NFP Preview + 03.09.2023 Trading Levels
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
Ahead of NFP this Friday, the below is provided by our friends over at NewSquawk.com
PREVIEW: US nonfarm payrolls (Feb’23) to be released on Friday March 10th at 13:30GMT/08:30EST
Traders will frame the February jobs data in the context of the FOMC’s March 22nd meeting. Chair Powell this week has guided expectations towards a 50bps rate rise at that meeting, and suggested that the FOMC is likely to revise its view of the terminal rate higher.
Accordingly, the bar for further hawkish repricing is higher than the bar for any dovish tweaking to that pricing (the former being likely in the event of an upside surprise, and the latter in the event of a downside surprise).
The reaction will likely be largely premised on the headline and then the wage components. It is also worth noting that expectations for that March meeting will be refined by the CPI data for the month, which is due on March 14th.
EXPECTATIONS: The consensus looks for 203k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in February (forecast range: 100-325k), with the pace cooling from the 517k added in January. If the consensus is realized, it would be lower than the pace of the 3-, 6- and 12-month averages, at 356k, 349k and 414k respectively. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.4% (range: 3.3-3.5%); the Fed projects that the jobless rate will peak at 4.6% in 2023, although the central bank will update its economic projections at the March 21-22nd confab.
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