Opening Statement
Top of BookFor most of the year, this market has climbed a remarkably quiet staircase. This week, it discovered the elevator shaft.
The unwind started where the crowd was most comfortable: semiconductors. It kicked off Monday with SK Hynix’s largest single-day drop on record after a downbeat read on memory pricing and HBM4 shipments, and the pain didn’t stay contained. Micron (MU) finished the week down roughly 10% and SanDisk about 24%; the broader complex followed, with the SOX index — and ETFs that track it like SMH and SOXX — logging their worst week since March 2025. Even beat-and-raise quarters from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML couldn’t hold their stocks up. By Friday the selling had spread out of chips and into the megacaps, with Netflix (NFLX) tumbling roughly 8–11% on soft guidance and Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both lower. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week around 7,457, off about 1.6%, slipping below its 50-day moving average while still holding the 200-day line it has defended since April. The Nasdaq fell about 2.5%. Faced with a fast-moving set of questions about the AI growth story, investors adopted a simple posture: sell now, ask questions later.
And the questions are real. Corporate budgets are visibly shifting toward AI infrastructure — the abruptness of that shift showed up violently in IBM’s roughly 25% one-day collapse, its worst in decades, as clients redirected spending away from software toward chips and memory. Chinese labs are releasing cheaper, competitive models; new memory supply is heading toward IPO; and enterprises are quietly moving from spending on tokens at any cost toward squeezing more out of the tokens they already buy. Layer on oil — WTI crude up double digits on the week to its highest since mid-June as the U.S.–Iran standoff tightened around the Strait of Hormuz — and you have the combination that unsettles a richly valued market: uncertain returns on the biggest spending theme, plus a fresh inflation tail.
But that’s only one side of the story, and the other side is genuinely strong. Underneath the volatility, this was an excellent earnings week. The big banks posted historic numbers — JPMorgan (JPM) profit up 41%, Goldman Sachs (GS) up 78% on record equities trading and an all-time-high stock, Bank of America (BAC) up 27%, Citigroup (C) up 45%, Wells Fargo (WFC) up 17%. Of the roughly four dozen S&P 500 names that have reported, the vast majority beat on both the top and bottom lines. The rally has been broadening rather than narrowing: the equal-weight S&P is outpacing the cap-weight version for the year, S&P breadth sits at its highest since late 2024, and the money that left chips rotated straight into energy, insurers, health care and value — Travelers (TRV) jumped nearly 8% on earnings, and transports like J.B. Hunt (JBHT) led. That is what a healthy, widening market looks like: leadership changing hands rather than simply collapsing. Even bonds offered reassurance — despite the oil spike, the 10-year Treasury yield drifted lower on a flight-to-safety bid, closing near 4.54%.
So the tape leaves us with a divided picture rather than a verdict. On one shoulder sits a de-risking, not a breakdown — a semiconductor-specific scare inside a broadening advance, with the 200-day line intact and earnings humming. On the other sits a list of risks stacking up at once: AI return-on-investment doubts, an oil-driven inflation and rates threat, and a market that had grown comfortable at the highs. Next week is light on economic data but heavy on earnings — with Alphabet (GOOGL) reporting Wednesday against already-elevated capex guidance of $180–190B — which should tell us which shoulder the market decides to lean on.
For now, we do what we always do: watch the levels, respect the rotation, and let the tape lead.
Technical Analysis
Levels, Support & ResistanceI’ve been studying charts for 32 years now, as you can see week in and week out when I give you levels — that’s where price tends to settle for a fight between the bulls and bears.
S&P 500 — SPX
Below 20 & 50 DMA — 200 HoldsSPX closed the week below its 20- and 50-day moving averages. Next supports 7,421 & 7,237 (June low), the Fib levels (horizontal lines) & the 100 & 200 DMA. Resistance can be the dotted trendlines and the all-time high. I am noticing we made a short-term lower high, but not a higher low.
For context: SPX closed the week around 7,457, off about 1.6%, slipping below its 50-day moving average while still holding the 200-day line it has defended since April.
Nasdaq Composite — COMP
Below 20 & 50 DMANASDAQ closed below the 20- and 50-day MA. Supports can be found around 24,980, followed by the Fib levels (horizontal lines) & the 100 & 200 DMA. Resistance can be found at trendlines, the last high and the all-time high. I will note the QQQ found support above the 50 DMA, so keep an eye on both.
Dow Jones Industrial Average — DJI
New High, Then PullbackDOW made a new all-time high last week, but closed below the 20 DMA. Resistance: all-time high, then 53,400 and again at 53,500 trendline.
Russell 2000 — RUT
Watching Small-Cap RiskRUT broke its all-time high three weeks ago; resistance is the trendline dating back from 2000 (May 5) around 2,850. The IWM ETF penetrated its resistance trendline and came back to close below that level (296 area). I am following the small-cap story to get an understanding regarding risk on or off. IWM did close above its 50 DMA.
VIX — Volatility Index
Closed at 200 DMAVIX went up and closed around its 200 DMA.
Crude Oil WTI — CL
Found Support at $67Last week I wrote CL is approaching a very interesting level at $62.16, which is a 68% Fib # and there is trendline support at that level as well. The RSI came off oversold levels. Crude found support at $67 — I have some blue support line there which I can’t figure out what it is — and for now that was the low. Next resistance can be found at trendlines, MA and Fib levels.
On the week, WTI was up double digits to its highest since mid-June as the U.S.–Iran standoff tightened around the Strait of Hormuz — a fresh inflation tail for a richly valued market.
Gold — GC
Below 20 DMA — Death CrossGold found some support but closed below its 20-day MA (gold hasn’t closed above the 20 DMA since May). I mentioned we had a death cross. (3,516.1 is a 38% Fib retracement and 3,350 is a trendline going back 3 years.)
Fixed Income — 10-Year Treasury Yield
Flight-to-Safety BidProbably one of the most important instruments to watch. High yields and interest rates are bad for earnings growth, primarily because they dramatically increase corporate borrowing costs and interest expenses. What the Fed will do is the question on the table. Look for my next levels using the purple lines and moving averages. (Note: I am watching yields closely due to all the debt the hyperscalers are issuing as of late.)
Despite the oil spike, the 10-year yield drifted lower on a flight-to-safety bid, closing near 4.54%.
US Dollar Index — DXY
Hit Target $101.797Last month I showed you a chart dating back to 2009. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture to see the bigger picture — and now the trendlines can help you assess real risk better.
The daily chart hit the level I gave almost exactly, $101.797. (Note the inverse correlation between the dollar and gold; as the dollar was going up, gold was going down.)
Bitcoin — BTC
Broke February LowLast week I posted a 3-year weekly chart; the last support dates back to 8/5/2024 @ $50,534. We broke the February low. I do see that BTC has been playing the Fib levels nicely. Past indications of a level don’t automatically mean they will hold again. I will be keeping an eye out at the $29,682 level.
Futures — Commodity Complex
Daily Overview
ETF — IGV Software
Corrected 108 → 85A few weeks ago I wrote: we need to remember software was hit hard this year; if this market turns down then IGV is susceptible to further downside. That seems to have happened — IGV corrected from 108 to 85. Next support and resistance are Fib #’s and MA.
Silver Futures — SI
Support & Resistance LinesMy levels weren’t working for silver; it’s mostly support and resistance lines per prior days and weeks. The prior all-time high for silver was in 2011 around $50.68; the 61% Fib retracement is around $47.31. If those areas don’t hold, next major support is around $27.
Semiconductors — SOX
Below 50 DMA — VolatileSOX closed below its 50 DMA. Next support levels are Fib #’s — it seems the levels are working. Note: be cautious, this sector is volatile.
Oracle — ORCL
Broke Upward TrendlineThis week I am showing ORCL. Around February I posted a video that ORCL is approaching a major trendline around $136 and a 68% Fib level. The stock shot up to the $247 area and came all the way back; we broke the upward trendline (light blue dotted line). Let’s see if the Fib level will hold at $132.14 and $121.76. Next support after that level is around $98 and then $74.
NVIDIA — NVDA
Held 200 DMANVDA found support at its 200 DMA three weeks ago. The last few times, the stock rallied into earnings and then sold off.
Single-Stock Futures — CME
Begins Trading July 27Futures on stocks will begin trading on July 27. Here is the list of single-stock futures set to trade on the CME:
AAPL, ABBV, ADBE, AMAT, AMD, AMGN, AMZN, AVGO, BA, BAC, BKNG, BRKB, CAT, CMCSA, COP, COST, CRM, CSCO, CVX, DIS, GOOGL, HD, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, LLY, LMT, MA, MCD, META, MRK, MSFT, MU, NEM, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, PANW, PEP, PFE, PG, PLD, PLTR, QCOM, SBUX, SPCX, TSLA, TXN, UNH, V, VZ, WMT, XOM
Weekly Economic Calendar
Week of July 20 – July 24, 2026| Day | Time ET | Release |
|---|---|---|
| MON 7/20 | 10:00 AM | Leading Economic Indicators |
| MON 7/20 | 3:30 PM | Federal Reserve Board Closed Meeting |
| TUE 7/21 | — | No Scheduled Reports |
| WED 7/22 | — | No Scheduled Reports |
| THU 7/23 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Weekly Jobless Claims |
| THU 7/23 | 11:00 AM | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey |
| FRI 7/24 | 9:45 AM | U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| FRI 7/24 | 9:45 AM | U.S. Flash Services PMI |
| FRI 7/24 | 10:00 AM | New Home Sales |
Weekly Earnings Calendar
Week of July 20 – July 24, 2026Monday (July 20): Before the Open: DPZ, AMC. After the Close: AGNC
Tuesday (July 21): Before the Open: SCHW, MMM, MSCI, GM, DHI, NOC, ALLY, DHR, HAL, VICR, EFX. After the Close: IBKR, COF, CB, EQT
Wednesday (July 22): Before the Open: GEV, T, MCO, PM, CME, CALM, IRDM, PHM, TEL, SAN. After the Close: TSLA, GOOGL, GOOG, NOW, IBM, TXN, QS, LUV, KMI, CCI, URI, CSX, MOH, MEDP, ROL, LVS
Thursday (July 23): Before the Open: LMT, RTX, TMUS, HON, BX, NOK, AAL, NDAQ, TMO, CMCSA, UNP, MBLY, TTE, STM, DOW, TSCO, CLF, ROP. After the Close: INTC, SAP, DECK, NEM, DLR, KNSL, MXL, EW
Friday (July 24): Before the Open: AXP, VZ, NEE, SLB, HCA, CHTR, CNI, BAH
by Eli G Levy · eli@cannontrading.com · July 19, 2026 · Issue 028