Editorial Brief
Top of BookDow Jones, the Equal-Weight S&P, and the Russell 2000 indices hit fresh record highs this week, but it was anything but a quiet grind higher. The tape was caught off-guard by a hawkish surprise out of the FOMC, where incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a firm message that the committee’s focus is squarely on price stability, leaning on a stable labor market as the cover to do so. Stocks sank and the 2-year yield spiked as the market re-calibrated its expectations for the path of the Fed funds rate. What stands out to me is how quickly the bounce-back came — by the back half of the week the indices had largely round-tripped the FOMC sell-off, helped along by lower oil prices and Treasury yields that, while higher, steadied rather than ran away.
There are really two ways to read the same meeting, and the market is still arguing it out. On one side, the message was plainly hawkish — the dots drifted toward a potential hike, the easing bias was stripped out, and the risk of a move higher has clearly increased; the question is no longer whether but when, with the back half of the summer in play if the inflation data cooperates. On the other side, the removal of explicit forward guidance and the de-emphasis of the dots can be read as the Fed simply buying itself optionality rather than committing to tightening — a less hawkish, even market-friendly, interpretation. Both readings are live, and the price action tells me the market hasn’t fully settled on one. If oil prices stay down that should help inflation and the Fed as to not raise rates.
On the geopolitical front, U.S.–Iran relations took a constructive turn: the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding that opens a 60-day window for negotiations, with technical talks slated to begin this weekend. Oil responded in kind — WTI crude is down roughly 9.5% on the week to around $75/barrel, its lowest level since early March. Lower energy is a tailwind for the disinflation story and for risk appetite, but it cuts both ways: any breakdown in the framework or fresh friction around the Strait of Hormuz could put a bid right back under crude.
As for what’s actually holding this bull market up, I’d point to two forces, and they’re related: first, the prospect of roughly 20% corporate earnings growth in the coming quarters; and second, the AI infrastructure buildout, which remains firmly in its expansion phase — demand for compute still outstrips available supply. The clearest piece of evidence is the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), printing fresh all-time highs even through the week’s volatility. The financing behind the theme tells the same story: Amazon’s C$14B bond + $17.5B bank loan and a $25B corporate debt offering from Nvidia early this week followed an ~$85B capital raise from Alphabet earlier this month. As long as that spending holds and supply stays tight, the AI trade is likely to keep its grip on trader psychology. The flip side is the obvious one — the day demand and supply look balanced, or hyperscaler spending shows any sign of fatigue or deceleration, or rates go up and borrowing gets more expensive, the same names that have led can lead lower, and that leaves the chip/AI complex exposed to higher volatility.
There’s also a quieter signal worth keeping on the radar: the dollar. It put in one of its strongest single sessions in about a year on the back of the Fed, and a sustained move higher there tightens financial conditions more broadly and more quickly than any single rate decision — the kind of thing that does real work in the background while everyone is fixated on the dots. Pair that with a heavy slate of Treasury supply hitting the market this week — 2-, 5-, and 7-year auctions into a hawkish curve — and you have a genuine test of demand for paper.
On the fixed-income side, Rick Rieder has stuck with his constructive “golden age of fixed income” framing — the idea that you get paid to be patient in the belly of the curve and that there’s still a case for a couple of cuts down the road, even as that view now sits offside the hawkish repricing. He’s leaned toward equities in the near term, which is worth noting given how offside the dovish camp looks against where the Fed just moved.
Looking ahead, next week brings the monthly PCE prices report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — though I’m not sure how much it moves the needle now that oil has rolled into a downtrend and is doing some of the disinflation work itself. The bigger catalyst on my screen is Wednesday’s quarterly earnings from memory maker Micron Technology, which is itself printing fresh all-time highs into the report — a setup that can cut sharply either way and adds to the case for higher volatility across the chip/AI complex. Beyond that, the two things I’m watching are any disruption to the U.S.–Iran MOU and a continued creep higher in yields (the 2-year hit a 52-week high of 4.21% this past week).
So where does that leave us? Near-term technicals are bullish, even if the internals within tech look susceptible to sharper swings. But I also see a resistance trendline in the RUT — you’ll see it in my charts below — and that’s why I’m framing this as a small clue to watch. The thing I’m watching most closely now is whether the Russell 2000 can clear that resistance and confirm continued risk-on, or whether this turns out to be a top. It’s just as possible we simply consolidate here. I don’t need to guess — the market will tell us which way we’re headed.
Technical Analysis
Course Rules — Support, Resistance & TrendlinesS&P 500 — SPX
Lower High — Watching for Lower LowSPX found support above its 50-day moving average (yellow line). Next supports are the FIB levels — horizontal lines — then the 100 & 200 DMA. Resistance can be the dotted trendlines and the all-time high. I am noticing we made a short-term lower high, not a lower low (keep an eye out if we make a lower low).
Nasdaq Composite — COMP
Held the 50-DayNASDAQ held support at the 50-day. Next supports are the FIB levels — horizontal lines — then the 100 & 200 DMA. Resistance can be found at trendlines and the all-time high.
Dow Jones Industrial Average — DJI
Support at 20 & 50 DMADOW — next support can be found at the 20 and 50 DMA, then the FIB numbers. Resistance: all-time high and trendlines.
Russell 2000 — RUT
Closed Below the TrendlineLast week I wrote: RUT broke its all-time high resistance trendline dating back from 2000 on May 5. But the IWM ETF is at that resistance trendline now. I’ve seen this movie before and you can’t tell which one is the more decisive one to follow — the ETF or the INDEX. I would follow this story this week as well to get an understanding regarding risk-on or risk-off. I will note that we closed this week below that trendline on the IWM. Past results are not indicative of future results.
VIX — Volatility Index
Death CrossVIX broke past its 20, 200 and 50 DMA to the upside, then shot back down. I see a death cross on the VIX.
Crude Oil WTI — CL
Broke 100 DMA SupportAs you see on my chart, the levels I drew out a few weeks ago are playing out perfectly — they are acting as support and resistance zones based on where price is coming from. We broke support at the 100 DMA. Next up: purple & green FIB# lines and 200 DMA support. (The issue I am encountering is you don’t know which one of the supports will hold, and therefore small stops will get you out even if you are right; and if one were to place large stops, who’s to say he’s going to be right and then incur a large loss.)
Gold — GC
Broke 50 & 200 DMAGold broke its support at the 50 & 200 day MA. Next support can be found at the FIB levels, and resistance at the 20 DMA & the FIB numbers.
Fixed Income — 10-Year Treasury Yield
Watching Hyperscaler SupplyWhat the Fed will do is the question on the table. Look for my next levels using the purple lines and moving averages. (Note: I am watching yields closely due to all the debt the hyperscalers are issuing as of late.)
US Dollar Index — DXY
Broke Out — Holding SupportThe chart you’re looking at is a monthly chart dating back to 2009. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture to see the bigger picture — and now the trendlines can help you assess real risk better.
The daily chart is showing support at minor trendlines and the 38% FIB support lines I drew out a few months ago. (If 38% is supported, that’s usually a bullish sign.) The same goes for the upward-sloping trendline I drew out, which dates back to 2008 (that area has held a few times now). We broke out last Friday, and so far that level has held as support.
Bitcoin — BTC
Held the February LowThe chart you’re viewing is a monthly chart, so you can see we are at the 50 DMA on the monthly time frame. The real support dates back to 8/5/2024 @ $50,534. For now, we held the February low. I do see that BTC has been playing the FIB levels nicely. Past indications of a level don’t automatically mean they will hold again.
Futures — Commodity Complex
Futures Daily OverviewA full look across the futures complex — see the overview chart below.
ETF — IGV Software
Lost 50 & 200 DMAWe need to remember software was hit hard this year, and I wrote two weeks ago: if this market turns down then IGV is susceptible to further downside. (That seems to be happening — maybe it’s investors selling so they can have funds to buy SpaceX-like names I hear about on the news, maybe not.) We couldn’t hold the 200 DMA & 50 DMA. Next support is the FIB numbers.
Silver Futures — SI
200 DMA Lost — Held March LowMy levels weren’t working for Silver — it’s mostly support and resistance lines per prior days and weeks, and perhaps the MA. The 200 DMA didn’t hold; buyers found support at the March 23 low at $61.21, which was also a 50% retracement of the all-time FIB numbers.
Semiconductors — SOX
Bearish RSI DivergenceSOX — next support can be found at the MA and FIB levels. Note: SOX is making all-time highs but the RSI is not — I see a divergence. Be cautious, this sector is volatile.
NVIDIA — NVDA
Sell-the-News WatchFor a few weeks I’ve been pointing out we may see a sell-on-the-news after earnings, because that has been the trend. The next support can be found at the 100 & 200 DMA, FIB levels and trendlines. Resistance at the 50 & 20 DMA, trendlines and FIB numbers.
Weekly Economic Calendar
Week of June 22 – June 26, 2026| Day | Time ET | Release |
|---|---|---|
| MON 6/22 | — | No Scheduled Reports |
| TUE 6/23 | 9:45 AM | U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| TUE 6/23 | 9:45 AM | U.S. Flash Services PMI |
| WED 6/24 | 10:00 AM | New Home Sales |
| WED 6/24 | 4:00 PM | Federal Reserve Bank Stress Test Results |
| THU 6/25 | 8:30 AM | Durable Goods Orders |
| THU 6/25 | 8:30 AM | GDP (3rd Estimate) |
| THU 6/25 | 8:30 AM | Weekly Jobless Claims |
| THU 6/25 | 8:30 AM | Personal Income |
| THU 6/25 | 8:30 AM | Consumer Spending |
| THU 6/25 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | PCE Price Index (MoM) |
| THU 6/25 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | PCE Price Index (YoY) |
| THU 6/25 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
| THU 6/25 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core PCE Price Index (YoY) |
| THU 6/25 | 11:00 AM | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey |
| THU 6/25 | 6:30 PM | Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speaks |
| FRI 6/26 | 8:30 AM | Advance Economic Indicators Report |
| FRI 6/26 | 8:30 AM | Wholesale Inventories |
| FRI 6/26 | 8:30 AM | Retail Inventories |
| FRI 6/26 | 10:00 AM | University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment Survey |
Weekly Earnings Calendar
Week of June 22 – June 26, 2026Monday (June 22): AREC, EBF, FRVO, ICLR, POWW
Tuesday (June 23): CCL, CBRS, FDX, KBH, KFY
Wednesday (June 24): DAKT, FUL, JEF, LEVI, NG, MU, TCOM
Thursday (June 25): AYI, BB, CMC, DRI, EPAC, FDXF, LNN, MKC, SNX, WGO
Friday (June 26): APOG
Weekly Commodities Futures Overview
From Geopolitical Panic to Geopolitical Risk PremiumMacro Theme: From Geopolitical Panic to Geopolitical Risk Premium. This week marked an important transition across commodity futures markets. Last week, markets were aggressively repricing the possibility of a major Middle East escalation. This week, traders shifted from reacting to headlines toward assessing the actual economic and supply consequences of the conflict.
The result: energy markets remained elevated but became less panic-driven; gold held gains but safe-haven buying moderated; industrial commodities stabilized; agriculture returned to weather-driven fundamentals; and inflation expectations remained elevated but not accelerating. The dominant market question has now become: will the geopolitical risk premium remain embedded in commodity prices, or will markets begin removing it if supply disruptions fail to materialize? The commodity complex is transitioning from shock pricing toward evidence-based pricing.
Key Macro Observations
- Crude oil remains the leadership market but momentum slowed
- Gold retained safe-haven support
- Silver continued benefiting from both inflation and industrial demand
- Copper improved as recession fears failed to accelerate
- Agriculture shifted back toward seasonal weather drivers
- The U.S. Dollar remained stable despite geopolitical uncertainty
Most importantly: markets are no longer pricing worst-case scenarios, but they are not yet removing risk premiums either.
Oil remains the dominant commodity market, but is shifting from pricing fear of disruption to monitoring actual supply impacts. Drivers: Israel-Iran developments, Strait of Hormuz shipping risk, OPEC supply discipline, global demand. Large volatility remains but upside momentum slowed; buyers continue defending pullbacks. Uptrend intact but no longer panic buying — future gains increasingly require actual supply disruptions.
Continued improving quietly beneath the surface. Drivers: summer cooling demand, LNG export demand, improving technical structure. Higher lows emerging; base-building continues; volatility declining relative to crude. Natural gas is gradually transitioning from stabilization toward a potential recovery phase.
Supported by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, central bank demand and portfolio hedging. Support levels holding firmly; safe-haven inflows slowing; consolidation replacing acceleration. Healthy uptrend entering a consolidation period — near-term gains may require renewed escalation or softer Fed expectations.
Continues displaying stronger relative strength than gold. Supporting themes: industrial demand resilience, precious metals strength, inflation-hedging flows. Trend remains constructive; momentum healthy; participation broadening. Silver continues benefiting from both economic stabilization and precious metals demand.
Improved this week as markets became more comfortable with the growth outlook. Themes: China stimulus expectations, stable manufacturing data, reduced recession concerns. Buyers increasingly active; improved trend structure; reduced downside volatility. Transitioning from stabilization toward a developing recovery trend — markets expect slower growth, not recession.
Increasingly driven by seasonal fundamentals: U.S. crop conditions, weather forecasts, export demand, USDA acreage expectations. Leadership moderated further; more two-way trade emerging; weather headlines driving volatility. Fundamentally healthy but has clearly surrendered leadership to energy and precious metals.
Positioning & Flow (COT Insight)
Positioning trends suggest a transition from “Geopolitical Inflation Hedging” toward “Selective Commodity Leadership.” Energy longs remain elevated; gold participation stable; silver participation expanding; agriculture positioning becoming less crowded; industrial metals attracting fresh capital. Implication: markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to supply disruptions, inflation expectations, economic growth data, and Federal Reserve communication.
Key Cross-Market Signals
- Energy Leadership Remains Intact — oil remains the dominant macro driver; geopolitical premium still embedded.
- Precious Metals Are Consolidating Strength — gold remains supported; silver gaining relative strength.
- Industrial Metals Are Improving — copper participation increasing; growth fears stabilizing.
- Commodity Leadership Is Beginning to Broaden — current ranking: Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Agriculture, Natural Gas.
Risks to Monitor (Upcoming Week)
- Israel-Iran developments & Strait of Hormuz shipping activity
- Crude oil inventory data
- Inflation expectations & Federal Reserve commentary
- China economic data & USDA crop progress reports
- U.S. Dollar trend changes
Bottom Line
Closing SummaryCommodity futures markets are transitioning from a pure geopolitical shock environment toward a more balanced assessment of inflation, supply risk, and economic growth. Current characteristics: geopolitical influence very high, macro influence high, inflation sensitivity elevated, trend quality strongest in energy and precious metals, and positioning concentration stabilizing.
This environment increasingly favors relative-strength leadership analysis, energy market monitoring, tactical precious metals exposure, and selective industrial commodity participation. Current leadership: crude oil = primary macro leader; gold = preferred defensive hedge; silver = strongest improving market; copper = recovery candidate; agriculture = neutral; natural gas = quietly strengthening.
The commodity complex is no longer reacting solely to geopolitical headlines — it is increasingly determining which sectors can maintain leadership once the initial risk premium stabilizes and markets refocus on supply, inflation, and economic growth.
by Eli G Levy · eli@cannontrading.com · June 21, 2026 · Issue 024