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Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

Extremely low volume today, a little too early for “holiday trading mode” but today’s trading in stock index futures definitely resembled holiday trading. I am pretty convinced that we will see more volatility and volume in the next couple of weeks before reaching Christmas and New year trading weeks.

Although I have shared this piece with you before, i think it is worth sharing again as understanding or trying to predict what type of trading day we will have ahead has big importance on style of trading to be used, level of aggressiveness etc.

• In my opinion there are 3 main types of trading days.

1. The most common day are two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for using support and resistance levels along with overbought/oversold indicators.
2. Strong trending days, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using ADX, MACD crossovers and pretty much looking for pullbacks to jump on the trend.
3. Slow and/or choppy trading days – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at volume spikes, using stochastics as possible entry signals and usually wait for a pullback before jumping in.

• A good question I’ve been asked is how can one asses what type of trading day we will have while the market is still trading….I have been doing some work in finding the answers and will be happy to hear feedback via email but here are some initial observations:
  1. Was the overnight session a wide, two sided trading range? If the answer is yes, good chances for similar trading day during the primary session (primary session is when the cash/stock market is open)
  2. Mondays have the highest chance for trending days
  3. The behavior of the first hour of trading can also suggests the type of action for the rest of the day.
  4. If the first 30 minutes of the trading day have good volume, better chances for type 1 or type 2 trading days.
  5. Low volume during the first 30 minutes can suggest a choppy (type 3 trading day)

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