Category Archives: Energy Futures

Markets Post CPI + Levels for April 11th

April 10th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Crude Oil, Day Trading, Energy Futures, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Metal Futures | Comment (0)

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Life After CPI …..

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

It’s been ten months since the central bank paused its rate hike cycle. It seems as though Jay Powell’s motto throughout his entire tenure as chairman of the Fed has been, “The data will guide our decisions,” and today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released another chunk of data: its March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which measures the prices paid by consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services. The consumer-price index rose 0.4% in March and 3.5% on an annual basis. Economists had expected 0.3% and 3.4%. Core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy categories, was up 0.4% from February, topping an expected 0.3%. Now, after strong prints in January and February, are these new readings stronger evidence of a “sticky” inflation situation?

At their March meeting, according to its minutes released later this morning, Federal Reserve officials expressed concern that inflation wasn’t moving lower quickly enough. The CPI report likely didn’t moderate those concerns and the timing for the first long-anticipated rate cut has presumably drifted further out on the calendar.

Energies:

Speaking of inflation, the first three months of 2024 saw crude oil jump ±$17 per barrel – a ±$17,000 move for the main 1,000-barrel futures contract – with the front-month May contract trading to the year’s high of $87.63 intraday just last Friday.

Softs:

After a one-day 321-point/$3,210 move up on March 12 to close above $7,000/ton – its latest all-time high – May cocoa continued its “no top in sight,” rally, closing today at $10,476/ton, a staggering ±$34,700 per contract move in twenty trading sessions.

Metals: 

While cocoa retained its “king of the all-time highs” crown for the month, gold did not disappoint bulls in this market, setting its own new all-time high yesterday, trading up to $2,384.50/oz. intraday (basis the June futures contract). This is a $199.00/oz. move ($19,900 per contract for the standard 100-oz. futures contract) over the same 20-sesson span as the move in cocoa referenced above.

Grains:

Keep an eye out for tomorrow’s U.S. Department of Agriculture’s two main reports: its monthly Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). These serve as the primary informers of the fundamentals underlying domestic and global agricultural futures markets.

Daily Levels for April 11th, 2024

Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Weekly Newsletter: Notional Value, May Copper Outlook & Trading Levels for April 8th

April 5th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Energy Futures, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Metal Futures, Weekly Newsletter | Comment (0)

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1188

In this issue:

Important Notices – Earnings Season Starts April 12th
Trading Resource of the Week – About Contract Notional Value
Hot Market of the Week – May Copper
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – RBOB Swing System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices –

Market Moving Data Wed. /Thur. CPI and PPI respectively , w/Jobless Claims Thur. as well
1 Fed discussion RE: new BASEL lll requirements Wed. AM (raises min. Cap Req from 2% to 4.5% for all banks)
AG WASDE Thur.
Q1 Earnings Season Begins Fri. the 12th Bank Earnings, JPM, C, WFC, BLK all report on this day.

Trading Resource of the Week : About Contract Notional Value by CMEgroup.com

Contract Unit

The contract unit is a standardized size unique to each futures contract and can be based on volume, weight, or a financial measurement, depending on the contract and the underlying product or market.

For example, a single COMEX Gold contract unit (GC) is 100 troy ounces, which is measured by weight.

A NYMEX WTI Crude Oil contract unit (CL) is 1,000 barrels of oil, measured by volume.

The E-mini S&P 500 contract unit (ES) is a financial calculation based on a fixed multiplier times the S&P 500 Index.

Contract Notional Value

Contract notional value, also known as contract value, is the financial expression of the contract unit and the current futures contract price.

Determining Notional Value

Assume a Gold futures contract is trading at price of $1,000. The notional value of the contract is calculated by multiplying the contract unit by the futures price.

Contract unit x contract price = notional value

100 (troy ounces) x $1,000 = $100,000

If WTI Crude Oil is trading at $50 dollars and the contract unit is 1000 barrels, the notional would be;

$50 x 1,000 = $50,000

Now assume E-mini S&P 500 futures are trading at 2120.00. The multiplier for this contract is $50.

$50 x 2120.00 = $106,000

Hot Market of the Week – May Copper

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

May Copper

May copper is completing its third upside PriceCount objective that is consistent with a challenge of the contract high. It would be normal to get a reaction in the form of a near term consolidation or corrective trade, at least, from this level. From here, IF the chart can sustain further gains, we are left with the low percentage fourth upside count to the 4.94 area to aim for (not shown here for presentation purposes).

PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Broker’s Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.

Swing61B Cont v.22 _ RBOB Gasoline

PRODUCT

RBOB – Unleaded Gasoline

SYSTEM TYPE

Swing

COST

USD 160 / monthly

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$25,000

Get Started

Learn More

The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Daily Levels for April 8th 2024

Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Weekly Newsletter: Understanding Price Banding, May Bean Oil Outlook and Automated Gold System

March 15th, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Energy Futures, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, Gold Futures, Grain Futures, Weekly Newsletter | Comment (0)

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1186

In this issue:

Important Notices – FOMC Next Week
Trading Resource of the Week – Understanding Price Limits and Banding
Hot Market of the Week – May Bean Oil
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Gold Swing System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices –

FOMC Meeting next week. Announcement on Wednesday.
Light data most of the week. Housing sales
Very few earnings
June is front month for indices, currencies and financials.: M = June
USA is on daylight savings time – most international countries have NOT changed yet.

Trading Resource of the Week : What are Price Limits and Price Banding? by CMEgroup.com

As a trader, you want to know that there are mechanisms in place to ensure an orderly market. A regulated marketplace like CME Group provides this order by setting price limits and price banding.

Price Limits

Price limits are the maximum price range permitted for a futures contract in each trading session. These price limits are measured in ticks and vary from product to product. When markets hit the price limit, different actions occur depending on the product being traded. Some markets may temporarily halt until price limits can be expanded or trading may be stopped for the day based on regulatory rules. Different futures contracts will have different price limit rules; i.e. Equity Index futures have different rules than Agricultural futures.

Example

Equity Indexes futures have a three level expansion: 7%, 13% and 20% to the downside, and a 7% limit up and down in overnight trading.

When price reaches any of those levels the market will go limit up or limit down.

Calculating Price Limits

Price limits are re-calculated daily and remain in effect for all trading days except in certain physically-deliverable markets, where price limits are lifted prior to expiration so that futures prices are not prevented from converging on prices for the underlying commodity.

Typically, Agricultural futures will go limit up or down most often compared to Equity Index futures which very rarely if ever go limit up or down. When trading a specific product, it is important to be aware of price limits and the mechanisms that occur when limits are hit. Traders also know that it is possible for limits to be reached for more than one session in a row, however the expansion of limit thresholds over the last few years have reduced this occurrence.

Price Banding

Price banding is a similar mechanism which subjects all orders to price validation and rejects orders outside the given band to maintain orderly markets. Bands are calculated dynamically for each product based on the last price, plus or minus a fixed band value. Thus, if markets quickly move in one direction, the price bands dynamically adjust to accommodate new trading ranges.

Conclusion

The rules for each market can be found on cmegroup.com.

It is important to note that traders can place trades outside the daily price limits. These trades will be executed when price limits and price bands move within the specified range. So, traders still have the ability to place good-til-canceled or good-til-date orders inside and outside daily price limits.

In the last few years there are fewer and fewer times that markets will actually go limit up or down, but it is important to be aware of these pricing rules when you trade.

Hot Market of the Week – May Bean Oil

FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

May Bean Oil

The rally in May soybean oil accelerated to its second upside PriceCount objective and now the chart is correcting. At this point, IF you can resume the rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a possible run to the 50.87 area.

PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!

Broker’s Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.

Spartan Gold

PRODUCT

Gold Futures

SYSTEM TYPE

Swing

COST

USD 75 / monthly

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$20,000

Get Started

Learn More

Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?

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Daily Levels for March 18th 2024

Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Natural Gas Daily Chart + Futures Trading Levels for 02.22.24

February 21st, 2024 Filed under Charts & Indicators, Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Day Trading, Energy Futures, Future Trading News, Futures Trading, Natural Gas | Comment (0)

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We have a FULL day tomorrow with several reports, FED members talking and more….

Natural Gas bounced sharply on news that Chesapeake cuts production outlook

Cocoa continues it’s run into unknown territories….up over 4% today!

Natural Gas Daily Chart for review below:

Daily Levels for February 22nd, 2024

Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Gold Outlook, Crude Oil & Nat Gas Numbers Tomorrow! +Futures Trading Levels for 01.18.24

January 17th, 2024 Filed under Commodity Brokers, Commodity Trading, Crude Oil, Day Trading, Energy Futures, Future Trading News, Futures Broker, Futures Trading, futures trading education, Natural Gas | Comment (0)

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Talking Gold Futures

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

A six-month decline followed by a two-month rally of almost equal price movement. On April 4, Feb gold traded to its all time high of $2,140.30 per ounce. Almost six months to the day, on Oct. 6, the benchmark precious metal had declined ±$300 per ounce (a ±$30,000 move) to $1,842.50. Then, within almost an exact two-month span, on the Sunday Dec. 4^th opening of trading, Feb. gold capped a ±$300 per ounce rally, trading briefly up to a new all-time high of $2,152.50. Today, gold prices fell to a more than one-month low, trading intra-day to $2,004.60 per ounce. Credit strong economic data that strengthened dollar and Treasury yields and lowered market expectations of a U.S. rate cut in March. The Commerce Department reported a more-than-expected rise in U.S. retail sales for December. This followed the strong gains in employment and wage gains reported earlier this month and an uptick in inflation last week.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index last week did not persuasively indicate under-control inflation,

but with energy and grain prices remaining significantly below last year’s highs, the prevailing

direction of inflation points down with economic conditions improving.

Heads up: Both Natural Gas and Crude Oil numbers come out tomorrow due to MLK holiday this past Monday and the short trading week.

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

01-18-2024

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

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Economic Reports,

Source:

Forexfactory.com

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Energy Futures

Category Archives: Energy Futures

Markets Post CPI + Levels for April 11th