This Blog provides futures market outlook for different commodities and futures trading markets, mostly stock index futures, as well as support and resistance levels for Crude Oil futures, Gold futures, Euro currency and others. At times the daily trading blog will include educational information about different aspects of commodity and futures trading.
“One way our brain helps keep us safe is to protect us from an awareness of our weaknesses. The brain believes that it is better to be falsely confident than recognize the real risks. This protective mechanism tends to work against us in trading.” Kenneth Reid, Ph.D
MINDING THE MIND
The mind can play tricks on us. Intuitive Trading is an attempt to mind read the market, which makes us susceptible to whipsaws. Hindsight Bias causes traders to underestimate the difficulty of trading, while Competency Bias causes us to over-estimate our abilities. These are mental banana peels that set us up for a fall.
INTUITIVE TRADING
Intuitive trading is a natural response to excessive randomness and non-linearity in the market. But making informed guesses is not the same as formulating a rule-based pattern-recognition system that gives a trader a true edge. Without a rule-based plan, intuitive traders expend a great deal of energy mindreading the market, which will not improve your odds of success. In fact, professional traders make a good living exploiting the emotionally-driven behavior of intuitive amateurs.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
10-03-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Tomorrow is the last trading day for September. Last and first trading days of the months can at times be more volatile and at times have a chance to become a trending day.
Trader’s Check List:
· Review prior day statement
· Check for any working orders on your platforms.
· Be aware of contract rollover dates
· Set a daily loss limit and learn NOT to overtrade
· Understand what reports are coming out today
· Make sure you are not distracted
· Calculate appropriate trading size based on current volatility and account size
· Start with Larger Time Frame charts to get proper perspective
· Understand what your goal is
· Measure your success or lack of
· Spend time furthering your trading education and exploring different methods
· Put trading in perspective and make sure the overall psychology of trading fits you.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
for 09-30-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Don’t fight it. You will have losing days. I have been in the futures industry for 22 years now and never have I met a trader who did not have a losing day…and I will never meet one….impossible.
Understand it and accept it. One of your hardest jobs as a day trader is to make sure a losing day does NOT become a disaster…Our human emotions and our brain is not programmed very well to learn how to lose. Yet one of the key differences between traders and those who try to become “traders”…is that traders first learn how to lose. They understand losing is part of trading. The others, refuse to take a losing day and will make many mistakes along the way to make a “normal losing” day into a disaster. That may be carrying positions overnight when they normally don’t, reversing, pyramiding and many other mistakes that they would normally not make. That turns a “normal losing day” (maybe for an account of $10,000, a normal losing day would be down $700?) into one of those days where they wipe out half of their account, if not more.
Have realistic expectations. Under the statistics of your own trading. Keep notes.
Sometimes we need to learn how to lose before we can excel in trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
09-28-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Tuesday is going to be an extremely busy day for FED Speak! and early too! The EARLY Kickoff begins at 3:30 am ET and again at 6:15 am ET for Chicago Fed Chair Charles Evans. To be followed by Jerome Powell Fed Chair at 7;30 am ET BEFORE MARKET OPEN. James Bullard will also be presenting @ 9:55 am ET. We can throw into the mix a few economic data releases as well. Durable goods orders will be released at 8;30 am ET some housing data at 9am and consumer confidence , new home sales at 10amET., Money supply released at 1PM ET this should all make for a volatile Tuesday session, please adjust your trading size accordingly.. On Wednesday the 28th we have more speeches from Fed members Bostic, Bullard, Powell and Bowman 8:35 am ET, 10:10 am ET, 10:15am ET and 11am ET respectively. Advance international trade in goods will be released @ 8:30am ET, these should all keep the energy in the markets moving. Thursday the 29th we get the all important GDP, the third iteration of the 2nd quarter number with a consensus range of -7%- -5% quarter over quarter annual rate, a deviation from this consensus may be enough to shock market direction in a very short period of time.. then jobless claims should also effect the market direction, Both will be issued at 8:30 am ET . and Finally, for Friday, the equity markets will need to unwind a bit before the weekend, but first it will need to digest Personal Income and Outlays; this report is released at 8:30 am ET with 2 more fed speakers ,Barkin and Brainard at 8:30 am and 9:30 am Respectively. Make it a solid week and remember to plan your trade and trade your plan!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
09-27-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Most retail clients I work with will enter trades either at market or using a limit order (better price than current market price), however, there are times that depending on your trading strategy , entering the trade on a stop order might be better.
Example, you are looking for momentum and making a few ticks and you feel that the current resistance on natural gas is 3.570 and in this hypothetical example the market is trading at 3.550.
You place a buy stop order to enter the market at 3.573 because you want to see the resistance violated and you are looking for possible continuation and follow through if that happens.
If the market does not brake the resistance line in this “educational example”, you don’t get in the trade. If it does, then your buy stop will trigger you long at best market price.
Some traders will take this a step further and use a buy stop/limit. example buy stop 3.573 / limit 3.575 meaning fill me if we break 3.573 but no worse than 3.575. In this case you are willing to “miss the trade” but you know what is your predefined slippage.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
09-26-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Price action yesterday during FOMC and today leads me to talk about the “type of market environment you are trading”.
Yesterday we saw extremely volatile action both sides of the market with the end result a sharp down move.
Today we saw again, volatile, at times sporadic price moves both up and down.
Volume both days was heavy.
My opinion is that there are 3 main types of trading days.
1. Most common is two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for using support and resistance levels along with overbought/oversold indicators.
2. Strong trending day, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using ADX, MACD crossovers and pretty much looking for pullbacks to jump on the trend
3. Slow and/ or choppy trading day – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at volume spikes, using stochastics as possible entry signals and usually wait for a pullback before jumping in.
Good question is how can one asses what type of trading day we will have while the market is still trading….I am doing some work about it and will be happy to hear feedback via email but here are some initial observations:
Was the overnight session a wide, two sided trading range? If the answer is yes, good chances for similar trading day during the primary session ( primary session is when the cash/ stock market is open)
Mondays have the highest chance for trending days
The behavior of the first hour of trading can also suggests the type of action for the rest of the day.
If the first 30 minutes have good volume, better chances for type 1 or type 2 trading days.
low volume during first 30 minutes can suggest a choppy (type 3 trading day)
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
09-23-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Financials: for the third time in as many Federal Open Market Committee meetings, the twelve voting members unanimously approved a 0.75% rate increase for the benchmark federal funds rate – the overnight rate on lending between banks. With this the fifth consecutive rate increase from near 0% in March and the steepest rise since the 1980’s, not since 2008 has the fed. funds rate been set to this level. With two more FOMC meetings scheduled for the remainder of the year, the full 19-member committee signaled fed. funds are projected to continue their upward trajectory with 4.25% to 4.50% the expected target by year’s end.
The Federal Reserve also announced a program of reducing stimulus by shrinking its $8.8 trillion asset portfolio through attrition. As debt securities mature – to the tune of ±$95 billion a month – the Fed reduces its holdings by up to $95 billion a month.
Of course, all this is the Federal Reserve’s effort to quell inflation, the annual forecast of which officials revised up for the third time to 4.5% (core rate). “Inflation is running too hot. You don’t need to know much more than that,” said FOMC chairman Jerome Powell in his post-announcement news conference.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
09-22-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
If you are looking for other reference material please contact your Cannon Broker for lists of solid, informative and helpful trading tomes
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
09-20-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Trading 101: 5 Big Mistakes Beginners Should Avoid Making
Trading Futures Is A Tough Business, But If You Are One Of The Very Few That Can Succeed, This Could Be A Lucrative Business As Well
Ilan Levy-Mayer |SmallCapPower
I have seen quite a bit since I became a broker in 1998. Some war stories to share about the markets, some crazy moves and much more in between. I was trading futures with clients on the sad Sept. 11th 2001 day when the planes hit and the markets were plunging before they were closed for almost a week. I witnessed the meat contracts making limit up and limit down moves over the years and much more…..
As a commodity broker I have observed MANY traders, many of them were new traders, and this allows me to share with you some valuable observations I hope will help you start your futures trading journey on a much smoother road than most.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
09-19-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Futures, futures options, stock options and single stocks all expire tomorrow morning right on the open of the stock market.
Keep in mind that September mini SP and it’s relatives ( mini Dow, mini Nasdaq etc.) EXPIRE tomorrow and cash settle based on special settlement price….Markets can get volatile tomorrow morning right before and around the open.
The September contract will simply cease to trade. If you have not switched to December yet, now is the time…..
Also start trading December currencies!
Would you like to trade futures using MT5? if so, reply back to this email!
If you are looking for other reference material please contact your Cannon Broker for lists of solid, informative and helpful trading tomes
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
09-16-2022
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100 #NQ_FDow Jones #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec. Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept. Euro Currency
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
