General:

Federal Reserve officials have spent months weighing the competing risks to the U.S. economy. Sticky inflation argued against cutting rates; weaker job market conditions argued for it. The voting Federal Reserve governors were widely expected to cut rates by a quarter percentage point today at the conclusion of their 2-day meeting, spurred by a recent downshift in job growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell tacitly communicated their disposition when he spoke of shifting toward prioritizing employment concerns over lingering inflation worries. Before the announcement there was a greater than 90% chance of a 25-basis point cut according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

FOMC Interest Rate CUT

And today the Fed formally took a side and approved a quarter-point interest rate cut, the first in nine months. The rate cut reduced the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 4% and 4.25%, the lowest level in almost three years.

The Fed’s carefully drafted post-meeting statement said the rate cut was justified “in light of the shift in the balance of risks.” The statement no longer described the labor market as “solid.”