What You Need to Know if you are Trading Futures on Sept. 7th 2023

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

We’re a couple of weeks away from the next meeting of the Federal Reserve when Fed. chair Jerome Powell and fellow board members will determine where the Federal Funds Rate – the central bank’s key borrowing rate – should be set.

After raising rates eleven consecutive times ending in May, then holding off in June, the Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points in July setting the borrowing rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% – the highest level at which Fed Funds have been set since 2001.

How does that compare to other countries’ central bank moves.  Here’s a table showing the moves made over the last two years by nine others compared to the United States’.

Keep an eye out for markets trading near multi-month or multi-year extremes for the future price moves.

→  At ±27 cents / pound sugar (March) is trading near 11-year highs.

→  At ±$3,650 / ton cocoa (Dec.) is trading near 12-year highs.

→  Trading below $1.50 / lb. coffee is trading near 2-year lows.

→  Almost this entire calendar year, natural gas has been floating between 2.50 and 2.00 / million BTU’s just above all-time lows below $2.00 posted in June 2020.

Energy:

Prospects of the U.S. economy avoiding a hard recession have helped lift oil demand and prices in recent months.  Then traders took in last week’s report that voluntary cuts to world crude oil supplies by Russia and Saudi Arabia would be extended from September to year’s end – with the pronouncement that other OPEC+ countries may follow suit.  That sent crude oil futures prices on a renewed upward pace with the October contract breaching $88.00 per barrel intraday yesterday and today- hitting 10-month highs.  Alongside the West Texas Intermediate contract, Nov. Brent Crude oil futures traded on ICE Europe topped $90.00 per barrel.

Heads up:

Crude oil numbers are OUT tomorrow, 11 Am Eastern time.