What the Market Is Expecting from Tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting

Heading into tomorrow’s FOMC announcement, traders are focused not only on the interest rate decision itself, but also on the Fed’s statement, economic projections (dot plot), and Chair press conference. Often, the market reaction to the Fed’s language and future outlook is more significant than the actual rate decision. [finance.yahoo.com], [cmegroup.com]

Fed Funds Futures

As of today, Fed Funds Futures are implying a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, with market pricing generally assigning roughly 85% to 90% odds of a hike and only a small probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged. In other words, a quarter-point increase is largely viewed as the base-case scenario heading into the announcement. [finance.yahoo.com], [prediction…spicks.com]

Because a rate increase is already largely priced into the market, traders should keep in mind that:

• A widely expected outcome may generate a smaller reaction than anticipated if it merely confirms existing expectations. [finance.yahoo.com], [cmegroup.com]
• The largest market moves often occur when the Fed’s decision, statement, economic projections, or press conference comments differ from what traders have priced in. [finance.yahoo.com], [cmegroup.com]
• Even if the Fed hikes rates as expected, markets may rally if participants view the accompanying commentary as less aggressive than feared.
• Conversely, a decision that is viewed as more hawkish than expected could create significant volatility across equity index futures, Treasury markets, currencies, and precious metals. [247wallst.com], [finance.yahoo.com]

Remember, the first reaction is not always the lasting reaction. It is common to see an initial move reverse once traders digest the statement, projections, and comments from the Chair.

Suggestions for Trading During FOMC Events

• Reduce trading size. Smaller position sizes can help manage risk during periods of elevated volatility.
• Be extra picky. No trade is better than a bad trade. Focus only on the highest probability setups.
• Know the schedule. Be aware of the announcement time and any scheduled press conference afterward. Volatility often increases before, during, and after both events.
• Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance levels when planning entries. Consider “stretching the price bands” due to the increased volatility often seen around major economic releases.
  • Example: A trader looking to buy the E-mini S&P at 6825.00 with a protective stop at 6815.00 may instead consider placing a buy order closer to 6810.00, near a stronger support level, while adjusting the stop placement based on current market conditions and volatility.
• Expect higher volatility during and immediately after the announcement.
  • Price moves can be fast, dramatic, and sometimes difficult to interpret initially.
• Expect some “vacuum” conditions before the release. Markets may experience lower volume, wider bid/ask spreads, and sharp back-and-forth price action as participants wait for the news.
• Know what the market is expecting. Understand the consensus expectations regarding interest rates, policy language, economic projections, and comments from the Fed. Sometimes the market’s reaction is more important than the announcement itself.
• Watch the market’s reaction, not just the headline. The first move is not always the lasting move. Pay attention to how markets respond after the initial reaction and during the press conference.
• Consider using automated stops and profit targets attached to entry orders. Markets can move very quickly during FOMC events, making manual execution more challenging.
• Be patient and disciplined. There is no requirement to trade immediately after the release. Sometimes the best opportunities develop after the market has had time to digest the news.
• Avoid chasing moves. Emotional decisions and fear of missing out can lead to poor entries during highly volatile conditions.
• If in doubt, stay out! Preserving capital is a position. There will always be another opportunity after the market settles.

Final Thought

FOMC days often provide opportunity, but they also introduce significantly higher risk. Focus on risk management first, remain disciplined, and remember that protecting your capital is just as important as finding the next trade.

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December Cotton

The rally in December Cotton stalled out after completing its third upside PriceCount objective. Now, on the correction lower, the chart is developing downside counts with the first projecting a possible slide to the 79.42 area.

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at https://www.qtinfo.com/analysis/qt-chart-of-the-day/

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot for Sept. 16th

Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

·    Current price and daily % change

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·    PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals

·    Coverage across equity indices, metals, energies, currencies, and ags

Whether you’re scanning for breakout setups, trend reversals, or just staying informed — Cannon Edge puts the data in your hands before the open.

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Daily Levels for September 16th, 2026

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