wrote: Bloomberg Commodity Index is reaching all-time highs. (We hit that resistance level and sold off, now they broke through again and they broke below that level again — that is a false breakout until that resistance is held as support.) Cattle futures new highs (I drew the line in the sand as a yellow line; you should read about seasonality when it comes to cattle futures). Soybean; I wrote it broke out of consolidating area (last resistance seems to be support now, that’s a good sign for the bulls). Rough rice we saw a triangle formation which broke to the upside, now we see a flag formation, which indicates further upside; keep in mind there is a resistance level here from past years. OAT — started moving, broke out of triangle formation, last resistance needs to hold as support around 335. Wheat — the bull flag didn’t form, support at 20 DMA, resistance 671 and Bollinger bands. Milk — hard to tell but looks like an inverted head and shoulders formation, support at 20, 50 DMA and trendline.
ETF — IGV Software
Support Held — Above Prior ResistanceIGV holds the support zone $74.38 I pointed out to you in previous weeks. Next resistance $88.23 (held the line, then broke above) — watching my horizontal support and resistance lines which seem to be working nicely.
Silver Futures — SI
Consolidation / TriangleI see a consolidation and a triangle formation. But mostly support and resistance lines.
Semiconductors — SOX
30-Year High — StretchedSOX at a 30-year high. Read into that what you want. Semis lead at inflection points, both up and down. Next resistance area 13,072. Support MA and horizontal lines. SOX is up 64% from the March 30th lows and is 59% above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It’s in overbought territory but that doesn’t tell you when a potential pullback will manifest.
NVIDIA — NVDA
Broke All-Time HighLast week I pointed out that NVDA held the upward sloping trendline support zone and the SOX semiconductor index held its ground and made new all-time highs. This week I point to the fact that NVDA has earnings soon and MAGS 7 all-time high was $69.14 so there is room to run here — and they broke all-time high. It happened, it can push the SPX even higher. Let’s see how this plays out going forward. The next resistance for NVDA on my charts is $270 (although I didn’t fully finish studying this chart).
Weekly Economic Calendar
Week of May 11 – May 15, 2026| Day | Time ET | Release |
|---|---|---|
| MON 5/11 | 10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales |
| TUE 5/12 | 3:15 AM | New York Fed President John Williams Speaks |
| TUE 5/12 | 6:00 AM | NFIB Optimism Index |
| TUE 5/12 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
| TUE 5/12 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | CPI Year over Year |
| TUE 5/12 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core CPI |
| TUE 5/12 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core CPI Year over Year |
| TUE 5/12 | 1:00 PM | Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speech |
| TUE 5/12 | 2:00 PM | Monthly U.S. Federal Budget |
| WED 5/13 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Producer Price Index (PPI) |
| WED 5/13 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core PPI |
| WED 5/13 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | PPI Year over Year |
| WED 5/13 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core PPI Year over Year |
| WED 5/13 | 11:30 AM | Boston Fed President Susan Collins Speech |
| THU 5/14 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | U.S. Retail Sales |
| THU 5/14 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Retail Sales Minus Autos |
| THU 5/14 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims |
| THU 5/14 | 8:30 AM | Import Price Index |
| THU 5/14 | 8:30 AM | Import Price Index Minus Fuel |
| THU 5/14 | 10:00 AM | Business Inventories |
| THU 5/14 | 1:00 PM | Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack Opening Remarks |
| THU 5/14 | 5:45 PM | New York Fed President John Williams Speaks |
| THU 5/14 | 7:00 PM | Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr Speech |
| FRI 5/15 | 8:30 AM | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| FRI 5/15 | 9:15 AM | Industrial Production |
| FRI 5/15 | 9:15 AM | Capacity Utilization |
Key Earnings
Week of May 11 – May 15, 2026Monday (May 11): AECOM (ACM), AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS), Barrick Mining Corp. (B), Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL), Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG), Figure Technology Solutions Inc. (FIGR), Fox Corp. (FOXA), ICON PLC (ICLR), Mosaic Co. (MOS), Ovintiv Inc. (OVV), Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR), Simon Property Group (SPG)
Tuesday (May 12): Aramark (ARMK), CAE Inc. (CAE), Ecopetrol SA (EC), Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV), JD.com (JD), Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN), Nextpower Inc. (NXT), Oklo Inc. (OKLO), On Holding AG (ONON), PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS), Qnity Electronics Inc. (Q), Sea Ltd. (SE), Venture Global Inc. (VG)
Wednesday (May 13): Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), Birkenstock Holdings PLC (BIRK), Celcuity Inc. (CELC), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), Dynatrace Inc. (DT), Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEP), Nebius Group NV (NBIS), Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. (TAK), Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM), USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR)
Thursday (May 14): Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Brookfield Corp. (BN), Bullish (BLSH), Dillard’s Inc. (DDS), Credicorp Ltd. (BAP), Figma Inc. (FIG), KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE), NetEase Inc. (NTES), NU Holdings Ltd. (NU), Viking Holdings Ltd. (VIK)
Friday (May 15): Alumis Inc. (ALMS), Arrivent Biopharma Inc. (AVBP), Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO), H World Group Ltd. (HTHT), RBC Bearings Inc. (RBC), RLX Technology Inc. (RLX), Xpeng Inc. (XPEV)
Weekly Commodities Futures Overview
Trend Reinforcement vs. Emerging ExhaustionMacro Theme: Trend Reinforcement vs. Emerging Exhaustion. This week across commodities futures markets marked a continuation of the developing divergence theme — but with an important evolution: some trends are now entering reinforcement phases, while others are beginning to show signs of momentum exhaustion.
The commodity complex is no longer transitioning into directional clarity — it is now operating within: established leadership trends, persistent macro underperformance, and increasingly selective capital allocation.
The dominant macro framework remains centered around: interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, continued resilience in the US Dollar, and slowing but uneven global growth conditions.
Key Macro Observations
- Energy markets remain directionally undecided despite periodic volatility expansion
- Precious metals continue facing macro pressure, though downside momentum is slowing
- Industrial metals remain tied closely to growth expectations and China-related demand concerns
- Agricultural commodities continue to lead, though momentum is becoming increasingly extended
Continued attempting to establish a directional breakout but trapped between competing macro forces. Increased volatility without sustained trend confirmation; continued failure of breakout extensions; highly reactive to short-term macro headlines and inventory data. Sharp intraday movement followed by mean reversion. Demand uncertainty continues offsetting any residual geopolitical premium.
Maintained its bearish structure, though downside momentum began showing early signs of slowing. Drivers: weak seasonal demand expectations, persistent oversupply concerns, reduced speculative buying interest. Lower highs and lower lows remain intact, but downside follow-through becoming less aggressive. Trend remains bearish but increasingly vulnerable to short-covering volatility.
Remained under macro pressure, though selling intensity moderated compared to prior weeks. Key influences: firm US Dollar, stable-to-higher real rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, limited safe-haven urgency. Downtrend structure remains intact; selling pressure becoming less aggressive near lows; early stabilization attempts emerging. Macro-sensitive but downside momentum may be entering consolidation rather than acceleration.
Stabilized relative to prior weeks but continued to underperform historically bullish expectations. Industrial demand still providing partial support; macro pressure limiting upside participation. Volatility remains elevated; directional conviction weaker than previous downside phase.
Continued trading as a growth-sensitive macro asset, though downside momentum slowed compared to prior breakdown phases. Ongoing concern around global industrial demand; China stimulus expectations periodically supporting short-term rebounds. Reduced downside momentum; more balanced two-way trade emerging; dip-buying selectively returning. Transitioning from aggressive liquidation toward tentative stabilization.
Strongest segment of the commodity complex, though trend maturity becoming more apparent. Trend continuation remains intact; pullbacks continue attracting buyers; momentum constructive but increasingly crowded. Corn: weather/planting uncertainty primary drivers. Wheat: tightening supply conditions support higher pricing. Strong uptrend with signs of short-term extension.
Positioning & Flow (COT Insight)
Positioning trends suggest commodity markets are entering a more mature directional phase: the US Dollar remains broadly supportive against commodities; short positioning in metals appears increasingly crowded; long exposure remains concentrated in agriculture and selective energy trades. Implication: positioning is becoming more asymmetric — markets may become increasingly vulnerable to sharp countertrend moves if macro conditions shift unexpectedly.
Key Cross-Market Signals
- Trend Maturity Increasing — established trends remain intact, but momentum strength is beginning to moderate in several sectors.
- Metals Weakness Stabilizing — gold and copper remain structurally weak, but downside acceleration is slowing.
- Energy Still Without Leadership — oil volatility increasing without sustained breakout resolution; trapped between macro uncertainty and supply stability.
- Agriculture Still Leading — strongest relative performance remains in ag commodities; leadership intact, though increasingly extended technically.
Risks to Monitor (Upcoming Week)
- Changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve
- Continued strength or reversal in the US Dollar
- China growth data and stimulus expectations
- Energy inventory and demand data
- Weather developments impacting agricultural production
Bottom Line
Closing SummaryCommodity markets are now entering a more mature phase of directional divergence, where existing trends remain dominant, momentum is becoming less uniform, and positioning is increasingly concentrated. Geopolitical influence: limited. Macro influence: dominant. Trend quality: strong, but maturing.
This environment increasingly favors relative strength identification, tactical positioning management, and awareness of crowded trend risk. Where: energy remains indecisive and reactive; metals remain structurally weak but less aggressively sold; agriculture continues leading, though with growing extension risk.
The market is no longer searching for direction — it is now determining which existing trends can sustain momentum and which are vulnerable to reversal or consolidation. Still dancing — close to the door.
by Eli G Levy · eli@cannontrading.com · May 10, 2026 · Issue 018