Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1302

• The Week Ahead – Geo Politics & Non farm payrolls
• Options 101: Delta and Selecting Strike prices
• Futures 102 – The Daily Briefing – What The Pros Know Before Trading
• Sugar Chart & Outlook
• Cannon Edge – Your Futures Trading Map for the week ahead!
• Trading Levels for Next Week
• Trading Reports for Next Week

What Futures Traders Should Watch This Week

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

We have everything needed to move the market next week as we do expect increased volatility daily from earnings reports and Government data releases. This, in addition to the lasting uncertainty in the Middle East. The key futures market news for next week’s trading focuses on CPI, PPI and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Expectation (WASDE) report released by the USDA. Inflation data will headline, in addition to CPI and PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment will turn up volatility on Friday morning. A slow down in the earnings reporting will feature, Chinese firms Tencent and Foxconn while here at home we will se a few discount retailers in Ross stores and Kohl’s report. Other mid-level firms will also be reporting.

Is the smoke clearing in the Mid-East and the markets have a renewed sense of confidence?

The energy’s, metals, securities and interest rates are swirling in the uncertainty from a lack of resolution in the attempted unwinding of the Iranian nuclear program.

Don’t let your guard down just yet, the fog continues, tune into the Sunday evening markets to witness reactions to the weekend news streams, manufactured or true.

Plan your trade and trade your plan!

Earnings Next Week:

·        Mon. Simon Property, AAON, AECOM, Radnet, Cal Resources

·        Tue. Cardinal Health, Aramark, H&R Block, Array Digital Infrastructure

·        Wed. Enersys, Aimco, Brinker Intl

·        Thu. Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Coherent, Tapestry, Kohls

·        Fri.  Buckle

Fed Speakers: (all times CDT)

·        Mon. Quiet

·        Tues. Quiet

·        Wed. Quiet

·        Thu. Barkin 7:40 am

·        Fri.  Quiet

Econ Data: 

·        Mon. Quiet

·        Tue. Redbook, ADP Weekly, API Crude stock change, Existing Home Sales

·        Wed. CPI, EIA Crude stock change, WASDE

·        Thu. PPI, Initial Jobless claims, EIA Nat Gas Stocks, Fed Balance sheet

·        Fri. Retail Sales , Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Options 101(cont.)  Why is delta an important factor in determining strike prices for vertical option spreads in the futures market?

1. Probability of expiring ITM (and thus of profit/loss)

• An option’s delta is widely used as a rough market-implied probability that it will finish ITM.
• A 20-delta short put in a bull put credit spread has roughly a 20% chance of expiring ITM (and an ~80% chance of expiring worthless, which is the goal for the credit seller).
• A 30-delta short call in a bear call credit spread carries a similar interpretation.
• This lets traders target a desired probability of profit (POP) or win rate directly when choosing the short strike. Common targets:
• Conservative credit spreads: 10–15 or 16–20 delta short strike (higher win rate, lower credit).
• Standard: ~20–30 delta short strike (balance of premium and probability).
• More aggressive: closer to 35–40 delta (higher credit, lower POP).
• For debit verticals the long leg’s delta helps gauge the probability the spread will finish near maximum value.

Because futures options are priced relative to the futures price (via models such as Black-76), the same delta-as-probability relationship holds; the underlying simply moves in futures points rather than stock dollars.

2. Net directional exposure of the spread

• The net delta of a vertical is the difference between the long and short legs’ deltas.
• Bull call or bull put vertical → positive net delta (benefits from rising futures).
• Bear call or bear put vertical → negative net delta.
• Choosing strikes by delta therefore sets the size of the directional bet in a consistent, comparable way across different futures contracts, expirations, and volatility regimes. Absolute strike prices do not; a “10-point-wide” spread on a 5,000 ES futures has very different risk characteristics from one on a lower-priced commodity futures.

3. Normalization across underlying’s and market conditions

Experienced traders talk in deltas (“I sold the 25-delta put vertical”) rather than raw strikes because delta automatically adjusts for:

• The current futures price level
• Time to Expiration
• Implied Volatility
• Strike spacing conventions that differ by product

This makes position sizing, risk comparison, and rule-based selection far more consistent than choosing fixed dollar or percentage distances from the futures price.

Practical strike-select

Futures 102: The Daily Briefing by Cannon

Every morning, the world’s biggest banks and macro strategists publish where markets are headed. The rest of the world waits for the headline.

That intelligence stays locked inside trading desks, institutional terminals, and private client portals — accessible only to the few who pay for the privilege, and even they only get what they pay for.

This briefing changes that (100% FREE on Cannon’s website!!). Every morning we scour the open web and aggregate everything that matters — pulling from publicly available sources so you never have to — and distill it into one clear, readable edition you can get through before your first coffee is finished.

No terminals. No subscriptions. No private portals. Just everything the market is saying, gathered in one place, every morning before the bell.

Read the Latest Briefing HERE and make sure to Bookmark this page!

October Sugar

October sugar has reawakened and activated upside PriceCount objectives of the June low.

The first count projects a run to the 16.57 area which is consistent with a challenge of the spring key reversal high.

Curious?

Learn more here or even better schedule a one-on-one consultation with a licensed series 3 broker HERE

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

FREE TRIAL TO QT MARKET Center – Access to analysis, tools, news & Much more!

Highly recommended for HEDGERS!

Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Insight for the Next Trading Day! Cannon Edge for August 10th, 2026

Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

• Current price and daily % change
• 30‑day and 52‑week highs/lows
• PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals
• Coverage across equity indices, metals, energies, currencies, and ags

Whether you’re scanning for breakout setups, trend reversals, or just staying informed — Cannon Edge puts the data in your hands before the open.

Built for speed. Backed by insight. Powered by CQG.

Daily Levels for August 10th, 2026

Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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