Editorial Brief
Top of BookThis week the market didn’t fall so much as it changed leaders. Energy did the roaring — WTI crude jumped 14% last week and is on track for another 8% this week. Friday pullback appears tied to reports that Pakistan is exploring a path toward resuming the stalled U.S.–Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, the air came out of the part of the market everyone was most comfortable owning: big-cap tech. Underneath a fairly calm index, the leadership is quietly rotating out of one corner and into another, and that churn is the real story of the week.
The crack in tech has a name and a number. The relative weakness was driven mostly by a post-earnings sell-off in Alphabet (GOOGL) on Wednesday after the bell. The quarter itself was strong — cloud revenue up 82% year-over-year against whisper numbers around +70–75% — but the spending told a different story. Alphabet raised 2026 capex guidance from $180–190B to $195–205B and said 2027 would climb “significantly” from there, and the company posted negative free cash flow (-$5.9B) for the first time since it went public in August 2004. Demand for compute is clearly still enormous; what soured sentiment was the bill for chasing. Investors are increasingly asking what the return on all this hyperscaler spending actually is — and for now they’re voting with their feet.
That’s one side of the story. The other side is genuinely strong, and it starts with earnings. Through 133 S&P 500 reports, 70% have beaten on the top line and 87% on the bottom line, with EPS growth tracking at 69.81% and revenue growth at 12.61% — and the commentary from the financial giants about the consumer has been encouraging. This is the ground the bulls stand on. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research is holding his Street-high 8,250 S&P target, calling the advance earnings-driven rather than an AI bubble, even as he allows for a possible “summer stall” along the way. Andrew Fry of Crescent Grove reads the tape as constructive over the medium term precisely because of the rotation — equal-weight outperforming cap-weight as money leaves crowded megacap tech for financials, health care, and even developed Europe and Japan (via the EFA), segments he frames as quieter beneficiaries of AI diffusing through the economy rather than the ones footing the capex bill. In their telling, leadership changing hands is what a healthy, broadening market looks like.
The cautious camp is looking at the same tape and seeing a de-risking that isn’t finished. Jeff DeGraff of Renaissance Macro Research calls this a momentum-crash environment — the momentum factor has gone from roughly the 100th percentile over the last thirty-odd years down to the mid-30s in just two weeks, and history says these unwinds usually run their course completely before they’re done. His read: the semiconductors and hardware names got deeply oversold (84% of semi and equipment names hit 20-day lows earlier in the week), so a bounce is likely — but a bounce that may fail to make a new high and only retraces about half the drawdown. He’d rather sell the good charts into strength and buy the ones just emerging — Apple (AAPL), banks, insurers, REITs, health care — pointing to Nvidia (NVDA) as the cautionary case of a former momentum darling that’s spent two years digesting its own good news. Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG stays outright bearish on chips, arguing the group could keep sliding to test its 200-day moving averages and that it’s still “premature to look for a bottom.” Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies flags the Nasdaq’s break below recent support as a reason to brace for near-term volatility.
The market’s plumbing is echoing all of it. The index is stable while the attempted semiconductor rebound keeps faltering — the equal-weight S&P is finishing the month nearly flat, which gives the momentum names room to sort themselves out, though the longer it drags on the more technical wear and tear accumulates. The level to watch is SPX 7,400, where the biggest buildup in options open interest sits. Market makers had been pinning the tape around 7,500 until that broke; now, roughly a hundred points lower and struggling to pin again, the market is “unpinned” — potential energy coiling for a bigger, sharper move into earnings, to new highs if the reports deliver or toward summer lows if the line doesn’t hold.
Which sets up a catalyst-heavy week where both roads are open. On Iran: if the stalled U.S.–Iran talks resume over the weekend, oil likely comes back down — a tailwind for stocks; if the conflict grinds on, crude can push higher, drag yields up with it, and lean on equities. Set that aside and the calendar still does plenty of the work — an FOMC meeting Tuesday–Wednesday, a Bank of Japan meeting alongside it, the PCE inflation report (the Fed’s preferred gauge), and four of the “Mag 7” — Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT). Jeremy Siegel argues this Fed meeting matters more than usual because it’s Kevin Warsh’s first as Chair, making the new policy framework the story rather than the rate decision itself. And with the Street expecting higher capex guidance from AMZN, META, and MSFT, this week’s reaction to Alphabet is the tell for how the market will greet more of the same. On the charts, the SPX has slipped below its 50-day simple moving average over the past 48 hours and the Nasdaq Composite is trading below near-term support around 25,000.
So the tape hands us a divided picture, not a verdict — a broadening, rotating market with earnings humming on one shoulder, and a momentum unwind, an oil-and-rates inflation tail, and a wall of catalysts on the other. I’m biased toward the tape. I follow what the market does, not what I think it should — and for now that means the same discipline as always: watch the levels, respect the rotation, and let the tape lead.
Weekly Index Performance
Ending July 24, 2026| Index | Weekly Change | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | ▼ -544.42 (-2.1%) | 24,975.82 |
| Russell 2000 | ▼ -32.22 (-1.1%) | 2,930.00 |
| S&P 500 | ▼ -45.71 (-0.6%) | 7,411.98 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | ▼ -199.17 (-0.4%) | 51,947.25 |
Technical Analysis
Levels — Where Bulls & Bears FightI’ve been studying charts for 32 years now, as you can see week in and week out when I give you levels — that’s where price tends to settle for a fight between the bulls and bears.
S&P 500 — SPX
Below 20 & 50 DMA · Lower HighSPX closed the week below its 20- and 50-day moving averages. Next supports: 7,294 & 7,237 (June low), the Fib levels (horizontal lines), and the 100- & 200-day MAs. Resistance can be the dotted trendlines and the all-time high. I am noticing we made a short-term lower high, but not a lower low.
Nasdaq Composite — COMP
Closed Near Last LowNASDAQ closed right around its last low, below the 20- and 50-day MA. Next supports can be found at the Fib levels (horizontal lines) and the 100- & 200-day MAs. Resistance can be found at trendlines, the last high, and the all-time high.
Dow Jones Industrial Average — DJI
Below 20 DMADOW closed below the 20 DMA. Next support: the 50 DMA, followed by Fib levels (horizontal lines). Resistance: the all-time high, then 53,400 and again at 53,500 (trendline).
Russell 2000 — RUT
Closed at 50 DMA · Small-Cap TellRUT broke its all-time high three weeks ago; resistance is the trendline dating back from 2000 (on May 5) around 2,850. The IWM ETF penetrated its resistance trendline and came back to close below that level, the 296 area. I am following the small-cap story to get an understanding regarding risk on or off. RUT did close at its 50 DMA. Next supports: trendlines and Fib #’s (horizontal lines).
VIX — Volatility Index
Closed Around 200 DMAVIX went up and closed around its 200 DMA.
Crude Oil WTI — CL
Found Support at $67A few weeks ago I wrote CL is approaching a very interesting level at $62.16 which is a 68% Fib # and there is trendline support at that level as well. The RSI came off oversold levels. Crude found support at $67 — I have some blue support line there which I can’t figure out what it is, and for now that was the low. Next resistance can be found at trendlines, MAs and Fib levels. (The lesson to learn here: if you want to invest in something for the longer term, sometimes it’s worth it to average down.)
Gold — GC
Below 20 DMA · Death CrossGold found some support but closed below its 20-day MA. I mentioned we had a death cross a few weeks ago. (3,516.1 is a 38% Fib retracement and 3,350 is a trendline going back 3 years.) Resistance can be found at the moving averages and Fib horizontal lines.
Fixed Income — 10-Year Treasury Yield
What Will the Fed Do?Probably one of the most important instruments to watch — this is a 3-year chart. High yields and interest rates are bad for earnings growth, primarily because they dramatically increase corporate borrowing costs and interest expenses. What the Fed will do is the question on the table. Look for my next levels using the purple lines and moving averages. (Note: I am watching yields closely due to all the debt the Hyperscalers are issuing as of late.)
US Dollar Index — DXY
Hit Target $101.7973-year chart. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture to see the bigger picture — and now the trendlines can help you assess real risk better. The daily chart hit the level I gave almost exactly, $101.797. (Note the correlation between yields and the $, and the inverse correlation between the $ and gold; as the $ was going up, gold was going down.)
Bitcoin — BTC
Broke the February LowA few weeks ago I posted a 3-year weekly chart; the last support dates back to 8/5/2024 @ $50,534. We broke the February low. I do see that BTC has been playing the Fib levels nicely. Past indications of a level don’t automatically mean they will hold again. I will be keeping an eye out at the $29,682 level.
Futures — Daily Overview
Commodity ComplexA daily look across the futures complex — watch the levels, trendlines and moving averages laid out on the chart below.
ETF — IGV Software
Corrected 108 → 85A few weeks ago I wrote: “We need to remember software was hit hard this year; if this market turns down then IGV is susceptible to further downside.” That seems to have happened — IGV corrected from 108 to 85. Next support and resistance are Fib #’s and MAs.
Silver Futures — SI
Support & Resistance LinesMy levels weren’t working for Silver; it’s mostly support and resistance lines per prior days and weeks. The prior all-time high for silver was in 2011 around $50.68; the 61% Fib retracement is around $47.31. If those areas don’t hold, next major support is around $27.
Semiconductors — SOX
Below 50 DMA · VolatileSOX closed below its 50 DMA. Next support: MAs & Fib levels (23.6% held) — it seems the levels are working. Note: be cautious, this sector is volatile.
Oracle — ORCL
Broke Trendline · New LowsThis week I am showing ORCL. Around February I posted a video that ORCL was approaching a major trendline around $136 and a 68% Fib level. The stock shot up to the $247 area, and came all the way back. We broke the upward trendline (light blue dotted line); the Fib level did not hold at $132.14 and $121.76. Next support after that level is around $98 and then $74. This is probably one of the major stocks to watch as it’s fully invested in the AI buildout — I watch the credit spreads and so far they keep going up, which probably explains why the stock is making new lows.
NVIDIA — NVDA
Held 200 DMANVDA found support at its 200 DMA 3 weeks ago. There are a few support zones along the way, but I am watching the $181.
Stock Futures Trading July 27
CME — Single-Stock FuturesFutures on stocks will be trading on July 27. Here is a list of the stock futures to be trading on the CME:
Weekly U.S. Economic Calendar
Week of July 27 – July 31, 2026| Day | Time ET | Release |
|---|---|---|
| MON 7/27 | 8:30 AM | Durable Goods |
| TUE 7/28 | 8:30 AM | Advance Economic Indicators Report |
| TUE 7/28 | 8:30 AM | Wholesale Inventories |
| TUE 7/28 | 8:30 AM | Retail Inventories |
| TUE 7/28 | 9:00 AM | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| TUE 7/28 | 10:00 AM | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| TUE 7/28 ⚠ | TBA | Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting |
| WED 7/29 ⚠ | 2:00 PM | FOMC Interest Rate Decision |
| THU 7/30 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Advance GDP (Q2) |
| THU 7/30 | 8:30 AM | Weekly Jobless Claims |
| THU 7/30 | 8:30 AM | Personal Income |
| THU 7/30 | 8:30 AM | Consumer Spending |
| THU 7/30 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | PCE Price Index (MoM) |
| THU 7/30 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | PCE Price Index (YoY) |
| THU 7/30 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
| THU 7/30 ⚠ | 8:30 AM | Core PCE Price Index (YoY) |
| FRI 7/31 | 8:30 AM | Employment Cost Index |
| FRI 7/31 | 9:45 AM | Chicago PMI |
| FRI 7/31 | 10:00 AM | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final) |
Weekly Earnings Calendar
Week of July 27 – July 31, 2026Monday (July 27)
Before the Open: AZN
After the Close: APLD, NVTS, CLS, CDNS, AMKR, NUE, RMBS, BRO, FFIV, WELL
Tuesday (July 28)
Before the Open: PYPL, KO, BA, UPS, GLW, SPGI, RCL, UL, AMT, HLT, SHW, GSK, CNC, JBLU, ECL, CARR, INCY
After the Close: V, BE, STX, WM, KLAC, F, TER, ENPH, NXPI, CAKE, MDLZ, TLRY, SWKS, CSGP, SIMO, CP, FORM, PSA, KGC, FTAI, MGM
Wednesday (July 29)
Before the Open: SOFI, VRT, PG, LMND, APH, ADP, BSX, GEHC, GRMN, GD, FVRR, HUM, WING, UBS, RIO, FLEX, ARCC, GNRC, JCI, ODFL
After the Close: META, MSFT, HOOD, ARM, QCOM, SBUX, CMG, LRCX, FTNT, CVNA, VICI, FICO, VKTX, EA, SFM, EQIX, TDOC, LHX, ORLY, AUR, MOD, FSLR, NXT, AXTI, MPWR, SYK, DXCM, GDDY, VALE, ILMN, ADC
Thursday (July 30)
IPO: JMKE (Jersey Mike’s Subs Inc.)
Before the Open: MA, RACE, MO, SHEL, BMY, PGY, CROX, HSY, PWR, KKR, CI, EPD, SO, SIRI, REGN, EME, VLO, NCLH, APD, OWL, BLDR, ICE, TT, HII, AG, ASX, CRS, AEP, YUM
After the Close: AAPL, AMZN, COIN, MSTR, RDDT, RIVN, TEM, BBAI, RBLX
Friday (July 31)
Before the Open: CVX, XOM, ABBV, CCJ, MRNA, ETN, MDT, LIN, CL, ENB, TROW, SATS, D, NVT, LYB
by Eli G Levy · eli@cannontrading.com · July 26, 2026 · Issue 029